Constellation 1976's  Instablog

10-y US Treasury Note - Weekly chart: Price is close to probing the Upper Bollinger band at 120.17. Next important Resistanc ecomes in 120.38 - the 55-Week MA.

 

Price consolidates with upward bias inside a rough range between 117 - 120. I'm looking at the ATR indicator for further implications of change in Volatility. There is a solid trend of range contraction and we are on the level of the Average True Range we have seen in March and September 2008. Mu take on this picture is that ranges if falling below the current 1.66 range that would most likely signal trend continuation. 55-Week MA is acting as fulcrum axis pointing the trend. Given the convergence is pivotal 55-WMA and the Upper Bollinger Band around 120.17/38 my opinion is that we might see a further advance and expansion of the BBands which would fit in the trend breakout scenario.

 

The Dec '08 -> March '09 Highs Trendline has already been broken the Week before and last weeks higher high is acting as confirmation to this setup. RSI is supporting the upward momentum.

10-y US Treasury Note - Weekly chart: Price is close to probing the Upper Bollinger band at 120.17. Next important Resistanc ecomes in 120.38 - the 55-Week MA.

 

Price consolidates with upward bias inside a rough range between 117 - 120. I'm looking at the ATR indicator for further implications of change in Volatility. There is a solid trend of range contraction and we are on the level of the Average True Range we have seen in March and September 2008. Mu take on this picture is that ranges if falling below the current 1.66 range that would most likely signal trend continuation. 55-Week MA is acting as fulcrum axis pointing the trend. Given the convergence is pivotal 55-WMA and the Upper Bollinger Band around 120.17/38 my opinion is that we might see a further advance and expansion of the BBands which would fit in the trend breakout scenario.

 

The Dec '08 -> March '09 Highs Trendline has already been broken the Week before and last weeks higher high is acting as confirmation to this setup. RSI is supporting the upward momentum.

There are 2 technical scenarios to approach the present structure of the Crude Oil's trend. However the both rely on the Critical importance of the 200-Week MA at 75.80.

 

First and most obvious is the Ascending Triangle breakout above 75 that happened in October. The upside is coinciding nicely with the 200-Week MA and the measured target is around $91.

 

Second scenario is if the Trendline Support that comes in around 76 will hold the rise. The RSI is holding a steady run above the average and that is positive for the scenario.

 

It is however a curious development that we have 3 weeks of indecision marked by the 3 Dojis which are also spinning tops as the Highs of all coincide. While Gold marches higher relentlessly these 3 weeks of tight range might be considered a warning to the Bulls as most obvious patterns recently failed to materialize.

There are 2 technical scenarios to approach the present structure of the Crude Oil's trend. However the both rely on the Critical importance of the 200-Week MA at 75.80.

 

First and most obvious is the Ascending Triangle breakout above 75 that happened in October. The upside is coinciding nicely with the 200-Week MA and the measured target is around $91.

 

Second scenario is if the Trendline Support that comes in around 76 will hold the rise. The RSI is holding a steady run above the average and that is positive for the scenario.

 

It is however a curious development that we have 3 weeks of indecision marked by the 3 Dojis which are also spinning tops as the Highs of all coincide. While Gold marches higher relentlessly these 3 weeks of tight range might be considered a warning to the Bulls as most obvious patterns recently failed to materialize.

Gold is up 69% from the Oct 2008 Lows around $680 and already 11% above it's previous $1033 top. While the trend has the momentum and the fundamental underpinning to proceed I would like to look for contrarian signals.

 

Just to asses the present moment we have a RSI reading high like in Nov '08 and March '09 - that saw corrections. The Trend strength measured by the Wilder's ADX is reaching the 25 threshold thus signalling the solid momentum of the movement.

 

As Welles Wilder had written there is a good sign for going against the prevailing trend when the ADX rises above both the +DI & -DI. The timing and the money management is critical to the success of taking such signal as we can see such a setup occurred in Jan '08 but it wasn't until the end of March '08 that the intermediate high at 1033 was reached and the correction ensued.

 

Pattern-wise I drew a tentative Rising Wedge wich projects a Resistance around $1175-80 level.

The stock indices become weaker and while the might be some Christmas window dressing I see the exponentially rising of the Gold Trend as a precursor of the next bout of stock indices fall.

Gold is up 69% from the Oct 2008 Lows around $680 and already 11% above it's previous $1033 top. While the trend has the momentum and the fundamental underpinning to proceed I would like to look for contrarian signals.

 

Just to asses the present moment we have a RSI reading high like in Nov '08 and March '09 - that saw corrections. The Trend strength measured by the Wilder's ADX is reaching the 25 threshold thus signalling the solid momentum of the movement.

 

As Welles Wilder had written there is a good sign for going against the prevailing trend when the ADX rises above both the +DI & -DI. The timing and the money management is critical to the success of taking such signal as we can see such a setup occurred in Jan '08 but it wasn't until the end of March '08 that the intermediate high at 1033 was reached and the correction ensued.

 

Pattern-wise I drew a tentative Rising Wedge wich projects a Resistance around $1175-80 level.

The stock indices become weaker and while the might be some Christmas window dressing I see the exponentially rising of the Gold Trend as a precursor of the next bout of stock indices fall.