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Dialectical Materialist

Dialectical Materialist
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  • Apple hire from Tesla points to continued car-team buildout [View news story]
    Scott Trader, I just sit in my VW Jetta and make racing noises.
    Aug 24, 2015. 08:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple hire from Tesla points to continued car-team buildout [View news story]
    I was simply attempting to be humorous while hinting at the fact that the word you wanted was "complement" not "compliment". They want an acquisition that complements or augments them, not one that compliments them on their rugged yet handsome good looks.
    Aug 23, 2015. 08:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple hire from Tesla points to continued car-team buildout [View news story]
    Like telling them they have nice hair?
    Aug 23, 2015. 03:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple hire from Tesla points to continued car-team buildout [View news story]
    Scott, there always has to be some way to accommodate you "Red Barchetta" types.

    Aug 22, 2015. 09:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple hire from Tesla points to continued car-team buildout [View news story]
    That's a really good comment, Jballa.

    And certainly software would never be foolproof. But right now we tolerate 33,000 traffic fatalities in the US alone each year. That's 90 every day. Mechanical failure is responsible for only a small fraction of those fatalities.

    A car that is designed from the ground up to be run by computer is different from a car that has software components added to it. This is one reason I think Apple does not want to create something that runs on other people's cars. If a car is built from the scratch with machine control in mind, every component can be designed with security and safety in mind. Kind of like how Apple stores an encrypted mathematical description of your finger print in a secure enclave, an Apple car could have certain safety overrides built in in such a way as to be insulated from the kind of wi-fi hacking vulnerability the Jeep episode illustrated.

    This is one reason that I think self driving vehicles will be such a big deal. This is not something you add on top of a car and say, "look the computer is driving a car." Rather you design essentially a robot that can carry cargo or people. Nothing is fool proof. But there is a way to do it right, and it would take a total ground up re-think of what autonomous vehicles really are capable of. This kind of ground up thinking strikes me as being in Apple's wheelhouse.

    Also... mobile cars should probably be designed to respond to passengers yelling "STOPPPP!!!" You know, just for good measure.
    Aug 22, 2015. 08:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Averages suffer worst week since 2011 [View news story]
    The SSE closed almost exactly at its July low, which it bounced off of hard. (It was the 200 moving average at that time.) If it bounces off of this number Sunday night, I will expect a relief rally on Monday. And lots of SSE traders will call this number support.

    I don't disagree that the selling is not over, but if the SSE reverses Sunday night, I think Monday will be green. If not, I suspect things will start to get uncomfortable for lots of people. If I had to guess, I'd go with a short term bounce back in the SSE and a good day for Wall Street on Monday. But a guess is all that is. I lent my crystal ball to someone who is telling people what the market will be doing in seven years.
    Aug 22, 2015. 07:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Take Advantage Of Rate Pullback [View article]
    Shut up and take my money!!
    Aug 22, 2015. 02:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Winning The Smartphone Upgrade Race In China [View article]
    techy46, is there a 2-in-1 that is selling ten million units a quarter? Because until there is, I'd say the death of the iPad is being greatly exaggerated.

    And AAPL absolutely is a buy. There may be additional downside to the market right now, but the company is strong and the stock should prove to be a good long term bet.

    Almost no one expects the market to go straight up, but accumulating stock in quality companies over time is a time tested investing strategy. Buyers today are likely to be rewarded down the road.
    Aug 22, 2015. 02:01 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple hire from Tesla points to continued car-team buildout [View news story]
    Scott, You can't really do anything with a self driving car bomb that you couldn't already do with a parked car full of explosives if we are considering soft targets like shopping malls or interstate bridges. And if you're talking military targets, then jamming unauthorized self driving cars seems like an improvement over today's parameters.

    And I absolutely do think there will be cars without steering wheels or with only rudimentary physical controls for service and repairs. It will start with electric cargo containers that move themselves down the road.

    Imagine that you own a trucking company. As with most companies, labor is your biggest expense. And they can't drive 24 hours a day. And they need vacations. Now imagine you can replace all your drivers.

    Imagine too that instead of all the wear and tear on the truck engines, you are using simple electric motors. Less wear and tear. Less maintenance.

    Self driving cargo overseen from a central dispatch will be the first wave of truly autonomous traffic, followed shortly by passenger traffic.

    Some people ask about the liability of autonomous trucks. But I'd rather share the road with a machine that was adjusting traction, speed, and direction a hundred times a second then an exhausted trucker hopped up on caffeine trying to make good time.

    And I feel the same way about most of the passenger traffic out there. I'd trust a computer that never gets distracted over a college kid texting, a drunk returning from the bars, or a grandma whose vision and reflexes are really not what they used to be. When you think about it, it's silly that anyone would be afraid of what kind of software issues might arise from self driving cars. We all witness drivers every day who flat out should not be on the road and we don't cause a ruckus. But people are worried about how well a computer can drive? After we see it in action, our doubts will disappear.
    Aug 22, 2015. 01:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Growth-Related Fears Are Overblown [View article]
    Arnie, that is exactly where I've chosen to focus as well. Right now, at about 15 bucks, it's a bet that AAPL will be higher than 125 in Jan 2017. Wow, I'll take that bet with every nickel I can spare. At 140 it's a double.

    If the market tanks this fall, I'll leave that position in place and focus on a lower strike, but as it stands right now, the odds seem good that AAPL will be much higher than 125 in 16 months.

    And of course there's lots of room to sell out of the money calls against that strike along the way.
    Aug 21, 2015. 07:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's A Risk Adverse World Out There [View article]
    I shudder to think what a freshman composition looks like in this day and age. People thought my generation was becoming illiterate, but at least we were used to typing complete sentences.
    Aug 21, 2015. 07:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple hire from Tesla points to continued car-team buildout [View news story]
    In Manhattan in the 1920's, a police officer stationed in a tower manually changed the traffic signal from green to red at busy intersections based on his observations. If he saw a particularly important person on his way to work, he might allow the light to stay green a little longer.

    We forget that when cars were new it took a while to understand how to use them, how to control them, and how to drive them.

    We can't help but be short sighted when we think about what it means to have a "self-driving car". But almost all our assumptions will be wrong. There will be this period where they share the road with normal cars, like motor cars shared the road with horse drawn buggies and wagons in the teens and 20's (and into the 30's in some parts of the country). But eventually we will realize the full benefit of having autonomously mobile vehicles moving around.

    Cargo will transport itself. Parents will not have to "drop the kids off at soccer practice". Bus routes will comport to realtime demand. The buses themselves will be electric and unmanned (overseen by a supervisor at the depot). This will reduce cost and usher in an era of practical and convenient mass transit. Autonomous cabs will automatically pick up business travelers and take them to their meetings because our watches coordinate with the cabs where we are and where we want to be.

    In modern parlance, much of the friction of moving from place to place will be eliminated.

    When we hear "self-driving car" we look at the family car and imagine riding around without having to grab the wheel. But it will be so much more than that.

    What Apple brings to the self-driving car project is the understanding that you have to tear down the notion of a "car" and start over. Each element has to exist for a reason, not because of some legacy design.
    Aug 21, 2015. 07:24 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: There Won't Be An iPhone 6s Bump [View article]
    Short sighted... Or very old.
    Aug 20, 2015. 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Take Advantage Of Rate Pullback [View article]
    Ernie, you may have seen a while back that PED had an article on Apple 2.0 where a guy in the biz admitted to him that "other" was the fudge factor all of these companies use to make sure that their charts fit the narrative they are trying to tell. And of course like Gartner's claim that Microsoft would own 30% of the phone market by 2015, these narratives are usually created for their clients.
    Aug 20, 2015. 02:48 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Take Advantage Of Rate Pullback [View article]
    "Mike, Because TC does not know what to do. Jobs set things up but ultimately you have to adjust."

    Anyone paying attention knows that Tim Cook has made many adjustments that Jobs was either unwilling or unable to do.

    Under Cook:

    Supplier work environment standards (and auditing) have been strengthened.
    A dividend was announced (and regularly increased).
    A buy back program was announced (and regularly increased).
    A bigger phone was produced.
    A smaller iPad was produced.
    The strategy of "nuclear war" in the courts has been abandoned.

    All of these Jobs era policies -- favorite targets of the Apple naysayers -- have been changed under Tim Cook's leadership.

    Each of these changes has benefited Apple. Taken together they paint a picture of a CEO that is in full command of Apple and knows exactly what he is doing.

    Given that so many of the things that Cook has done address the very issues that naysayers loved to harp on while Jobs was alive, it seems odd that Cook is not more loved by the Anti-Apple crowd. The only thing he has possibly done to disappoint them is succeed in strengthening Apple.
    Aug 19, 2015. 10:40 PM | 31 Likes Like |Link to Comment