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  • Vast Mean-Reversion Buying To Fuel A Mighty Gold Upleg In 2016  [View article]
    This article is an excellent recap of gold's dismal performance and he even 'nails' all the various reasons for the rather steep decline. Mr Hamilton deserves credit for being consistent with his message for the past five years. Not once did he advise anyone to sell their gold and silver.
    Jan 2, 2016. 10:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We Due For A Stock Market Crash?  [View article]
    The author is just one more addition to the very long list of those who have pointed out that the stock market is over stretched (myself included). It's hard to shake the old school thinking that fundamentals will eventually prevail but that that stance has been unrewarding over the past few years.

    Far too many authors and investors (gamblers?) are bearish and unfortunately, that situation is not very conducive for expectations of a crash happening anytime soon. Like many others, I am primarily short but I confess that I greatly fear the possibility of a big sling shot move to the upside as that is what it would take to convince the bears to abandon what ever short positions they hold. Only then would the market have a reason to crash. Just my opinion but I sure do wish I could see into the future.
    Dec 31, 2015. 01:19 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Natural Gas Set To Recover?  [View article]
    FCG is a buy for a long term investment.
    Dec 22, 2015. 11:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Market Update: The Fed Raises Rates, The S&P Trades Up, Then Down And Now Sits In 'No Man's Land'  [View article]
    Fear & Greed: I always enjoy reading your articles even though I don't see things quite the way that you do. However, credit is due for the time you spend digging up statistics that counter the bearish outlook put forth by others.


    You are aware, no doubt, that since you began writing your bullish articles here on SA, the markets have pretty much gone no where. The S&P is down close to 6% from it's peak back in May and thus far, 2015 is shaping up to be a losing year. The Russell 2000 peaked out in June and is now nearly 7% from it's highs. Those numbers to not appear to be too alarming until one considers the Dow Jones Transportation Index which is down almost 20% from it's high made way back in November of 2014 and that is in spite of falling fuel costs. There is definitely something amiss in that sector and overall, the market isn't looking too healthy.


    It has been pointed out by others, that if it weren't for a select half dozen or so stocks that have been bid up to nose bleed levels, the S&P would be down quite substantially from it's current levels and it's true. The industrial, manufacturing and commodity producer stocks are in a severe slump while social media, entertainment and advertising revenue based stocks like Facebook, Netflix and Google soar, keeping the S&P elevated. I personally do not see those types of companies as 'wealth' or jobs creators. Do you?

    As I said, I enjoy reading your articles but I think you may trying a little too hard to paint a pretty picture of what has developed into a very ugly situation. Putting lipstick on this pig may prove to be a futile effort.
    Dec 20, 2015. 01:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • eBay: Many Positives For This Online Retail Marketplace  [View article]
    Fear & Greed: I always enjoy reading your articles even though I don't see things quite the way that you do. However, credit is due for the time you spend digging up statistics that counter the bearish outlook put forth by others.

    You are aware, no doubt, that since you began writing your bullish articles here on SA, the markets have pretty much gone no where. The S&P is down close to 6% from it's peak back in May and thus far, 2015 is shaping up to be a losing year. The Russell 2000 peaked out in June and is now nearly 7% from it's highs. Those numbers to not appear to be too alarming until one considers the Dow Jones Transportation Index which is down almost 20% from it's high made way back in November of 2014 and that is in spite of falling fuel costs. There is definitely something amiss in that sector and overall, the market isn't looking too healthy.

    It has been pointed out by others, that if it weren't for a select half dozen or so stocks that have been bid up to nose bleed levels, the S&P would be down quite substantially from it's current levels and it's true. The industrial, manufacturing and commodity producer stocks are in a severe slump while social media, entertainment and advertising revenue based stocks like Facebook, Netlfix and Google soar, keeping the S&P elevated. I personally do not see those types of companies as 'wealth' or jobs creators. Do you?

    As I said, I enjoy reading your articles but I think you may trying a little too hard to paint a pretty picture of what has developed into a very ugly situation. Putting lipstick on this pig may prove to be a futile effort.
    Dec 19, 2015. 07:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gold Is Going To 1500, Not 1000  [View article]
    Mr Kaplan, what makes you vulnerable to deserved criticism is the fact you are a "for hire' analyst. Those who have been unfortunate enough to be one of your paying customers have suffered enormous losses made even more painful by the fact that they have paid you for your lack of insight.

    Clearly, after four years of clueless and failed recommendations , it is abundantly clear that you are not some sort of market guru with special intelligent insight. Any successes that you have had pale in comparison to the multitude of very bad calls. Your track record isn't even close to being 50% right. (More like 10%). That's very bad, no matter how you slice and dice it.
    Dec 14, 2015. 05:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Central Banks Are Doing Some Interesting Things With Gold And Foreign Exchange Reserves  [View article]
    yeti786 : I am not getting your point. The facts are indisputable: Gold has been in a bear market for four years. All the stories to date, concerning the latest purchases by the Chinese and Russian central banks, as well as stories about declining COMEX inventories, have done absolutely nothing to reverse gold's downward trajectory. What those articles have accomplished is to encourage people to be on the wrong side of an entrenched trend. The end.
    Dec 14, 2015. 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Central Banks Are Doing Some Interesting Things With Gold And Foreign Exchange Reserves  [View article]
    Hebba: I loved the analogy! Good one. It may ultimately prove to be very appropriate as it applies to gold but I am doubtful. With respect to the COMEX, well it is an indisputable fact that there has been zero positive correlation between the levels of gold stored at the COMEX and the price of gold. I suspect that if the owners were to withdraw all of their gold from the COMEX (presumably to store it elsewhere), it would not change gold's price one iota.

    With respect to central bank purchases of gold, well, despite large purchases by Russia, China, and others, gold has remained in a nasty bear market for over four years. I am not sure how it can be construed that reports of PAST bank purchases can somehow be relevant to what the price of gold will be in the future. What's the connection? So far, there has been none.

    We should keep in mind that central bank holdings are actually a huge source of supply that can be dumped onto the market at any time. They buy from the mines and do not consume the gold that they accumulate. Central banks are really acting as warehouses for gold in much the same way has gold ETFs were storing gold in large quantities prior to 2012. We all know what happened when those positions were unwound and hundred of tons of gold were dumped on the market in short order.

    Venezuela is just one country which is in the process of unloading their gold due to financial problems. Given that there are a number of countries with massive debt problems one has to wonder how many more hundreds of tons might be dumped into a weak market?
    Dec 12, 2015. 06:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Fed May Be Turning Into The Stock Market's Foe: A Detailed Discussion  [View article]
    Thanks for the good read. Lots to think about.
    Dec 10, 2015. 01:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Central Banks Are Doing Some Interesting Things With Gold And Foreign Exchange Reserves  [View article]
    We have been hearing about Russia and China central banks buying tons gold for years (literally) and what has the price done? DOWN. By now, it should be obvious that central bank purchases offer no clue as to where gold will be next week, next month, or next year. The same applies to the COMEX inventories, a subject that Hebba has beat to death with countless articles suggesting profound 'meaning' behind the declining COMEX gold inventories. It has all proven to be meaningless 'evidence' that has served no useful purpose other than to suck hapless investors into being on the wrong side of a nasty bear market.

    When gold finally does bottom and begin a new bull market, it will do so for reasons that no one will truly understand until it's well on it's way. I will not be counting on Hebba to be on top of that move, whenever that may be.
    Dec 9, 2015. 04:29 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EIA Says Shale Continues To Decline  [View article]
    The rig count declines are significant in that they pretty much guarantee that a shortage of crude supply will occur some time in the not too distant future. Now that crude is below $40, rig counts should fall further. Production will fall as it must.

    It may be a good time to begin accumulating shares of energy related ETFs. I am avoiding the shares of individual companies even though many are extremely cheap. The threat of bankruptcy is very real for many of the debt laden juniors and mid-tier producers. Many of the Canadian producers have balance sheets which are hopelessly trashed. Many will be going under even if oil rebounds. ETFs are a much safer play.
    Dec 8, 2015. 07:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Continues To Struggle  [View article]
    The April or May futures are a good bet for someone who likes to gamble. The payoff could be huge if the weather turns abnormally cold during the first quarter of next year. However, it should be noted that natural gas is NEVER a sure thing. I am avoiding the triple leveraged UGAZ right now as the contango will be murder on UGAZ pricing.

    FCG, as a play on Natural Gas companies, looks very tempting as a long term investment.
    Dec 8, 2015. 06:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gold Is Going To 1500, Not 1000  [View article]
    Any analyst or so called market guru who repeats the same message over and over will someday get it right, even if it takes years. When the markets finally go their way, they will then claim vindication for their stance and go on pretending that they have some special insight. Trust me when I say that they don't.

    One thing these types never want to talk about is the efficient deployment of capital. If one started buying GDX at $45 and it bottoms out three years later at $14, how insightful was that? The same could be said for COPX, FCG , URA, etc. Negative returns for three years in a row is nothing to get excited about. It is really tough to justify the massive draw downs that can occur when sticking to a 'buy and hold as long as it takes' strategy when there are so many other opportunities for capital appreciation.

    I freely admit that I do not know where gold or the stock market will be six months or a year from now. I have been shorting the S&P for some time in the belief that it is over valued and long due for a real correction. That said, I am only guessing. I have no special insight but then I certainly don't expect anyone to pay me for just guessing.
    Dec 5, 2015. 04:34 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These Charts Are Screaming 'Recession'  [View article]
    Thanks for the well presented article.
    Dec 4, 2015. 09:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gold Is Going To 1500, Not 1000  [View article]
    "I would be highly suspicious of the comments of anyone who has no public track record, and can therefore make all meaningless criticisms with perfect hindsight."
    Mr Kaplan, what 'comments' are you referring to? Feel free to copy and paste.
    Dec 2, 2015. 08:31 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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