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Today in Commodities: Time to Diversify

if the situation in Iran becomes worse, the crude oil will be up. i do not know the whether higher oil prices are the signs of a strong dollar. but, i think a peaceful Iran will lead a weaker dollar and thus potential inflation.

Wheat Crisis: The Next Black Swan?

seriously, could your tell me the source of "a serious threat to eliminate 80% of the world's most widely grown crop"

What's Behind Soaring T-Bond Yields?

the increasing costs of goverment borrowing-->larger fiscal deficit--> almost nothing to pay off-->higher yields or more greens-->....


On Jun 18 11:55 AM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> How about massive supply. I have watched many countries go bankrupt
> over the years, as my collection of defaulted bonds hanging on my
> wall attests. Governments borrow so much that the cost of the debt
> service exceeds the national budget, so the country has no choice
> but to quit paying. I am starting to see disturbing parallels here.
> Bush took the national debt from $5 trillion to $12 trillion, and
> Obama will inflate it to $17 trillion by the end of 2010, boosting
> it to a frightening 82% of GDP. The cost of the borrowing is rising
> too. Today a 1% jump in bond yields raises the federal interest burden
> by $50 billion. The Congressional Budget Office says that figure
> will explode to $170 billion in ten years. Can you see the same hockey
> stick, hyperbolic, exponential growth in obligations that I do? Interest
> rates will soar to double digits, the dollar will crash, and private
> borrowers will get crowded out of the market, taking the economy
> into the tank. People blanche when I tell them that my target for
> the PowerShares US Lehman leveraged short government bond ETF (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
> is $200, but the logic is inescapable.

What's Behind Soaring T-Bond Yields?

This means that the price of risk is finally returning to normal.
--what i am interested in is the reasons for the mispricing of risk.
1) why do yields of treasuries revert?
2) why do yields of Aaa corporate bonds surged at then end of 2008, seems vilotating the normal situation...

Natural Gas ETF Anomaly - Is It Time to Exploit?

UNG and USO are a good pair to trade from the historical price movements and their correlation. moreover, there is some good news for natural gas, such as the control on emissions of GHG.

China's Treasuries Holdings Decline: Time to Start Worrying?

we have the largest most far-reaching military;
---which mean more troubles, more expenditures....
and a stable government.
--- both are stable....


On Jun 16 05:33 PM I need more cowbell wrote:

> Exactamundo. Plus, with all our problems, our economy is still bigger
> than the next four put together; we have the largest most far-reaching
> military; and a stable government.
> Plus, would it be so terrible if our pushers, err, creditors, started
> holding back our heroin, err, credit, and coerced our feeble-minded
> pols to actually balance the budget?

Natural Gas: The Next Big Thing

yes, i competely agree with you. the historical oil/NG ratio is calculated in the background that:1) there was less speculation in the NG markets than in the oil markets, however, as demand turns into NG, the situation would be inverse, as a result, the historical would become meaningless...2) from the fundamental sides, i think (have never done research about this) now it is very difficult to increase the capacity of oil production while the NG production will increase because of the higher prices driven by demand. my point is, there is a posibility that the NG prices may not raise so high from the fundamental analysis...

However, the oil/natural gas ratio will decrease, however, it will not revert to the historical ratio.


On Jun 15 08:35 AM john s. gordon wrote:

> in comparing oil price & gas price you are assuming that there
> is no speculation component in the oil price.

Where $5.5 Trillion Thinks the U.S. Is Headed

Since much more long-term investment goes into the gold market, may be the seasonality will be eliminated. afterall, now we are in a crisis....

On Jun 15 11:31 PM untrusting investor wrote:

> Sure would not count on that for gold. Not a gold bug myself, but
> from the little I've read this is a poor time to buying gold. Seems
> that seasonality is a factor even in gold and thus gold is much more
> likely to go down now than up

Where $5.5 Trillion Thinks the U.S. Is Headed

I think the question is, why the smart money is so cautious? that's what makes sense to me....


On Jun 15 10:22 AM Larry House wrote:

> Sounds like the smart money is very cautious now. Makes sense to
> me.

Where $5.5 Trillion Thinks the U.S. Is Headed

I finally realized that how important the scarce resources are. In the long-term, the competition over the scare resources, the demographic challenges and the climante change will totoaly change the industiral structure and thus the social investment. That's where we see the future.

Why Central Banks Will Keep Buying Gold

Different from previous situation where the demand for gold is seasonal which mainly driven by the festival and religious holidays, now, the gold market is driven by the non-seasonal and long=term investment. The question is, what the proportion of the central goverment's investment? and what is its role? To what extent can it influcne the gold prices?

Why Central Banks Will Keep Buying Gold

Gold shortage? Yup. Last year, South Africa suffered its steepest decline in gold production since 1901, falling 14%, to a mere 232 tons.
-------------------
Here, I want to know the reasons for the sharp decline in its gold production. And, how long will it last? What are the main productors in South Africa? In my eye, the Gold production in South Africa would not last long for the possible soaring pirces.

There is a shortage in the near future, not only for the event driven demand. I think the amount of gold reserves of the main central banks in weatern countries is overestimated.

Rising production costs have driven the global breakeven cost of new gold production up to $500 an ounce.
---------
I do not know much about the costs. What is the level of the costs before? What are these costs from? I do think the costs are the reasons for the jumping prices. Using another pricing model would make the cost usefulless.

When we break $1,000, which could happen any day now, watch out above!
Agree!

Gold's Summer Holiday

the fear will intense during the next few months

The Oil/Dollar Relationship Is a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Actually, I am wondering why the R-squared changes with a such wide range. what does the high R-squared during 1/1/2007 to 5/31/2008 tell us?