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Dialectical Materialist

Dialectical Materialist
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  • Apple Blossoms In The Spring [View article]
    "anyone can write anything, apparently, even if they are ignorant of facts and standard definitions of words."

    That is otherwise known as "The First Rule of the Internet."
    Jan 21, 2013. 07:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 1st Quarter 2013 Apple Double Income Stream Strategy [View article]
    Sorry, the dividend is divided in the same manner that the shares are multiplied. If a stock that paid a $1 dividend did a 4:1 split, each share would pay $0.25.
    Jan 21, 2013. 07:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: What To Look For Beyond The Numbers [View article]
    "I'll hold off on providing that list"

    I won't

    This is Philip Elmer-Dewitt's long standing project tracking professional analysts' and "bloggers'" projects for AAPL each quarter.

    It supports what both of you are saying. The overall consensus is 55.96 and 14.20. The "pros" work out to 54.74 and 13.75. The "amateurs" works out to 58.84 and 15.11.

    Interestingly in q1 2012 not one person from the most seasoned pro to the most bullish blogger got anywhere near the actual figures -- they all guessed low. I think we are going to see a repeat surprise to the high end. Andy Zaky may not be far off this time.
    Jan 21, 2013. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Once-A-Year Article On Apple [View article]
    I'm just saying the stock hasn't really moved that much from its level last February to justify why he would be bearish then and bullish now. If anything, the stock was stronger last spring than it is now. But since I expect AAPL to be doing quite well next winter, I suspect the author will not want to miss a chance to say, "See. I told you it was worth a look." Really, it was every bit as much "worth a look" last February.
    Jan 21, 2013. 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: Expect The Unexpected [View article]
    Will 16.64 EPS be special enough for you?
    Jan 21, 2013. 12:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: What To Look For Beyond The Numbers [View article]
    "maybe because of the mini?"

    Possibly. But possibly because the 5th gen iPad rumored to be announced in March will be using a different kind of 9.7" screen. This would cause them to wind down orders of the old 9.7" retina display. Not saying that is the explanation, but it is one possible explanation. It's simply hard to decipher current demand from the forward component orders on existing products. Too many variables in play.
    Jan 21, 2013. 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: Expect The Unexpected [View article]
    "New product releases will continue the companies growth. iphone max + iTV + ipad updates will lead to record revenue and profit in 2013."

    I agree, but Apple guidance never includes unannounced products. Or if it does, they make very conservative projections to avoid giving anything away.

    So it is possible that q2 guidance may disappoint folks who are looking for a reason to not be blown away by the earnings call.

    I think margin projections will be the most important element of guidance.
    Jan 21, 2013. 11:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: What To Look For Beyond The Numbers [View article]
    "Apple didn't count sales until the customer took delivery. Wasn't this one of the big issues in 4Q?"

    Apple seems to mean "take delivery" when they report that x millions bought the phone over the weekend. But when they report sales for each quarter, it does include channel fill (those items shipped to stores like Best Buy in order to be sold).

    This makes it very likely that they will report a monster quarter for the iPhone. They started the quarter with very little channel fill and should end it with stores pretty well stocked as they finally got in front of the demand curve.

    Some argue they got a handle on inventory because demand was weak, but we know that AT&T and Verizon sold more than ever and that the first weekend in China blew away the 4s's first weekend in China, so it seems unlikely that demand was anything but record breaking.

    So you have record breaking sales vs last q1, a release to more countries than last q1, a launch in China in q1, and an empty channel to fill. 53 million seems to low to me.
    Jan 21, 2013. 11:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Get Ready For January 18 [View article]
    Real or not, thanks for the info.
    Jan 20, 2013. 11:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Too Big Of A Market Cap Stock' Theory [View article]
    Market Cap to GDP comparisons are of limited value. It is like comparing the holding capacity of a lake (market cap) to the flow of a river (GDP). It makes it seem like your are saying that Apple would be 5% of the economy if its market cap were 5% of the GDP but that is simply not the case. Gross sales to GDP would be the measurement you want here, and more specifically you would want US sales to US GDP.

    There is no mathematical reason that a global company could not have a market cap that is as large as the GDP of some large nation. The first is a measure of stored wealth the second is a rate of economic activity.
    Jan 20, 2013. 04:57 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Get Ready For January 18 [View article]

    Gore was exercising an option he had been awarded in 2003 when he joined the board. He executed it at the earliest possible time, for obvious reasons. He doesn't just "apparently" sit on their board. The board of directors of any publicly traded company is public knowledge. Apple's BoD is made up of these folks:

    This is not a "sham" in the proper sense of the word. It was not done illegally or without public disclosure. If you look at the boards of all of the major corporations in the US you will see lots of familiar names from business and politics and you will see that they get compensated very nicely for their trouble.

    The reason a person is given options to exercise at a certain price point is that it gives them an incentive to work hard and make the company worth more so that they can get paid. This is not an Al Gore thing or even an Apple thing. It is simply the way it is done. I can see having some reservations about the process, but to think it has anything to do with Apple specifically or with Al Gore being a shady politician is to misunderstand the process.

    Jan 20, 2013. 12:02 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Market Hero At The Crossroads [View article]
    "to an iPad, which I can never get my hands on"

    A couple weeks ago I had a friend mention that he bought a 4th gen iPad for his family for Christmas. He knew I had been using an iPad for a while. Someone else asked him what he thought of it. He just shrugged.

    The investor in me cringed. Uh-oh, he didn't like it. He was underwhelmed. "You don't like it?" I asked.

    "I should have bought two," he said. "I haven't even been able to try it out yet!"
    Jan 19, 2013. 05:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Market Hero At The Crossroads [View article]
    Rope, it sounds to me like you are saying the options market is not rigged. Yet at the same time you caution that this is not a level playing field. While I agree with you, I think that is a pretty fine distinction that may be a source of some of the problem

    You argue that there are no "big boys who manipulate the market" but also warn that the professional trader will always win. Do you see why this dichotomy may be hard for some amateurs to wrap their heads around?
    Jan 19, 2013. 04:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Not A Retirement Stock [View article]
    Apple doesn't have any verbs, but its does own two nouns. An mp3 player is an iPod and a tablet computer is an iPad. Not bad for now.
    Jan 19, 2013. 12:18 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sharp (SHCAY.PK) has "nearly halted production" of displays for the regular iPad as demand shifts towards the iPad Mini and Apple (AAPL -0.6%) attempts to manage inventory, Reuters reports. Many analysts have already forecast the Mini, which is thinner and much lighter than the 4th-gen regular iPad, will account for a majority of iPad sales in Q1. Higher Mini sales benefit display suppliers AUO and LPL. Due to lower price tags, Apple's average gross profit on Mini sales appears to be lower than its average gross profit on regular iPad sales. [View news story]
    Typical Seeking Alpha Dynamic:

    Author: 20+ divided by 9 is something less than 2.

    Commenter: No, you mean more than 2.

    Author: Less than 2. The 20 is only an estimate. But it is something greater than 20. Divided by 9 should be less than 2.

    Commenter: Do the math. By your own assumptions, the answer is at least 2.22!

    Author: You're so emotional. You really shouldn't fall in love with numbers.
    Jan 19, 2013. 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment