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2tired2talk

2tired2talk
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  • Seadrill Looking To Make Lemonade From Lemons [View article]
    Your four points highlight why (right or wrong) I will NOT be buying SDRL.

    1. Prudent management that wants to take advantage of a down-cycle would conserve cash to buy back shares or to build a war chest for outside acquisitions. It would not pay a huge dividend.

    2. Of course they are going to cut the dividend! Just fess up to it. Management should be ashamed of themselves.

    3. His purchase of the shares is of course a good thing, but if buying stock is a good thing, why is the company not buying its own shares?

    4. What is this? His "special formula"? This is management covering up for something. It just feels icky.

    Management is misbehaving in a lot of ways. I am not interested.
    Oct 16 03:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Bought Cree On The Earnings Drop [View article]
    Now, at $34/share with $10/share in cash, Buffett may become interested.

    As I noted in my October comment, Buffett cares about valuation first, then what the company does.
    Oct 2 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Is John Galt And What Stocks Would He Buy? Part I [View article]
    Needless to say.... I am a fan of Ayn Rand.

    A fresh read of Atlas Shrugged in the context of the current administration shows how prophetic she was.

    I am not sure which stocks Galt would buy, but I am sure he would NOT buy General Electric, which requires government incentives to make many of its product lines profitable.

    Aug 6 08:56 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading Yahoo Into An Alibaba IPO [View article]
    This is perhaps the most worthless article I have ever read on SA.
    Aug 4 10:28 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wells Fargo Trumps Citigroup's Bull Thesis Into Earnings [View article]
    Careful Robert!

    You are going to run into the car in front of you if you keep staring at the rear view mirror.
    Jul 10 09:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Yahoo Is Still Going To $50 Per Share [View article]
    EB,

    You make several good points here, and for sure there is some truth in each of them. In my opinion, (d) offers the best explanaiton for the stock weakness.

    If the IPO does not happen on 8/8 as expected, it will be pushed into mid-September at the earliest, because Wall Street goes on vacation for August. If bad market conditions postpone the IPO "indefinately", YHOO trades below $30 as traders look for something hotter.

    When the IPO date becomes more concrete, the dog & pony shows will begin in earnest, and the indications of interest from the mutual funds and money managers will drive YHOO shares higher.

    Until those things are in place, YHOO's value is very much in question.
    Jul 8 01:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Never 'Fall In Hatred' With A Stock - Especially Facebook [View article]
    Actually, I am not missing your point. You are correct that FB is nowhere near as overvalued as many of the internet stocks (including YHOO) were in 1999-2000. There may never have been a time of overvaluation comparable to that.

    My point, that you apparently missed, is that the revenue growth trajectory of YHOO in 1994-98 may well have been more explosive than that of FB in comparable years. That is how you should have made the FB comparison to YHOO

    In 1996, YHOO did not know Google was coming in just a few years. Today, FB does not know who will be its "Google" five-ten years from now. If there is one, Facebook's $160bb market cap on $8bb in revenue will look very expensive.
    Jun 9 04:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Never 'Fall In Hatred' With A Stock - Especially Facebook [View article]
    A better comparison with YHOO would be to use the sales numbers for the FIRST five years after it's IPO (1997-2001) or better yet, include two pre-IPO years like you did with FB.

    FB may work out fine, but the comparison you are using is meaningless.
    Jun 9 03:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo: I Am Now A Believer [View article]
    Then you should have written about the pot of gold in your analysis.

    Your analysis only talked about the box.
    Jun 5 10:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo: I Am Now A Believer [View article]
    Apparently you have not been investing very long.

    You are trying to sell the pretty wrapped up box, because you like the ribbon and the bow.

    It's not the box that is important here! It is the pot of gold inside the box that matters.
    Jun 5 10:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo: I Am Now A Believer [View article]
    I agree with DoctoRx.

    YHOO as a standalone business is worth $12--$18. And based on your analysis, that is all it would be worth.

    The big casino is everything else: $4.50 in cash + $8 or $9 in YHOO Japan + 23% of Alibaba which could be worth $25-$55 depending on where in the range of $100bb-$250bb Alibaba is actually priced. Of course there are multiple tax issues, but....

    Why make noise about the $15 when there is another $35-$65/share to talk about?
    Jun 5 09:04 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Adios DirecTV: New Buyback Champ Is AutoZone [View article]
    Now this is an interesting article. Thank you.

    I would have thought GME and STX would have hit your screen as well. It may have something to do with time frames.

    If STX hits its stated goal of 250mm shares by the end of 2014, they will have reduced outstanding shares nearly 50% in about 4 years.
    May 29 04:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is KMR The Best Stock In The Kinder Morgan Group? [View article]
    Shockingly bad analysis! I can't believe you have "followers"


    1. The only way KMR can ever outperform KMP is if the relative price discount is decreasing. They are equal ownership in the same company.
    2. How can you talk about a five year time frame, and then post a chart with a 3 1/2 year time frame to support your claim.
    3. It is ludicrous to use stock price changes in a short time frame to support a conclusion,"it is clear that KMR is the best in terms of growth."


    While I think KMR may be a good investment for some, there is no doubt which is the best stock in the group for long term growth: Richard Kinder owns 243,000,000 shares of KMI, and only about 300,000 each of KMR & KMP. The guy who knows the story best has placed his bet on KMI.
    May 29 09:14 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Cisco Is Heading To $32 [View article]
    It is pretty easy to get to $32.

    How about 9 times EBITDA of $16bb + net cash: $144bb + $30bb = $174bb/5.2bbshares = $33.46/sh.

    Or 12 times 2015 EPS estimates of $2.20 + net cash/sh: $26.40 + $6 = $32.40.

    Add in the possibility of the stock trading at 15 times earnings, or a $20bb share repurchase..... This story looks just like MSFT at $26.50 only 18 months ago.
    May 15 11:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Iridium Announces First-Quarter 2014 Results; Company Affirms 2014 and Long-Range Outlook [View article]
    I am not an accountant but I know, if you have $1bb in debt on your credit facility, there should be an interest expense somewhere on the income statement. Since this is by no means a AAA credit, I would expect an interest rate of 6-8%.

    Shouldn't there be a $15-$20mm interest expense reported somewhere that effectively wipes out the $15mm in earnings for the quarter?
    May 1 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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