Dialectical Materialist

Dialectical Materialist
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  • Apple: Why This Isn't 'Peak iPhone'  [View article]
    BoltmanLives, and who would want to invest in a company that makes products that are popular among people with disposable income? Sounds like all you'll get with that kind of strategy is a high profit margin, and how important can that be to a company's success anyway?
    Dec 18, 2015. 02:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Why This Isn't 'Peak iPhone'  [View article]
    "She's been one of the most accurate Apple analysts"

    No. She was 24th out of 33 in Rev and EPS in q4 2015 in PED's survey of Apple analysts. Couldn't find her in q3, but in q2 2015 she was 32nd of 37.

    She is not one of the most accurate. She was in the bottom third both of these quarters.

    "One of the most accurate" is an easy statement to make. 24th out of 33 last quarter is a more data driven assessment.

    Dec 18, 2015. 02:32 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple & China UnionPay to Bring Apple Pay to China  [View article]
    This makes two press releases in two days (the same day, but on the other side of the globe) from Apple. Are they trying to provide some support for the stock or maybe trying to change the discussion from lower iPhone sales estimates? Maybe the company has been paying attention to the share price?
    Dec 17, 2015. 10:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Weak iPhone Sales A Reason To Buy?  [View article]
    "expect to see the slide into mediocrity continue."

    I think the best starting place for an investment analysis is to cede this point.

    Assume that Apple has reached peak Apple and that it will never again capture the imagination of the consumer the way it did back when... (well you pick the best place to imagine Apple was at its Zenith in product development). The fact is that many companies, like Microsoft certainly and Facebook eventually, will ride a slow profitable decline of the products that once defined them.

    So what would a declining Apple look like? How bad would its finances really get, realistically, as it suffered gradual brand erosion and boredom?

    Because when I view the company through this lens, it still appears to me that the stock is likely a good buy. Even assuming a slow down of revenue growth, and even the eventual decline in revenue years after that (again, ala Microsoft)... even assuming peak Apple has arrived, the company is still a profit generating monster. Put 54 billion in earnings on a chart and graph a fairly gradual slope down to $20 billion some years out, and you have an enormous amount of earnings coming into the company to support shareholder return.

    The only real concern would be a sudden collapse in sales. So I think the real disagreement from an investment standpoint is how likely it is that a huge chunk of their user base abandons them for the next cool thing. A difference of opinion here is likely to make the difference between a bull and a bear.
    Dec 17, 2015. 09:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple promotes Williams to COO, puts Schiller in charge of App Store (updated)  [View news story]

    Very interesting perspective.

    I have formed an opinion of Cook as a man who seems "nice" because he knows he holds the power. There are mercurial people who are intense and thoughtful and burn hot and are easy to read (like Jobs), but there are also thoughtful and intense people who have a very slow burn. I think Cook is one such person. I think he is taking a very long view.

    Cook fosters a very conservative bookkeeping strategy that understates revenue and profits where some people would take advantage of a chance to show some sizzle. They book taxes they haven't paid, they defer revenue, and they use GAAP earnings when for many companies it has fallen out of fashion. Some people mistake the calmer and quieter style of this kind of leader as a sign of weakness. I'm sure Tim views it as a strength. He is running the largest company in the world with an eye toward cultivating an insurmountable lead over his rivals. He is not a flash in the pan.

    I also think that those who compare him to Jobs should think about who Jobs was and what he looked for in people. Jobs could not stand idiots. The fact that he was close to Cook says that he is a smart cookie. I think most people accept that Cook is smart, but I think many underestimate his own brand of genius. He is not just smart, he is scary smart. And he has a better command of his strategy than many understand. That's my theory.
    Dec 17, 2015. 08:37 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Is Stuck In Purgatory  [View article]
    >>It's Apple "is" not Apple "are."<<

    Jack, this is usually just a tell about where people are posting from. In some places, like the UK, a company is a plural noun like a sports team would be to Americans. I would say, "The Miami Heat are making some roster changes..." I would not say "the Heat is making roster changes", even though to say "the team is making roster changes" is perfectly correct.

    So "Apple are doing" sounds very odd to some of us, but it is correct usage in some regions.
    Dec 17, 2015. 08:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Is Stuck In Purgatory  [View article]

    When I think of all the problems that could be caused for the stock if analysts were predicting some crazy unachievable number for iPhone sales in q1, I am content with reading all these "concerns" that sales may decline in 2016. In the past (as you know), when Apple has crushed YoY iPhone numbers but failed to reach some arbitrary expectation set by these analysts, shares have fallen rapidly. I am perfectly happy to have these folks keep their predictions low.

    I do agree this is an opportunity.
    Dec 16, 2015. 10:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Foxconn Data Points To Moderating iPhone Sales Growth  [View article]
    "The fact is Apple has never designed a low end phone, yet they have been actually selling more and more low end phones than current models releases."

    Yet the ASP has increased. That's quite a trick.
    Dec 16, 2015. 10:42 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney Turns To Vice  [View article]

    Star Wars reference. Undoubtedly a reference to your opinion of DIS.
    Dec 11, 2015. 12:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Grand Unified Theory Of Apple Products  [View article]
    ...in the US, in October, in online sales, according to some research company.

    Okay. Sure.
    Dec 8, 2015. 11:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple reportedly plans March Apple Watch event; iPhone battery case launched  [View news story]
    If they're smart they'll try to pass them off as Apple Watches and sell them. How did they end up with so many iWatches anyway?
    Dec 8, 2015. 05:29 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon launches Prime video subscription platform; Netflix -3.4% (updated)  [View news story]
    Sorry for stating the obvious, investingInvestor. Your name implies you may have some tolerance for such activity since I have never met an investing Non-investor. But no matter. My exclusive read on the stock markets: they will go up and down. You're welcome in advance.
    Dec 8, 2015. 12:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon launches Prime video subscription platform; Netflix -3.4% (updated)  [View news story]
    Amazon was never intended to be a bookstore. Books were merely the "proof of concept". Bezos had larger plans for Amazon from day one.
    Dec 8, 2015. 09:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Grand Unified Theory Of Apple Products  [View article]
    RO: I appreciate your report. I hope you will follow up with any additional observations. One report does not make a trend, but it is not something to shrug off either. Early reports that Apple Stores were full but the Watch display was not busy telegraphed that Watch sales would not break out of the few million mark their first quarter. I think these kind of observations are important. More reports of sluggish traffic would be potentially concerning.
    Dec 6, 2015. 03:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Examining U.S. iPhone Installed Base Data  [View article]
    BradleyModLover, I get that you work hard. Good for you. But I work plenty of 60+ hour weeks and it's a good week if I get Sunday off, so please don't use work as an excuse for how you have no time to do anything else. You said people in your break room use their Samsungs on Facebook. Well they just as easily could be reading Seeking Alpha if they wanted to. I personally prefer to follow stocks rather than look at someone's baby pictures or read their latest complaint about how stale their bagel was. Or how hard they work.

    I work hard for my money and I have managed to invest some of it. Sounds like that's what you did too. You can try to use my prolific comment history on Seeking Alpha as evidence that I don't work hard, but you have no idea what you're talking about. It's not smart to make assumptions about things you can't possibly know.

    We all make choices about how we spend out time. I am going to choose not to spend any more of mine on this discussion. I made a very polite response to your rude suggestion that I don't have a real job. You followed that up with another challenge about how I must not work as hard as you. I've learned that long workdays are made even harder if you carry a chip on your shoulder all day.
    Dec 6, 2015. 12:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment