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  • Gold: On The Edge Of A Steep Cliff [View article]
    You can go a lot of places with a phrase like "shared delusion".

    If a $100 bill were priced according to its commodity value, that price would be pennies. It is only the "shared delusion" that the piece of paper (linen) has monetary value that keeps the price as high as it is.

    The whole system is built on a confidence (shared delusion) that the system will continue to work. Gold has the unique distinction that the "shared delusion" has lasted for about 10,000 years.
    Nov 25, 2015. 10:37 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Par Pacific Holdings Q3 Earnings Review: Strong Performance Overall [View article]
    "The shares were offered and are expected to be sold to certain pre-existing shareholders and other investors." - per the news release.

    This is one of the more blatant case of double dealing that I have ever seen in a public company. A select group of shareholders gets to buy shares more than 20% below the market price! The same group of shareholders voted that this was a good idea for shareholders.

    As a long time (although small) shareholder, I feel cheated. Not only am I diluted by the increase in shares, but my $28 shares were given to other shareholders for $22.
    Nov 23, 2015. 11:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: On The Edge Of A Steep Cliff [View article]
    You are correct that gold is a currency, just like the U.S. Dollar, the Euro, Japanese Yen, or Swiss Francs. And you are correct that gold is in a bear market relative to the dollar (not so much against many other currencies).

    A friend of mine who owns about 1000 ounces of gold tells the story of a German client of his who would talk about the German Deutsch Mark losing virtually all of its value after WW I, and then, only a generation later, it happened again after WW II. That is the reason he holds gold.

    Americans have never been faced with a similar experience, but that does not mean it will not one day happen.
    Nov 18, 2015. 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: On The Edge Of A Steep Cliff [View article]
    The only question for gold investors is, "How many dollars will it cost to buy an ounce of gold 10 or 20 years from now?"

    At our current rate of borrowing, the US will add another $10-15tt in debt in ten years. The $1tt of new dollars created each year divided by GLOBAL annual production of 80mm ounces of gold is $12,500/oz.

    I am willing to bet it will cost more than $1,000 to buy an ounce of gold in 2025.
    Nov 16, 2015. 10:25 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bojangles' Q3 Earnings: Beats Estimates And Moves The Stock [View article]
    The "burger maker"?

    No mention of chicken in this article? Does this author just use this same piece over and over, but change the numbers and the stock symbol?
    Nov 12, 2015. 07:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Macquarie Infrastructure Corporation: Impressive Dividend Growth Set To Continue [View article]
    Unfortunately, the performance fees have become a huge issue.

    While I am pleased you have included the performance fees in your discussion, I do not agree it is the price to pay for the superior past performance. In fact, it was the lack of performance fees that helped to make the past stock performance outstanding. For the future, the outperformance has been made nearly impossible.

    As you noted, nearly $500mm has been paid to the manager in the past two years. In fact, this has been paid in only the past 12 months. This $500mm is about 30% of revenue. It exceeds company cash flow by about $200mm. In addition, nearly $300mm was paid in dividends.

    Payment of the performance fee is possible only by increasing debt or issuing more stock, neither of which is good for shareholders.

    The future is not nearly so bright as the past five years, and management should be reevaluating the terms of the performance fee.
    Nov 4, 2015. 11:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stick With Citigroup? [View article]
    It's not that simple, Jeff.

    What you point out regarding yield and P/TBV is true today, but it was not true in 2007, when slower growing C & BAC paid higher dividends than the faster growing WFC, JPM, and Wachovia (yes, I include WB). At the same time C & BAC were trading at a lower P/TBV.

    Everything is skewed today because the banks must "get permission" from the Feds to pay/increase dividends, or to buy back stock. So we don't know what they would be paying if Big Brother were not breathing down their necks.

    BAC & C had bigger holes to dig out of after the financial crisis, and that is reflected in their P/TBV today. The point of this article is what happens next?

    Even if dividends are not raised, my forecast is that the percentage gains for investors in C will outstrip those of investors in WFC in the next 12-24 months.
    Oct 19, 2015. 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stick With Citigroup? [View article]
    Because of the modest dividend, that cash remains with the company and increases book value. Adding roughly $1 per quarter to tangible book value gets BV to $65+ by year-end 2016. Much of that cash will be buying back shares with 90-cent dollars.

    It is pretty easy to justify a $70 share price in 15 months.
    Oct 15, 2015. 03:06 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell CSX After Q3 Revenue Miss [View article]
    The author is going to run into a lot of things if he continues to drive with his eyes focused on the rear view mirror.

    DESPITE a 50% loss in coal revenues in the past few years:
    - CSX has reported record third quarter earnings
    - has 330 million shares fewer (25% fewer) shares than it had eight years ago
    - has improved its operating ratio to 68.3

    Let's try looking forward... I expect CSX to continue to figure out how to manage the drop in coal and crude revenues, neither of which are going to zero, by the way. Trains with fewer coal cars on them, can pull cars loaded with a lot of things that are on trucks now because the trains have been hauling coal for years. Shares will continue to be repurchased. The near monopoly that the large railroads have will continue to be in place. The stock could trade at a more reasonable 16-18 times earnings. Trade with Cuba could explode. Global demand for coal may very well continue to increase as many forecasters point out.

    Your conclusion: "Sell CSX because coal revenues are down" is pretty simplistic.
    Oct 14, 2015. 11:07 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RF Industries: A 6.4% Dividend Yield May Be Obscuring An Acquisition Growth Story [View article]

    With the third quarter numbers published, do you continue to feel the same way, or are you, as I am, somewhat miffed that revenue could jump 60%, and the company still was not able to generate any income to speak of?

    I am of the mind that there were certainly some merger & acquisition expenses in the quarter that will not be recurring, and I will give them another quarter to show us "clean numbers", but in my opinion, the acquisitions should have shown us more than they did in the second quarter.
    Revenue is not much good, if it does not generate income.
    Oct 13, 2015. 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CSX Corporation Is Fairly Valued [View article]
    Exactly! The question is what will the price be in 3 years? In 5 years? If CSX is $42 in 3 years, I am up 50% plus the dividend. I'm good with that, whether or not it is "fair priced" today.
    Oct 8, 2015. 06:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bojangles' Is Still Looks Pricey After The Pullback [View article]

    Time to buy more. Although I did not think I would get the chance, I can buy BOJA at what I consider to be a reasonable price; 20x forecast 2016 EPS of .85.
    Sep 29, 2015. 11:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CSX Corp. - Reasons To Buy The Drop [View article]
    Sorry, I missed a decimal on the share count. It should be 1.33bb to less than 980mm shares.
    Sep 23, 2015. 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CSX Corp. - Reasons To Buy The Drop [View article]
    At least as important as the points that you make here, is the steadily decreasing share count. CSX has reduced outstanding shares from 133mm to fewer than 98mm in the past ten years. Somebody on the management team apparently has my interests at heart...
    Sep 22, 2015. 02:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm Will See Its SoC Market Share Erode In The Next Few Years [View article]
    You make a compelling case regarding the changing competitive landscape for QCOM, and I appreciate that insight.

    I disagree, however, with your claim the QCOM is "clearly overvalued". For a company with loads of cash, Enterprise Value is much important than market cap. In fact, I would say that QCOM's astonishingly low valuation is due to the factors which you highlighted above.

    When you factor in QCOM's $16/share in cash, EV/E is only about 8.5x expected 2015 earnings. I am pretty sure this compares favorably with most, if not all, of its peers. The same would be true for EV/S.
    Sep 16, 2015. 03:02 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment