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  • Bojangles' Is Still Looks Pricey After The Pullback [View article]

    Time to buy more. Although I did not think I would get the chance, I can buy BOJA at what I consider to be a reasonable price; 20x forecast 2016 EPS of .85.
    Sep 29, 2015. 11:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CSX Corp. - Reasons To Buy The Drop [View article]
    Sorry, I missed a decimal on the share count. It should be 1.33bb to less than 980mm shares.
    Sep 23, 2015. 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CSX Corp. - Reasons To Buy The Drop [View article]
    At least as important as the points that you make here, is the steadily decreasing share count. CSX has reduced outstanding shares from 133mm to fewer than 98mm in the past ten years. Somebody on the management team apparently has my interests at heart...
    Sep 22, 2015. 02:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm Will See Its SoC Market Share Erode In The Next Few Years [View article]
    You make a compelling case regarding the changing competitive landscape for QCOM, and I appreciate that insight.

    I disagree, however, with your claim the QCOM is "clearly overvalued". For a company with loads of cash, Enterprise Value is much important than market cap. In fact, I would say that QCOM's astonishingly low valuation is due to the factors which you highlighted above.

    When you factor in QCOM's $16/share in cash, EV/E is only about 8.5x expected 2015 earnings. I am pretty sure this compares favorably with most, if not all, of its peers. The same would be true for EV/S.
    Sep 16, 2015. 03:02 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo Still Has A Lot Of Options After The IRS Feedback [View article]
    The IRS did not actually deny the tax-free spin-off. The IRS simply refused to make a ruling ahead of time on whether or not the spin-off would be tax-free.

    This means there is still a possibility (probably slim) that the spin-off could be tax-free. Can you imagine what happens to YHOO stock price, if the spin-off does turn out to be tax-free?

    My guess is that YHOO "tests the waters" by spinning off a fraction of the stock, gets an official IRS ruling, and then plans for the future. To one of your points... if YHOO continues to hold a remaining 300mm or so BABA shares, while that company continues to grow, YHOO shareholders still win big.
    Sep 10, 2015. 03:35 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Utilities Are Not The Safe Haven You Think They Are [View article]
    Actually, gold is a CURRENCY, as is the U.S. Dollar, the Euro, Swiss Francs, and the Chinese Yuan. Currency provides a means by which trade may take place. Currency is usually considered "safe" money.

    Gold has the unique attribute that is has been a currency throughout almost the entirety of human history.

    I can choose to hold $500,000 in US Dollars, or I can choose today to put a $100,000 equivalent into the five currencies named above (including gold). In ten years, which will have the most purchasing power?

    I don't know the answer, but it would not surprise me if my 90 ounces of gold buy more than 100,000 US dollars in ten years.
    Sep 10, 2015. 10:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Utilities Are Not The Safe Haven You Think They Are [View article]
    The significant issue for utilities in 2000-2002 was the unwinding of the energy marketing businesses after Enron. The fallout subsequently included Dynegy, Calpine, AES, Reliant Energy, and many other stocks that fell 90% or more. Many more mainstream utilities were also affected by the fallout, as owning electric utilities became anathema for money managers.

    The fact that you did not address this one-off event in your "analysis" of utility company risks, discredits you basic premise.
    Sep 9, 2015. 11:11 AM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bojangles' Is Still Looks Pricey After The Pullback [View article]
    I am always fascinated by the authors who believe that a formulary model to forecast the future is in any way helpful to making an investment decision today.

    There is one thing we know for sure: Things will not work out the way your formula says they will work out. Life (business) does not grow at fixed rates into the future.

    Having said that, I basically agree with you the BOJA is somewhat expensive at $20.80. But I am not going to sell you my shares at that price. My value bias understands your position, but my investing experience creates a dilemma. If the next move is to $30, I may never see my reasonable buy target of $16.

    My dilemma is that using your DCF model, I never would have bought SBUX or CMG or UA or a multitude of other great growth stories, not to mention the goofy stuff like NFLX, AMZM, and CRM. Some times you must pay too much, in order to have the opportunity to participate in the long move.
    Sep 2, 2015. 10:55 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RF Industries: A 6.4% Dividend Yield May Be Obscuring An Acquisition Growth Story [View article]
    Thank you for this article. It is a pretty obscure company to write about. I have been in and out since about 2006.

    I am excited to see what the "beefed up' company can bring to the bottom line. If sales do, in fact, come in around $40mm, and 8% comes to the bottom line, there will finally be people paying attention. RFIL has always been able to generate a lot of cash.

    One follow up to the $14 run-up in 2013... That was an example of how an activist investor can make something out of nothing by taking a position, and then telling a story to the right people.

    Good or Bad. Depends on which side of the trade you were on. I was pleased to get out at $8, and shocked (then disappointed) to see $14.
    Aug 31, 2015. 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola's Clock Is Ticking [View article]
    Who is John Galt?
    Aug 18, 2015. 01:44 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola's Clock Is Ticking [View article]
    "strategic shifts KO is making to stay relevant"???

    With $46bb in sales, and 20 brands with over $1bb in sales, it is safe to say that KO is relevant.

    It is the author who should be concerned about staying relevant.
    Aug 18, 2015. 08:04 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Low P/E Stock Of The Day No. 15: The AES Corporation [View article]
    Fair request. I will give you specific feedback.

    It is apparent that you are doing a P/E screen to identify companies to write about. It is also apparent that you do little research into the operations or the history of those companies. I have owned both MIC & AES for several years, and for that reason, I recognize how little historical perspective you bring to these articles.

    Regarding MIC: In it's years of existence, the P/E of this company has been basically between 40 and infinity. Imagine my surprise to see it screened as a low P/E stock because a one-time restructuring gain in 2014 skewed the earnings report. That it showed up on your screen is not your fault, but your not addressing the fact that it was a one-time gain is very poor (embarassing) research. Your subsequent conclusions were then based on a complete falsehood. (MIC may or may not be a good investment at current prices, but it is not for any of the reasons you gave.)

    Regarding AES: Your charts show historical sales, and cash flow numbers, but you once again do not address that these cash flow numbers are skewed by a history of buying and selling assets. You say management is not doing the right things, yet this company is one of the few strong survivors of the utility deregulation business that took down Enron, Calpine, Dynergy, Reliant Energy, and a host of others.

    In addition, any article about AES should also comment on the 2011 purchase of DPL. This purchase provided AES with a stable source of cash flow for the first time in its history. They may have paid too much, but because of this purchase, AES is a different company today than it was before the purchase.

    You say the company needs a "management shakeup", but are you really qualified to make that statement?

    I see management that weathered the utility deregulation meltdown, that survived the 2008 financial crisis although admittedly overleveraged, that bought for itself a stable source of cash flow (DPL) to enable it to grow its international electric generation business, has repurchased more than 14% of its stock in the last 5 years, while increasing its divdend from 0 to $.30, and is growing earnings while facing a strengthening dollar that hurts since most of the operations are non-US. Not to mention the fact that low rainfall in Brazil is negatively affecting the hydoelectric production in Brazil. All, or most of these could/should have been addressed in your article.

    My specific feedback is that you should know much more about the companies you write about, or your articles are not worth reading
    Aug 17, 2015. 09:59 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Low P/E Stock Of The Day No. 15: The AES Corporation [View article]
    When I read your "Low P/E Stock of the Day No. 2: MIC", I thought you didn't know what you were talking about because you used a one-quarter, one-time restructuring gain to call a stock "low P/E".

    This article removes all doubt. You don't know what you are talking about.
    Aug 13, 2015. 01:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bear Is Alive! [View article]
    Cramer says, "There's always a bull market somewhere."

    You used an awful lot of words to say, "There's always a bear market somewhere."

    Not much help to me.
    Aug 4, 2015. 09:25 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pipelines Still Offer Dividend Shade In The Broiling Oilpatch [View article]
    I wonder how much of the current sell-off in the pipeline stocks and MLP's is related to the leveraged mutual funds/ETF's that came into being in the past three years.

    They have been able to borrow at basically 0%, and use the debt to be 25%-30% leveraged in stocks paying 6%-10% dividends. Like any leveraged position, it is a money machine......until it's not.

    With investors dumping the falling pipelines, the selling is exacerbated by the selling of the leveraged funds/ETF's who are getting killed due to the leverage.
    Aug 3, 2015. 04:03 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment