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  • Nobel Prize Winner Shiller Is Damaging His Reputation With CAPE Ratio Talk [View article]
    Today's markets are not fueled by something as rational and fundamental as the CAPE ratio. Instead, we have a global collection of banks that determine what stock prices should be and who are actively interfering in the everyday trading of stocks. Corporations are encouraged to forego investment in the equipment in favor of buying back their own stock with dirt cheap credit. Neither they nor the banks need fundamentals to justify bidding up stock to nose bleed levels because that have a financial backer with an unlimited supply of money. That backer is a privately owned entity known as a 'Central Bank'.

    I have never seen a market move in such a methodical manner. Sell offs are incredibly brief and shallow. Ultimately, the market will crash but it is impossible to determine when. I strongly suspect that the players who are going to be the big losers when this fiasco unravels are those retail investors who have their money tied up in slow moving entities known as 'Pension Funds'.
    Aug 22 12:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And Deficits - The Connection Might Surprise You [View article]
    So, the consumers of India and China and the Middle East are watching the US deficit and are collectively adjusting their gold purchases accordingly? Not bloody likely.

    The author may have presented a good case for a link between the US dollar and deficits. Of course, Americans 'see' gold price in terms of their dollar and not in terms of actual demand for gold which, in my opinion, has very little to do with US budget deficits.
    Aug 22 12:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Numbers Are In, How To Read The WGC Report [View article]
    David, thanks for the briefing on the latest WGC report. The report provides clarity in that it doesn't deal with the price of gold in any particular currency. It only presents the facts regarding supply and demand.

    It should be no surprise that gold's price would appear to be a function of the old supply/demand equation. The combined demand for gold by the consumers of India and China versus the total available supply is all that really matters. US gold bar and coin demand is just fluff and of little consequence. Furthermore, do the consumers of India and China give a rat's ass about the Ukraine crisis or what Yellen has to say? Not likely.

    It is hilarious when SA contributors (and commentators) try so hard to make a case that some 'made in America' event will be the cause of a long term shift in the price of gold. Of course, a collapse of the dollar would cause Americans to believe that gold was 'strong' just like the Japanese did when the YEN collapsed. In fact, a weakening dollar would do little to change the supply/demand relationship.
    Aug 22 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Federal Reserve Will Never Be Able To Get Out Of QE [View article]
    convoluted: You have nailed it. The TV industry is only giving the average American viewer what they want. There is no necessity to think and it helps to pass the time while munching on garbage food. You are absolutely correct about the vast majority having no interest in the stock market. That would require some thinking and that is just way too hard for some "folk" (as Obama might put it).

    "Taking to the streets" as a protest against inflation and a rapidly declining living standard will be seen by some as an excuse to steal what food stamps can't buy.
    Aug 15 02:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Looming Black Swan [View article]
    When reviewing a a financial report, a professional doesn't spend any time looking at EPS. Cash flow and the balance sheet are far more telling of a Company's health than the massaged EPS number. Using debt to by back shares just to save a little bit on the dividend payout is not going to make the balance sheet look any more attractive and when interest rates rise, the additional debt is going to make the balance sheets look downright ugly.
    Aug 15 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Oil Market QE Premium Is Coming Out Of Price [View article]
    How, exactly, has the FED interfering in the oil market when they are buying bonds?
    Aug 14 02:06 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Buy Stocks? [View article]
    Let's look at the bigger picture. Many of Europe's stock markets have hit record highs this year with some, like the German DAX, showing a strong correlation to the S&P. (and without a central bank QE program). Please explain how that is possible in terms of the US 'presidential' cycles?
    Aug 13 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bottom Is In For Treasuries [View article]
    This author's crystal ball must be one of those high end models.
    Aug 10 11:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NatGas Selling Window Opens As Prices Rally After Inventory Deficit Widens [View article]
    Hmm... that chart is showing what looks like a perfect 'rounding' bottom.
    Aug 10 02:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The S&P 500 And The Russian Black Swan [View article]
    A Russian invasion of Ukraine could not really be classed as a "Black Swan" event. Too many people expect that very thing to happen. Now, if Ukraine were to come forth with some those nukes that are rumored to have gone 'missing' while Ukraine was disarming and mushroom clouds were to appear over Russian troops, then we would have a real Black Swan event that would send financial markets reeling.
    Aug 10 02:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Flagship Gold ETF's Holdings Set To Surge As Stock Traders Return [View article]
    How can one know for sure that GLD's sponsor is actually taking possession of gold on behalf of those who buy their ETF? Who is doing the regulating and have there been indepedent audits of assets performed?
    Aug 9 03:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The GLD Today: Looming Weekend Outweighs Interfax Report [View article]
    Mr. Kaminis, sorry about the misspell (I did get right the second time). Like you, I expect that gold will eventually head for much higher numbers and it is agreed that Putin (and many others) would like to see the US dollar lose it's status of being the world's currency for trade. However, we disagree as to what the catalyst will be that will send gold on a sustainable upward trajectory. The crisis in Ukraine is not going to do the job and even if Russia invades, the effect on gold will be temporary.

    A direct military conflict between Russia and the West would undoubtedly send gold up for a longer period but in order for gold to "go to the moon", a complete loss of confidence in the world's financial system is what it would take. That almost happened in 2008 and confidence will almost certainly be tested again in the future.
    Aug 9 02:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The GLD Today: Looming Weekend Outweighs Interfax Report [View article]
    In March, gold peaked out at $1392. In July, gold peaked out at $1345. Now we are at $1309. Despite the threats of Russia going to war with Ukraine, Iraq falling apart, the Israel-Hamas war, gold has really gone nowhere, despite Mr. Karminis' relentless attempts to 'talk ' gold upward.

    When gold resumes it's bull run, it will not be because of some regional war that has Mr Kaminis salivating, but because of rising demand for physical gold by the citizens (and central banks) of likes of India, China, Russia, etc.

    The central banks of the West have done much to erode the trust of the common man in paper currencies. The money printing exercises appear to be schemes not unlike that those of a counterfeiter. Some may wish to protect their wealth from currency debasement and see gold as a safer bet over a digital entry in a bank's computer (is 'cash' in the bank really safe anymore?). Given the right circumstances, it is quite conceivable that the combined demand for gold could overwhelm supply and such an occurrence could happen very quickly before most realize what's happening. That's when we would learn the true meaning of the word: parabolic.
    Aug 9 02:54 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Complacent Investors In Danger [View article]
    Excellent article!
    Aug 7 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDP And Fed Statement Equal More Of The Same [View article]
    It is interesting that Jim Cramer would be permitted to bring attention (to the masses) that there may be something fishy with the government supplied GDP numbers. The average American is somewhat aware that the there is something very wrong with the official inflation numbers (by way of rising costs of necessities of daily living) and the unemployment numbers are, at best, misleading about the true state of job market. Can any government supplied number be trusted to be accurate?
    It would seem that the current administration has perfected the art of deceiving it's citizens and has done so without being challenged in a meaningful way by a cooperative media. Sadly, the situation will probably get worse before it gets better.
    Aug 5 11:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment