I get it at work (where I am still running IE 6), when there about 80 or more messages in a thread. I run Safari at home on Windows XP and do not get the message, though sometimes the page takes an usually long time to load at 110+ messages.
Apple: One Last Pullback and Then It's Up, Up and Away [View article]
Yes, good work Andy. But to be honest, anyone who understands Apple has not been surprised by any of this, with the possible exception of the fact that it did not get to $300 sooner. This is when it gets interesting...
I expected a USD bump mid-month with a decline in metals as well, at least for the short run, and it looks like a very bad call.
But I still am curious as to how long stocks and commodities can both keep going up. They are both influenced by the dollar, of course, but this is just not normal. If the only thing propelling both these markets is expectations regarding QE2, this will end with a bang. It's still musical chairs. They haven't added any chairs, but they have turned up the music.
I don't know... It took me thirty something years to stop thinking with just the one... Four sounds like it has the capacity for a whole lot of mischief.
Curses, you've deciphered the math! On the bright side "hundreds of millions of jobs" will be created by this new industry, which comes out to.... oh.. 20 jobs.
Well the sun will still be hear for another billion years, so give it time. Some technologies start slower than others. In a couple hundred million years, you are going to look pretty foolish for not getting in on the ground floor. Just sayin'...
7x more expensive, so like a cab is to a bus or a limo is to a cab? When I eat out, I only eat at places that are just 7 times more expensive than pizza hut. Oh look, that flat screen is only 7 times more expensive then this one. I'm getting the hang of this.
What We'll Do After Apple Announces Blowout Quarter [View article]
Maybe, maybe not. I see IBM's dividend is 1.9%, so if we expected Apple to be priced the same, we might assume the same dividend. But I was basing my comment on the fact that it could pay out $9 a share for 5 years and still have money in the bank (and of course it would be adding to this bank each year, since it's dividend was coming from cash already on hand). I know that is not the way it would actually happen, accounting wise, but 5 years worth of dividends in the bank without touching your income suggests to me $9 would be doable for many years. But if we used IBM's 1.9% we'd get $5.80 a share, which you have to agree would be much more managable. I do agree that wouldn't do as much to make their shares attractive, but if we're trying to compare Apple's to IBM's then that is what we have.
What We'll Do After Apple Announces Blowout Quarter [View article]
Normally I say, "Time will tell." But in this case we may never know. It would take a sudden slowdown of Apple for us to test these hypotheses. And if Apple is able to achieve around $22 in earnings by the time this slowdown occurs, then trading at IBM's multiple of 13 puts it at $286 a share. Not a lot of downside.
If you assume no growth in earnings beyond this coming quarter, you come up with something like 16*13 = $208 a share, but I do not know anyone calling for zero growth of Apple earnings in 2011.
IBM has $26B in debt while Apple has zero. I think the market would add in the $50B in cash and produce something closer to $250 representing a cash discounted P/E of 13 on $16 in earnings. That is a 15.5% decline from today, but that represents a really bad scenario, so I feel okay with that level of risk.
(BTW I am not the one thumbing you down, as I think you are raising valid points).
What We'll Do After Apple Announces Blowout Quarter [View article]
You could make that case. And the marketplace would decide whether you were right. I think it has gotten to the point where smartphones are sufficiently usable that mass consumers have a wide range of choices.
Regarding perception versus usability, they may be one and the same when it comes to the marketplace. If folks think something is complicated, it might as well be. Having used AOL in several of its incarnations, I can attest that it was not simpler to use than other services, in fact by dumbing down settings and options, it was in some cases harder to use than its competitors. But the perception of its user friendliness was a major contributer to its adoption. Certainly its installer was idiot proof and I guess that is what you need to make sure your product is adopted to begin with.
But the geeks I have known through the years, and there have been many, have always preferred off-brand. They build Linux systems from parts, they don't buy a Dell with Windows pre-installed. As such, geeks do not lead the market. They drive tech adoption in an important way, but they aren't brand Kingmakers.
What We'll Do After Apple Announces Blowout Quarter [View article]
"I see this pattern over and over again constantly in the technology world. Geeks will get into something years before the mainstream and are the ultimate early adopters and indicate where the future lies."
Yes, you're right. Geeks are early adopters of products that will not be accepted by the mainstream unless they are simplified. I used the early BBS's over my phone line too. But millions of Americans did not follow until AOL came and made it consumer friendly.
The genius of Apple's design is that it is robust enough for all but the most discerning geek (who wants to root his phone and play with it like a good geek does), and yet it has mass appeal for the millions of consumers who do not look at the world the way the geek does.
The moral to the story is that consumer success is not predicted by geek behavior. It may suggest something about what the future will look like once it is simplified enough for the masses, but geeks are not mass market indicators, especially in relation to branding.
What We'll Do After Apple Announces Blowout Quarter [View article]
You're right, Apple is all about growth. But those who argue that the growth is about to end need to look at what would actually happen if it did end (or slow dramatically), that's all I'm saying. And $9B a year for a 3% dividend is not that much money for a company with Apple's revenue and war chest. Because let's not forget, we're talking about revenue GROWTH trailing off, not revenue disappearing altogether.
I agree with Jobs that the money is better put to use for Apple's continued growth and I've never agreed with those who call for a "return of shareholders' money". I personally think Apple has a lot of growth ahead of it. But when folks are talking downside risk, I think the backstop of a dividend needs to be considered.
What We'll Do After Apple Announces Blowout Quarter [View article]
There is one important limiter to downside risk in AAPL right now, I think. If the company suddenly had slowing revenue growth (or indeed when the revenue growth does finally start slowing), I think Apple would declare a dividend. They are approaching $50B in cash and short term assets and will certainly be there soon. They are currently growing like gangbusters, but no company can grow to the sky. So like so many other companies before them, they can declare a healthy dividend and enter the next phase of their stock life. I am not saying this will happen tomorrow, but even if it did, don't you think this would help prop up their stock price? I do not worry about the floor collapsing underneath the stock of a company that has $50B to land cushion its fall.
I am not saying "buy this stock for the dividend that has not been declared" but rather "buy this stock knowing that if things suddenly go very wrong, it is likely a dividend will help buttress the share price."
OG's Quick Chat # 107 - 10/12/2010 [View instapost]
Apple: One Last Pullback and Then It's Up, Up and Away [View article]
OG's Quick Chat # 107 - 10/12/2010 [View instapost]
I expected a USD bump mid-month with a decline in metals as well, at least for the short run, and it looks like a very bad call.
But I still am curious as to how long stocks and commodities can both keep going up. They are both influenced by the dollar, of course, but this is just not normal. If the only thing propelling both these markets is expectations regarding QE2, this will end with a bang. It's still musical chairs. They haven't added any chairs, but they have turned up the music.
OG's Quick Chat # 107 - 10/12/2010 [View instapost]
OG's Quick Chat # 107 - 10/12/2010 [View instapost]
OG's Quick Chat # 107 - 10/12/2010 [View instapost]
OG's Quick Chat # 107 - 10/12/2010 [View instapost]
OG's Quick Chat # 107 - 10/12/2010 [View instapost]
What We'll Do After Apple Announces Blowout Quarter [View article]
What We'll Do After Apple Announces Blowout Quarter [View article]
If you assume no growth in earnings beyond this coming quarter, you come up with something like 16*13 = $208 a share, but I do not know anyone calling for zero growth of Apple earnings in 2011.
IBM has $26B in debt while Apple has zero. I think the market would add in the $50B in cash and produce something closer to $250 representing a cash discounted P/E of 13 on $16 in earnings. That is a 15.5% decline from today, but that represents a really bad scenario, so I feel okay with that level of risk.
(BTW I am not the one thumbing you down, as I think you are raising valid points).
What We'll Do After Apple Announces Blowout Quarter [View article]
Regarding perception versus usability, they may be one and the same when it comes to the marketplace. If folks think something is complicated, it might as well be. Having used AOL in several of its incarnations, I can attest that it was not simpler to use than other services, in fact by dumbing down settings and options, it was in some cases harder to use than its competitors. But the perception of its user friendliness was a major contributer to its adoption. Certainly its installer was idiot proof and I guess that is what you need to make sure your product is adopted to begin with.
But the geeks I have known through the years, and there have been many, have always preferred off-brand. They build Linux systems from parts, they don't buy a Dell with Windows pre-installed. As such, geeks do not lead the market. They drive tech adoption in an important way, but they aren't brand Kingmakers.
What We'll Do After Apple Announces Blowout Quarter [View article]
Yes, you're right. Geeks are early adopters of products that will not be accepted by the mainstream unless they are simplified. I used the early BBS's over my phone line too. But millions of Americans did not follow until AOL came and made it consumer friendly.
The genius of Apple's design is that it is robust enough for all but the most discerning geek (who wants to root his phone and play with it like a good geek does), and yet it has mass appeal for the millions of consumers who do not look at the world the way the geek does.
The moral to the story is that consumer success is not predicted by geek behavior. It may suggest something about what the future will look like once it is simplified enough for the masses, but geeks are not mass market indicators, especially in relation to branding.
What We'll Do After Apple Announces Blowout Quarter [View article]
I agree with Jobs that the money is better put to use for Apple's continued growth and I've never agreed with those who call for a "return of shareholders' money". I personally think Apple has a lot of growth ahead of it. But when folks are talking downside risk, I think the backstop of a dividend needs to be considered.
What We'll Do After Apple Announces Blowout Quarter [View article]
What We'll Do After Apple Announces Blowout Quarter [View article]
I am not saying "buy this stock for the dividend that has not been declared" but rather "buy this stock knowing that if things suddenly go very wrong, it is likely a dividend will help buttress the share price."