Seeking Alpha

Moneyman CPA

Moneyman CPA
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Moneyman CPA's Comments BY TICKER:

Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Why Do You Own Disney? [View article]
    I am long Disney and have been since October 1966. I think it is one of the greatest companies in earth. Their creativity is second to none. If as many predict Cable subscribers all jump ship and become streamers, Disney can sell subscriptions to the streamers just as CBS is beginning to do. There is no reason why I could not pay $10.00 per month for ESPN if I am a sports enthusiast and want to cut my cable cord. If I want other Disney content I can subscribe to it separately or they might offer a package deal. The broadcast network is also available to cord cutters via a digital antenna so ABC and all of its programming will still be available to me and tha advertising revenue should still be their and may actually increase as more people switch from cable to digital antenna reception.
    Nov 9, 2015. 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney Might Want To Consider Charging A Premium For The Next 'Star Wars' [View article]
    Why do you think Disney has reserved the entire chain of iMax theaters for a full month? Do you think they will be charging regular theater admissions for the iMax shows? Disney is now and has been for many years a master at marketing their products I strongly suggest that we just leave the operations to the masters who have been making us shareholders a boat load of money for many many years.
    Sep 7, 2015. 05:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Problem With Disney In One Chart [View article]
    Unfortunately your article is why I stay away from all technical analysis. I am long Disney and I have been since October 1966. I purchased the stock one day after Walt Disney passed away (100 shares). I have long ago sold and given away hundreds of shares received through numerous stock splits. I left myself with 100 shares in the mid 1980's. Today I own 434 shares all through stock splits and reinvestment of dividends for a couple of years. In the 1990's I gave 50 shares each to 9 nieces and nephews when the stock was $40 per share. none of them are complaining that the stock is over priced. I will admit that it has risen a bit too fast in the past 6 or 7 months, but that is the type of stock market we have seen ever since the Dot Com Bubble began to grow. I think Disney is a bargain at today's closing price and I would be a buyer if I had some investible cash. The stock will continue its upward trajectory, hopefully a bit slower than the past few months. Earnings will continue to grow as will their pipeline of new products. As for ESPN, if enough cable companies stop bundling those channels the Disney will make them available on a streaming subscription service similar to what CBS is doing right now with all of their programming. The future of media is content and Disney has lots and lots of content.
    Aug 6, 2015. 05:08 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Continuing iPhone Strength Demolishes Bear Case [View article]
    Let's not forget the soon to be released Apple Home which could be released in the next few days.
    May 15, 2015. 11:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Notes On Cars (And Apple) [View article]
    The self driving vehicle will be a reality in the near not distant future. The big problem will be that the existing rolling stock of standard automobiles and trucks will prevent a major reduction in accidents. It will take many years to get the manual driven vehicles off the roads. Once all or at least most vehicles are self driving the accidents we have today will just be bad memories. There are already companies that are offering to retrofit existing vehicles with some of the sensors and automated systems currently available in top models on luxury vehicles. Self stopping, obstacle detection, lane departure warning/correction etc. these features added to existing vehicles and then the advent of self driving vehicles and many types of accidents will never happen again.

    Apple will produce the electronic hardware and much of the software required for both the current vehicle add on systems and for the new self driving vehicles. They will also use the advanced battery designs and technology to enhance all of their products. If they were to desire to get into the vehicle manufacturing business they would do so by purchasing an existing manufacturer most likely in Korea where the manufacturing facilities are modern and automated and they would not have to bring the cash back to the U.S. To accomplish that.
    For the record I do not own and I am not short AAPL.
    Mar 3, 2015. 12:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Are People Shorting Disney? [View article]
    A well reasoned and well written article, thank you. One point that most in the
    media seem to either ignore or they are unaware of, is that going back in history every time Disney stock traded above $100.00 per share the company had a stock split. So as the price of the stock approaches the $100.00 mark the speculators begin to think stock split and after a split there is a possibility that the split shares will drop in price. So if they short the stock pre-split and then they cover post split they could make a nice profit. Of course short interests are almost always wrong and I have no reason to think that those shorting Disney are any different. They are simply wrong. I have been long Disney since October 1966.
    Feb 1, 2015. 12:46 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: When High Yield Can Trump Dividend Growth [View article]
    A good article well written, one thing not said is that a 2% dividend growth rate is a greater return than on can get investing in U.S. Treasury's and that is just the growth in dividend not the actual dividends the investor will collect. AT&T is still a great investment for now and for the future.

    I am long AT&T as well as Verizon.
    Feb 19, 2014. 02:29 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Annaly Knife May Have Stopped Falling [View article]
    A well written article with realistic observations about the past and future for Annaly. I do have one problem with your statements regarding commercial real estate loans and Annaly's inexperience in that market. Annaly got into that segment of the real estate finance market throught he acquisition of another mREIT that had been in commercial real estate for several years. Annaly managed that mREIT from its inception to the day it was acquired, so they absolutly do have extensive experience and knowledge of the commercial side of the real estate lending business. For the record I am not long NLY I did own quite a bit but managed to sell out last January.
    Dec 24, 2013. 10:19 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: What Lies Beyond Flat Earnings? [View article]
    Despite the gloomy title to this article the contents are pretty much up beat and positive for AT&T. The author left out the significant non recurring charges to net income that AT&T took against book income this past quarter which is the main reason net earnings were flat. The sale and lease back of the towers is a very positive move at exactly the right time and will give AT&T the cash to acquire more bandwidth and spectrum in the very near future.

    I am long both AT&T and Verizon and I believe both companies have a great future ahead of them.
    Oct 29, 2013. 10:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: A Reality Check [View article]
    Let me start by saying that I am very long AGNC and very much down in value since the beginning of this year. Having said that I now have to take aim at your bullish analysis (I am long term bullish also but not for the reasons you discuss).

    "Income: (2010 through 2012) $288 million to $1.2 Billion. Well, that seemed more than encouraging.

    Balance Sheet; Specifically, Net Tangible Assets: For the same period, they grew from $1.5 to $10.8 Billion. This also looked good.

    Balance Sheet Check for Potentially Soft Assets:(Goodwill, Intangibles) None!"

    Are you not aware of all of the secondary offering that AGNC has made over the past two years? Cash, investments and income all increased dramatically due to the infusion of new capital from all of the secondary offerings. So, with all that new cash available and put to work through the purchase of more mortgage backed bonds, it is hoped that their income would grow dramatically as it indeed has done. Similarly the Net Tangible Assets also increased dramatically. These are not causes for joy, they are expected results of raising new capital. The available cash has also increased dramatically because of the infusion of new capital and as a result of regular payments received on all of the newly purchased bonds, but their need for more cash to pay dividends on the increased number of outstanding shares will use much more of that available cash so again this is not a reason to feel more secure. The repurchase program while appreciated pales in the face of the huge increase in issued and outstanding shares.

    I think you, like many other analysts are trying to use industry standard investment analysis techniques to a security that is anything but standard. The entire mREIT industry requires very special analysis so one cannot look at book net income to determine the health of the company. Instead you need to look a the taxable income as they are required to distribute 90 percent of their taxable income to maintain their REIT status and if they fail to distribute all of that income they pay a higher tax rate than an ordinary company. would pay on the same level of taxable income.

    So, while I appreciate the attempt to make investors like myself feel good about our holdings in companies like AGNC please do your home work first.
    Oct 4, 2013. 05:18 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stop Panicking Over American Capital Agency [View article]
    I do not know where you are getting your statistics from but On February 26th , 2013 the price of AGNC was over $32.00 per share. I know because I bought some on that day for $32.65 per share. So I am down almost $10.00 per share since that date and the dividends I have received to date are only $2.30 per share cutting my total loss to about $6.35 per share or about 19 percent. I had purchased the stock in 2011 at much better prices but I was sold out due to a stop loss order during one of the flash rashes in this stock in July or August of 2012. So there are investors in AGNC who are much worse off than your article states, I am sure I am not alone in my position. I have filed a complaint with the SEC about the flash crashes that have occurred in AGNC but as with most such complaints I have not heard from the SEC. I am still long and plan on holding on for another few quartes to see what happens.
    Sep 25, 2013. 11:27 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Harness The Power Of Compounding To Prevent Losing Money [View article]
    Thanks for a well written and well thought out article. I have one minor problem with you thesis, vast majority of mREIT investors are investing in this sector for income and thus they are not in a position to be reinvesting the dividends. For those who own these securities in an IRA or other retirement account you are 100% correct the power of compounding and the power of dollar cost averaging has been a great vehicle fo accumulating these securities while the market has been pounding the life out of their market values.
    Aug 30, 2013. 04:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thank Uncle Ben For Serendipity In REIT-Dom [View article]
    Thank you for an interesting and very well written article. I will not make any comments on financial data because it seems to be right on (after corrections to the chart). I will comment on the location of Little Italy being on the Upper East Side of Manhattan since we all know that it is located in lower Manhattan and is more center island than either east side or west side. But I am glad you and your daughter enjoyed Serendipity 3 and with the prices of real estate in lower Manhattan the price you paid for a sundae is mostly eaten up in rent. I know that it is outside the topic but have you noticed that the cost of food in general has risen much faster than inflation, interest rates or even rents.
    Jun 3, 2013. 09:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget About American Capital, Annaly Capital Is Still The Best Of Breed [View article]
    I love the fact that your articles generate so much heart felt comments. We all learn a lot from the back and forth banter. So, thank you for hanging in there and helping to continue the education that all investors need. I agree with the earlier comments about FASB re-thinking the REIT, mREIT and Master Limited Partnership accounting disclosure rules. I love GAAP for the vast majority of business models but GAAP does not work for these types of entities. There should be mandatory additional disclosure required for these organizations that would allow proper analysis of the results of their operations as well as determining their current net worth using alternative accounting and valuation methods.
    May 12, 2013. 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget About American Capital, Annaly Capital Is Still The Best Of Breed [View article]
    I think your points are well made but ,lack insight into the real cause of the poor results for AGNC. The "LOSS" that they reported was a PAPER LOSS not a REALIZED LOSS there is a very big difference between realized gains and losses vs unrealized gains and losses. The mark to market mark downs that AGNC reported are just temporary adjustments required by GAAP reporting rules. Did it even occur to you that the mark downs may have been mandated by the company auditors for their own protection and that at the end of the next quarter the comparable mark to market adjustments could produce unrealized gains that will make NLY's income look like pennies in a bucket compared to a pot of gold over at AGNC?
    I like both companies I am long both companies and I believe that both will do well for at least the next 2 years. They will do quite well if the FED gets out of their market by ending Q-3.
    May 10, 2013. 01:37 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment