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Dialectical Materialist

Dialectical Materialist
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  • More on Apple's Web TV: What about NBC, basic pay TV channels? [View news story]
    My choice of internet providers is Comcast or paying someone to call me up and describe what they are seeing on their computer. There is also using a bike messenger to deliver screen shots to my home. I went with Comcast, albeit reluctantly.
    Mar 18, 2015. 09:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch Won't Impact The Stock Right Away [View article]
    "If Apple really was just offering 2 sizes, why did they choose the standard sizes for men and woman watches? "

    If Apple was offering men's and women's sizes, why aren't they being called that?

    "You must be really delusional to ignore sex parts because you think its the trendy thing to do."

    Are you talking to Tim Cook? No one here had anything to do with the decision to offer sizes that were not gender labeled.

    And in any case, you'd have a hard time explaining in any logical fashion how "sex parts" have any relationship to what size watch one should wear. I mean, assuming one wears their watch on their wrist, of course.
    Mar 17, 2015. 12:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch, MacBook, PC Industry Challenges (Podcast) [View article]
    And the site linked is FUDzilla. Why I am not surprised.
    Mar 15, 2015. 12:08 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon Is Still Cheap [View article]
    My favorite part is using NFLX valuation as a metric to measure the value of AMZN's streaming business. This assumes, of course, that NFLX is fairly valued, which I think is erroneous.
    Mar 14, 2015. 01:47 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Electric Vehicle Opportunity [View article]
    looking at Apple's design for the new Macbook, I can't help but wonder if they might think of a car in the same terms. What of you made a car chassis that was filled with contoured batteries? Just as the Macbook is essentially a battery with a keyboard and screen attached to it (the logic board is incredibly small), an electric car designed from the ground up might be a battery with wheels.
    Mar 14, 2015. 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch Won't Impact The Stock Right Away [View article]
    "I guess you have to be a watch person to know the difference."

    No, that's not it. Early in the design process someone obviously talked about making men and women's sizes. As every knows, that would be standard for this type of accessory. But it is also obvious that Apple made an explicit choice to offer "two sizes" without labeling either one the women's watch. This was deliberate on their part. They could have easily said "Here is the women's watch and here is the men's watch" but they didn't. Why do you think that is?

    It is clear they chose to present two sizes because those who want to view them as "men's and ladies' " will do so. But others (mostly the younger generation) will simply see them as two watch sizes.

    I'm not tall and I have thin wrists. There is a woman I know who is 6'2" and she's built like a body guard. It would be silly to assume that I should be wearing chunky watches while she wears dainty ones. Apple gets this. Anyone still stuck with the notion of "men and women" in sizing needs to flip their calendar over to the 21st century.
    Mar 14, 2015. 12:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch Won't Impact The Stock Right Away [View article]
    Apple is not saying they have men's and women's watches. They have a smaller version and a larger version. Depending on your personal taste and the size of your wrist either one should be an option regardless of your gender. I think that is the point.
    Mar 14, 2015. 12:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Fighting The Battle That Can't Be Won [View article]
    richbar, it's possible some of the "weakness" is because very few people are actually investing in AAPL with the premise that growth will continue the breakneck pace of q1. Modest growth, coupled with return of some of the cash Apple mints are enough to compel many investors to want to hold or accumulate. A breather and even pull back from AAPL's lofty heights of 133 (or 931 in 2012 terms) is healthy for the stock. But the price at the current level does not have to assume insane growth going forward.
    Mar 13, 2015. 08:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Apple Making A Gold Watch? [View article]
    Michael, that quote is actually attributed to PT Barnum, but was uttered by David Hannum.

    The story is a fascinating one.

    Details matter. They matter in quotations and they matter in stock analysis. It is easy to get the wrong impression or assume that because you've heard it a lot, it must be true.

    But even while it is easy to misquote, it should not be so easy to give lazy analysis as well. To be specific, the "heads I win, tails you lose" proposition bears like you are presenting is one that really deserves detailed scrutiny.

    The argument is that the observer sees nothing desirable about the watch. So it will be a flop, because no one else could possibly want one either. On the other hand, if the watch does sell well, it must be because others not sharing the bearish observer's opinion about the product must simply lack any taste, or be suckers who will buy anything. This is an all too convenient way to claim you're right regardless of how many Apple watches sell. This is as lazy as the quotation.
    Mar 13, 2015. 07:55 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Dow Inclusion: Catalyst Or Curse? [View article]

    I think you're exactly right. One very reasonable possibility for the future is a sort of thin client 2.0, where the watch serves as an identity vault and houses all your settings and your personal verification, while your data is all on the cloud. Then all you need is access to various I/O devices around you. These would included keyboards and touch screens of varying sizes.

    It seems a very efficient way to accomplish both access to all your data from anywhere (the cloud) and control over who has access to that data (the ID vault that is your watch).
    Mar 9, 2015. 01:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons From A Dozen Years Of Short Selling [View article]
    loudano, some stocks are so clearly overvalued, they are not so much escalators as water slides.

    Mar 7, 2015. 02:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bloomberg: Apple delays production of 12.9" iPad to September (updated) [View news story]
    lords, you have some interesting insights as regards to AAPL.

    In June of last year you said, "At 575B mkt cap [...] No company has survived at this size for long."

    And you were right. Apple did not survive long at its $575B market cap. Now 8 months later it is $741B.

    I think your comment history is full of similar insight, so I enjoy reading what you have to say about the company.
    Mar 5, 2015. 10:47 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons From A Dozen Years Of Short Selling [View article]
    "Disclosure: The author is Catholic and owns a call option on heaven, just in case the church is right."

    It must be a LEAP.
    Mar 4, 2015. 10:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix vs. the pirates [View news story]
    Even if cable TV were the entire pay-tv space in China, PSound's stats suggest that would mean 210 million people pay US$23 a year for cable. About $2 a month. It is hard to see NFLX generating a heck of a lot of revenue from subscribers in such a market.
    Mar 4, 2015. 01:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons From A Dozen Years Of Short Selling [View article]
    I expect it's a little like the "Don't Come" bet in craps. At many tables it is frowned on to bet that the shooter will in fact lose, even though on the face of it that is a very reasonable bet to make. It is seen as bad mojo for others who are rooting for the win. When someone is short a stock, they are betting on the outcome that most people want to ignore -- that a stock can actually decline in value.
    Mar 3, 2015. 10:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment