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Dialectical Materialist

Dialectical Materialist
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  • Apple Is Winning The Smartphone Upgrade Race In China [View article]
    techy46, is there a 2-in-1 that is selling ten million units a quarter? Because until there is, I'd say the death of the iPad is being greatly exaggerated.

    And AAPL absolutely is a buy. There may be additional downside to the market right now, but the company is strong and the stock should prove to be a good long term bet.

    Almost no one expects the market to go straight up, but accumulating stock in quality companies over time is a time tested investing strategy. Buyers today are likely to be rewarded down the road.
    Aug 22, 2015. 02:01 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple hire from Tesla points to continued car-team buildout [View news story]
    Scott, You can't really do anything with a self driving car bomb that you couldn't already do with a parked car full of explosives if we are considering soft targets like shopping malls or interstate bridges. And if you're talking military targets, then jamming unauthorized self driving cars seems like an improvement over today's parameters.

    And I absolutely do think there will be cars without steering wheels or with only rudimentary physical controls for service and repairs. It will start with electric cargo containers that move themselves down the road.

    Imagine that you own a trucking company. As with most companies, labor is your biggest expense. And they can't drive 24 hours a day. And they need vacations. Now imagine you can replace all your drivers.

    Imagine too that instead of all the wear and tear on the truck engines, you are using simple electric motors. Less wear and tear. Less maintenance.

    Self driving cargo overseen from a central dispatch will be the first wave of truly autonomous traffic, followed shortly by passenger traffic.

    Some people ask about the liability of autonomous trucks. But I'd rather share the road with a machine that was adjusting traction, speed, and direction a hundred times a second then an exhausted trucker hopped up on caffeine trying to make good time.

    And I feel the same way about most of the passenger traffic out there. I'd trust a computer that never gets distracted over a college kid texting, a drunk returning from the bars, or a grandma whose vision and reflexes are really not what they used to be. When you think about it, it's silly that anyone would be afraid of what kind of software issues might arise from self driving cars. We all witness drivers every day who flat out should not be on the road and we don't cause a ruckus. But people are worried about how well a computer can drive? After we see it in action, our doubts will disappear.
    Aug 22, 2015. 01:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Growth-Related Fears Are Overblown [View article]
    Arnie, that is exactly where I've chosen to focus as well. Right now, at about 15 bucks, it's a bet that AAPL will be higher than 125 in Jan 2017. Wow, I'll take that bet with every nickel I can spare. At 140 it's a double.

    If the market tanks this fall, I'll leave that position in place and focus on a lower strike, but as it stands right now, the odds seem good that AAPL will be much higher than 125 in 16 months.

    And of course there's lots of room to sell out of the money calls against that strike along the way.
    Aug 21, 2015. 07:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's A Risk Adverse World Out There [View article]
    I shudder to think what a freshman composition looks like in this day and age. People thought my generation was becoming illiterate, but at least we were used to typing complete sentences.
    Aug 21, 2015. 07:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple hire from Tesla points to continued car-team buildout [View news story]
    In Manhattan in the 1920's, a police officer stationed in a tower manually changed the traffic signal from green to red at busy intersections based on his observations. If he saw a particularly important person on his way to work, he might allow the light to stay green a little longer.

    We forget that when cars were new it took a while to understand how to use them, how to control them, and how to drive them.

    We can't help but be short sighted when we think about what it means to have a "self-driving car". But almost all our assumptions will be wrong. There will be this period where they share the road with normal cars, like motor cars shared the road with horse drawn buggies and wagons in the teens and 20's (and into the 30's in some parts of the country). But eventually we will realize the full benefit of having autonomously mobile vehicles moving around.

    Cargo will transport itself. Parents will not have to "drop the kids off at soccer practice". Bus routes will comport to realtime demand. The buses themselves will be electric and unmanned (overseen by a supervisor at the depot). This will reduce cost and usher in an era of practical and convenient mass transit. Autonomous cabs will automatically pick up business travelers and take them to their meetings because our watches coordinate with the cabs where we are and where we want to be.

    In modern parlance, much of the friction of moving from place to place will be eliminated.

    When we hear "self-driving car" we look at the family car and imagine riding around without having to grab the wheel. But it will be so much more than that.

    What Apple brings to the self-driving car project is the understanding that you have to tear down the notion of a "car" and start over. Each element has to exist for a reason, not because of some legacy design.
    Aug 21, 2015. 07:24 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: There Won't Be An iPhone 6s Bump [View article]
    Short sighted... Or very old.
    Aug 20, 2015. 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Take Advantage Of Rate Pullback [View article]
    Ernie, you may have seen a while back that PED had an article on Apple 2.0 where a guy in the biz admitted to him that "other" was the fudge factor all of these companies use to make sure that their charts fit the narrative they are trying to tell. And of course like Gartner's claim that Microsoft would own 30% of the phone market by 2015, these narratives are usually created for their clients.
    Aug 20, 2015. 02:48 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Take Advantage Of Rate Pullback [View article]
    "Mike, Because TC does not know what to do. Jobs set things up but ultimately you have to adjust."

    Anyone paying attention knows that Tim Cook has made many adjustments that Jobs was either unwilling or unable to do.

    Under Cook:

    Supplier work environment standards (and auditing) have been strengthened.
    A dividend was announced (and regularly increased).
    A buy back program was announced (and regularly increased).
    A bigger phone was produced.
    A smaller iPad was produced.
    The strategy of "nuclear war" in the courts has been abandoned.

    All of these Jobs era policies -- favorite targets of the Apple naysayers -- have been changed under Tim Cook's leadership.

    Each of these changes has benefited Apple. Taken together they paint a picture of a CEO that is in full command of Apple and knows exactly what he is doing.

    Given that so many of the things that Cook has done address the very issues that naysayers loved to harp on while Jobs was alive, it seems odd that Cook is not more loved by the Anti-Apple crowd. The only thing he has possibly done to disappoint them is succeed in strengthening Apple.
    Aug 19, 2015. 10:40 PM | 31 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Market's False Correction [View article]
    Heck, even three.
    Aug 18, 2015. 05:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Apple Burst The Netflix Bubble? [View article]
    Apple could pick up a 3d printing company for just a couple billion and maybe make a 3d printer that was easy to use and not, well, frustrating and worthless.

    One of the problems in early 3d printing is lack of standards. But marrying the software and the hardware and making sure everything talks to everything else in the ecosystem is their forte. 3d printing seems a natural area of exploration for them.

    Still have $198 billion left...
    Aug 17, 2015. 07:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Apple Burst The Netflix Bubble? [View article]
    Scott trader,

    Apple could leap frog into the living room very easily with one simple move. Netflix could be free on Apple TV.

    Apple could make a deal with Netflix for a rate. Apple has cash to burn. It could easily pull an Amazon and sell the Apple TV for some decently low price and include free Netflix for something absurd like three years. Negative net income on the device by Apple would be offset by its market dominance in the device (who doesn't want free Netflix?), and opening up the app store to TV woud still provide a small but steady revenue source for Apple.

    If Apple did this, it would "leapfrog into the living room". But Apple doesn't work that way. Apple is allergic to negative margins.

    Still, this kind of partnership would be way easier and much cheaper for Apple than gobbling up unrelated companies just accomplish pretty much the same thing.

    But I enjoy the exercise of trying to think of inorganic growth. I love thinking about "What if Apple bought X". Haven't found a really fantastic one yet.
    Aug 17, 2015. 01:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Things I Think I Think - Weekend Edition [View article]
    John, I am wondering more about what you think of the idea. (I read the links.)

    Isn't the word on the Fed that it was created as a quasi governmental public-private partnership? (I'm sure it's just a mistake that I originally typed that "public-pirate" partnership.)

    Wouldn't creating debt free money backed by "asset values rather than pure bank credit with fixed principal." Take some of the "private" out of the Fed? I mean, these assets would be publicly owned assets, right?

    So you're creating a kind of "public" bank inside the public-private entity. This seems like it would trigger cries that the banking system was being nationalized. Because to one small portion that is exactly what is happening.

    So then the question becomes how on earth would bankers allow their very advantageous banking system to become partially nationalized?

    Senators with a minimal understanding of banking would be "educated" by not only the banking lobby but by nearly every wealthy and business savvy person they came into contact with. Very few capitalists are going to accept the wisdom of partial nationalization of the banking system.

    That's my opinion. What's yours?
    Aug 17, 2015. 12:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bloomberg: Apple now aiming for 2016 Web TV service launch [View news story]
    Moxi, your view of the world makes no sense to me. You're "market share means dominance" notion is like saying that China has a better military than the US because they have more troops than we do.

    Dominance is a qualitative measurement, not a quantitative one. It is indisputable that Google's free operating system powers many millions more devices than Apple's iOS.

    There are more ants than humans on the planet. Ants rule the global "population share". By your logic, they dominate the planet. Poor humans. The future is ants.

    You proudly and exhaustively make this same fundamental error in reasoning despite many others attempting to show you why you are mistaken. Google is certainly one major player in the modern tech space, but they do not "dominate" mobile simply because they have managed to establish a wide array of fragmented versions of their free operating system on a bunch of cheap phones.

    Military might is measured by firepower, not total troops. Business dominance is measured in dollars, not total units. The dominant vendor in mobile is Apple. No contest.
    Aug 16, 2015. 02:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Growth-Related Fears Are Overblown [View article]
    If the market is in trouble, there have to be more rewarding shorts than a company with a $200B cash pile and the most valuable brand name in the world.

    In a market wide pullback, I'd want to short something that wouldn't get back off the mat.
    Aug 16, 2015. 01:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Chinese Consumer And Apple: A Match Made In The Temple Of Heaven [View article]
    "but as Apple shareholders already know, it's the next series (iPhone 7) that gives the stock the next leg up."

    Not if history is any guide. The 's' series has had better stock moves than the non-s series. This is probably because it is the bigger selling cycle. Look at a sales chart and a stock chart and you can see it. Sales for the 's' cycle are huge and the stock gets a bump.

    Anyone predicting weak growth for iPhone sales on the 6s cycle has not been paying attention.

    And I don't know what to make of "It's highly evident Apple will report another weak growth in China." Another weak growth? When was the first one?
    Aug 16, 2015. 01:06 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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