Green Mountain's (GMCR) growth story is dead, says CNBC's Herb Greenberg. The company's CEO all but said so in its conference call, saying “After several quarters of robust adoption, we now expect a more moderated growth trajectory going forward for both Keurig brewer and K-Cup pack sales.” "Moderated growth trajectory going forward?" Those are definitely not words you want to hear from the CEO of a high-flying growth company. Shares -40.6% AH. [View news story]
Certain kinds of short trades do not have to be reported. So if he says he's short, then he is indeed short.
Case-Shiller And The Continuing Slow Bleed [View instapost]
I wish you were wrong about the banks slow dripping there giant pile of already foreclosed, in process foreclosures, and outright dragging their feet as long as humanly possible foreclosures. However, on my own street, there are more foreclosed houses for sale this year than last year. On realtor.com (which is a shoddy vehicle) there are more foreclosed properties for sale right now in my zip code than there were this time last year. Flippers seem to be picking up a goodly number of them. However, their appearance in time for spring leads me to doubt the market since my neighborhood is a starter home neighborhood (home prices 70k to 150k). My neighborhood should have been all clear by now.
Case Schiller lags 3 months. Our unusually warm winter months are next up....there better be a bump!
Global spare oil production capacity is running "ridiculously thin" at less than 2% of demand, potentially offsetting the impact on overheating oil prices of any further increases in supplies, says Barclays head of commodities research Paul Horsnell. Any further announcements of increased Saudi supply are unlikely to have much of an impact on oil prices from here on, he adds. [View news story]
I have to agree with you Moon. Yesterday Barclays and Credit Suisse declared they don't trust the gov't demand numbers (that show lower demand YOY ). It looks looks like they are in damage control mode.
That last sentence is a good one. Apple's cash pile is bigger than a LOT of mutual funds and hedge funds. It's not often you see significant additions to the financial reports from "investment returns on cash".
Yahoo Should Have Listened To Steve Jobs [View article]
Great article.
Yahoo is one of the founding fathers of the internet age. They appeared only 3 years after the world wide web appeared. The last few years at yahoo really have been a circus. It would have been wrong somehow to for yahoo to become part of Microsoft but at the time they rebuffed MS I said to myself "That's just great....now what are you gonna do?"
I enjoy reading these write ups. Thanks. I appreciate that you cover the sell side (volatility explosion/implosion section) as well as the the buy side for options.
Lions, Vampires And Werewolves: Time To Buy Lions Gate Entertainment Stock [View article]
In my opinion the quality of the analysis isn't better or worse when the author is invested or not. Some authors just analyze what they're interested in without investing in it. Sometimes the analysis is good sometimes not good. This article, which is only speculating on potential revenues, is adequate.
Having said that though, I'm glad the disclosure statement is there.
Best Recession Forecaster: Robert F. Dieli [View article]
Excellent article.
I like the idea of modeling for the peak or the valley. I like the idea of being in a good place and seeing it's end approaching. I like the idea of being in a bad place and seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. That kind of thinking takes some of the emotion out of the process of forecasting. The peaks and the valleys of business cycle go on and on and on.
Jeff Miller Positions For 2012: Biggest Mistake Investors Can Make Right Now Is Underweighting Stocks [View article]
Thank you SA for this great interview series! I have really enjoyed hearing from the interviewees in this format. David Merkel's contributions were great and so is this one from Jeff Miller.
My favorite answer in this interview..."While I study the European situation carefully, I am not considering specific stocks there. There are many US companies that are undervalued because of Europe. I can get plenty of octane with much less risk buying JPM and CAT."
A crash in EU would be a bad thing but if the slow organized grind continues to an eventual solution then it presents all sorts of opportunities with market perception not matching reality and folks with the means to identify the values will make a bundle.
Corning: A Look At Segment Growth And Profitability [View article]
Great article.
I've been wondering at Corning's share price too. The company cited as the reason to sell ZAGG by anybody and everybody and it's own pps treads water because the big screen tv market went soft for Christmas. That's Mr. Market.
As the author points out, one important cause of that slide is that the 5 dollar value meal menu item became very important to the consumers and Arby's did not have one...at all.
I'm not as bullish as the author but selling Arby's (back in June) and changing leadership may (I say maybe) show up in the earnings releases this year.
Lululemon Is A Sell And The Insiders Know It [View article]
You may be right about LULU (I have no position).
When you wrote "if the valuation of the company grew at the 28% growth rate that it is predicted to have", I asked myself 'expected by who?'. Who has the 28% company valuations growth expectations?
When you wrote "Starting right off the bat" my head hurt. That's the kind of typo that makes people wonder if English is your second or third language. It's better just to write "to begin" than to mash and smash a sport's analogy.
Copper Producers Could Still Have Long Way To Fall [View article]
Great article.
I was surprised that Copper was able to achieve and surpass 2008 prices. Then we found out that Chinese were buying copper as collateral for financing (can you say market distortion?). I don't think copper prices are going to revert to the long term mean, though, but I'm only guessing (hoping?) that. It seems to me that infrastructure that uses copper exploded the past ten years and we need to use more copper now.
Green Mountain's (GMCR) growth story is dead, says CNBC's Herb Greenberg. The company's CEO all but said so in its conference call, saying “After several quarters of robust adoption, we now expect a more moderated growth trajectory going forward for both Keurig brewer and K-Cup pack sales.” "Moderated growth trajectory going forward?" Those are definitely not words you want to hear from the CEO of a high-flying growth company. Shares -40.6% AH. [View news story]
Case-Shiller And The Continuing Slow Bleed [View instapost]
Case Schiller lags 3 months. Our unusually warm winter months are next up....there better be a bump!
Global spare oil production capacity is running "ridiculously thin" at less than 2% of demand, potentially offsetting the impact on overheating oil prices of any further increases in supplies, says Barclays head of commodities research Paul Horsnell. Any further announcements of increased Saudi supply are unlikely to have much of an impact on oil prices from here on, he adds. [View news story]
On Fourth-Quarter 13Fs [View article]
Europe: The Problem With Success [View article]
Yahoo Should Have Listened To Steve Jobs [View article]
Yahoo is one of the founding fathers of the internet age. They appeared only 3 years after the world wide web appeared. The last few years at yahoo really have been a circus. It would have been wrong somehow to for yahoo to become part of Microsoft but at the time they rebuffed MS I said to myself "That's just great....now what are you gonna do?"
VIX - Options Volatility Sonar: Thursday Recap [View article]
Free Money Thursday: Quoth Bernanke, 'Forever More' [View article]
Best headline of the day.
Lions, Vampires And Werewolves: Time To Buy Lions Gate Entertainment Stock [View article]
Having said that though, I'm glad the disclosure statement is there.
Best Recession Forecaster: Robert F. Dieli [View article]
I like the idea of modeling for the peak or the valley. I like the idea of being in a good place and seeing it's end approaching. I like the idea of being in a bad place and seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. That kind of thinking takes some of the emotion out of the process of forecasting. The peaks and the valleys of business cycle go on and on and on.
Jeff Miller Positions For 2012: Biggest Mistake Investors Can Make Right Now Is Underweighting Stocks [View article]
My favorite answer in this interview..."While I study the European situation carefully, I am not considering specific stocks there. There are many US companies that are undervalued because of Europe. I can get plenty of octane with much less risk buying JPM and CAT."
A crash in EU would be a bad thing but if the slow organized grind continues to an eventual solution then it presents all sorts of opportunities with market perception not matching reality and folks with the means to identify the values will make a bundle.
Corning: A Look At Segment Growth And Profitability [View article]
I've been wondering at Corning's share price too. The company cited as the reason to sell ZAGG by anybody and everybody and it's own pps treads water because the big screen tv market went soft for Christmas. That's Mr. Market.
Forget McDonald's, Buy Wendy's Instead [View article]
As the author points out, one important cause of that slide is that the 5 dollar value meal menu item became very important to the consumers and Arby's did not have one...at all.
I'm not as bullish as the author but selling Arby's (back in June) and changing leadership may (I say maybe) show up in the earnings releases this year.
Lululemon Is A Sell And The Insiders Know It [View article]
When you wrote "if the valuation of the company grew at the 28% growth rate that it is predicted to have", I asked myself 'expected by who?'. Who has the 28% company valuations growth expectations?
When you wrote "Starting right off the bat" my head hurt. That's the kind of typo that makes people wonder if English is your second or third language. It's better just to write "to begin" than to mash and smash a sport's analogy.
Copper Producers Could Still Have Long Way To Fall [View article]
I was surprised that Copper was able to achieve and surpass 2008 prices. Then we found out that Chinese were buying copper as collateral for financing (can you say market distortion?). I don't think copper prices are going to revert to the long term mean, though, but I'm only guessing (hoping?) that. It seems to me that infrastructure that uses copper exploded the past ten years and we need to use more copper now.
Time will tell though.