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Constellation 1976

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Discretionary Trader Speculating in FX and Commodity Futures.

My blog:: Constellation 1976

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FX Majors ( € ~ £ ~ ¥ ) ::: Trading the RANGE

http://constellation1976.blogspot.com/2011/10/fx-majors-trading-range.html

EUR/USD

Daily chart show 1.3850 as a major Resistance level (50% of 1.4555 - 1.3147).

GBP/USD

Daily chart show 1.5789 as a major Resistance level (38.2% of 1.6627 - 1.5272).

USD/JPY

Yen finally started moving after the extremely tight range congestion in the last 2 weeks.

Yen has appreciated to multi-year highs and MOF/BOJ wouldn't be feeling comfortable with these levels, hence the fear in the market with an FX market intervention. Given that premise the LONG side is favored.

One can use both the 76.30 and 76.78 as SL levels - or one could average till 75 if the price goes that way on the assumption the BOJ will defend those multi year lows in USD/JPY.

Tags: ERO, GBB, JYN

Oct 13 5:39 PM | Link | Comment!
Markets falling towards Complacency?

VIX falls near its recent low and is nearing the 15 level which marks the Complacency entry mark..

Given the lows around 9 - 10 in 2007 where market was roaring in the 'Good times' it turns that market has remained most of the last 8 months in a state of relative balance and is going into an even more relaxed state.

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S&P 500 is holding nice gains after it corrected 9% in January.

The major index is trading in an Rising Wedge pattern and current target is around the key 1200 level which is in confluence with the 200-Week MA at 1227.

Both RSI and MACD are turning up supporting the move and the 50-Week MA is tracking nicely the Uptrend. This a great educational experience to have 1 straight year of roaring trend while we incessantly hear of a new crash, crisis, depression... Trade the trend!

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USD index is playing the indecision game for 4-th week right on the 200-Week MA at 80.39.

The technical picture shows that DX is trading inside a clear Uptrend Channel. However in the present moment it is a range play capped by the long term important 81.40/50 level and downside is holding around the 79.50 (Trendline Support) and 79.17 (50-Week MA).

Since the last Weekly settlement was at 80.46 I'd suppose a test of the Support layers in the 79-80 region (which might translate into EUR/USD test of 1.3750-1.38 levels) before DX tests the upside.

Tags: SPY, VXX, VXZ, ERO

Mar 07 4:05 PM | Link | Comment!
Buying value: Long USD/YEN 89.25 - 88.76 stop.

USD/YEN is range trade with balance point at 90.66 with 88.54 - 92 range ends..

Long 89.20 with 88.76 stop.

Deflation persists in Japan... seems the YEN mountains of debt didn't work in he last 20 years. Now we are about to see how the mountains of USD, EUR, GBP and CNY debt will mange to get the global economy back on track if it will in he present decade.

Tags: FXY

Feb 25 7:19 PM | Link | Comment!

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Bahaha on VIX and S&P consolidate for a possible test of 1000 mark As much as I think that you’re right, the peopl...

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