Dialectical Materialist

Dialectical Materialist
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  • Apple Fights The Surveillance State, But It May Be A Losing Battle  [View article]
    "Offer two models - one without encryption and one with encryption for say 25 dollars more."

    Or heck, offer encryption for $25 less. Why not? There's no need to pander to the police state.

    But the thrust of Apple's argument isn't just that privacy is a right, which of course it is. The technical problem Apple seems to want governments to understand is that there is no such thing as a backdoor that only works for good guys. Create a backdoor and you are creating an intentional security hole, which will be exploited by criminals (and evil actors including rival governments) who want to steal information and identities. Only encryption ensures privacy. Encryption with an intentional security hole is as secure as it sounds.
    Dec 23, 2015. 07:17 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Management Decisions Key To Overcoming Q2 Panic  [View article]
    CarlSag, that's a pretty specific case you've chosen. AAPL was only above 130 a few days this year and never before the end of February. And there's a pretty good chance it can reclaim all time highs in the spring. You can always cherry pick prices or dates and make up a hypothetical young investor whose first stock purchase went poorly. The argument that it will take several years to get back above 130 is speculative, though, and has not been supported with data.
    Dec 23, 2015. 05:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Management Decisions Key To Overcoming Q2 Panic  [View article]
    Fade and Gregg, this reminds me of 2012 when AAPL was punished for "shrinking margins" when what really took place was a couple quarters of insanely high margins. AAPL returned to its enviable, but slightly lower, margins and the panic settled down. Apple can pull two rabbits out of its hat and get punished because "next year there will only be one". It is silly, but it sets up actionable dips.
    Dec 23, 2015. 02:21 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Management Decisions Key To Overcoming Q2 Panic  [View article]
    Keep writing about Apple, Gregg. I don't care where. Your stuff is thoughtful and coherent, which is rare enough these days to warrant seeking it out.

    We live in the click bait era, and that is unfortunate.
    Dec 23, 2015. 02:17 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Management Decisions Key To Overcoming Q2 Panic  [View article]
    There is no good evidence to suggest that Apple, which uses just in time manufacturing and has had six months to gauge Apple Watch demand, would be stuck with any Watch inventory it needs to clear.

    On the other hand, given that Watson reported interest in the Watch was high going into the holidays and the fact that Apple has not discounted the Apple Watch at its own stores, there is every reason to believe retailers have been using discounts on this Apple product as a way to drive store traffic.
    Dec 23, 2015. 12:17 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Management Decisions Key To Overcoming Q2 Panic  [View article]
    "Second, you hear very little of channel inventory at earnings time, and as Apple has the most inventory of any reseller (i.e stores), this was red flag #2."

    Apple does talk about channel inventory and it is usually below targets with the iPhone. They do report sales into the channel, but their own stores are not part of those numbers. The inventory that is located at any Apple store or warehouse is not counted as a sale.

    Stuffing the channel is a game that only works for so long. Sooner or later you have to write off unsold inventory (like MSFT had to do with all those Surface RT's) or the channel becomes full of unsold product and you can not sell more into it the next quarter. Apple has never had this problem. Clearly their sell-in is not channel stuffing or it would have caught up to them by now.
    Dec 23, 2015. 10:58 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Strategy Behind Retailers Discounting Apple Watch And iPad  [View article]
    Mark, I wonder what the criteria are for reporting a "segment". Your idea implies Apple could just put iPhone in "other" and not have to report on any of its revenue either, except to say it, and everything else, was some total.

    But I think I'll read that doc right now and try to educate myself.
    Dec 21, 2015. 11:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Strategy Behind Retailers Discounting Apple Watch And iPad  [View article]
    Ahh, you could be right. I remembered five. I think the rule is "significant" but there is a common practice anchored to sone percentage that is used in practice. No thought I remembered 5%, but your 10% figure may be more accurate. I'll have to see if I can find what I read about it originally.

    And obviously, if it's 10%, we won't be hearing about Watch sales for a long time.
    Dec 21, 2015. 03:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Strategy Behind Retailers Discounting Apple Watch And iPad  [View article]
    @Ernie Mac "cumulative Watch sales since its launch during the spring will be at least 10 million units"

    I know you're talking cumulative, but it got me thinking:
    We'll know how many they didn't sell this quarter...

    If we don't get numbers, the Apple Watch will have contributed less than 5% to revenue. If Apple reports $80B in rev, 5% would be $4b. So if Apple sold something like 10 million this quarter, they'd likely have to report it as it would make a "significant contribution" to revenue (5%).

    If Apple gives any Apple Watch numbers at all, they will be very very good. If not, we'll have to guess.
    Dec 20, 2015. 09:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is A Better Stock Than Apple For 2016  [View article]
    "I don't know. How attractive is it that Cook puts terrorists before the common good."

    It is frightening to live in a day and age when people equate privacy with terrorism.

    This is the future Orwell warned us about.
    Dec 20, 2015. 01:15 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Strategy Behind Retailers Discounting Apple Watch And iPad  [View article]
    "Personally, I think it's going to take some work to pull in the kinds of numbers the iPhone first garnered..."

    Apple sold just 2.3 million iPhones in its third quarter of availability. Even the next year, the holiday quarter of 2008 (fiscal q1 2009 for Apple) they sold just 4.3 million.

    People aren't really understanding that the "disappointing numbers" being ascribed to Apple Watch are 6 or 7 million so far. I think Apple can sell maybe 7 million or more Apple Watches this quarter, which would be as good as the first two holiday quarters for the iPhone combined(!)

    Here's a handy chart of iPhone sales by quarter:

    http://bit.ly/1mmuR3V
    Dec 20, 2015. 01:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Strategy Behind Retailers Discounting Apple Watch And iPad  [View article]
    Samberpax, money doesn't care if it is being spent wisely or foolishly. Profit is profit. I know a guy who owns a theater chain. He is a multi-millionaire. 80% of his money is made on concessions. Is he any less rich because people are foolish to pay 4 bucks for a cup of popcorn?

    If I were buying his business, the fact that his concessions have an insane margin would be a plus, not a minus. This is still an investing site, isn't it?
    Dec 19, 2015. 07:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is A Better Stock Than Apple For 2016  [View article]
    Bart_sst, I'm sure it would be lower than 35, but you have to account for their $21 a share in cash, so that pushes it up a smidge!
    Dec 19, 2015. 04:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Strategy Behind Retailers Discounting Apple Watch And iPad  [View article]
    The iwatch does have zero demand. But the Apple Watch will sell more in its first three quarters than any other new device Apple has introduced. A few billon dollars in revenue here and a few billion there and it adds up over time. All Apple Watch sales are accretive this year compared to last. As such, this new hit product is important to Apple's growth story.
    Dec 19, 2015. 04:15 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is A Better Stock Than Apple For 2016  [View article]
    Adobe Operating Margin: 18.86%
    Oracle Operating Margin: 35.89%
    Microsoft Operating Margin: 29.73%

    Blackberry Operating Margin: -3.81%

    If BBRY starts making a profit, it may see its EV/Rev improve.
    Dec 19, 2015. 12:53 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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