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  • Why I'm Long Bojangles After Q3  [View article]

    Your comment probably does not deserve a response, but I can't help myself.... Yours is among the stupidest comments I have ever read on SA.

    The S & P 500 is down 10% since 11/29 when the article was published. CMG is down 20%. Oil and emerging markets have unraveled. We had one of the worst Decembers ever for the market, followed by a terrible January.

    And you are wondering why nobody is paying attention to a tiny restaurant stock that only has 30% of its shares in the public float! Not only that, but the company has not even reported earnings since 11/29.

    Nobody (including you) has any basis to say there is something intrinsically wrong (or right) with either BOJA or this analysis.
    Feb 3, 2016. 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citigroup's Dividend Is Holding Back Shares  [View article]
    You effectively disprove the point of this article by referencing the 2012 article.

    Since 9/17/2012 when you wrote it, WFC, JPM, and C are all up 50%-55%. I admit total return would have been better with WFC & JPM because of their modest (in 2012) dividends, BUT... BAC is up more than 70% since that time, outperforming the other three while not paying a dividend.

    If your dividend article made any sense, the BAC outperformance could not have happened, while AMZN, FB, GOOGL, UA, NFLX, AZO, and BRK'A, and many others make the basic premise ridiculous.
    Jan 4, 2016. 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citigroup's Dividend Is Holding Back Shares  [View article]

    Because I see your picture, I will cut you some lack here. You're very young, and have a lot to learn.

    Just look at Berkshire Hathaway and AZO to realize how wrong you are about the dividend, not to mention that Apple went from $12 to $700 without paying a dividend.

    There are a number of reasons why C stock has not performed better, in particular the fact that it is hard to trust the financials of a company that has blown itself up twice in 30 years, but the dividend is not one of those reasons.

    If management believes it is buying shares at 80% of tangible book value, it is returning cash to shareholders in the most effective way.
    Dec 31, 2015. 03:33 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Long Bojangles After Q3  [View article]
    I am long BOJA primarily because I love the product. When visiting family in SC, I found that "everybody" loved BoJangles, even the health conscious who were ashamed to eat it. I look forward to a store in Michigan someday.

    I have one concern, however, that has happened since this article was written the end of November. There is a news article online from Florida that eight BOJA stores were suddenly closed 12/7/15, and fixtures and furnishing were for sale. This is in addition to three stores that were closed in TN in September.

    I know that these things happen, but I am a little concerned that the company has not provided any news release to explain/buffer the store closings. Eleven stores closed in three months is a big deal when you are only opening about 60 per year.

    Any thoughts?
    Dec 30, 2015. 11:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: Still Out Of Style, However I Do See A Small Spark In The Tunnel  [View article]

    Please elaborate. I know nothing about WGC, good or bad.

    Where would you go to get better supply and demand info on gold?
    Dec 23, 2015. 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Par Pacific Holdings Q3 Earnings Review: Strong Performance Overall  [View article]
    Regardless of whether or not the additional investment in Laramie proves to be a good thing, offering shares 20% below market to a select group of shareholders is a bad thing for the non-select group.

    If the company had done a rights offering, ALL of the shareholders would have been able to participate in the below market share offering. Instead the company decided to favor some shareholders over other shareholders. It may be legal, but it is still unethical.

    I expected better from Sam Zell. I think he should be ashamed of himself.
    Dec 23, 2015. 11:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: Still Out Of Style, However I Do See A Small Spark In The Tunnel  [View article]
    Thank you for this article.

    I appreciate all three of the charts. They effectively tell the story of supply and demand. As you point out, whether or not this will result in higher (or lower) gold prices remains to be seen.

    You have made your point without an obvious agenda or a conspiracy theory, and I found it helpful.
    Dec 22, 2015. 11:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brookdale Senior Living Should Be On Your Radar  [View article]
    While I agree with you that BKD is extraordinarily cheap, I am trying to verify that Sandell Asset Mgmt is, in fact, owner of 11% of the shares. I have owned BKD shares for a couple of years, and I have never heard of Sandell.

    According to the 5/2015 proxy statement, Sandell is not a 5% owner, and there is no reference to a Sandell representative board member. Glenview is listed at 6%, and apparently has upped that to 9.5% as of 9/30. JANA is at 5.5% as of 9/30.

    With so much of your article gushing about the Sandell presence, I would like accurate information. What am I missing?
    Dec 3, 2015. 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: On The Edge Of A Steep Cliff  [View article]
    You can go a lot of places with a phrase like "shared delusion".

    If a $100 bill were priced according to its commodity value, that price would be pennies. It is only the "shared delusion" that the piece of paper (linen) has monetary value that keeps the price as high as it is.

    The whole system is built on a confidence (shared delusion) that the system will continue to work. Gold has the unique distinction that the "shared delusion" has lasted for about 10,000 years.
    Nov 25, 2015. 10:37 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Par Pacific Holdings Q3 Earnings Review: Strong Performance Overall  [View article]
    "The shares were offered and are expected to be sold to certain pre-existing shareholders and other investors." - per the news release.

    This is one of the more blatant case of double dealing that I have ever seen in a public company. A select group of shareholders gets to buy shares more than 20% below the market price! The same group of shareholders voted that this was a good idea for shareholders.

    As a long time (although small) shareholder, I feel cheated. Not only am I diluted by the increase in shares, but my $28 shares were given to other shareholders for $22.
    Nov 23, 2015. 11:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: On The Edge Of A Steep Cliff  [View article]
    You are correct that gold is a currency, just like the U.S. Dollar, the Euro, Japanese Yen, or Swiss Francs. And you are correct that gold is in a bear market relative to the dollar (not so much against many other currencies).

    A friend of mine who owns about 1000 ounces of gold tells the story of a German client of his who would talk about the German Deutsch Mark losing virtually all of its value after WW I, and then, only a generation later, it happened again after WW II. That is the reason he holds gold.

    Americans have never been faced with a similar experience, but that does not mean it will not one day happen.
    Nov 18, 2015. 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: On The Edge Of A Steep Cliff  [View article]
    The only question for gold investors is, "How many dollars will it cost to buy an ounce of gold 10 or 20 years from now?"

    At our current rate of borrowing, the US will add another $10-15tt in debt in ten years. The $1tt of new dollars created each year divided by GLOBAL annual production of 80mm ounces of gold is $12,500/oz.

    I am willing to bet it will cost more than $1,000 to buy an ounce of gold in 2025.
    Nov 16, 2015. 10:25 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bojangles' Q3 Earnings: Beats Estimates And Moves The Stock  [View article]
    The "burger maker"?

    No mention of chicken in this article? Does this author just use this same piece over and over, but change the numbers and the stock symbol?
    Nov 12, 2015. 07:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Macquarie Infrastructure Corporation: Impressive Dividend Growth Set To Continue  [View article]
    Unfortunately, the performance fees have become a huge issue.

    While I am pleased you have included the performance fees in your discussion, I do not agree it is the price to pay for the superior past performance. In fact, it was the lack of performance fees that helped to make the past stock performance outstanding. For the future, the outperformance has been made nearly impossible.

    As you noted, nearly $500mm has been paid to the manager in the past two years. In fact, this has been paid in only the past 12 months. This $500mm is about 30% of revenue. It exceeds company cash flow by about $200mm. In addition, nearly $300mm was paid in dividends.

    Payment of the performance fee is possible only by increasing debt or issuing more stock, neither of which is good for shareholders.

    The future is not nearly so bright as the past five years, and management should be reevaluating the terms of the performance fee.
    Nov 4, 2015. 11:21 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stick With Citigroup?  [View article]
    It's not that simple, Jeff.

    What you point out regarding yield and P/TBV is true today, but it was not true in 2007, when slower growing C & BAC paid higher dividends than the faster growing WFC, JPM, and Wachovia (yes, I include WB). At the same time C & BAC were trading at a lower P/TBV.

    Everything is skewed today because the banks must "get permission" from the Feds to pay/increase dividends, or to buy back stock. So we don't know what they would be paying if Big Brother were not breathing down their necks.

    BAC & C had bigger holes to dig out of after the financial crisis, and that is reflected in their P/TBV today. The point of this article is what happens next?

    Even if dividends are not raised, my forecast is that the percentage gains for investors in C will outstrip those of investors in WFC in the next 12-24 months.
    Oct 19, 2015. 01:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment