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Dialectical Materialist

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  • Apple Blossoms In The Spring [View article]
    Glenn the "ignore" suggestion was specifically rejected by SA's Editor in Chief Eli Hoffman. The reason cited was that replies to invisible ignored comments would create a confusing mess. The idea was "unworkable" according to Eli.

    I think this analysis assumes that we would all be randomly ignoring different people. I think in practice the overlap would be astounding.

    I couldn't help but wonder if the real reason for not wanting to work through the "ignore" issues was associated with the fact that their profit model is driven by page views. Every comment not seen is potentially an impression not counted. Their advertisers may have a harder time understanding the concept of an interested and engaged user base than the notion that "there sure are a lot of them".
    Jan 23, 2013. 11:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Blossoms In The Spring [View article]
    "@DM, if that report is correct, please extrapolate those numbers over say 5 years and tell me where refresh stands, I think like compounding interest you will be surprised at how quickly it drops off."

    Luke, I can't reconcile declining customer refresh with a 50% increase in iPhone sales at Verizon. Project that out five years and see where it gets you. The validity of a survey of self-reported consumer preference pales in comparison to actual sales figures. I don't think that the survey should be dismissed out of hand, but it should not be given too much weight and certainly shouldn't be projected out five years without any other support.

    The proper takeaway from the refresh survey is that Apple is hugely popular among existing owners. A few percentage points either way is probably not meaningful. Two numbers don't make a series.

    Oh, and I should point out I am not saying that projecting Verizon's sales increase out five years is smart either. It would be just as prone to bad results as projecting the survey out five years.
    Jan 23, 2013. 01:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Get Ready For January 18 [View article]
    I was expecting a warm up act. Oh well.
    Jan 22, 2013. 01:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Get Ready For January 18 [View article]
    And here we are... All dressed up with no place to go. Where's the party?
    Jan 22, 2013. 01:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Forecast: $55B Revenue And 48M iPhones Sold [View article]
    "Apple will miss on earnings."

    No it won't.

    Verizon sold nearly 50% more iPhones YoY. 2/3 of that were iPhone 5's. This means they sold as many iPhone 5's this year as 4s and 4s's last year, and then added in half as many 4's and 4s's for good measure. For an "old" product, they sure are crushing it.
    Jan 22, 2013. 01:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Blossoms In The Spring [View article]
    Yeah, it plummeted from 93% to 88%. Assuming the survey is an accurate measurement, this is still way higher than loyalty to other brands. But I don't think you can put a great deal of faith in the actual number. Suffice it to say that loyalty ranked significantly higher than Apple's competition and call it a day. The reverse is true too, btw. I don't think a change in the survey from 88% to 93% would constitute a surge of brand loyalty. It is simply not that precise. It remains "around 90%" for whatever that's worth.
    Jan 22, 2013. 12:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Blossoms In The Spring [View article]
    I thought of this too, but then someone suggested, rightly I think, that this kind of announcement may require its own event -- if for no other reason than to allow China Mobile to get its share of the limelight.

    However, they may be able to telegraph a deal. Something like, "we are excited about upcoming product announcements" or some such.

    I think, as someone else already suggested, that the mere emphasis on the importance of China in Apple's future is practically Tim Cook saying, "We have a deal, I just can't tell you about it."
    Jan 22, 2013. 02:38 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Blossoms In The Spring [View article]
    "anyone can write anything, apparently, even if they are ignorant of facts and standard definitions of words."

    That is otherwise known as "The First Rule of the Internet."
    Jan 21, 2013. 07:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 1st Quarter 2013 Apple Double Income Stream Strategy [View article]
    Sorry, the dividend is divided in the same manner that the shares are multiplied. If a stock that paid a $1 dividend did a 4:1 split, each share would pay $0.25.
    Jan 21, 2013. 07:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: What To Look For Beyond The Numbers [View article]
    "I'll hold off on providing that list"

    I won't

    This is Philip Elmer-Dewitt's long standing project tracking professional analysts' and "bloggers'" projects for AAPL each quarter.

    It supports what both of you are saying. The overall consensus is 55.96 and 14.20. The "pros" work out to 54.74 and 13.75. The "amateurs" works out to 58.84 and 15.11.

    Interestingly in q1 2012 not one person from the most seasoned pro to the most bullish blogger got anywhere near the actual figures -- they all guessed low. I think we are going to see a repeat surprise to the high end. Andy Zaky may not be far off this time.
    Jan 21, 2013. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Once-A-Year Article On Apple [View article]
    I'm just saying the stock hasn't really moved that much from its level last February to justify why he would be bearish then and bullish now. If anything, the stock was stronger last spring than it is now. But since I expect AAPL to be doing quite well next winter, I suspect the author will not want to miss a chance to say, "See. I told you it was worth a look." Really, it was every bit as much "worth a look" last February.
    Jan 21, 2013. 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: Expect The Unexpected [View article]
    Will 16.64 EPS be special enough for you?
    Jan 21, 2013. 12:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: What To Look For Beyond The Numbers [View article]
    "maybe because of the mini?"

    Possibly. But possibly because the 5th gen iPad rumored to be announced in March will be using a different kind of 9.7" screen. This would cause them to wind down orders of the old 9.7" retina display. Not saying that is the explanation, but it is one possible explanation. It's simply hard to decipher current demand from the forward component orders on existing products. Too many variables in play.
    Jan 21, 2013. 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: Expect The Unexpected [View article]
    "New product releases will continue the companies growth. iphone max + iTV + ipad updates will lead to record revenue and profit in 2013."

    I agree, but Apple guidance never includes unannounced products. Or if it does, they make very conservative projections to avoid giving anything away.

    So it is possible that q2 guidance may disappoint folks who are looking for a reason to not be blown away by the earnings call.

    I think margin projections will be the most important element of guidance.
    Jan 21, 2013. 11:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: What To Look For Beyond The Numbers [View article]
    "Apple didn't count sales until the customer took delivery. Wasn't this one of the big issues in 4Q?"

    Apple seems to mean "take delivery" when they report that x millions bought the phone over the weekend. But when they report sales for each quarter, it does include channel fill (those items shipped to stores like Best Buy in order to be sold).

    This makes it very likely that they will report a monster quarter for the iPhone. They started the quarter with very little channel fill and should end it with stores pretty well stocked as they finally got in front of the demand curve.

    Some argue they got a handle on inventory because demand was weak, but we know that AT&T and Verizon sold more than ever and that the first weekend in China blew away the 4s's first weekend in China, so it seems unlikely that demand was anything but record breaking.

    So you have record breaking sales vs last q1, a release to more countries than last q1, a launch in China in q1, and an empty channel to fill. 53 million seems to low to me.
    Jan 21, 2013. 11:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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