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  • Is Silver Really In Short Supply? [View article]
    Doug, thanks for clarifying the fact that there is no real shortage of silver. So many authors have written so many words about the 'meaning' of silver (and gold) premiums over spot.
    Your article will infuriate those who insist that coin sales and supplier shortages must somehow be indicative of the overall health of the PM markets.
    Oct 19, 2015. 10:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Resist The Urge To Chase This Market [View article]
    I enjoyed this article as it provided perspective as to what is happening with the US market. It is noteworthy that many of the world's markets did enter into 'official' bear market territory and most are still down at least 10% from their highs. The US markets have been a pillar of strength compared to most others but that may not last.

    The crowding of money into fewer and fewer high flying stocks is very typical of last stages of a bull market and during the early stages of a a bear market. That said, a new S&P all time high is still very possible (given that it is only 5% from it's all time high), but I would see it as gift to those who want to get short for the inevitable.
    Oct 16, 2015. 03:38 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Be Fooled: A Stealth Bull Market In Gold And Silver Is Underway [View article]
    "To be sure, low prices for gold and silver have absolutely decimated the mining industry". I wouldn't be so sure of that being the case. Agnico Eagle, Goldcorp, Newmont, just to name a few, are doing just fine. Their stock prices have been decimated, yes, but the balance sheets, not so much. Coal, natural gas, and many junior oil companies are in far worse shape.
    Oct 9, 2015. 02:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A 500-Point Cyclical "Bear" Correction - Risks To 1650 SPX [View article]
    Robert, there is nothing wrong with flip flopping, just look all the interviews Dennis Gartman gets. You might get a call from CNBC!
    Oct 5, 2015. 11:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: Now That's A Dead Cat Bounce! What's Next? [View article]
    Doug, I always have high regard for your assessment of the gold market. Your track record is a good one. I don't play the gold market much anymore because I can't get a good handle on it.(too much manipulation excuse?) However, I do have a few junior gold miners. They have not performed well during this most recent bounce which is consistent with your expectation for a further decline in gold prices.
    Sep 25, 2015. 11:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Is Not The Start Of A Bear Market [View article]
    Just Read: China's SSE Composite is down 40.1% from it's highs just three months ago, a drop that is worse than any other stock exchange. That, my friend is not rhetoric, just facts. You don't like the word "imploding"? Give me another that works for you.

    With respect to GDP numbers, well, you can't play a GDP number and most bear markets have begun while the media is reporting strong GDP numbers. No serious investor give's a rats ass about much doctored and stale dated official GDP numbers that are subject to revision as the 'goal posts' are constantly being moved to support government narrative. No successful investor gives a rat's ass about GDP numbers.

    I suggest you do some fact checking of your own before you put your money into the market based on something as flimsy as "absolute annual change of income".
    Sep 25, 2015. 10:04 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Is Not The Start Of A Bear Market [View article]
    Cam, thanks for nice charts but your focus is a little too narrow. Forget about the US for a minute and let us look at the bigger picture. If you want to see charts that clearly show blow off topping formations, then have a look at some of the European stock exchanges:
    German DAX down 23.8%
    Euro STOXX down 26.0%
    British FTSE down 16.3%
    French CAC down 17.7%

    All these exchanges have marched upward in harmony with the S&P since 2009. They have spiked up in classic blow off fashion and then rolled over, sharply, into what looks very much like a stage one bear markets. One might conclude that only Europe has been hit hard but looking at the even bigger picture confirms that is not the case. Japan's Nikkei is down 16% (despite direct government intervention to prop up prices). China's government is doing the same while their market implodes. The Brazilian exchange is down 23%. Other emerging markets are in equally bad shape. Even the markets of the rich Arab countries are sliding.

    The S&P is currently down a mere 9.48% and it's being called a "CRASH". Please. Many analysts are attempting to 'talk up' the market with any piece of good news they can come up with. SA articles, like this one, are full of yummy looking positive data charts. No one wants to admit that the party is over when the economy 'appears' to be fine. That is so typical during the first leg of a bear market.

    Is the US going to remain relatively unscathed by the global sell off of equities? Well, anything is possible but it would appear as if the US markets are just hanging on by a thread. Maybe there will be a delayed 'blow off' yet (which I doubt) but ultimately, I expect we shall see much lower numbers in the not too distant future.
    Sep 25, 2015. 12:39 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday's Stock Sell-Off And The Fed's Epic Fail [View article]
    Eric: One would think that the recent correction would have resulted in a change of sector leadership. For the most part, it hasn't. Biotech (XBI) continues to out perform while the mining industries (XME) continues to under perform. The one notable exception has been the gold miners (GDX). However, a few days of strength has to be viewed with caution given that the miners have consistently failed to sustain advances for over the past four years. Any thoughts?
    Sep 21, 2015. 10:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing 2015 To Past Market Bottoms [View article]
    I don't disagree with most of what you are saying regarding the definition of a bear market versus a correction. Bear markets should be defined as a function of duration as well total decline rather than just percentage decline alone. I also agree that the crash of 87 was more of a severe correction rather than a real bear market, but it is widely accepted to be the latter. Definitions are rigid goal posts that sometimes fail to accurately describe the state of the economy or the stock market. That said, stock market drops of 20% or more have occurred without an accompanied recession (as defined as two successive quarters of negative GDP) and that is the point I wished to make.
    Sep 20, 2015. 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing 2015 To Past Market Bottoms [View article]
    Reel Ken : "Bear markets most often accompany recessions." Very true but the reverse is not so cut and dried. Bear markets have occurred without a recession being a factor. The crash of 87 is a good example. The market was way over valued, not unlike the market of today, and a crash took the froth off the bubble.

    I suggested that the market could further deteriorate until the FED initiates the first rate increase. It is abundantly clear that the FED has no intention of hiking rates until they are satisfied that the economy is on a sustainable recovery path. Perhaps they have access to 'real' economic numbers (as opposed to the much doctored public versions) and know full well that things are not so hunky dory as the GDP, CPI and Unemployment numbers would suggest. The 9 to 1 vote against raising rates speaks volumes about what the FED knows about the state of the economy.

    I don't think the FED is currently active in supporting the stock market This most recent correction has not snapped back with the vigor we have seen after previous pullbacks. Something has changed. We could see a painful period of adjustment to valuations that have been pumped to nose bleed levels. The wait is on for the FED to give the "all clear' signal by raising rates. Until then, the market could drift sideways or more likely, down. It should be noted that stock markets almost always do well during the initial period of FED rate increases.
    Sep 19, 2015. 08:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing 2015 To Past Market Bottoms [View article]
    The author put a lot of work into this interesting presentation. Thanks for the effort. I agree that the current pullback looks similar to that of 2011 and it may very well play out in similar fashion, however, there is one important difference. The correction of 2011 had only 12 months, or so, of a market bullishness behind it whereas today we have nearly four years of an uninterrupted rise. The current 11% correction is hardly a blip in the big picture.

    The correction may be far from being over and in we may already be in a bear market with no recovery in the immediate future. I suspect that the market will continue deteriorating, perhaps until the FED actually does bump up the rates.
    Sep 19, 2015. 11:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Leading Indicators Not So 'Leading' For Robust Economic Activity [View article]
    Why did the FED back away from a ridiculously small rate hike when the economy is supposedly in good shape (according to official numbers)? Is there a problem? Well, who really believes that the unemployment rate is only 5%, that inflation is under 2% or that GDP is currently a positive number? The data has become so hopelessly corrupted by 'adjustments' that it can no longer be trusted.

    The FED's failure to raise rates even a tiny amount is very telling of what they are thinking. The 9 to 1 vote against raising was a strong signal that they are plenty worried. The bull market peak may already be in the rear view mirror.
    Sep 19, 2015. 03:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude At $20 - Value Trap Or Compelling Buy? [View article]
    Okay, we might as well short the oil to the max and get rich with Goldman's help. Great bunch of bankers.
    Sep 19, 2015. 01:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Decisions' Vast Gold/SPX Impact Due To Reverse In Tightening [View article]
    Good article. There is no doubt that stock prices have been very much in tune with the actions of the Fed and that should be expected. Gold, on the other hand, is not affected to the same degree, at least over a longer period. Gold's price is a function of many variables that are world wide in nature.

    While the actions of the FED do affect the US dollar, and therefore indirectly on the price of gold, as well as other commodities, it is only to the extent of the currency fluctuation. FED actions do not change the supply/demand dynamic and that is the real driver for the pricing of any commodity.
    Sep 18, 2015. 04:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This The End Of The U.S Shale Gas Revolution? [View article]
    The natural gas producer stocks are in far worse shape than those in oil only. The ETF, FCG, is down 65% in the past year. It's a buy for the longer term.
    Sep 18, 2015. 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment