You have a very interesting perspective on the world. But I don't think Apple will get crushed having to make its monthly payment of zero on the total lack of debt it carries.
Apple has more than Treasuries, including actual cash and corporate bonds. No they don't have shiny little stacks of silver piled up in a safe somewhere (or at least not much of it I'm sure) but they do have their billions in about the safest place they can store it.
The notion that AAPL will be delisted is about as concerning to me as getting struck by lightning while while holding a winning lottery ticket. It could happen. But it won't.
No, bad Apple news would not be an anonymous tip. Bad Apple news of the kind I am describing would be an official comment -- news they have to get out of the way and want to cushion with great news just afterward like the departure of Jobs.
I have already backed up the truck on Apple. It is too late for me to do anything more but wait. It is certainly possible that AAPL doesn't climb much from here, but it is less likely in my opinion that they had anything other than a stellar quarter.
I think they have a strong earnings report ahead of them along with a dividend increase and a deal with China Mobile. Any trickle of official good news ahead of the earnings will make me more leery of the q1 results.
Apple (AAPL) has cut iPhone 5 component orders for calendar Q1 due to weaker-than-expected demand, sources tell the WSJ; display orders are said to be cut by ~50%. The Nikkeialso claims display orders have been halved, albeit from an elevated level of 65M. The articles back up analyst reports of iPhone production and component order cuts, and raise the question of whether Apple needs a cheaper iPhone and/or one with a larger display to bolster its international share. Suppliers on watch: LPL, CRUS, OVTI, QCOM, BRCM, SWKS, TQNT, AVGO. [View news story]
"OF COURSE they need a bigger phone but they're too busy with idiotic lawsuits over bogus patents to deal with it."
You're right, if all the lawyers are tied up in court they will never have the time to design the new phone. Why does Apple have lawyers designing their phones in the first place? Now you have me worried. They should hire design people to work on their product line and leave the lawyers to lawyering. Maybe I will email them and suggest this.
I understand your point. I appreciate the difficulty you are describing.
But Russ also said, "Oh, the damn iPads. I and everyone I know with one has inadvertently touched the wrong icon, never to return to the thing you were half through reading."
That seemed a bit over the top to me. We're supposed to believe that someone with 35 years in the semiconductor industry, can't browse the web using a touch screen? That is, I assume he meant when browsing. I could think of no time that actually touching "icons" could bring you out of what you were doing and throw you off into some inescapable netherworld. So I assume he was touching errant buttons or links on a web page.
I am not surprised to read that someone does not like trying to get Apple products to play nice with others. But reading that he and everyone he knew were plumb flustered by that blasted iPad struck me as bizarre. My 70 year old mother uses an iPad for heavens sake.
It's entirely his right to review the product however he sees fit, and to report whatever experiences he and everyone he knows has with that product. But this forum also allows someone to react to such a review, and that is what I was doing.
People feel they were duped? I guess we'll have to see. First lets find out how many were "duped" this quarter and then we can guess at how many will or won't buy the next version.
Here's some stuff I have on Apple news that I figured was worth sharing here.
Apple announced the horrible news of Steve Jobs' medical leave on the eve of what was then their best quarter. It was clear that they wanted to buoy the bad news with good news. They timed the horrible to be quickly replaced with the great.
Interestingly, they did just the opposite in q4 2011. They published strong iPhone sales data just before what was a weak quarter (at least as far as the street's expectations). I remember at the time it tweaked my spider sense. I wondered, "Why aren't they just waiting to say this in the earnings call?" The answer was that they didn't want the good news buried in the soft report and they also wanted to support the soft results with good news ahead of time. I wish I had listened to my inner voice that told me something was not right.
Later, of course, Tim Cook mentioned in advance of earnings how many iPads had sold in total, which told anyone listening who could do division that they had only sold 14 million iPads in q4 2012.
Apple is very economical with its press releases and public comments, but it always times its news with very specific goals in mind.
So here's my takeaway. Any good news released by Apple in advance of earnings is a very bad sign. If they announce a deal with China Mobile ahead of earnings, it will scare the stuffing out of me. It will mean that they are puffing up the company in advance of a miss.
On the other hand, any bad news that they need to release will be done just before earnings if they have crushed it.
So here is a related puzzle. Apple often announces earnings after AT&T. It has often been the last best guess some folks have of how many iPhones were sold in the US. But this year, AAPL is going first. They will be announcing earnings after hours on the 23rd and ATT will be announcing earnings on the next morning. Should we read anything into that?
I was watched Cramer appear as a guest on Jon Stewart almost 4 years ago. Jon showed a clip of Cramer speaking at a symposium where he admitted that it was easy to float a rumor about Apple because they never responded to rumors. So, he said, float a negative rumor to move the share price down, move in and buy, and let the stock come back up. Easy.
Cramer admitted this was not only possible but was done, and done specifically with Apple because of its effectiveness.
Russ what I can't figure out is how you could understand all the data you cite above and be a member of MENSA (per your profile), and yet you couldn't figure out how to use an iPad.
A cynical person might think you were not being entirely forthcoming.
It's not my impression of your credibility you need to be concerned about. On that we agree.
Apple (AAPL) has cut iPhone 5 component orders for calendar Q1 due to weaker-than-expected demand, sources tell the WSJ; display orders are said to be cut by ~50%. The Nikkeialso claims display orders have been halved, albeit from an elevated level of 65M. The articles back up analyst reports of iPhone production and component order cuts, and raise the question of whether Apple needs a cheaper iPhone and/or one with a larger display to bolster its international share. Suppliers on watch: LPL, CRUS, OVTI, QCOM, BRCM, SWKS, TQNT, AVGO. [View news story]
Wow, "people familiar with the situation" are talking about component cuts again? They did the same thing last year at this time and again this past December. Go figure. Ten days and counting until we all get to be "people familiar with the situation".
I guess Foxconn was pretty silly for telling its workers they will have to work through their New Year holiday assembling iPhones... I wonder what they will be doing instead.
I can picture a number of scenarios that could easily precipitate such a crash:
-Suitcase nuke in San Francisco-Silicon Valley area. -Sudden and rapidly escalating conflict between Iran and Israel. -East coast mega-storm that wipes out DC and cripples the east coast economy. -Deadly pandemic that infects wealthy older white men (don't laugh, the vector could be something they are exposed to more than others and those of European ancestry could be genetically more sensitive than others as well). -A chance combination of several lesser events that by their timing create an inordinate level of concern for the economy.
Each possible agent has some remote chance of occurring. Added together, the probability of a Black Swan this spring is significantly non-zero.
How many years would it take for even one of these events to happen? Take that number and multiply by two (for how many six month periods one could live before the event occurs). 1 divided by that number gives you your percentage.
My personal guess is somewhere between 1 and 3% that the Dow will crash by June. On average we should live another 20 years before we see another crash like 2008. But I wouldn't quibble with someone who put the odds higher. And it should be noted that among the possible causes of a crash are events that make the very notion of a stock market moot.
Is There A Worm In The Apple? [View article]
Apple: The Ultimate Value Play At $520 [View article]
Cover your shorts. Earnings are near.
How Apple Gets To $400 A Share [View article]
Apple has more than Treasuries, including actual cash and corporate bonds. No they don't have shiny little stacks of silver piled up in a safe somewhere (or at least not much of it I'm sure) but they do have their billions in about the safest place they can store it.
The notion that AAPL will be delisted is about as concerning to me as getting struck by lightning while while holding a winning lottery ticket. It could happen. But it won't.
Apple: Get Ready For January 18 [View article]
I have already backed up the truck on Apple. It is too late for me to do anything more but wait. It is certainly possible that AAPL doesn't climb much from here, but it is less likely in my opinion that they had anything other than a stellar quarter.
I think they have a strong earnings report ahead of them along with a dividend increase and a deal with China Mobile. Any trickle of official good news ahead of the earnings will make me more leery of the q1 results.
Apple (AAPL) has cut iPhone 5 component orders for calendar Q1 due to weaker-than-expected demand, sources tell the WSJ; display orders are said to be cut by ~50%. The Nikkei also claims display orders have been halved, albeit from an elevated level of 65M. The articles back up analyst reports of iPhone production and component order cuts, and raise the question of whether Apple needs a cheaper iPhone and/or one with a larger display to bolster its international share. Suppliers on watch: LPL, CRUS, OVTI, QCOM, BRCM, SWKS, TQNT, AVGO. [View news story]
busy with idiotic lawsuits over bogus patents to deal with it."
You're right, if all the lawyers are tied up in court they will never have the time to design the new phone. Why does Apple have lawyers designing their phones in the first place? Now you have me worried. They should hire design people to work on their product line and leave the lawyers to lawyering. Maybe I will email them and suggest this.
Is Apple Really A 'Buy'? [View article]
I understand your point. I appreciate the difficulty you are describing.
But Russ also said, "Oh, the damn iPads. I and everyone I know with one has inadvertently touched the wrong icon, never to return to the thing you were half through reading."
That seemed a bit over the top to me. We're supposed to believe that someone with 35 years in the semiconductor industry, can't browse the web using a touch screen? That is, I assume he meant when browsing. I could think of no time that actually touching "icons" could bring you out of what you were doing and throw you off into some inescapable netherworld. So I assume he was touching errant buttons or links on a web page.
I am not surprised to read that someone does not like trying to get Apple products to play nice with others. But reading that he and everyone he knew were plumb flustered by that blasted iPad struck me as bizarre. My 70 year old mother uses an iPad for heavens sake.
It's entirely his right to review the product however he sees fit, and to report whatever experiences he and everyone he knows has with that product. But this forum also allows someone to react to such a review, and that is what I was doing.
How Apple Gets To $400 A Share [View article]
Apple: Get Ready For January 18 [View article]
Apple announced the horrible news of Steve Jobs' medical leave on the eve of what was then their best quarter. It was clear that they wanted to buoy the bad news with good news. They timed the horrible to be quickly replaced with the great.
Interestingly, they did just the opposite in q4 2011. They published strong iPhone sales data just before what was a weak quarter (at least as far as the street's expectations). I remember at the time it tweaked my spider sense. I wondered, "Why aren't they just waiting to say this in the earnings call?" The answer was that they didn't want the good news buried in the soft report and they also wanted to support the soft results with good news ahead of time. I wish I had listened to my inner voice that told me something was not right.
Later, of course, Tim Cook mentioned in advance of earnings how many iPads had sold in total, which told anyone listening who could do division that they had only sold 14 million iPads in q4 2012.
Apple is very economical with its press releases and public comments, but it always times its news with very specific goals in mind.
So here's my takeaway. Any good news released by Apple in advance of earnings is a very bad sign. If they announce a deal with China Mobile ahead of earnings, it will scare the stuffing out of me. It will mean that they are puffing up the company in advance of a miss.
On the other hand, any bad news that they need to release will be done just before earnings if they have crushed it.
So here is a related puzzle. Apple often announces earnings after AT&T. It has often been the last best guess some folks have of how many iPhones were sold in the US. But this year, AAPL is going first. They will be announcing earnings after hours on the 23rd and ATT will be announcing earnings on the next morning. Should we read anything into that?
Apple: Get Ready For January 18 [View article]
Apple: Get Ready For January 18 [View article]
Apple: Get Ready For January 18 [View article]
Cramer admitted this was not only possible but was done, and done specifically with Apple because of its effectiveness.
http://bit.ly/r7bIyz
Watch the last minute from 7:30 to 8:24 if you have never heard of this.
I have never looked at a news story about Apple that cited "people familiar with the situation" the same way since.
I am amazed that some people still deny this kind of thing takes place.
Is Apple Really A 'Buy'? [View article]
Is Apple Really A 'Buy'? [View article]
A cynical person might think you were not being entirely forthcoming.
It's not my impression of your credibility you need to be concerned about. On that we agree.
Apple (AAPL) has cut iPhone 5 component orders for calendar Q1 due to weaker-than-expected demand, sources tell the WSJ; display orders are said to be cut by ~50%. The Nikkei also claims display orders have been halved, albeit from an elevated level of 65M. The articles back up analyst reports of iPhone production and component order cuts, and raise the question of whether Apple needs a cheaper iPhone and/or one with a larger display to bolster its international share. Suppliers on watch: LPL, CRUS, OVTI, QCOM, BRCM, SWKS, TQNT, AVGO. [View news story]
I guess Foxconn was pretty silly for telling its workers they will have to work through their New Year holiday assembling iPhones... I wonder what they will be doing instead.
How Apple Gets To $400 A Share [View article]
I can picture a number of scenarios that could easily precipitate such a crash:
-Suitcase nuke in San Francisco-Silicon Valley area.
-Sudden and rapidly escalating conflict between Iran and Israel.
-East coast mega-storm that wipes out DC and cripples the east coast economy.
-Deadly pandemic that infects wealthy older white men (don't laugh, the vector could be something they are exposed to more than others and those of European ancestry could be genetically more sensitive than others as well).
-A chance combination of several lesser events that by their timing create an inordinate level of concern for the economy.
Each possible agent has some remote chance of occurring. Added together, the probability of a Black Swan this spring is significantly non-zero.
How many years would it take for even one of these events to happen? Take that number and multiply by two (for how many six month periods one could live before the event occurs). 1 divided by that number gives you your percentage.
My personal guess is somewhere between 1 and 3% that the Dow will crash by June. On average we should live another 20 years before we see another crash like 2008. But I wouldn't quibble with someone who put the odds higher. And it should be noted that among the possible causes of a crash are events that make the very notion of a stock market moot.
What odds would you assign?