GregZw

Roubini Hates Gold: Is He Wrong Again?

So under his theory as long as there is plenty of slack and resources around, the government can print as much money as it wants and not cause any inflation?

Sign me up!

Japan: Possible Culprit to Drive U.S. Interest Rates Higher

The first major player to dump their long term treasuries will start a collapse and be able to buy them back at 10 cents on the dollar whether its China, Japan, or the FED. The rest of the players will likely lose.

Japan: Possible Culprit to Drive U.S. Interest Rates Higher

Only a fool would tie up money for 10 years at 2% until the FED shows it can remove the excess liquidity it created without killing the economy.


On Sep 28 02:02 AM Does nobody understand what long term actually means? wrote:

> The unconventional question is to ask what will drive bond yields
> down. If you accept that interest rates are going to be at zero for
> years to come because the priority is to get fiscal policy back on
> track then bond yields of 2.5, 3 whatever become attractive. We will
> see 2%yields on 10 year Treasuries within the next two years. <br/>
>
> And who is going to buy them to push them there? Banks.

Japan: Possible Culprit to Drive U.S. Interest Rates Higher

You assume Bernanke can continue to control interest rates. The first hint that he can't will blow up the bond market.


On Sep 28 08:42 AM From Harvard wrote:

> This bull market simply cannot be stopped with interest rates still
> soooo low. Despite booming projected GDP growth and stock market
> up 53% from lows, Bernanke has given no hint of raising them.
>
> good articles: tinyurl.com/n854tt
>
> this is still a dip buy market

Japan: Possible Culprit to Drive U.S. Interest Rates Higher

The U.S savings rate will have difficulty keeping up with the increase in federal state and local taxes.

As the FED moves from buying to selling Treasuries, and the Treasury continues to increase their selling of bonds to finance the deficit, I think we will see a bubble bursting in Treasuries.

The Specter of Excess Capacity

You all worry too much. The FED will print enough money to keep us in the zone between inflation and deflation (stagflation).

U.S. Deficit Tops $1 Trillion. What's the Big Deal?

How about sending me YOUR checkbook and credit cards!

Have You Seen the M3 Lately?

What about tax induced inflation? If taxes for business go up 10% next year (which is way lower than my business because they tripled my property taxes) most will have to pass through or shut down.

If I think Cap and Trade or Healthcare will increase my taxes by a similar amount for years to come, I will plan my business to reach equilibrium at the higher prices.

The U.S. Bailout Circus Is Just Getting Started

Why are you "baffled by the runup in oil prices". You seem to understand the Chinese are "investing" in commodities. They are filling their second "strategic petroleum reserve" and are talking about a third.

If you take a view longer than a few months, you will realize many of the oil exploration projects have been canceled or put on hold. Rigs are a dime a dozen now.

It won't take the emerging markets long to take up the slack from what U.S. demand has fallen.

Deflation vs. Inflation: The Great Debate Rages On

Inflation is coming and it will be caused by a different force than the last spirals. This one will be created by the massive deficit. The government has not choice but to tax and/or print their way out of it.

When your a business and have already cut expenses to the bone to survive, you must either pass tax increases on or perish.

Think about every soda, beer, wine or cigarette going up 10% at every vending machine, restaurant, grocery store, and sports event. How about sales taxes (percent of sale) on the soda's?

Local governments will begin raising your property tax rates to make up for lost revenue from declining appraisals.

Income taxes WILL rise. Your benefits will become taxable and your deductions phased out. This is all happening to every small business not just individuals. These ultimately must also be passed on.

You will bear the costs of "cap and trade" but the benefits will go to greedy politicians and corporate pirates not the environment but believe me the cost of everything that creates or uses energy will go up dramatically especially your electric bill.

Again, same for small businesses and they will have to pass these increases along or perish.

When the inflation appears during the next two years, think about whether it came from taxes or just newly printed money.

Bond Expert: Wednesday Outlook

I think the potential for inflation is grossly underestimated. Wage inflation is not only impacted by weak labor markets and "slack" in the economy, but also by increased labor costs which must be passed on to the consumer.

Taxing health insurance benefits not only costs the employee but also the companies who must match the FICA and Medicare payments on the additional income (or pay the penalty for not offering insurance).

Increases in property taxes, "cap and trade" costs, rising interest rates, higher tax rates, decreasing tax deductions, and eliminating the tax incentives for capital equipment will all have to be passed through to the product/service prices.

After the excess capacity in the system is flushed out of the economy (bankruptcy) and there is a slight pick up, the "slack" will disappear quite rapidly and companies will be able to pass these on to the consumer.

If the economy doesn't pick up, these additional costs will still have to be passed on or the companies can't survive and slack will still disappear.

--A Small Business Owner

Obama's Sure-Fire Formula for Accelerating Inflation

I smell the same fish. A salary of $250,000/year will be in the highest tax bracket and below the poverty level within 5 years!

Give Obama 40 More Years in Office!

Anyone with good tele prompter skills could have delivered those speeches. Anyone with common sense or experience with politicians can see right through the rhetoric.


On Jun 17 07:54 AM Tom Armistead wrote:

> My wife and I listened to Obama's interviews with CNBC and Bloomberg
> yesterday and we were impressed with his willingness to address the
> issues and propose solutions. He was not issuing empty promises:
> he made careful use of the word "if." If the US addresses its fundamental
> problems progress will be made.
>
> That would mean a coherent 1) energy policy, controlling the increase
> in 2) medical costs, and achieving adequate public 3) eduction.
> Also, today's announcement on financial re-regulation is critical.
> Derugulatin created chaos in the financial system.
>
> Most of this article's charts cover 50 years or more. It took the
> US a long time to wander this far into the woods: it may take 50
> years of effective and farsighted leadership to undo the harm that
> has been done. This is a democracy. If Americans select effective
> and farsighted leaders, along the lines of Obama, then great things
> are possible.

10-Year Treasury Note Yields May Not Be A Threat Yet

Yields on long term treasuries can begin rising at any time. In fact, if the FED wasn't buying them from the Treasury they would be rising quite rapidly. If the FED just stops buying we will see them rise to their real fair market value.

The worst part of this is that when the FED has to sell them we can expect rates will be much higher than when they bought them causing huge losses at the FED.