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  • AIG is "a once-in-a-generation opportunity," according to Bernstein, predicting a revaluation of the shares now trading for about 0.5x book value. Bernstein compares post-bailout AIG to a "demutualized" insurer - think MetLife, whose former CEO happens to be AIG's current one, Bob Benmosche. If AIG is a buy, says Todd Sullivan, the TARP warrants surely are too. Shares +2% today. [View news story]
    March 2009 has ownership of the once in a generation lexicon. Gotta wait about 6 more years before it's available again. That won't stop the pundits though. I admit AIG has had a great run since the reverse split though.
    Jan 28, 2013. 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Things You Should Know About The LTRO [View article]
    This is a great summary. Thanks.
    Jan 24, 2013. 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deep Dive: Financial Repression Reconsidered [View article]
    Very good article. Something to think about on the weekend.
    Jan 18, 2013. 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon (DNDN) +12% premarket after an upgrade to Buy with price target of $10 from Bernstein. The analysts see steady growth for the company's provenge and say the chance of takeover or mergers provide additional upside. [View news story]
    I think of Dendreon the same way I think of Cryolife. Both have an exotic, difficult to produce and deliver product that will always have a market. They aren't ever going to be growth companies. Just profitable providers of niche products. Dendreon still isn't profitable yet though eventually it will be.

    Buyout, um no.

    I do not own shares of either company but I watch them both.
    Jan 11, 2013. 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stop Paying Me A Dividend And Start Buying Back Shares [View article]
    Ira + dividend paying shares = unambiguous good. Furthermore there is a time and place for a company to pay dividends and there is a time a place to buy back shares.
    Jan 10, 2013. 02:33 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Windows 8 (MSFT) is being adopted at a slower rate than the much-maligned Vista, and a much slower rate than Windows 7, according to usage data from Net Applications. As of Dec. 22, Win. 8 was used on an estimated 1.6% of all Windows PCs. This compares with 2.2% for Vista at a similar point in its release history, and 6%+ for Win. 7. Consumer PC demand remains tepid, and many enterprises have made it clear they have no interest in upgrading to Win. 8, at least for now. [View news story]
    Windows 8 will be just fine. Microsoft can wait as long as they need to.
    Dec 27, 2012. 04:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On Watchlists [View article]
    Outstanding article.

    I've put things on my watchlist and then not even a month later the story has changed and there is no need to watch them anymore. Mostly what remains is big companies where the story evolves slowly. I tried keeping a watch list for new ideas but 90 percent of the time I get rid of them. Now I just watch industries and put the new ideas in the relevant category and take them out again after a few months (unless they are worth watching for longer).

    I like your idea of vetting the buys against the sells in the portfolio itself. Thanks.
    Dec 26, 2012. 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Charts Of The Day, Equity Volume Edition [View article]
    "it’s the shallowest and most useless form of liquidity. If the primary purpose of the stock market is to allocate capital to companies which need it, then you could happily lose 90% of the volume in the market without a noticeable decrease in utility"

    That's the quote of the day. Stock market is just boring old business and most intelligent people are starting to see it that way and that is a GOOD thing.
    Nov 28, 2012. 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon Plunges On Restructuring News, Stock Downgraded [View article]
    Ugh. Revenues of approximately 80 million again. Far below expectations. Not good enough for the first cancer vaccine. Call me captain obvious.

    I took my lumps last November. The new C.E.O. now has one quarter under his belt. Time (about 2 more quarters) will tell this tale.
    Aug 1, 2012. 03:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citigroup says hospital stocks are the big winner in the Supreme Court's healthcare decision and expects the group to trade materially higher. The firm recommends buying the following on strength: Universal Health (UHS +7.8%), HCA Holdings (HCA +9.5%), Community Health (CYH +7.5%) and Tenet Healthcare (THC +6%).  [View news story]
    Hmmmm. Hospitals will definitely benefit in the emergency room. I heard another expert today say they will lose out on the general billing and that loss will be bigger than the emergency room savings. It makes me wonder about wall street pundits. I'll be so shocked if Citigroup is pumping hospitals on this SCOTUS news. I'll be SHOCKED!
    Jun 28, 2012. 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan: Another Reason CDS Should Be Regulated As Insurance [View article]
    Excellent piece. I agree most of all that synthetic securities should be banned. Synthetics are sold as being sound on the basis of statistics. The sample size of the tranches is never large enough though. And the temptation to manipulate the pool is too great.
    May 21, 2012. 11:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hitting The Eephus Pitch [View instapost]
    Ha! I remember watching a half hour show about the eephus pitch about 30 years ago. It was chock full of black and white "highlights" of batters either missing so bad it was embarrassing or hitting the ball with bad mechanics that caused it to take weird flight.

    I've been thinking about things in a similar way but Somebody in or connected to Europe has to take a big fall first. When the market knows who the victim is then recovery (in the markets) will kick in.
    May 18, 2012. 11:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Observations As The Week Winds Down [View article]
    I like your thesis and I mostly agree with it. But (call me captain obvious) someone has got to take big big losses. Sentiment will get real again when that lucky group of losers is known rather than unknown.
    May 18, 2012. 12:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Dendreon (DNDN): Q1 EPS beats on an adjusted basis but misses on a net basis due to one-time severance expenses. Net product revenue for the quarter was $82M, boosted by higher sales of Provenge, compared to $27M for the same prior year period. Shares -8.4% AH.  [View news story]
    Hmmm....the growth curve on the revenues is not even close to what was hoped for last year. I'm out (in November and I'm still bruised) so I suppose I should stfu. However, revenues of 82 million per quarter will not sell this stock ever. That doesn't even count as "gradual growth" if you ask me. This company must achieve the 150 million per quarter before they will impress anyone. One more quarter under 100 million and the new CEO will start getting slagged too. Oh well.....
    May 7, 2012. 11:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece's Future Remains Within EMU [View article]
    Fascinating events in Euroland. I don't see a breakup or an exit either. Someone has to get a BIG haircut though. Austerity plans are a comedy routine to distract the creditors while the powers that be decide which of them gets that haircut and when.
    May 7, 2012. 10:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment