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  • Natural Gas: Another Surprise [View article]
    Playing natural gas is not for someone who believes they need to use stops for 'protection'. The big boys routinely run the stops to an extreme before reversing NG for nice profits. That happens almost daily and even twice a day on occasion. Thursday is the day that the weekly report is released when stops are most likely to be taken out as NG makes a big move in one direction and then reverses.
    Feb 23, 2015. 03:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Another Surprise [View article]
    predictorman: you are selling and I just bought at 2.88. I hope to see 2.85 and I will buy more.
    Feb 23, 2015. 03:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Another Surprise [View article]
    A pullback to the $2.80-$2.85 region would be a good time to buy for another pop. This is the best time of the year to be playing the long side. The cold weather hitting the east is expected to continue for at least a few more weeks.
    Feb 23, 2015. 11:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Sputtering Action [View article]
    Henri, I suspect that you are going to regret being short NG. This is the absolute worst time of the year to be short natural gas. Overnight trading could kill your position while you are sleeping. I am long at 2.68 .
    Feb 17, 2015. 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Sputtering Action [View article]
    GWL002: UGAZ is a triple leveraged play on natural gas futures, specifically, the front month. As the front month is sold and the next month purchased, there is a 'roll' cost involved that reflects the difference in pricing. The difference in pricing for the future months is known as contango.

    Unless NG is moving up strongly, UGAZ will decay in price due the contango issue. In short, UGAZ is not a good way to play NG except for the very short term.
    Feb 17, 2015. 01:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Short-Term Rally Is Setting Up In Gold [View article]
    Hey Ben, where did you get your crystal ball? I need a new one.
    Feb 17, 2015. 12:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Short-Term Rally Is Setting Up In Gold [View article]
    Actually, a lot is different this time. India is about to reduce it's import tax on gold.
    Feb 17, 2015. 12:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Worst Is Yet To Come For Natural Gas As Bear Market Persists [View article]
    Feb 13, 2015. 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Worst Is Yet To Come For Natural Gas As Bear Market Persists [View article]
    The next withdrawal, and a few more after that, are going to huge.
    Feb 12, 2015. 08:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Oil Rig Counts Matter? [View article]
    The major stock markets (US, Germany, Japan, UK, etc) are at or near all time highs, despite low GDP growth. China's market is ripping upwards since early last fall, confounding those that think the Chinese economy is tanking. Let's think about this for a second. Firstly, oil demand isn't actually dropping. In fact, it's still rising. So, realistically, it would take a deep world wide recession to knock crude down to $20. Furthermore, the strong action by the world's major markets would indicate that SOMEONE is expecting those economies to roar ahead at some point in the foreseeable future. That 'someone' is not likely to be the retail investor who, for the most part, is fearful that the markets are teetering on the brink of collapse.

    If a strong economic expansion does prove to be ultimate outcome and oil demand ramps up accordingly, the headline grabbing terms 'Oil Glut' will become 'Oil Shortage' in a very big hurry. That scenario has played out in the past and I suspect we will be reading the word 'shortage' in the not too distant future.
    Feb 11, 2015. 11:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Midwinter Natural Gas Update [View article]
    Nate, you may want to re-read your own article. No where do you "state" that you would be "hesitant in initiating a short position" now. What you do state is: "I continue to be short natural gas" and in another sentence "in the long term, I am still short natural gas to below $2.50" That's crystal clear. You are short, period.

    BTW, I said nothing about November, December or January. That's not a good time to be long NG. Stocks are usually plentiful and no one is too worried about running short due to a little cold weather. That sentiment changes as the winter progresses. Seasoned traders of Natural Gas futures know that the months of February, March and sometimes even early April, are the best times for a possible spike in prices, that is, if there is a prolonged cold stretch and stocks are dwindling quickly from an average or better yet, a below average storage situation.

    I only just started buying in at 2.68 a few days ago and I really like the long term forecast for the eastern half of the US. COLD!
    Feb 11, 2015. 10:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Midwinter Natural Gas Update [View article]
    It makes me gag when someone talks about shorting NG at this time of year. The months of Feb thru April are usually the strongest period of the year for NG, particularly for the front two months.

    Knowing that the next several weeks are predicted to be abnormally cold for the populous northeast, why on earth would the author think this is a good time to be short? The possible gain is miniscule compared to the risk of NG spiking to $5 or $6 which at this time of year, is very possible.

    I went long at 2.68 and will buy more on any dips.
    Feb 11, 2015. 04:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Historical Correlations Of Oil To Coal Suggest We Won't Be Seeing A Return To $100 Oil Anytime Soon [View article]
    Keith: Right now, U.S. pricing for coal and natural gas are very much a domestic issue of over supply coupled with declining domestic demand. Crude oil is a somewhat different situation.

    For the first time in decades, American oil production is influencing crude pricing on a world wide basis. America is importing far less crude and as a consequence, the rest of the world is over supplied, a situation that will probably prove to be temporary.

    Yes, the US is currently experiencing downward pricing pressure for all three energy commodities of oil, coal and natural gas. This temporary correlation is unlikely to prevail for very long, given that crude oil prices are dependent on worldwide, rather than domestic demand. Let's not forget that crude pricing is still very much determined by a cartel that when it's members are unified, can price crude at whatever they feel is warranted just by reducing output.
    Feb 10, 2015. 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Demand For Stocks Dried Up? Part Deux [View article]
    It isn't just the US stock market that stubbornly remains at a unwarranted levels, most European markets have soared despite the threat of a Greek default and exit from the EU.

    While shorting these markets may seem to be the smart thing to so, that hasn't worked out so well for those who choose to believe that sanity must eventually return to the markets. I have known for many years that irrational markets can continue for a very long time but I have never, in my nearly 40 years of trading, seen anything like what we are witnessing now.
    Feb 10, 2015. 11:32 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Have A Ways To Go Before Natural Gas Rebounds [View article]
    The bottom looks like it's in. It didn't stay below $2.60 for very long, at $2.68 as of this post. I see a rapid climb to $3.25 in the cards. The east coast is forecast for some cold weather for several weeks. UGAZ is my choice for quick profits.
    Feb 10, 2015. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment