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Dialectical Materialist

Dialectical Materialist
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  • Apple's Electric Vehicle Opportunity [View article]
    Donald Johnson,

    If IBM had never strayed from its core competency, it would still be making adding machines and typewriters. You can find many examples of companies that lose focus and go off in a million directions, but you can also find examples of companies who navigated change and brought disruption to products in a changing world. If Apple gets into the car biz, it is a safe bet that the product will be an improvement over existing autos in some significant way.

    And a modern EV with a computer at its core shares more in common with a smart phone than it does a Buick from the 1950's. This move is not as far away from Apple's core competency as you seem to think.
    Feb 21, 2015. 11:45 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Entering The Car Sector? Why This Could Be Its Next 'Large Numbers' Move [View article]
    Not saying they will, but if they wanted to, they could do a cash and stock deal.
    Feb 19, 2015. 08:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Expect Another Small Dividend Raise [View article]
    A large group of angels assembled on the head of a pin recently to determine the answer once and for all. But it turned out only a few of them actually knew how to dance.
    Feb 19, 2015. 08:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Entering The Car Sector? Why This Could Be Its Next 'Large Numbers' Move [View article]
    This could be about China, folks. Apple knows that its future is in some very important ways in the hands of the largest population on the planet. What if it could provide clean, efficient, and reasonably affordable transportation to the Chinese middle class? The government would love to clean up the air. Clean cars will be part of that.

    But one knock on EV's is that they are really as dirty as the power plants you use to charge them. So it is unsurprising that Apple is also keenly interested in solar farms. Imagine Apple solar farms producing energy in China that charges the cars the growing Chinese middle class drives.

    We naturally view everything Apple does through the lens of the Westerner. We assume we are still the center of the universe. Apple seems smart enough to know that the center is shifting East.

    China is also a younger automobile market than the West and would be easier to disrupt on a grand scale.
    Feb 19, 2015. 08:32 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Apple car project is for real, and it's a minivan [View news story]
    JDinNJ, good point.

    A great number of accidents, even those that don't involve two cars in the actual crash, are caused by the unanticipated actions of another vehicle. We may swerve to avoid a car pulling out, or have to slam on the breaks as a car makes a sudden lane change or cuts in front of us making a hurried left through a yellow light.

    When you realize that self driving cars will have the ability to communicate with each other, you can easily see that slowing down ahead of time so that the other vehicle can make the left will mean fewer accidents. And a self driving car will not pull out in front of you or slam on the breaks in the same unpredictable way as a human driver can, so these sudden environmental challenges will be reduced as the number of self driving cars increases.

    The ideal of course is a road full of nothing but computer driven vehicles. They would be able to maintain moderate speeds without stopping or even breaking for long periods of time because they would be moving in coordination with all the traffic around them. That is more energy efficient, more time efficient, and much safer than the situation we have today.
    Feb 14, 2015. 11:48 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will History Repeat Itself For Apple? [View article]
    and yet...
    Feb 6, 2015. 02:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will History Repeat Itself For Apple? [View article]
    Eric's follow up comment was made two years after skytop's comment. But now, two years further on, imagine if sky top had continued to hold on. Bad dream? Not so much.

    Looking back at old comments and articles is instructive. It shows that both the bulls and the bears are usually right. And also wrong.
    Feb 6, 2015. 02:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Stock Price Vs. Key Product Release Dates Beginning 1983 [View article]
    And 16x two years later...
    Feb 6, 2015. 12:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can RadioShack Save Amazon Fire? [View article]
    No, Gary, I don't like other people's baby pics, and those are just baby pics for rich old men ;)

    But I am glad you enjoy them.
    Feb 5, 2015. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Ready To Bounce Back On New Growth Driver [View article]
    Two years later:

    China Mobile, Done
    Less expensive phone, No or not yet.
    Unbreakable screen, No or not yet
    Larger screen phone, Done
    iWatch (Apple Watch), Done
    acquisition of content providers, No or not yet
    Launch of social network, No or not yet
    Apple Network, No, but current rumors to that effect
    Stock split, Done (7-1 is in the range predicted)

    4 out of 9, not bad. Certainly better than the prediction that NONE of these would happen.
    Feb 5, 2015. 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can RadioShack Save Amazon Fire? [View article]
    "it's nonsense since no one can verify anything here." Says the guy who talks about his fleet of BMW's he bought with the money he made investing...
    Feb 5, 2015. 10:37 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Blossoms In The Spring [View article]
    Glenn the "ignore" suggestion was specifically rejected by SA's Editor in Chief Eli Hoffman. The reason cited was that replies to invisible ignored comments would create a confusing mess. The idea was "unworkable" according to Eli.

    I think this analysis assumes that we would all be randomly ignoring different people. I think in practice the overlap would be astounding.

    I couldn't help but wonder if the real reason for not wanting to work through the "ignore" issues was associated with the fact that their profit model is driven by page views. Every comment not seen is potentially an impression not counted. Their advertisers may have a harder time understanding the concept of an interested and engaged user base than the notion that "there sure are a lot of them".
    Jan 23, 2013. 11:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Blossoms In The Spring [View article]
    "@DM, if that report is correct, please extrapolate those numbers over say 5 years and tell me where refresh stands, I think like compounding interest you will be surprised at how quickly it drops off."

    Luke, I can't reconcile declining customer refresh with a 50% increase in iPhone sales at Verizon. Project that out five years and see where it gets you. The validity of a survey of self-reported consumer preference pales in comparison to actual sales figures. I don't think that the survey should be dismissed out of hand, but it should not be given too much weight and certainly shouldn't be projected out five years without any other support.

    The proper takeaway from the refresh survey is that Apple is hugely popular among existing owners. A few percentage points either way is probably not meaningful. Two numbers don't make a series.

    Oh, and I should point out I am not saying that projecting Verizon's sales increase out five years is smart either. It would be just as prone to bad results as projecting the survey out five years.
    Jan 23, 2013. 01:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Get Ready For January 18 [View article]
    I was expecting a warm up act. Oh well.
    Jan 22, 2013. 01:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Get Ready For January 18 [View article]
    And here we are... All dressed up with no place to go. Where's the party?
    Jan 22, 2013. 01:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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