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Dialectical Materialist

Dialectical Materialist
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  • Apple iOS Versus Android: Is This The Turn Of The Tide? [View article]
    Apple had "a decent quarter"?

    It was the most profitable quarter of any company in the history of business.

    I guess that qualifies as "decent". I might even go out on a limb and say it was "pretty good".
    Feb 27, 2015. 01:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ripping The Shorts' Faces Off! [View article]
    With a put, even a far dated one, you are betting the stock you are shorting will come back to earth by a certain time. It has the advantage of limiting your potential losses to the cost of the put, but if you short the stock outright, you can wait as long as you need to for the stock to decline -- as long as you can afford any price increases along the way of course.

    There is no one right answer. Buy a 2017 Put and you suffer if the story is still keeping the stock aloft in two years. Sell the shares short and you can get squeezed out if the stock continues to climb.
    Feb 25, 2015. 07:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple On Track To Buy Back 20% Of Itself By 2017 [View article]
    "what about the stock dilution, this is never mentioned they need nearly 25Billion a year to just keep the share count flat."

    It's never mentioned, because it's not true.
    Feb 23, 2015. 10:30 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple to invest €1.7B in new data centers [View news story]
    Ethics, it has fallen to 133 so far!

    But I do agree with your general point. I think AAPL has been on a tremendous run. Even if it continues to climb the rest of the year, it would be very normal to see 5-8% pullbacks along the way. Or even more. In 2012, AAPL peeked at 90.53 on April 1 and then came down 15% over the next 6 weeks before making its run to 100. It had a 4% decline in that run as well.

    So if we think about what an 8% pullback means today, that would be down into the low 120's. I think it could easily go a little lower in the short run. All it takes is some exhaustion combined with some bad days for the market.

    It is a perplexing problem for an AAPL bull like myself. How to best protect gains while anticipating short term pullbacks. Not sure I would outright short AAPL here, but selling in the money covered calls is one way to lock in some gains. No sense in expecting AAPL to go straight up all year long.

    There's also a gap at 109 that lots of fastidious charters would like to see filled.
    Feb 23, 2015. 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple tops $132 after Barron's predicts further gains [View news story]
    The stock is actually up from 73 one year ago, so that is an 82% increase. Or you could say the stock was worth 45% less last year.

    You can ask the question, "Why is Apple worth 85% more than it was last year?" Or you can flip that question around and ask why it was worth 45% less last year.

    It may be overvalued today, but it is also possible it was severely undervalued last year. Given the growth in earnings we have seen, I think it is safe to say that 73 was ridiculously low for AAPL last February (split adjusted of course). And there were people saying as much at the time while others were predicting more margin shrinkage and commoditization and "nothing new".

    Sometimes the answer to why a company is worth more today is that it was probably worth that amount all along but too many people didn't see it. Interestingly, Icahn did. So did Tim Cook.
    Feb 23, 2015. 05:18 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ripping The Shorts' Faces Off! [View article]
    Cecil, I actually suspected you did have a way to validate your claim. And I am impressed with the creativity you bring to the meaning of common words.
    Feb 23, 2015. 02:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ripping The Shorts' Faces Off! [View article]
    Cecil, you are wrong about the polar opposite of irrational exuberance.

    You could picture a grid with two axes, one rational/irrational and the other exuberance/pessimism. There are four possible states, rational exuberance, rational pessimism, irrational exuberance, and irrational pessimism. The polar opposite of irrational exuberance is rational pessimism.
    Feb 22, 2015. 10:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Electric Vehicle Opportunity [View article]
    Why not a touch screen for navigation? Computer assisted, of course.
    Feb 21, 2015. 08:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Electric Vehicle Opportunity [View article]
    bart, yes, there is a math problem with energy in versus out. But interestingly, some electric cars have used the concept of generator load on the wheels to slow them down. So in other words the act of breaking puts a little power back into the battery. But obviously the car's motion can't power itself.

    Now if there were a tiny nuclear reaction taking place...
    Feb 21, 2015. 08:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Electric Vehicle Opportunity [View article]
    Benjamin, A cable that long would just keep getting tangled around the moon. What a hassle.
    Feb 21, 2015. 01:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Electric Vehicle Opportunity [View article]
    hawk007, depends which god you are referring to, I suspect. But's it's always the one true god, after all, isn't it (regardless of which god that is supposed to be). At last count there were several "one true" gods on our tiny planet alone!

    For my part I have a hard time thinking that if an all powerful and all knowing being did exist, he'd give one hoot whether his moniker was capitalized by some marginally sentient race occupying a remote edge of an average galaxy.

    Among the powers of an omnipotent being would be universal autocorrect. Seems these "errors" could fix themselves.
    Feb 21, 2015. 12:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Electric Vehicle Opportunity [View article]
    Donald Johnson,

    If IBM had never strayed from its core competency, it would still be making adding machines and typewriters. You can find many examples of companies that lose focus and go off in a million directions, but you can also find examples of companies who navigated change and brought disruption to products in a changing world. If Apple gets into the car biz, it is a safe bet that the product will be an improvement over existing autos in some significant way.

    And a modern EV with a computer at its core shares more in common with a smart phone than it does a Buick from the 1950's. This move is not as far away from Apple's core competency as you seem to think.
    Feb 21, 2015. 11:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Entering The Car Sector? Why This Could Be Its Next 'Large Numbers' Move [View article]
    Not saying they will, but if they wanted to, they could do a cash and stock deal.
    Feb 19, 2015. 08:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Expect Another Small Dividend Raise [View article]
    A large group of angels assembled on the head of a pin recently to determine the answer once and for all. But it turned out only a few of them actually knew how to dance.
    Feb 19, 2015. 08:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Entering The Car Sector? Why This Could Be Its Next 'Large Numbers' Move [View article]
    This could be about China, folks. Apple knows that its future is in some very important ways in the hands of the largest population on the planet. What if it could provide clean, efficient, and reasonably affordable transportation to the Chinese middle class? The government would love to clean up the air. Clean cars will be part of that.

    But one knock on EV's is that they are really as dirty as the power plants you use to charge them. So it is unsurprising that Apple is also keenly interested in solar farms. Imagine Apple solar farms producing energy in China that charges the cars the growing Chinese middle class drives.

    We naturally view everything Apple does through the lens of the Westerner. We assume we are still the center of the universe. Apple seems smart enough to know that the center is shifting East.

    China is also a younger automobile market than the West and would be easier to disrupt on a grand scale.
    Feb 19, 2015. 08:32 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment