Perhaps more than any other time in the last six decades, the fate of markets is inextricably intertwined with the ebb and flow of geopolitics. From the ECB's attempts to use the central bank's balance sheet to influence political outcomes across the eurozone to Saudi Arabia's efforts to transform the kingdom's influence over crude prices into an instrument of foreign policy, it's become increasingly clear that one simply cannot fully comprehend market movements without a thorough understanding of concurrent political outcomes. Drawing on extensive experience in both politics and finance, Heisenberg will help demystify a world in which investors can no longer hope to conceptualize markets as existing in anything that even approximates a vacuum. "I am the one who knocks."
I run a model fund at Ken Kam's Marketocracy, where they do capital management using the best member mutual fund track records with extensive tabulations of alpha, beta, R-squared, and many other fund management evaluations. Marketocracy Capital Management offers SMA (Separately Managed Accounts) through FOLIOfn Institutional ($100,000 minimum accounts) set up to track the top 15 or so long-term track records (many 12 years plus) of the 30000 or so active members that run models at their site. My fund is one of those top models available for SMAs. My SMA investment fund now has a first year performance with double digit alpha. You can see the fund's performance chart at marketocracy.com (the Turtle Fund - symbol BPMF) and there is one in my profile over at TalkMarkets.
My fund methodology is high diversification, usually running around 40-60 stocks from many different sectors. I rarely weight any position much over 5%. I began at Marketocracy developing an analysis method I've labeled The Fractal Base Flow Model. I've been experimenting with variations of my basic methodology with 4 other funds and a 5th where I try new things. With my first and main model fund BPMF (Bruce Pile's Mutual Fund) I did my basic method for the first 7 years or so with an alpha over 30, then strayed a little into other analysis methods that did not work as well. For the SMA, I am using the methods proven to work well.
Marketocracy is a new way of investing that solves a lot of the problems in the industry today. When investors nowadays survey their options, they are perplexed by the mish mash of risk and fees. In mutual funds, you have regulated safety where managers must diversify with less than 10% of your money in any one name in the top of your weightings scheme, making for at least around 20 stocks at any one time. The SEC also prohibits the risk of leverage and investing in dangerous derivatives, etc. But this safety is typically viewed as a tradeoff with performance vs hedge funds, where all the dangerous stuff is allowed. But the sad result of all this danger is that most hedge funds fail. The average life of a hedge fund that makes it past the first year is just 5 years. More than two thirds of all hedge funds that ever existed are now dead. There is the fund of funds option, but the high turnover means that even they must select an all new portfolio of funds about every 5 years. This makes selecting proven long-term performers virtually impossible. A fund of hedge funds will typically not only charge the high hedge fund fees of 1%-4% management fee plus 15%-25% of your returns, but will also charge fees for running the fund of funds. They pile complication upon complication and charge you for it. "Oh, and the hedge fund industry as a whole hasn’t produced alpha/added value to simple portfolios for years, since its assets under management ballooned." [FTalphaville] With typical leverage, that has grown over 15 years from around 20% to over 40% now, you get 40%more risk than mutual fund rules with no significant added performance, just more costs. And because that added leverage risk is so often concentrated in the same areas by all the large funds, inducing systemic risk, when those bets go wrong they can go very wrong. With all the above, an investor must live with the risk of having just one fund manager, or picker of rotating funds in a fund of funds. Imagine a place where you could go to sign up for an account where you could review track records and styles and risk levels of not just one guy, but up to 15 or so, and check on your account signup form how you want to spread your money among these guys. And imagine that all these managers have had to compile top ranked hedge fund performance levels for up to 15 years under the safety level of SEC rules for mutual funds. And imagine you could get all this at roughly cost of a mutual fund. It would be like opening an account and checking the names of Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, and all your favorite hedge fund managers to gang tackle your investment objectives. And as in any team sport, if one guy hits a cold streak, the others will carry him. No dependence on one manager. Well there is such a place - Marketocracy Capital Management. Here, thousands of people from all walks of life, from retired and active fund managers to ordinary individual investors, compete online with virtual funds. If your track record qualifies, you can open a GIPS account for real money tracking of your model fund and have client accounts track your model. My fund is one of those, ticker BPMF. FOLIOfn Institutional can open a client SMA where you can pick and choose from the best of the best long-term performers. To look into this: Phone: 1-877-462-4180 email: firstname.lastname@example.org web: marketocracy.com
I am a former investment advisor and owner of several businesses, and consequently everything related to business - including investing, macro-economics, and emerging products and services come under my research and interests radar.
The most interesting and important to me are the entertainment industry, commodities, BRICs, and the impact of loose money policies on businesses and investors.
These days I invest only for myself, while continuing to write on a variety of financial and economic topics.
Daniel is currently the manager of Avaring Capital Advisors, LLC, a registered investment advisor that oversees one hedge fund. His primary focus is on finding businesses that are trading at a significant discount to their intrinsic value by employing a combination of Benjamin Graham's investment philosophy and a contrarian approach to the market and the securities therein.
Jennifer's areas of expertise include energy trends —their economic and geopolitical implications—and resource sustainability issues. Other interests include shale oil and natural gas, climate change, green and efficient infrastructure, China, India, and the energy-water nexus.
Her work has been published in various academic, policy and business publications such as Far Eastern Economic Review, Economist Intelligence Unit’s Executive Briefing, Journal of Structured Finance, Lloyd's List, D CEO, Energy Trends Insider, Financial Sense, and many others. She has been interviewed for numerous radio broadcasts and news stories, and presented her work at various conferences. From Dec 2010 to April 2013, she was the CEO/President of a global affairs organization focused on cutting edge trends. She organized and moderated panels on global gas, energy security, energy infrastructure finance, and urban development.
She has a master's degree from London School of Economics, and bachelor's in finance/marketing. She is principal of Concept Elemental, a strategic communications consultancy focusing on knowledge work, and includes over fifteen years of financial services industry work. She works with a top University, "translating" cutting edge research as well.
Physical and financial commodity trader and Portfolio manager specializing in natural gas and petroleum commodities with 29 years of extensive and varied experience under a broad range of market conditions.
A proven track record of success employing a very methodical and disciplined trading style.
Skilled in both granular supply/demand analysis as well as the art of technical analysis.
Founding member of proprietary energy derivatives trading desk at Morgan Stanley, head energy trader at Chase Manhattan Bank, natural gas portfolio manager at Perennial Capital. Founding partner 4 Corners Global Trading, LLC
Specialties: Natural gas trading, Petroleum trading, derivatives, risk management, commodity futures, options expert, Technical analysis, fundamental analysis
Chad Gassaway is an active investor focused on technical and quantitative analysis. His investment strategy is based on managing investment risk while maximizing potential profits.
Chad graduated with a Bachelors degree from the University of Kentucky. Chad started his career in finance as a Financial Advisor at Edward Jones Investments. Chad then worked as a Financial Advisor for MetLife Securities prior to acting as the Vice President of Investments at JP Morgan-Chase in Lexington, Kentucky. Currently, he serves as a portfolio manager at Grace Trading.
Chad holds the designation of a Chartered Market Technician and is a member of the Market Technicians Association. His work has been featured in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg Brief Technical Newsletter, Yahoo Finance, Seeking Alpha, and Investing.com.
Ron Patterson is a retired Computer Engineer. He spent five years in Saudi Arabia working for Saudi ARAMCO. He has followed the peak oil story since 2000. Ron started blogging on peak oil in 2013. His web site, PeakOilBarrel.com is one of the most followed blogs on the subject.
Ron's interest are geology, biology, paleontology, and ecology. His hobbies are blogging and kayak sailing.
AtonRa Partners is an independent equity research and asset management company. Our approach is based on a deep knowledge and understanding of market dynamics and focuses on adding value to clients' portfolios via thoroughly checked proprietary information and data sources. We cherish a "speak our mind" approach in our reports (accessible at http://www.atonra.ch). We are also part of Euro IRP ("European Independent Research Providers", see http://www.euroirp.com/members/).
"One of the best ways to do well in this business is to go to areas that have been unexploited by research capability and work them for all you can." -Julian Robertson Managing partner of the Schildpad & De Haas partnerships. Seeking Alpha PRO contributor since the library's inception in 2013. A special selection of investment ideas is available through the Exclusive Research service.
James A. Kostohryz has accumulated over twenty years of experience investing and trading virtually every asset class across the globe.
Kostohryz started his investment career as an analyst at one of the US's largest asset management firms covering sectors as diverse as emerging markets, banking, energy, construction, real estate, metals and mining. Later, Kostohryz became Chief Global Strategist and Head of International Investments for a major investment bank. Kostohryz currently manages his own investment firm, specializing in proprietary trading and institutional portfolio management advisory.
Born in Mexico, Kostohryz grew up between south Texas and Colombia, has lived and worked in nine different countries, and has traveled extensively in more than 50 others. Kostohryz actively pursues various intellectual interests and is currently writing a book about the impact of culture on economic development. He is a former NCAA and world-class decathlete and has stayed active in a variety of sports.
Kostohryz graduated with honors from both Stanford University and Harvard Law School.
You can receive custom delivery of all of Mr. Kostohryz's published work on Seeking Alpha, The Street, and other media, as well as exclusive material, by following the link below. It is absolutely free:
You may connect with Mr. Kostohryz via the following social networks:
When connecting, be sure to identify yourself as a Seeking Alpha reader.
Awarded a 2015 & 2016 "Top 50 Financial Blogger" by TipRanks.com
- Ranked #44 out of 4,408 bloggers (#106 out of 8,174 overall experts) as of 8/18/15
- Ranked #37 out of 5,383 bloggers (#107 out of 9,507 overall experts) as of 8/18/16
- Follow my ongoing coverage on TerraVia (TVIA): http://seekingalpha.com/articles?filters=tvia,kevin-quon
I have over five years of experience in covering financial markets. I am interested in commodities, emerging markets, media & entertainment and technology.
As an investor, I always employ the top-down approach. My objective is to share my insights and investing ideas and also learn from other accomplished investors here.
I spend most of my time reading through annual reports looking for a small-cap stock to feature in my monthly edition of "The Conservative Investor Digest." That is where you can find my best work, and that is where I focus my research. You can become a subscriber here: https://gumroad.com/l/HmqJx
Richard Zeits is an Oil & Gas industry analyst and consultant. His background includes fourteen years as Energy industry-focused investment banker, portfolio manager and senior investment analyst with bulge bracket firms in New York. Zeits Energy Analytics use elaborate proprietary analytics and data bases to provide in-depth industry research, market intelligence, and forecasting.
Blending a fresh perspective, twenty-five years of experience working with world-class brands including Sony and Frito-Lay, and a talent for inspiring audiences, Denise Lee Yohn is a popular speaker and leading authority on building and positioning exceptional brands.
Denise initially cultivated her brand-building approaches through several high-level positions in advertising and client-side marketing. She served as lead strategist at advertising agencies for Burger King and Land Rover and as the marketing leader and analyst for Jack in the Box restaurants and Spiegel catalogs. Denise went on to head Sony Electronic Inc.’s first ever brand office, where she was the vice president/general manager of brand and strategy and garnered major corporate awards.
An influential writer, Denise enjoys challenging readers to think differently about brand-building. She regularly contributes to Harvard Business Review and Forbes and is the writer of the popular monthly column Brand New Perspectives to QSR Magazine.
In 2008 she launched her blog, brand as business bites™, which the Marketing Executives Networking Group (MENG) named as one of the top 20 marketing blogs. Denise also penned the best-selling book What Great Brands Do: The Seven Brand-Building Principles that Separate the Best from the Rest (Jossey-Bass).
With her expertise and personal approach, Denise delivers an array of inspirational workshops, presentations, and keynote addresses to business leaders in all industries. When she’s not writing or speaking, she serves as the brand director for TEDx San Diego and sits on the board of directors for a branch of the YMCA.
Juan Carlos Zuleta is an economist. He holds a master's degree in Agricultural and Applied Economics from the University of Minnesota and did Ph.D. studies in Economics at the New School for Social Research. Since 1992 he has published a number of articles on the economics of lithium. Due to his contributions to EV World.Com, Industrial Minerals and Seeking Alpha.Com during the period 2008-2009, Juan Carlos was invited to participate as a speaker at both the inaugural Lithium Supply & Markets Conference (LS&M) held in January 2009 in Santiago, Chile as well as the second LS&M Conference held in January 2010 in Las Vegas, USA.
Hale Stewart spent 5 years as a bond broker in the late 1990s before returning to law school in the early 2000s. He is currently a tax lawyer in Houston, Texas. He has an LLM from the Thomas Jefferson School of Law in domestic and international taxation where he graduated Magna Cum Laude and is also a Chartered Asset Manager, Chartered Wealth Manager and Chartered Trust and Estate Planner from the American Academy of Financial Management. He is the author of the book US Captive Insurance Law. You can read him daily at the XE.com currency blog (http://community.xe.com/blog/xe-market-analysis).
I'm an investor and a Chartered Business Valuator (CBV). I have been investing since I was a teenager. I love my work. I manage a private investment company and I specialize in business valuation.
I'm a huge skeptic by nature. If you had to put me in an investment category, I would fall under "contrarian/value" investor. It's not an investment style that I picked but one that reflects my personality.
Regarding my articles, I think to present my ideas present in a neutral light, without any hype or promotion, which is a rare thing these days.
Please note that any articles or comments on Seeking Alpha are not linked to my work, and the opinions or content mentioned are mine personally.
We have over 60 years of investment analysis experience. We have published investment research from the perspective of the buy side and the sell side. Our work has been used by institutions managing over $1 trillion in aggregate. We have published reports from both the long and short perspective and have worked with the largest short selling mutual fund in the world. We are long term value investors. It is our belief that, contrary to popular opinion, most individual investors and patient professional investors have the best opportunity since the beginning of our investment career to beat institutional and mutual fund managers in terms of risk adjusted performance. The "Information Arbitrage" advantage institutional investors have had is mostly eliminated, while the individual investor still can maintain an edge with "Time Arbitrage". Our goal is to provide institutional quality buy side articles that educate and stimulate investors in the hope of improving their returns. We also are willing to mentor young analysis who wish to improve their analytical skills.
At Valuentum, we think the best opportunities arise from a complete understanding of all investing disciplines in order to identify the most attractive stocks at any given time. Valuentum therefore analyzes each stock across a wide spectrum of philosophies, from deep value through momentum investing. We think companies that are attractive from a number of investment perspectives--whether it be growth, value, momentum, etc.--have the greatest probability of capital appreciation and relative outperformance. The more investors that are interested in the stock for reasons based on their respective investment mandates, the more likely it will move higher.
Brian Nelson is the President of Equity Research at Valuentum Securities, an investment research firm serving individual and institutional investors, as well as financial advisors. Before founding Valuentum, Mr. Nelson worked as a director at Morningstar, where he was responsible for training and methodology development within the firm's equity and credit research department. Prior to that position, he served as a senior industrials securities analyst, covering aerospace, airlines, construction and environmental services companies. Before joining Morningstar in February 2006, Mr. Nelson worked for a small capitalization fund covering a variety of sectors for an aggressive growth investment management firm in Chicago. He holds a Bachelor's degree in finance and a minor in mathematics, magna cum laude, from Benedictine University. Mr. Nelson has an MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation.
Get to Know Brian:
Brian led the charge in developing Morningstar's issuer credit ratings, developing and rolling-out one of the firm's proprietary credit metrics, the Cash Flow Cushion. http://select.morningstar.com/welcome/credit/pdfs/Morningstar_CashFlowCushion.pdf
Brian is frequently quoted in the media and has been a frequent guest on Nightly Business Report, Bloomberg TV, and the Money Show.
Mr. Nelson is very experienced in valuing equities, developing Morningstar's discounted cash-flow model used to derive the fair value estimates for the company's entire equity coverage universe.
Brian worked on a small cap fund and a micro cap fund that were ranked within the top 10th percentile and top 1st percentile within the Small Cap Lipper Growth Universe, respectively, in 2005.
Mr. Nelson is also a contributor to Seeking Alpha and an opinion leader in the Industrial Goods space.
You can reach Brian at email@example.com.
Please read our Disclaimer that applies to all articles published on Seeking Alpha: http://www.valuentum.com/categories/20110613
Follow us on Twitter: @Valuentum
Ben Strubel is the President and Portfolio Manager of Strubel Investment Management, LLC ("SIM") a registered investment advisor. Strubel Investment Management provides separate account management services for clients and also publishes The Value Investor's Edge Newsletter. Ben Strubel is a Graduate of Drexel University with a Master of Business Administration in Investment Management. After graduation Ben founded SIM. Prior to founding SIM Ben worked for several years in the Information Technology field at a Fortune 1000 company. Ben has a unique three pronged approach to investing. First, seek to lower costs as much as possible by avoiding high fee mutual funds and tax inefficient strategies. Second, diversify client funds across multiple uncorrelated asset classes. Third, maintain a value investing focus. Ben selects individual securities for the equity portion of client portfolios and focuses on buying companies with excellent fundamentals that have fallen out of favor with the market.
Formerly Chief Market Strategist at Capital Ladders Advisory Group LLC. After the sale of certain of CLAG's retail and institutional assets in October 2015, I have commenced my latest venture in the CPG industry which is centered on the development and licensing of consumer and commercial technology. https://www.linkedin.com/profile/view?id=AAIAAA3lJ9IBNi1rhhFzRWElkJl4MpyNuIiHglQ&trk=nav_responsive_tab_profile
CooLinX Integrated Technologies develops technologies for the beverage and CPG industry. We are presently effecting licensing agreements with multi-national brands and co-developing products aimed for mass market consumption.
Brad Thomas is a research analyst and he currently writes weekly for Forbes and Seeking Alpha where he maintains research on many publicly-listed REITs. In addition, Thomas is the Senior Analyst at iREIT Forbes and Editor of the Forbes Real Estate Investor, a monthly subscription-based newsletter.
Thomas has also been featured in Forbes Magazine, Kiplinger’s, US News & World Report, Money, NPR, Institutional Investor, GlobeStreet, and Fox Business. He was the #1 contributing analyst on Seeking Alpha in 2014 (as ranked by TipRanks) and he is currently writing a book on the legendary investor Donald Trump.
Thomas has co-authored a book (The Intelligent REIT Investor) that is available on Amazon.
Thomas received a Bachelor of Science degree in Business/Economics from Presbyterian College where he played basketball. He resides in South Carolina with his wife and kids.
Engineer by trade and passion. Have worked internationally for over three decades, running my own business. I hold a PhD in engineering, but honestly believe that the school of hard knocks has taught me lessons that are more applicable to my writing here on Seeking Alpha.
My investing interests mostly concern the resource sector, with a focus on precious metals, base metals and energy stocks of all sizes. My research explicitly includes small- and micro-cap juniors, and I try to manage the associated risks in a methodical manner.
Netwall Investments, LLC (www.netwall.com) is a Chicago based money management firm. Our philosophy is derived from that of many legendary investors such as Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch & Martin Whitman; i.e. Invest in great businesses that you understand, that have an "economic moat" and which are run by great management teams; have some margin of safety and superior returns are guaranteed in the long run. These are the Ten rules that we religiously follow to manage other people's money:
1. I shall not lose money
2. I shall never forget rule #1
3. I shall only invest in businesses whose people I respect and admire
4. I shall only invest in businesses with some definite form of competitive advantage
5. I shall only invest when odds of making money are in my favor
6. I shall only commit funds when an investment is available at a discount to its true intrinsic value
7. I shall always run a portfolio with an in-depth understanding of each investment, thus avoiding mindless diversification
8. I shall always make rational decisions and never be influenced by the behavior of markets. I shall adhere to mantra, “Ignore the Crowd”
9. I shall tend to be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful (backed by meticulous research and fact finding)
10. I shall never forget that I am a custodian of other people’s hard earned money and I promise to manage it with the same zeal as if it were my own