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Dialectical Materialist

Dialectical Materialist
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  • Apple Bonds: Heavy Trading Volume Is A Concern But Default Risk Remains Low [View article]
    "As a former treasurer of a large U.S. bank holding company, I always thought about bond issues in the same way I thought about heartbeats. The more that you have done, the fewer you have left."

    This is one of those comments that seems logical on the face of it, but really does not bear scrutiny.

    If having more heartbeats were a bad thing, exercise would be the worst idea for extending your life. Instead we find that it is one of the best ways to live longer. The heart is a muscle that needs to be exercised, it is not a metronome that breaks after a certain number of clicks.

    And the faulty analogy in some perverse way applies to the topic at hand. Similar to heartbeats, it is not the running total of bond offerings that is of most concern, but their quality. It is in some sense true that the more bond offerings you have, the greater your risk of default. But what matters is the context. The more showers you take, the greater your risk of slipping and breaking your neck, as well. But that statistical fact need not imply the risk is growing to cautionary levels.
    Sep 3, 2015. 10:33 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's True Intrinsic Value May Never Be Known [View article]
    To be clear, Amazon offers the campsite in addition to wages working as a picker/packer over the busy fall season.

    Thanks for mentioning this. I had not heard of it before. Like a temporary company town from the old railroad days.
    Sep 3, 2015. 10:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba unveils Netflix-like Chinese service priced at $57/year [View news story]
    And that reveals the price point that is likely to be the battle ground in China. Less than $5 a month. And NFLX is supposed to start gearing up the earnings machine how? This is proof positive that a 200+ PE is way too optimistic for this stock.
    Sep 2, 2015. 11:54 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Are The Lessons From The Market Turmoil? [View article]
    Tony, you suggested that with a sip of coffee you could suss out what was wrong with the USPS. You said, "Most workers should be qualified for minimum wages with few benefits for the skills."

    When the ridiculousness of this notion (admittedly maybe you should have had more than one sip of coffee) was pointed out to you, you said the point was that they were over-paid and you "rested your case". I'll assume you've had enough coffee by now to see what's wrong with that picture.

    If you're going to throw out outrageous ideas and brag about how easily these solutions come to you, be prepared to defend them. If you can't, you should perhaps be less cavalier about how simple these solutions are.
    Sep 2, 2015. 11:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Are The Lessons From The Market Turmoil? [View article]
    "The fact is they cannot compete with UPS and FDX and they're losing so much money (our tax money)."

    And neither UPS nor FDX pay their people minimum wage, so these competitively run businesses must have decided that this is not an economically efficient idea.
    Sep 2, 2015. 12:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch: Expect Much Better Sales In The September Quarter [View article]
    "Google these 3 words: Apple Watch Failure for further clarification."

    You can google "Moon landing faked" for clarification too, but it doesn't make it true.

    The Apple Watch is here to stay. It will only pick up steam, and when it is an undeniably successful product in two years, you will have to claim it is because the design in less bulky, the screen more responsive and less uncomfortable to use at the gym.

    This is not based on fanboy nonsense, but rather based on my own opinion of the wearable space and my own experience with the Watch.

    Being tethered to work 24/7? That is somehow the Watch's fault? How is that different from having a smartphone? Seriously, these are not genuine cases against the Apple Watch.
    Aug 31, 2015. 11:33 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's September 9 Event: Will There Be A Surprise Product? [View article]
    Or Hungary.
    Aug 29, 2015. 03:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple confirms event for Sept. 9 [View news story]
    So close, babasay. Yet you fail to realize that one obvious innovation is encompassed precisely by the things you are citing as being non-innovative. The Watch and Apple Pay combined are an obvious innovation. But that is beside the point. If you can't find other innovations in the way Apple pay is executed (finger print reader) or in the design of the Watch (force touch, digital crown) than you aren't actually familiar with the products.

    It's quite a hobby among some folks to try and claim that Apple no longer innovates, but an honest treatment of what that word means exposes such claims as nonsense. But I understand. Everyone needs a hobby.
    Aug 28, 2015. 04:20 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: $132 Or $76? Pick Your Scenario [View article]

    You do see it mentioned in the comments sometimes, but you won't often see it in the articles. Bulls know the PE is astronomically high but feel that it is irrelevant and bears are usually more focused on talking about the metrics behind the PE and trying to refute the earnings growth assumptions of the bulls.

    I hope you will write an article focusing on the details that matter to you most. I'd enjoy a chance to read it.
    Aug 28, 2015. 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Plan To Destroy The Large Cable Bundle [View article]

    I support your thesis and thought of a short play myself. Except who will be providing all the broadband internet that people use to watch streaming video? The cable companies mostly.

    In my area, broadband costs a certain amount, but that amount rises if you don't bundle it with cable TV. I imagine that Comcast will make every effort to monetize its pipe. Not sure it is the dream short you imagine. They may simply adapt and leverage the control of the puzzle piece that they do own.
    Aug 27, 2015. 07:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: $132 Or $76? Pick Your Scenario [View article]
    You may have inadvertently given Syfy its next hit B-movie. Ebola tsunami.
    Aug 27, 2015. 02:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: $132 Or $76? Pick Your Scenario [View article]
    Here's a freebie:

    Split adjusted EPS

    2012 $0.04
    2013 $0.32
    2014 $0.62
    1st half 2015: $0.12

    Aug 26, 2015. 10:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: $132 Or $76? Pick Your Scenario [View article]
    You can download their financial reports and see for yourself. Today's investor has instant access to an unprecedented amount of information.
    Aug 26, 2015. 10:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wells Fargo upgrades Apple; shares +5.7% as markets jump (updated) [View news story]
    About 110 is a great price, don't you think?
    Aug 26, 2015. 07:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Apple Found The Holy Grail Of Electric Vehicles? [View article]
    This post may have been intended for Seeking Alpha Waves...

    Did you have a stock ticker for VIMANA Aircraft?
    Aug 25, 2015. 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment