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Dialectical Materialist

Dialectical Materialist
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  • A Better Entry Point For Apple Will Become Available For Patient Investors [View article]
    "My article was written for the investor who wanted to buy AAPL at $95 (my friend). My point was that over a long time frame, they could get a better entry point and that $100 would be a magnet which would limit their total return."

    It doesn't matter if there are better stocks over the last year or even if AAPL has declined 12% in recent weeks....

    You explained in your comments and in the article that you told your friend to wait till 95. There is no escaping that this was a bad call.

    Had you been right with the proclamation that "AAPL's price has peaked" you would be due all the credit for a great call. So there is no reason to try and distract from the fact that this was a really bad call. AAPL did none of things you laid out in the article.

    You asked for 3 qtrs to allow your thesis to play out. It didn't.
    Aug 4, 2015. 09:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: There Won't Be An iPhone 6s Bump [View article]
    Paulo, the article I want to see you write is in January where you talk about how the iPhone unit sales reported by Apple either did or did not support the argument you make in this article.

    In my opinion, you have this wrong. Don't look at this year to year. Look at this every two years. Compare sales of 4, 5, and 6 and of 4s, 5s and 6s. These are two waves or generations of iPhone users. The bigger set is the one that is on the 'S' cycle. But let's see what the numbers say in January.

    Either way, I sincerely hope you do a follow up piece and update the chart you have provided here. I disagree with you on this article (and AAPL in general) but I like your work.
    Aug 3, 2015. 06:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: There Won't Be An iPhone 6s Bump [View article]
    And Dennis has answered your concern about how they are calculating this number...
    Aug 3, 2015. 06:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Stock Has Peaked [View article]
    Okay, Gary. Just let me know when NFLX has hit its peak, okay?
    Aug 3, 2015. 06:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Stock Has Peaked [View article]
    I agree that millennials may love the company. But when 2018 LEAPS become available I think the Puts will be too tempting to pass up. This stock is so obviously ripe for a 50% haircut it would be a shame to miss it.

    NFLX won't fall until it loses institutional support. But as AAPL in 2012 showed, that can happen in a hurry and no one rings a bell.
    Aug 3, 2015. 06:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fitbit: A One-Trick Pony? [View article]
    "So stellar it's down another 2.6%"

    What part of, "Stocks can move in any direction in the short term," confuses you?
    Aug 3, 2015. 06:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Stock Has Peaked [View article]
    Can a fellow make any money shorting this beast is what I want to know. So far that has been a very bad call. But NFLX looks more overvalued with each passing week. Some brave and lucky shorter will make a fortune someday. Probably won't be me, though.
    Aug 3, 2015. 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Shift To Asset-Light, High-Margin, Middlemen Businesses [View article]
    Ratty,

    Glen's comments are just as repetitive and one sided as the Google evangelist who used to post under the name Moxi. Moxi stopped posting in the end of May. But fortunately Glen started posting to Seeking Alpha in early June or we might forget about how Google market share is so dominant.
    Aug 3, 2015. 11:09 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fitbit: A One-Trick Pony? [View article]
    It was a stellar earnings report.

    Stocks can move in any direction in the short term, but anyone trying to claim that Apple did not have a great quarter is simply not understanding the numbers. It was yet another record for a q3 report.

    What kind of mental gymnastics do you need in order to think that record revenue and earnings does not comprise a stellar report?
    Aug 3, 2015. 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple More Vulnerable Than Microsoft To Trends In Mobile? Probably [View article]
    "Neighbor's son switches to Android. Could devastate Apple, analysts say"
    Aug 1, 2015. 11:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple More Vulnerable Than Microsoft To Trends In Mobile? Probably [View article]
    richbar,

    I actually agree that Apple's q1 guidance might be lower than last years actual revenue (though it will surely be higher than last year's guidance).

    If that happens, and it spooks the market, it will be a tremendous buying opportunity, because the odds of Apple's actual revenue declining YoY in q1 is slight. The 's' cycle for the iPhone is bigger than the plain number cycle, they will have a rebounding iPad (based on replacement cycle alone) and a Watch for holiday gift giving. And Apple music will be accretive. And Apple TV may be a thing.

    There are too many new ways for them to generate additional revenue to think they will actually fail to beat q1 2015. Even if they sold identical number of units at identical ASP, they would beat YoY. This is because the rolling wave of deferred revenue in q1 will include some of last years' iPhone sales (which is greater than the deferred revenue recognized in 2015 from the previous year's sales).

    I will bet the farm that q1 revenue beats handily YoY. If a bunch of traders want to get spooked by Apple's guidance, well that just leaves more for the rest of us.
    Aug 1, 2015. 11:36 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple More Vulnerable Than Microsoft To Trends In Mobile? Probably [View article]
    toneguru,

    All right... all right... but apart from better sanitation and medicine and education and irrigation and public health and roads and a freshwater system and baths and public order... what have the Romans done for us?
    Aug 1, 2015. 11:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple More Vulnerable Than Microsoft To Trends In Mobile? Probably [View article]
    "Actually Mr. Blair has a point. Apple is more vulnerable to mobile than Microsoft."

    Exactly right, davel. Just like LeBron James is more vulnerable to changes in the sports market than I am.
    Aug 1, 2015. 11:15 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fitbit: A One-Trick Pony? [View article]
    Taylor, you're telling me I've been walking around with a bathroom scale on my wrist? No wonder people were looking at me funny. I just thought they weren't hip to the times. That's really embarrassing.
    Aug 1, 2015. 06:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Entering The Car Sector? Why This Could Be Its Next 'Large Numbers' Move [View article]
    Apple Diner,

    The way I look at it is this:

    Batteries are a highly limiting design factor in most of what Apple makes. The Watch, for example, is limited by the weight and power of the battery they can reasonably fit into it.

    So battery tech is an area of huge potential pay-off for Apple. It makes perfect sense for them to be interested, possibly even obsessed, with improving batteries.

    But if they have ideas they want to pursue about batteries, it would border on the absurd to ignore another obvious device that is currently limited by battery tech -- the electric car.

    So I think Apple is seeing the big picture here, as it tries to do so often, and it realizes that battery technology is the number one limiting factor in mobile progress. Any other breakthrough, like say for example a miniature holographic display, is useless if it can't be powered in a discreet way.

    Apple is clearly interested in batteries. How far along they are with theoretical improvements in battery power is anyone's guess. But if they feel they can meaningfully shrink batteries, then electric cars would be something they would want to be involved in alongside of this development.

    As a side note, if they were interested in personal robots, they might use the manufacturing of electric cars as a cover. So it is possible that Apple has no real interest in cars. But I think they almost certainly are obsessed with batteries.
    Aug 1, 2015. 12:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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