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2tired2talk

2tired2talk
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  • Bojangles' Dishes Up A Tantalizing IPO [View article]
    Thank you for the hard financial info - sales, earnings, shares outstanding, and most importantly, use of proceeds. This was an easier place for me to get that info than finding a prospectus.

    If the company were getting $100mm from the stock sale for growth and improving the balance sheet, this would be a far more interesting story.

    Unfortunately, $24 is a long way from the pre-IPO projection of $16.
    May 11, 2015. 10:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Is My Favorite Idea That Everyone Knows, But That No One Understands [View article]
    What you mean to say is, "I am not really a contrarian."
    May 7, 2015. 11:01 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Is My Favorite Idea That Everyone Knows, But That No One Understands [View article]
    Thank you for this article. I have been staring at BTU for months, and I needed a nudge. Bought 1000 shares, and now I will close my eyes.

    In 2009, I bought 1000 MIC at $2.14, and this week the dividend was raised to $4.28/ year. I am doubling my initial investment every six months on the dividend!

    BTU at $50 in 10 years? If it is, everybody will be recommending the stock, and it will no longer be contrarian. It will be time to sell.
    May 6, 2015. 03:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Idera Pharmaceuticals: Is The Writing On The Wall? [View article]
    Per the recent proxy statement, Pillar is at 20% as of 4/15/2015, and Baker Bros is just under 6%.

    Going with the jockey(s) may be the best bet on IDRA.
    May 6, 2015. 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Betting Against Beta With Iridium [View article]
    There is one huge risk to the IRDM story that tends to be ignored by SA contributors. That is the enormous amount of debt that is being incurred to build out NEXT.

    According to the 10-k balance sheet, that debt is now at $1.3bb. A further reading of the notes indicates that IRDM expects to spend another $1.0bb to finish NEXT (If nothing unforeseen happens). Interest on the $1.3bb is not being paid/expensed. It is being capitalized (accrued) as increasing debt. In the March quarter, $29mm in interest and financing costs was capitalized. This is a completely legal accounting practice, but I think it disguises a big potential future problem...

    By the time NEXT is completed (if on schedule) in 2018, IRDM will likely have $2.5bb in debt requiring quarterly interest payments in excess of $50mm. Any delay in completion may put the viability of the company in jeopardy. More likely, it will require another stock offering.

    Even today, if the $29mm in interest/financing costs were being expensed, they would virtually wipe out IRDM's current earnings.

    I don't know what the future will bring, but this is not a low BETA story.
    May 5, 2015. 04:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How 'Not' Being Long Yahoo Is Now A Contrarian Idea [View article]
    What a dumb article.

    As frogmaier said, "you might as well say SHORT Alibaba", and not waste everyone's time reading the circular reasoning that says YHOO is expensive because BABA is expensive because YHOO is expensive.

    Bottom line, and we all know this... If BABA trades at $100, YHOO at $44 will look very cheap.
    Apr 27, 2015. 03:50 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misunderstanding Of El-Erian's Cash Position [View article]
    Not for a minute do I believe that he is "mostly" in cash. A person as wealthy as he is will have significant real estate holdings, other hard assets such as precious metals, and ownership of businesses either publicly traded or privately held.

    He understands the concept of diversification as well as anyone, and he is smart enough to know that a monster bet on the U.S. dollar is as speculative as a monster bet on anything else.
    Apr 7, 2015. 03:48 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo Is A Value Investment [View article]
    I completely agree with you, but.... Alibaba is not a value investment.

    If BABA were to trade at $60 in six months, it would still be expensive to value investors, and YHOO would only be worth its current $45.

    It is important to remember that the principal asset in the YHOO sum of the parts story is a very expensive stock, and therefore, the biggest risk to YHOO investors.
    Mar 25, 2015. 04:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Rises 2% On A Job Hop? [View article]
    You didn't really say that, did you? "GOOGL is down 2% over the last year".

    The company has grown sales from $6bb to $65bb in ten years, with net income between 20% and 30% of revenue the whole time!

    And you say management is lazy because the stock price got ahead of itself in 2013, and was flat for the past year?

    I don't think you should be writing articles for SA.
    Mar 25, 2015. 03:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Rises 2% On A Job Hop? [View article]
    Dana,

    You missed it on this one. The hiring of a Wall Street CFO is all about capital management, and this will likely prove to be one more highly successful decision on the part of Sergey & Larry.

    For the past three years, the biggest frustration for GOOG investors is the pile of cash that is just sitting there, and the questions about what will they do with it. I think the hiring of Ms Porat is an admission on the part of management that they need help in this area, and they are doing something about it.

    As dividends and share repurchases kick in the next few months, I expect we will find that the move yesterday will only be the first few points of a 100+ point move in the next 12 months.
    Mar 25, 2015. 01:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AutoZone Authorizes Additional Stock Repurchase [View article]
    Hard to imagine that $750mm is just over 1mm shares.
    Mar 24, 2015. 04:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rayonier Advanced Materials: Small-Cap Cash Cow In-The-Making Trading At Steep Discount To Intrinsic Value [View article]
    There could easily be some "portfolio window dressing" going on here. With the market hitting all time highs, a portfolio manager does not want a big red number on the 3/31 performance report.

    There is not a member of any investment committee that will miss a position in RYAM if it is not there, but if there is a -42% in the portfolio, nobody will miss that.

    There are no happy investors in RYAM today, and there is an incentive to be out by 3/31. Maybe the investors will show up in April?
    Mar 23, 2015. 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Duck This Dip- There's More Crazy Stuff Coming [View article]
    David,

    I thank you for sharing your observations here, and I agree with you that the multiple market manipulations by the central banks will bring us to a place that does not end well, but...

    How then do I "duck the dip"? The dollar is only safe relative to worse currencies. Gold and other hard assets are weak. I assume that ducking the dip also means avoiding the stock market.

    What would you have me do as I "duck the dip"
    Mar 17, 2015. 02:16 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rayonier Advanced Materials: Small-Cap Cash Cow In-The-Making Trading At Steep Discount To Intrinsic Value [View article]
    Thank you for this article. I think you explain the valuation questions really well.

    If management is correct and RYAM is able to generate about $200mm in EBITDA, this stock is easily worth $25. ("10 x EBITDA of $200mm" less "net debt of $870mm" = $1130mm.) Divided by 42.5mm shares gets you to $26+.

    Also, there will be about $100mm in free cash annually that can go to debt retirement or share repurchases. Either way shareholders benefit.

    The question, as you point out, is what EBITDA will turn out to be. Two years from now, if EBITDA is $250mm, and net debt is down to $600mm, The same math gets you over $40 per share.

    IF....
    Mar 12, 2015. 02:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google 2.0: A Big Day Is Coming For Investors [View article]
    Ken Sanders makes the important point that Larry and Sergei have total control, and we may be decades from that changing. Therefore, I do not think the "votes don't count 'A'" shares will have that much premium. Some, but not much.

    More importantly, if there is a share repurchase, Google would be irresponsible to buy back A shares if the C shares are trading at a big discount. That alone would be a meaningful support to the C shares.
    Mar 9, 2015. 03:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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