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Dialectical Materialist

Dialectical Materialist
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  • S&P 2,100 Is Going Critical - Netflix Is Going Ballistic [View article]
    There are definitely similarities with AMZN.

    Time will tell how long the subscription growth story will carry NFLX. I think of the negative $230 million in cash flow last quarter as a sign that they can not afford to grow at this pace forever. When this stock gets repriced, it will be dramatic.

    It could go on for a while yet. But who knows? To me it is a plane headed for a mountain and no one is worried because they all assume they can time their jump and get off the plane before it hits. If a stock like AAPL can fall 40% on shrinking margins, what happens when the story turns negative for NFLX? Institutional investors move very rapidly and move the market when they do. They are very happy with their returns right now. When they decide to cash in their chips, it will be Katy bar the door (and lots of other cliches too probably).

    But except for the increasingly negative cash flow, it's been the same story for NFLX for the last two years. So who knows what will happen?
    Aug 11, 2015. 01:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 2,100 Is Going Critical - Netflix Is Going Ballistic [View article]
    I agree, they certainly have room to add subscribers. Can they make enough money off of each one is the question...
    Aug 10, 2015. 06:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How China Will Take A Bite Out Of Apple's Growth Momentum [View article]
    Frabjous, all I can say is that I don't believe in the power of technicals to do anything but influence the behavior of traders who do believe in technicals.

    So you can kind of lose either way. You can be sane and refuse to support such voodoo nonsense and watch stocks bounce around arbitrary numbers with surprising regularity... Or you can attempt to understand how others are viewing technical signals and put yourself in the very uncomfortable position of actually paying attention to such nonsense.

    I used to ignore technicals, but I have become convinced that the signals they contain sometimes matter enough to enough people to move the stock.
    Aug 9, 2015. 10:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How China Will Take A Bite Out Of Apple's Growth Momentum [View article]
    In December and January AAPL made 4 runs at 113 before getting over the top. It is easy to spot support at 105 (or more closely 106), but technically, the previous resistance at 113 is now support.
    Aug 9, 2015. 10:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 2,100 Is Going Critical - Netflix Is Going Ballistic [View article]
    scott trader, I am working on an instablog (with actual charts and everything) laying out my bear case for NFLX. If I ever finish, I'll draw your attention to it.
    Aug 8, 2015. 11:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Apple's next iPhone event set for week of September 7 [View news story]
    And I'll consider infidelity if Kristen Bell ever makes a pass at me. Some things sound tempting in theory, but they probably won't happen.
    Aug 8, 2015. 07:15 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Market's False Correction [View article]
    Thanks for reminding me, Arnie. I tried it a while back but it never stuck. The previous post would have been a great place to use the symbol.
    Aug 8, 2015. 07:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Market's False Correction [View article]

    There has been no name change. There never was nor will be an iWatch. Here are the major reasons Apple has changed the naming scheme of its products:

    1) Using Apple Watch or Apple TV or Apple Music frees them from trademark headaches. You can't trademark a generic term like "Watch" so they can put Apple in front of any product and get a guaranteed safe name to use. Importantly, no one else can copy this name with similar sounding products as no one can use "Apple" in their product names.

    2) A product name can become a generic name for a category if not actively defended. For instance Band Aid had to revert to calling it "Band Aid brand" because Band Aid was becoming so ubiquitous that competitors were using the word as a generic description of their product in advertising.

    Apple had this problem with iPods. Everyone knows what an iPod is and it started to become a generic description of a music player. Apple has to vigorously defend its trademark or lose it when this happens according to trademark law.

    So again, it is clear that by using the brand Apple in front of their products, the term Apple Watch will never become the generic name for a smart watch, at least not so generic that it could ever be used in competitors' ads.

    So when pointing out that the "iWatch" is actually called an Apple Watch, this is not mere semantics. This is an intentional and well thought out naming strategy for Apple products moving forward. The term "iWatch" is used almost entirely by critics who are trying to belittle the product. The product name is the Apple Watch.
    Aug 8, 2015. 12:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 2,100 Is Going Critical - Netflix Is Going Ballistic [View article]
    That would explain a lot, Scott trader. As you know I went long NFLX because I got tired of losing my shorts (!). But I just couldn't stay long. It felt wrong. Like listening to disco music, it felt like a violation of everything I hold dear.

    A PE of 276 for a $52B company? Just how much do people expect a monthly subscription will cost in 3 years?
    Aug 7, 2015. 07:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 2,100 Is Going Critical - Netflix Is Going Ballistic [View article]
    I have never seen a clear description of what kind of information Seeking Alpha is attempting to provide for their readers. I have only seen reasons why they reject articles. They don't like technicals, and yet you read plenty of articles that refer to technicals. They don't like "short term trades". You'd think they were advocates for buy and hold strategy featuring large solid companies. And yet their best ideas award or whatever they call it frequently features some highly speculative small cap companies that had huge price movements.

    Their reasons for rejection always seem sound, like they are based in a philosophy of what the site is all about. But nowhere have I actually seen it spelled out coherently precisely what kinds of stock advice they want to provide. They seem to want to protect their readers from dangerous ideas. They no longer allow articles focused on options strategies, for instance. Except of course when they do. One long time author I can think of constantly writes about buy-write strategy even as they reject other authors for focusing on options.

    Then suddenly they'll publish some absolute fluff piece that has no investing strategy mentioned at all. A recent 8 paragraph piece on how you should "look deeper into company financials" comes to mind (of course the article didn't look deeper at anything, it just advised that was a good thing to do...).

    I enjoy many of the articles I read on SA, but I'll be darned if I can figure out what their criteria are for publication.
    Aug 7, 2015. 12:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Who Blinks First? [View article]

    That's an important question. If you dig deep enough or think long enough about any company, you can find something objectionable about it, I think. So it's up to you to figure out where you are comfortable drawing the lines.

    Sometimes our appetite for morality correlates with our financial security. I have known people who spend a great deal on food that meets a certain high moral standard they like to apply. And I've known others that can't really afford to care where their food comes from.

    So whenever I feel like I must make a moral choice about how to invest or spend my money, I feel very lucky to be in the position to consider morals at all.
    Aug 6, 2015. 07:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: 5 Is The Magic Number [View article]
    Yeah, occasional commenters are not the folks who are changing there names. When you see someone with several hundred comments in just a few months, odds are good he used to post just as many comments several months ago, but was simply using another account.

    What will you do if no one is at Cinnabun? Your yardstick will be ruined!
    Aug 6, 2015. 07:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Better Entry Point For Apple Will Become Available For Patient Investors [View article]
    Thanks. And, well, it's not my ONLY holding of course!
    Aug 5, 2015. 08:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: There Won't Be An iPhone 6s Bump [View article]
    Illuminati, US cash only. That is why they are doing this whole debt issue dance.
    Aug 5, 2015. 08:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Market's False Correction [View article]
    99.3 million shares. Good call. It didn't close over 116 but it held up okay.
    Aug 5, 2015. 08:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment