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  • Best Recession Forecaster: Robert F. Dieli [View article]
    Excellent article.

    I like the idea of modeling for the peak or the valley. I like the idea of being in a good place and seeing it's end approaching. I like the idea of being in a bad place and seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. That kind of thinking takes some of the emotion out of the process of forecasting. The peaks and the valleys of business cycle go on and on and on.
    Jan 13, 2012. 10:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jeff Miller Positions For 2012: Biggest Mistake Investors Can Make Right Now Is Underweighting Stocks [View article]
    Thank you SA for this great interview series! I have really enjoyed hearing from the interviewees in this format. David Merkel's contributions were great and so is this one from Jeff Miller.

    My favorite answer in this interview..."While I study the European situation carefully, I am not considering specific stocks there. There are many US companies that are undervalued because of Europe. I can get plenty of octane with much less risk buying JPM and CAT."

    A crash in EU would be a bad thing but if the slow organized grind continues to an eventual solution then it presents all sorts of opportunities with market perception not matching reality and folks with the means to identify the values will make a bundle.
    Jan 10, 2012. 09:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corning: A Look At Segment Growth And Profitability [View article]
    Great article.

    I've been wondering at Corning's share price too. The company cited as the reason to sell ZAGG by anybody and everybody and it's own pps treads water because the big screen tv market went soft for Christmas. That's Mr. Market.
    Jan 5, 2012. 06:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget McDonald's, Buy Wendy's Instead [View article]

    As the author points out, one important cause of that slide is that the 5 dollar value meal menu item became very important to the consumers and Arby's did not have all.

    I'm not as bullish as the author but selling Arby's (back in June) and changing leadership may (I say maybe) show up in the earnings releases this year.
    Jan 4, 2012. 08:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lululemon Is A Sell And The Insiders Know It [View article]
    You may be right about LULU (I have no position).

    When you wrote "if the valuation of the company grew at the 28% growth rate that it is predicted to have", I asked myself 'expected by who?'. Who has the 28% company valuations growth expectations?

    When you wrote "Starting right off the bat" my head hurt. That's the kind of typo that makes people wonder if English is your second or third language. It's better just to write "to begin" than to mash and smash a sport's analogy.
    Jan 4, 2012. 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Copper Producers Could Still Have Long Way To Fall [View article]
    Great article.

    I was surprised that Copper was able to achieve and surpass 2008 prices. Then we found out that Chinese were buying copper as collateral for financing (can you say market distortion?). I don't think copper prices are going to revert to the long term mean, though, but I'm only guessing (hoping?) that. It seems to me that infrastructure that uses copper exploded the past ten years and we need to use more copper now.

    Time will tell though.
    Dec 29, 2011. 09:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Stocks Under Attack By Short-Sellers And Management Alike [View article]
    CSKI ...the cfo resigned today.

    It has been a fascinating (but bearish) trend with China reverse mergers this year. But unless you can travel to company HQ and tour the facilities it's probably a good idea to stay out until the dust settles.
    Dec 28, 2011. 10:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hempton takes a victory lap for his Sears (SHLD) short, calling the thought of owning the lame retailer as a property play, "a demonstration of the arrogance and breathtaking naivete of much that passes on Wall Street." The company has 300K employees - the idea of a few hedgies liquidating something of that size without destroying all value "was comical." Shares off another 4% premarket.  [View news story]
    That is one excellent article by Mr. Hempton.
    Dec 28, 2011. 10:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Speculative Investors Helped Inflate The Housing Bubble [View article]
    I like your article.

    I wonder what can be done about it though. High taxes on the second home, which of course is just a vacation property for lots of snowbirds who would be adversely affected? Ok then, high taxes on the third home, which flippers (the big ones) would argue is direct discrimination against their business model? Hmmm......

    I'm not trying to be fatalistic but mania's are hard to stop. Though, it would have been nice for someone to have done something, instead of the absolute nothingburger that they did instead.
    Dec 13, 2011. 08:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If you watch the renminbi, you can easily see that the wheels are coming off the bus in China, says Simon Black. It's traded down to the lower limit of its strictly-controlled trading band for the past seven trading sessions in a row as investors flee. After decades of placating the masses with state sponsored hyper-growth, official GDP numbers are now slowing, real estate prices are falling, and inflation is quickening - meaning the day of reckoning is drawing ever closer.  [View news story]
    Agreed Tack.

    Peter Lynch identified the phenomenon as "Weekend Worrying". back in the 1980s.

    Real investors do real analysis on their weekend time, they do not wallow in the crisis de'joure.
    Dec 10, 2011. 01:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Rest Of The Week Ahead: Eurozone Soap Opera, Summit Edition [View article]
    I like the "Hill Street Blues" comparison most. There will be big, noisy failures followed by small but significant victories with lots gray ambiguity in between. Guaranteed to reward value investors and grind the weak and/or impulsive traders to dust.
    Dec 7, 2011. 10:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RIM: A Takeover Target? [View article]
    Count me a shocked by RIM in the last 12 months. The best short argument 12 months ago would have been "blackberry won't stand against google/apple/windows smartphone". I could imagine it 12 months ago but I could not believe it. I have vivid memories of users in the early and mid 2000s, fundamentally addicted to those RIM devices (hence the term Crackberry). I can believe it now as smartphones get better, cheaper, faster, and just as addicting.

    Alas, it's too late to short (easy short money is gone) and the most sensible buyout candidates have a nasty habit of not getting bought out.

    I agree with your conclusions.
    Dec 7, 2011. 10:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 High Risk/Reward Biotechs For 2012 [View article]
    CTIC: Three (!) reverse splits in the last five years. I like to take a risk now and then but that's just crazy. Add the unfortunate fact that the stock was above 50 before the reverse splits means that there is no adjective for bad that fully expresses the level of technical brokeness of the stock. It's just a daytrader plaything.
    Dec 5, 2011. 04:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Stocks With Notable Options Volume [View article]
    I like your write up. All these large caps are probably reasonably safe bets (even BAC).

    Call activity can also mean that short positions are so large that they are buying lots of calls to cover their butts. So there are times when call volume indicates giant negative bets have been placed...and people that place those usually have a good thesis. I'm just saying.
    Dec 4, 2011. 08:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing The Risk-On And Risk-Off Trades Through 2 New E-TRACS ETNs [View article]
    It really does look like an April Fool's joke.

    I saw Gartner doing interviews and he kept a straight face though so.....
    Dec 1, 2011. 11:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment