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Moneyman CPA

Moneyman CPA
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  • Why Are People Shorting Disney? [View article]
    A well reasoned and well written article, thank you. One point that most in the
    media seem to either ignore or they are unaware of, is that going back in history every time Disney stock traded above $100.00 per share the company had a stock split. So as the price of the stock approaches the $100.00 mark the speculators begin to think stock split and after a split there is a possibility that the split shares will drop in price. So if they short the stock pre-split and then they cover post split they could make a nice profit. Of course short interests are almost always wrong and I have no reason to think that those shorting Disney are any different. They are simply wrong. I have been long Disney since October 1966.
    Feb 1, 2015. 12:46 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: When High Yield Can Trump Dividend Growth [View article]
    A good article well written, one thing not said is that a 2% dividend growth rate is a greater return than on can get investing in U.S. Treasury's and that is just the growth in dividend not the actual dividends the investor will collect. AT&T is still a great investment for now and for the future.

    I am long AT&T as well as Verizon.
    Feb 19, 2014. 02:29 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Annaly Knife May Have Stopped Falling [View article]
    A well written article with realistic observations about the past and future for Annaly. I do have one problem with your statements regarding commercial real estate loans and Annaly's inexperience in that market. Annaly got into that segment of the real estate finance market throught he acquisition of another mREIT that had been in commercial real estate for several years. Annaly managed that mREIT from its inception to the day it was acquired, so they absolutly do have extensive experience and knowledge of the commercial side of the real estate lending business. For the record I am not long NLY I did own quite a bit but managed to sell out last January.
    Dec 24, 2013. 10:19 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: What Lies Beyond Flat Earnings? [View article]
    Despite the gloomy title to this article the contents are pretty much up beat and positive for AT&T. The author left out the significant non recurring charges to net income that AT&T took against book income this past quarter which is the main reason net earnings were flat. The sale and lease back of the towers is a very positive move at exactly the right time and will give AT&T the cash to acquire more bandwidth and spectrum in the very near future.

    I am long both AT&T and Verizon and I believe both companies have a great future ahead of them.
    Oct 29, 2013. 10:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: A Reality Check [View article]
    Let me start by saying that I am very long AGNC and very much down in value since the beginning of this year. Having said that I now have to take aim at your bullish analysis (I am long term bullish also but not for the reasons you discuss).

    "Income: (2010 through 2012) $288 million to $1.2 Billion. Well, that seemed more than encouraging.

    Balance Sheet; Specifically, Net Tangible Assets: For the same period, they grew from $1.5 to $10.8 Billion. This also looked good.

    Balance Sheet Check for Potentially Soft Assets:(Goodwill, Intangibles) None!"

    Are you not aware of all of the secondary offering that AGNC has made over the past two years? Cash, investments and income all increased dramatically due to the infusion of new capital from all of the secondary offerings. So, with all that new cash available and put to work through the purchase of more mortgage backed bonds, it is hoped that their income would grow dramatically as it indeed has done. Similarly the Net Tangible Assets also increased dramatically. These are not causes for joy, they are expected results of raising new capital. The available cash has also increased dramatically because of the infusion of new capital and as a result of regular payments received on all of the newly purchased bonds, but their need for more cash to pay dividends on the increased number of outstanding shares will use much more of that available cash so again this is not a reason to feel more secure. The repurchase program while appreciated pales in the face of the huge increase in issued and outstanding shares.

    I think you, like many other analysts are trying to use industry standard investment analysis techniques to a security that is anything but standard. The entire mREIT industry requires very special analysis so one cannot look at book net income to determine the health of the company. Instead you need to look a the taxable income as they are required to distribute 90 percent of their taxable income to maintain their REIT status and if they fail to distribute all of that income they pay a higher tax rate than an ordinary company. would pay on the same level of taxable income.

    So, while I appreciate the attempt to make investors like myself feel good about our holdings in companies like AGNC please do your home work first.
    Oct 4, 2013. 05:18 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stop Panicking Over American Capital Agency [View article]
    I do not know where you are getting your statistics from but On February 26th , 2013 the price of AGNC was over $32.00 per share. I know because I bought some on that day for $32.65 per share. So I am down almost $10.00 per share since that date and the dividends I have received to date are only $2.30 per share cutting my total loss to about $6.35 per share or about 19 percent. I had purchased the stock in 2011 at much better prices but I was sold out due to a stop loss order during one of the flash rashes in this stock in July or August of 2012. So there are investors in AGNC who are much worse off than your article states, I am sure I am not alone in my position. I have filed a complaint with the SEC about the flash crashes that have occurred in AGNC but as with most such complaints I have not heard from the SEC. I am still long and plan on holding on for another few quartes to see what happens.
    Sep 25, 2013. 11:27 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Harness The Power Of Compounding To Prevent Losing Money [View article]
    Thanks for a well written and well thought out article. I have one minor problem with you thesis, vast majority of mREIT investors are investing in this sector for income and thus they are not in a position to be reinvesting the dividends. For those who own these securities in an IRA or other retirement account you are 100% correct the power of compounding and the power of dollar cost averaging has been a great vehicle fo accumulating these securities while the market has been pounding the life out of their market values.
    Aug 30, 2013. 04:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thank Uncle Ben For Serendipity In REIT-Dom [View article]
    Thank you for an interesting and very well written article. I will not make any comments on financial data because it seems to be right on (after corrections to the chart). I will comment on the location of Little Italy being on the Upper East Side of Manhattan since we all know that it is located in lower Manhattan and is more center island than either east side or west side. But I am glad you and your daughter enjoyed Serendipity 3 and with the prices of real estate in lower Manhattan the price you paid for a sundae is mostly eaten up in rent. I know that it is outside the topic but have you noticed that the cost of food in general has risen much faster than inflation, interest rates or even rents.
    Jun 3, 2013. 09:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget About American Capital, Annaly Capital Is Still The Best Of Breed [View article]
    I love the fact that your articles generate so much heart felt comments. We all learn a lot from the back and forth banter. So, thank you for hanging in there and helping to continue the education that all investors need. I agree with the earlier comments about FASB re-thinking the REIT, mREIT and Master Limited Partnership accounting disclosure rules. I love GAAP for the vast majority of business models but GAAP does not work for these types of entities. There should be mandatory additional disclosure required for these organizations that would allow proper analysis of the results of their operations as well as determining their current net worth using alternative accounting and valuation methods.
    May 12, 2013. 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget About American Capital, Annaly Capital Is Still The Best Of Breed [View article]
    I think your points are well made but ,lack insight into the real cause of the poor results for AGNC. The "LOSS" that they reported was a PAPER LOSS not a REALIZED LOSS there is a very big difference between realized gains and losses vs unrealized gains and losses. The mark to market mark downs that AGNC reported are just temporary adjustments required by GAAP reporting rules. Did it even occur to you that the mark downs may have been mandated by the company auditors for their own protection and that at the end of the next quarter the comparable mark to market adjustments could produce unrealized gains that will make NLY's income look like pennies in a bucket compared to a pot of gold over at AGNC?
    I like both companies I am long both companies and I believe that both will do well for at least the next 2 years. They will do quite well if the FED gets out of their market by ending Q-3.
    May 10, 2013. 01:37 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Growth Signals To Look For During Disney's Earnings Conference Call [View article]
    One thing everyone has overlooked is IRON MAN 3 which has broken box office records in Europe and Aisa and has yet to open in the U.S.
    May 3, 2013. 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REITs: Why The Dividends Are A Mirage [View article]
    This whole concept is wierd. The facts are that these companies are earning income and distributing that income to their shareholders. They are not running a government sanctioned Ponzi scheme which this author is actually suggesting. By definition a Ponzi scheme is one in which the investments from new investors is distributed to the earlier investors to be able to claim that the funds they invested are earning great returns. Those original investors then tell all of their friends about this great investment so that the operator can continue to get in new funds that they tehen pay out to the existing investors. These work great for the initial investors and not very well for the newest investors. This is what Bernie Madoff did for 30 plus years. The difference here is that the new investors are being swayed by the fact that the SEC has reviewed the share offerings and approved them. If you really believe that this is what the mREITs are doing then get the hell out of them. The reality is that the mREITs are actually investing the proceeds from the sale of their securities in mortgage backed securities and earning money on those investments. The dividends being paid are coming from the interest that they are earning and not from the new investors funds. The author is so far off base that this discussion is actually a waste of everyones time.
    Mar 13, 2013. 10:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney: Is It Time For Portfolio Magic? [View article]
    I have owned DIS since the day after Walt Disney died in 1966 I have made a good amount of money on the stock over all those years and I have given shares away as gifts to my children and grand children. I started with 100 shares, never bought any more and still have 400 shares. I have never been to Disney Land or to Disney World but my children have been and I plan on taking my grand children. As far as I am concerned DIS is a great investment and will continue to be so with all of the new additions to the company (Star Wars, Pixar, Marvel etc.). This was always a technology company and a great media production company. I tell everyone who asks, to buy DIS.
    Mar 11, 2013. 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REITs: Why The Dividends Are A Mirage [View article]
    You just made my point for me!

    "The PMT mortgage business itself will grow and earn more per share as it has been". For that to happen they must continue to purchase more income producing assets.Where do they to get the funds to make those purchases if not from the secondary offerings? Unlike the FED they cannot print money so they must go to the capital markets and either sell securities or issue debt. Since they are constantly increasing the number of shares outstanding through the secondary offerings and they continue to pay out the same dividend per share, each quarter or month, after they have increased the number of outstanding shares where is the dilution? Where is the mirage? They pay out significantly more dollars in dividends each quarter (or each month) after each secondary offering, where do those extra dollars come from? If you are going to claim that they come from the proceeds of the secondary offering then please explain how their asset base keeps increasing in value close to the amounts of the secondary offerings? It is not from a market value increase in the original asset base, not in the current economy and current interest rate market.
    Mar 4, 2013. 03:11 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REITs: Why The Dividends Are A Mirage [View article]
    I think you are missing a very important point. Raise $89 Million and invest that in new assets, then earn $29 Million and pay that out in dividends they are not paying out equity they are paying out income. If you want to argue that they could also reinvest that income into new assets then they would have to give up their REIT status and pay income taxes on the $29 Million in income and thus only have an additional $18.8 Million to invest in new assets not the full $29 Million. If the shareholders choose to reinvest their dividends in some of the new shares being issued then the company would have full $29 Million to reinvest. I repeat they are not distributing equity they are distributing income. I am a CPA and have been practicing for nearly 40 years including 12 year on Wall Street in various positions including Controller of Bear Stearns, I think I know how to read a financial statement and all of the disclosures that come with them.
    Mar 4, 2013. 02:38 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment