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2tired2talk

2tired2talk
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  • How 'Not' Being Long Yahoo Is Now A Contrarian Idea [View article]
    What a dumb article.

    As frogmaier said, "you might as well say SHORT Alibaba", and not waste everyone's time reading the circular reasoning that says YHOO is expensive because BABA is expensive because YHOO is expensive.

    Bottom line, and we all know this... If BABA trades at $100, YHOO at $44 will look very cheap.
    Apr 27, 2015. 03:50 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misunderstanding Of El-Erian's Cash Position [View article]
    Not for a minute do I believe that he is "mostly" in cash. A person as wealthy as he is will have significant real estate holdings, other hard assets such as precious metals, and ownership of businesses either publicly traded or privately held.

    He understands the concept of diversification as well as anyone, and he is smart enough to know that a monster bet on the U.S. dollar is as speculative as a monster bet on anything else.
    Apr 7, 2015. 03:48 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo Is A Value Investment [View article]
    I completely agree with you, but.... Alibaba is not a value investment.

    If BABA were to trade at $60 in six months, it would still be expensive to value investors, and YHOO would only be worth its current $45.

    It is important to remember that the principal asset in the YHOO sum of the parts story is a very expensive stock, and therefore, the biggest risk to YHOO investors.
    Mar 25, 2015. 04:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Rises 2% On A Job Hop? [View article]
    You didn't really say that, did you? "GOOGL is down 2% over the last year".

    The company has grown sales from $6bb to $65bb in ten years, with net income between 20% and 30% of revenue the whole time!

    And you say management is lazy because the stock price got ahead of itself in 2013, and was flat for the past year?

    I don't think you should be writing articles for SA.
    Mar 25, 2015. 03:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Rises 2% On A Job Hop? [View article]
    Dana,

    You missed it on this one. The hiring of a Wall Street CFO is all about capital management, and this will likely prove to be one more highly successful decision on the part of Sergey & Larry.

    For the past three years, the biggest frustration for GOOG investors is the pile of cash that is just sitting there, and the questions about what will they do with it. I think the hiring of Ms Porat is an admission on the part of management that they need help in this area, and they are doing something about it.

    As dividends and share repurchases kick in the next few months, I expect we will find that the move yesterday will only be the first few points of a 100+ point move in the next 12 months.
    Mar 25, 2015. 01:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AutoZone Authorizes Additional Stock Repurchase [View article]
    Hard to imagine that $750mm is just over 1mm shares.
    Mar 24, 2015. 04:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rayonier Advanced Materials: Small-Cap Cash Cow In-The-Making Trading At Steep Discount To Intrinsic Value [View article]
    There could easily be some "portfolio window dressing" going on here. With the market hitting all time highs, a portfolio manager does not want a big red number on the 3/31 performance report.

    There is not a member of any investment committee that will miss a position in RYAM if it is not there, but if there is a -42% in the portfolio, nobody will miss that.

    There are no happy investors in RYAM today, and there is an incentive to be out by 3/31. Maybe the investors will show up in April?
    Mar 23, 2015. 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Duck This Dip- There's More Crazy Stuff Coming [View article]
    David,

    I thank you for sharing your observations here, and I agree with you that the multiple market manipulations by the central banks will bring us to a place that does not end well, but...

    How then do I "duck the dip"? The dollar is only safe relative to worse currencies. Gold and other hard assets are weak. I assume that ducking the dip also means avoiding the stock market.

    What would you have me do as I "duck the dip"
    Mar 17, 2015. 02:16 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rayonier Advanced Materials: Small-Cap Cash Cow In-The-Making Trading At Steep Discount To Intrinsic Value [View article]
    Thank you for this article. I think you explain the valuation questions really well.

    If management is correct and RYAM is able to generate about $200mm in EBITDA, this stock is easily worth $25. ("10 x EBITDA of $200mm" less "net debt of $870mm" = $1130mm.) Divided by 42.5mm shares gets you to $26+.

    Also, there will be about $100mm in free cash annually that can go to debt retirement or share repurchases. Either way shareholders benefit.

    The question, as you point out, is what EBITDA will turn out to be. Two years from now, if EBITDA is $250mm, and net debt is down to $600mm, The same math gets you over $40 per share.

    IF....
    Mar 12, 2015. 02:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google 2.0: A Big Day Is Coming For Investors [View article]
    Ken Sanders makes the important point that Larry and Sergei have total control, and we may be decades from that changing. Therefore, I do not think the "votes don't count 'A'" shares will have that much premium. Some, but not much.

    More importantly, if there is a share repurchase, Google would be irresponsible to buy back A shares if the C shares are trading at a big discount. That alone would be a meaningful support to the C shares.
    Mar 9, 2015. 03:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BioScrip's Turnaround Story Will Turn Around Some Heads [View article]
    Thank you for some info on this situation. There is not a lot of news or coverage for these small companies.

    Oscar Schafer touted it in a couple of Barron's Roundtables, but not in the last one. It is good to be reminded that they are still large shareholders.
    Feb 12, 2015. 10:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Bearish On Coke [View article]
    So you don't think the stock is going down.

    And you wouldn't short the stock.

    And you have no position in KO.

    But you are recommending that the people who have made lots of money in KO should sell their stock?

    Why did you write this article?
    Feb 11, 2015. 09:55 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola Earnings Preview: Waiting (Forever) For Stock To Trade Through July 1998 High [View article]
    The $1.42 was a pre-split earnings number. Adjusted for the split, earnings were $.71 per share in 1998. So earnings have grown about 6% per year for the 16 years ending in 2014. Not great, but respectable.

    I think it is somewhat unfair to blame management for stock price behavior, when it was the investors who paid 60x earnings in 1998. Management was not being stupid then, investors were.

    Having said that, I also believe every board member and management person who approved of the outrageous compensation package should be terminated. This abuse of shareholders is shameful. And I believe Warren Buffett proved, by his behavior, that it is not true to say, his "personal and professional integrity is beyond reproach".
    Feb 9, 2015. 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Macquarie Infrastructure to buy Bayonne Energy Center in $720M deal [View news story]

    My-oh-my, these guys are good.

    They buy, what may be, the newest electric generation facility in the the New York City area. They own the transmission cable under the Hudson River, as well. The Bayonne IMTT facility will now get cheap electricity, and the power plant may get cheap fuel from IMTT. And they will gain $0.25$-0.40 per share in free cash.

    My cost basis is $2.15 in April of 2009, and this year I will get back double that in dividends.

    If only I had known back then what was coming.......
    Feb 4, 2015. 11:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rayonier Advanced Materials: It Should Not Take A Genius To Run This Business [View article]
    It is not loyalty to RYAM, as much as, "I have seen this before." I actually know nothing about the business RYAM is in, but I do have experience with bottom fishing.

    I am willing to bottom fish when I have a reasonable understanding of why the shares are down today, and a reason to believe that the shares will trade higher in the future.

    Obviously nothing has gone well in the past six months for RYAM, and I understand completely that investors are frustrated and willing to sell at a large loss. The fact is that the price of the commodity is lower than a year ago. The same thing is happening to all of the oil companies since July, when RYAM went public. (Does that mean I buy or sell the oil stocks?)

    It is, however, not true to say, "no one is buying". Somebody has purchased 1.6mm shares of RYAM today, and I understand the buying. These are the people who are looking forward, rather than back.

    RYAM paid down $50mm in debt in only six months. The forecast for EBITDA is $200-$220mm, not the $265mm in 2014, but enough to make the company worth more than $18. Debt reduction is a priority. Market share remains strong, and the product is apparently not becoming obsolete. Hopefully, management is being cautious in its forecast.

    For these reasons, $30 in two years still makes sense to me, so I bought a bit more at $17.90.
    Jan 28, 2015. 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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