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Dialectical Materialist

Dialectical Materialist
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  • Netflix: Has The Selling Just Begun? [View article]
    I'm curious if you could explain what you mean by "excellent p/e".
    Jul 1, 2015. 09:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Dumping Apple Makes Sense For Immediate Growth' - Or Does It? [View article]
    I have something the that no 22 year old man has. The power of invisibility. Specifically invisibility to young women. I can be standing right there and they don't even notice me.

    Look, we don't choose our superpowers.
    Jul 1, 2015. 11:05 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Will Escape The $130 Resistance Level [View article]
    If it's a contraction, it's it's. If it's possession, it's its. It's confusing because when we see a word with its apostrophe s, we usually think possession.
    Jul 1, 2015. 10:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Partying Like It Is 2007 [View article]
    "So why wouldn't the Fed just stay at ZIRP forever?"

    Because the yield curve can indeed invert when it starts at zero. The result is negative interest rates. Europe has already seen some of this. These are interesting times.

    Roger Crandall, the CEO of Mass Mutual commented on this unusual condition in a Fortune interview recently. He called it unprecedented. "When I took economics in college, the chart started at 0%."

    Sometimes it doesn't matter how much gas you give the engine, all you do is flood it. If we don't see some good old inflation soon, deflation will spread. Negative interest rates result from people being more concerned about a return of capital than a return on capital.

    The Fed needs to raise rates and start the long slog back to normalcy because if they don't they will have no bullets left to deal with the next liquidity crunch. And then the velocity of money will fall near zero. And that is a bad thing indeed. And the stock market would reflect that.
    Jul 1, 2015. 12:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Focus On This Trend [View article]

    Actually the 's' cycle of each model has blown away the previous year's sales. I don't think you can assume all those 5s buyers went out and got the 6/6+.

    The 's' cycle always seems to take people by surprise, but it's highly likely that sales of the 6s will handily beat sales of the 6.

    You could make a case that Apple needs to do something interesting to drive demand for the iPhone 7 the following year, but high demand for the 6s is baked in to the product cycle.
    Jun 29, 2015. 10:52 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taylor Swift > Apple [View article]
    But a psychotherapist does know the person they are treating. That is the reason for regular appointments -- to develop a diagnosis.

    You can't logically defend the notion that you know anything about why Cook does what he does regardless of whether your conclusions are flattering or not. Unless you have found a quote of him saying, "I think of musicians as vulnerable minorities, rather like homosexual people," you are simply engaged in creative fiction.
    Jun 28, 2015. 09:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Let's Ignore China (Again) [View article]
    I think the point about limited appeal of gold and silver is a good one, but the case was certainly not made by that video. I doubt that guy would have been able to sell three $50 bills to those people for $10. The whole thing sounds like a catch. If you realize that it is an incredible deal, you assume the property must be stolen and you are about to be caught on camera buying stolen goods.

    On the other hand if you don't know the value of silver, you are stuck trying to assess the likelihood that a random person on the street with a microphone and a kind of creepiness about him is offering you a good deal. Again, even if you think the product he is selling might be worth more than $10 you are asking yourself why he is so eager to part with it.

    This is unlike the bartering that would take place in some kind of disaster area with limited resources. In any sufficiently large disaster, the price of a rare object is partially determined by how long you expect the item to remain rare. If the expectation were that water filters would remain rare for a long time, silver bars would be less valuable. On a desert planet, water is the only true currency. But if you had a sense that normalcy would return someday, your willingness to accept silver as payment increases so its buying power increases.

    If the average person on the street knew there had been a financial crisis and this man might have a legitimate justification for his willingness to part with something of value for below normal market costs, these interviews would have looked very different.
    Jun 27, 2015. 08:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek Out (Again): Markets Back In Turmoil [View article]
    I'm unconvinced the red states would be eager to expand the size of the border they must defend. I know they'd create lots of jobs building that wall (and the one around Austin Texas when the convert the whole city to a prison), but it seems like surrounding themselves on all sides with "illegals" would not be a plan they'd much care for.
    Jun 27, 2015. 06:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taylor Swift > Apple [View article]
    Your willingness to psychoanalyze someone you don't know and then condemn them for the psychological motivations you ascribe to them is more revealing about the way your own my works than you probably realize.
    Jun 27, 2015. 11:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Apple Watch 2 set to have FaceTime camera, iPhone-free data use [View news story]
    And now we see reports that interest in the watch is waning. It may be or it may not be, but coming as it does about four weeks before earnings, this report sure fits a well worn pattern. The negative stories about Apple should only increase as we approach earnings. Never seen such an unsuccessful largest company in the world. Its best days are always behind it except the day it reports record results.
    Jun 26, 2015. 03:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Apple Watch 2 set to have FaceTime camera, iPhone-free data use [View news story]
    Arnie, there are two separate issues here. One is what watchOS 2.0 will allow you to do as of this fall (on your first generation Apple Watch). The second is which features may be included on the next version of the watch which I think realistically will not be available until next year. So no one will be replacing their current watch with one that is light years better this fall. Rather the next OS will improve the functionality of existing Apple Watches.
    Jun 26, 2015. 12:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix's 'The Ranch' Shows Network Flexibility With Programming Business Model [View article]
    Amazing. All these months of sweating my short position and all I needed to do to see a pull back was simply go long. ;)

    I post that I'm throwing in the towel and going long, and Icahn posts that he's out. Here, Mr. Icahn, let me hold that bag for you...
    Jun 25, 2015. 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix's 'The Ranch' Shows Network Flexibility With Programming Business Model [View article]
    With everyone talking about all the things they do right on here all the time, I wish there were more comments where folks try to figure out what they did wrong. After all, every investor knows that making mistakes is inevitable and learning how we respond to those mistakes is part of what we usually call "Valuable Experience".

    In my case, I have been rather obsessed with the idea that a long overdue correction is coming to the market. Not a crash or catastrophe, just a garden variety pullback where the market blinks for a moment.

    But such a pull back, though certainly coming someday, may yet be a ways off. In the meantime, stocks with great stories will continue to rise. NFLX can not meaningfully retreat (if it ever does) until its story changes.

    A possible plot line could be slower international growth than was planned for some reason. Maybe it would be because of economic conditions, maybe competition, or maybe some other notion. But unless and until the narrative changes, NFLX is unlikely to change trends.

    In AAPL's case it was the narrative of contracting margins. The story changed and lots of bulls like me didn't want to hear it. The fundamentals were still so great, after all. But once the concern about margin compression grew legs, it was Katy bar the door.

    Netlfix has announced a 7:1 stock split, it's getting upgraded with targets that include 230 million subscribers in 2020. This story is hard to short.

    So I've changed my mind. I made a mistake. I'm trying to move my positions to more accurately reflect my current ideas. I could cry about the money I lost by being wrong. I could cry about the opportunity cost of not only missing the boat, but betting that it would sink. But in the end, I am doing what all investors should do: Keep questioning your investment thesis and keep making adjustments to bring your portfolio in line with your analysis and risk appetite.
    Jun 23, 2015. 07:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix's 'The Ranch' Shows Network Flexibility With Programming Business Model [View article]
    Ace, I just wanted to give you fair warning. I went long today. With all the positive expectations and the anticipation of the stock split, I couldn't justify continuing to take it on the chin being short. I am still short some shares, but I am long call options under the expectation that NFLX will continue to run up in the near term.

    Now that I'm long, I just thought I should give you a heads up. As we bears capitulate, it could be marking a top. And my timing isn't usually so good. So be careful out there!
    Jun 23, 2015. 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Cash Dilemma [View article]

    My understanding is that the foreign subsidiary would not be able to retire the shares. In other words, the subsidiary could buy stock but it could not "buy back" stock. Apple's float (total number of shares) would stay the same.
    Jun 22, 2015. 11:15 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment