Quick Chat Number 141. Beginning After Market 01/20/2011 [View instapost]
Hey ThisTime, everyone's welcome here as long as they remain courteous (towards each other anyway... if you want to be discourteous to the folks who got us into this mess, feel free). If you're like me you will find this group of idiot savants to be fascinating and profitable. Kidding.
One of your comments on silver was already referenced here a chat or two ago, and it seems your slant on PM is a good fit for the general meme here. But all views and prognostications are entirely welcome here as long as you don't take offense when someone else chimes in about your stuff with their own take. If there is an overarching principle here it is that multiple perspectives help distill and identify investment opportunities faster than just one.
The seasoned folks here cram a great deal of knowledge and shared history into many comments, so don't assume that every stock mentioned as being interesting is a screaming buy. We're all adults and we're responsible for doing our own due diligence. Having said that, I have picked up ideas here (both stocks and entry/exit points) that I would not have been exposed to if I were not a daily reader, so it can be well worth your time to make the QC's a regular stop.
P.S. You'll need to get a jacket, some iron-on felt, and a couple permanent markers. We'll tell you what to do with them after you've been initiated.
The Metastasizing State-Bankruptcy Meme [View article]
The article includes this quotation from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities:
States have adequate tools and means to meet their obligations. The potential for bankruptcy would just increase the political difficulty of using these other tools to balance their budgets...
I guess I would like to see this idea explored more. What are these adequate tools? If they're truly adequate than why would talk of bankruptcy make them more politically difficult? By the time bankruptcy sounds like a good idea, the other weapons in your arsenal have hardly proved to be "adequate".
I suspect the idea is that revenue generation (tax increases) and budget cuts are these "adequate tools". But there is no guarantee a state won't find itself in such hock that it can't tax and trim its way out of trouble, is there? Does Federal bailout count as a tool?
The Metastasizing State-Bankruptcy Meme [View article]
"I live in a large city and can't think of any service I've benefited from in 30 years."
I'm sure the cops in your large city would take issue with that statement. The fact that you called the police once after you were robbed does not mean that's all they have ever done for you. Their very existence helped keep your property from being lived in by folks you did not invite.
Hmm, so hard to think of another good use of your tax money... Oh, yeah. In 30 years did you ever flush your toilet? If you did that water came from a city pipe supported by a city department requiring your tax money to provide its service.
I am in agreement with those who think city and county budgets need to be reigned in. Labor costs -- and the pension and healthcare components of these costs especially -- need to be brought in line with revenue. But let's not get ahead of ourselves and try to argue that we don't need public services at all.
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
Gregok, In my opinion high speed rail is exactly the kind of not nearly innovative enough infrastructural challenge that will ensure we are running in the back of the global pack for decades to come. Picture instead, self navigating enclosures that are more office or living room than car. Powered by electricity, navigated with GPS and controlled by a central traffic control network that puts optimum space between containers, stoppages and accidents would be reduced to near zero through sophisticated traffic management mechanisms. So not only would your avg mph on any trip be better than most commutes today, but you would be able to use the cloud while you relaxed comfortably and consumed or created any content you desired while you were on your journey. Transportation would become not so much something we do to get from point A to B as much as something that happened to us while we were living our lives. Changing location would become matter of fact instead of a project in and of itself.
While this idea may sound unrealistic or very far off, it wouldn't need to be if genuine creativity and innovation were brought to bare. Imagine trying to describe a modern car complete with its personal DVD players, GPS, rearview camera, and satellite radio to someone in 1910. You'd lose them somewhere between gas powered and satellite. Yet most of the automotive part of that equation was hammered out within 30 years of their time. With actual creativity coupled with state of the art engineering, we could in 30 years circumvent the need for expensive single use point A to point B dedicated infrastructure and provide something far more useful and practical to the way we live our lives -- personal transportation that is basically plug-and-play. High speed rail was a great idea for the future when Nixon was President. A company like GE might even buy that it is still a viable goal. But if we are really to break out of our slump we need to start thinking much bigger and ushering in a new paradigm that will make us the envy of the world once more.
My individual transport mechanism is just one of hundreds of easily extrapolated ideas for the future that violate no physical or economic laws and would simply require the kind of focus that got us to the moon in a decade. Or we could spend 10 years designing yesterday's great idea, 10 years studying and permitting it and another 20 building it, ensuring that in 2050 we bring to fruition 1970's idea of progress.
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
That was my thought exactly, Joseph. When you think new jobs, you automatically think... GE? That's like getting Mister Rogers to head a panel on hip new ways to reach out to kids. Real out of the box thinking there. I'm sure their work will be top notch.
Apple's Secret Ingredient Involves More Than Just Steve Jobs [View article]
If you can't sell for today's prices, you were pretty late to the party. That's okay, if you're patient, AAPL will go way up from here. Net earnings in 2011 will be something in the 20's, possibly 22+. At a 15 P/E that is $330 and that ignores the nearly $60 billion they have in the bank -- over $60 a share. AAPL is a buy at this level and becomes a better bargain each dollar it drops. A Cash ex P/E of just 12 puts the price at something like $322. There is not much further this thing can fall before it becomes a screaming buy.
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
Buckoux, I heard a news item on the radio about the recent supreme court ruling about background checks. Both the reporter and the analyst said the SC had ruled that "government has the right" to perform background checks of private contractors working for government. It gave me some appreciation for the distinction you are drawing here (though I think you have an uphill battle). In point of fact "government" has no rights. The right of the people to form their own government is paramount, but that government only has "powers". I appreciate the distinction and believe it is worthwhile to describe the difference while there still is one left.
Surprisingly, Scalia and Thomas, in a consenting opinion, suggested there was no such thing as an "individual right to privacy". The court simply "assumed" there was and didn't rule one way or the other. I find this to be potentially dramatic.
Quick Chat Number 140. Beginning After Market 01/18/2011 [View instapost]
I hear what you're saying, Maya. When I lived in Holyoke, MA. for a short and uncomfortable time, the budget was so bad they had to close the pools and libraries and some fire stations. Now the argument could be made that cops are more important than pools.... except for the fact that the large population of idle teen males had no way too cool their jets. So predictably they wandered the streets and got into mischief, sometimes minor, sometimes more severe. Law enforcement would have preferred the pools stay open. Clinton got some grief for his "midnight basketball" but it is a fact that when you give teens something to do they are less likely to do stupid things out of boredom (or to hang out with those bad seeds who are going to do stupid things no matter what).
The point is it is a pity it comes to that -- that budgets are so poorly mismanaged and labor costs are allowed to climb so high -- that when the day of reckoning comes, you have to cut out the things that a beneficial government provides like libraries and pools. Austerity is long overdue and lots of otherwise sensible programs will not be practical. This will keep increasingly strained police forces very busy. A heck of way to manage a budget. If cities were managed more like sensible businesses, projects would be paid for on a bang-for-buck investment basis, not on vote buying job protection or political expedience.
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
Even Supreme Court scholars use the colloquial meaning of the word "right" when discussing things like "does the school have the right to..." so I don't see the value of drawing that distinction in this case when the phrase "what right does so and so have..." is clearly a colloquialism.
"James Madison did not play fast and loose with the English language..."
Look at my photo. Do I look like James Madison to you? If my words will ever be subject to the approval of 9 out of 13 states, I will endeavor to choose them more carefully.
Quick Chat Number 139. Beginning 01/17/2011 [View instapost]
People used to live and die within 15 miles of where they were born, so I don't mind not travelling. And anyway, lots of folks come to Vermont when they want to try to forget what billboards and sky scrapers look like, so it's a great state to be confined to. We have nasty winters here, but that's just to scare away the faint of heart. We earn our spring days with arthritis and frost bite. But I like the quiet. I drove home from my brother's place a while back at 3:00 am. I drove for 25 minutes before I saw another car on the road headed in either direction. You can't get that kind of solitude many places anymore.
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
Maybe the farmers should have to pay the fishers for what their agricultural run-off does to their productivity and jobs? See, it's not always about hugging trees (though I know lots of loggers who owe their livelihood to trees). When the chemicals used in some farm operations hit the water, they affect the things that grow there. Lots of commercial and sport fishermen, who would hardly describe themselves as tree huggers, are in support of making sure our waterways stay clean enough for the fish.
Quick Chat Number 141. Beginning After Market 01/20/2011 [View instapost]
One of your comments on silver was already referenced here a chat or two ago, and it seems your slant on PM is a good fit for the general meme here. But all views and prognostications are entirely welcome here as long as you don't take offense when someone else chimes in about your stuff with their own take. If there is an overarching principle here it is that multiple perspectives help distill and identify investment opportunities faster than just one.
The seasoned folks here cram a great deal of knowledge and shared history into many comments, so don't assume that every stock mentioned as being interesting is a screaming buy. We're all adults and we're responsible for doing our own due diligence. Having said that, I have picked up ideas here (both stocks and entry/exit points) that I would not have been exposed to if I were not a daily reader, so it can be well worth your time to make the QC's a regular stop.
P.S. You'll need to get a jacket, some iron-on felt, and a couple permanent markers. We'll tell you what to do with them after you've been initiated.
PPS ignore that last part.
The Metastasizing State-Bankruptcy Meme [View article]
States have adequate tools and means to meet their obligations. The potential for bankruptcy would just increase the political difficulty of using these other tools to balance their budgets...
I guess I would like to see this idea explored more. What are these adequate tools? If they're truly adequate than why would talk of bankruptcy make them more politically difficult? By the time bankruptcy sounds like a good idea, the other weapons in your arsenal have hardly proved to be "adequate".
I suspect the idea is that revenue generation (tax increases) and budget cuts are these "adequate tools". But there is no guarantee a state won't find itself in such hock that it can't tax and trim its way out of trouble, is there? Does Federal bailout count as a tool?
The Metastasizing State-Bankruptcy Meme [View article]
I'm sure the cops in your large city would take issue with that statement. The fact that you called the police once after you were robbed does not mean that's all they have ever done for you. Their very existence helped keep your property from being lived in by folks you did not invite.
Hmm, so hard to think of another good use of your tax money... Oh, yeah. In 30 years did you ever flush your toilet? If you did that water came from a city pipe supported by a city department requiring your tax money to provide its service.
I am in agreement with those who think city and county budgets need to be reigned in. Labor costs -- and the pension and healthcare components of these costs especially -- need to be brought in line with revenue. But let's not get ahead of ourselves and try to argue that we don't need public services at all.
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
While this idea may sound unrealistic or very far off, it wouldn't need to be if genuine creativity and innovation were brought to bare. Imagine trying to describe a modern car complete with its personal DVD players, GPS, rearview camera, and satellite radio to someone in 1910. You'd lose them somewhere between gas powered and satellite. Yet most of the automotive part of that equation was hammered out within 30 years of their time. With actual creativity coupled with state of the art engineering, we could in 30 years circumvent the need for expensive single use point A to point B dedicated infrastructure and provide something far more useful and practical to the way we live our lives -- personal transportation that is basically plug-and-play. High speed rail was a great idea for the future when Nixon was President. A company like GE might even buy that it is still a viable goal. But if we are really to break out of our slump we need to start thinking much bigger and ushering in a new paradigm that will make us the envy of the world once more.
My individual transport mechanism is just one of hundreds of easily extrapolated ideas for the future that violate no physical or economic laws and would simply require the kind of focus that got us to the moon in a decade. Or we could spend 10 years designing yesterday's great idea, 10 years studying and permitting it and another 20 building it, ensuring that in 2050 we bring to fruition 1970's idea of progress.
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
Apple's Secret Ingredient Involves More Than Just Steve Jobs [View article]
Quick Chat Number 140. Beginning After Market 01/18/2011 [View instapost]
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
Surprisingly, Scalia and Thomas, in a consenting opinion, suggested there was no such thing as an "individual right to privacy". The court simply "assumed" there was and didn't rule one way or the other. I find this to be potentially dramatic.
Quick Chat Number 140. Beginning After Market 01/18/2011 [View instapost]
Quick Chat Number 140. Beginning After Market 01/18/2011 [View instapost]
The point is it is a pity it comes to that -- that budgets are so poorly mismanaged and labor costs are allowed to climb so high -- that when the day of reckoning comes, you have to cut out the things that a beneficial government provides like libraries and pools. Austerity is long overdue and lots of otherwise sensible programs will not be practical. This will keep increasingly strained police forces very busy. A heck of way to manage a budget. If cities were managed more like sensible businesses, projects would be paid for on a bang-for-buck investment basis, not on vote buying job protection or political expedience.
Quick Chat Number 139. Beginning 01/17/2011 [View instapost]
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
"James Madison did not play fast and loose with the English language..."
Look at my photo. Do I look like James Madison to you? If my words will ever be subject to the approval of 9 out of 13 states, I will endeavor to choose them more carefully.
Quick Chat Number 139. Beginning 01/17/2011 [View instapost]
Quick Chat Number 139. Beginning 01/17/2011 [View instapost]
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]