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  • NatGas Selling Window Opens As Prices Rally After Inventory Deficit Widens [View article]
    Hmm... that chart is showing what looks like a perfect 'rounding' bottom.
    Aug 10 02:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The S&P 500 And The Russian Black Swan [View article]
    A Russian invasion of Ukraine could not really be classed as a "Black Swan" event. Too many people expect that very thing to happen. Now, if Ukraine were to come forth with some those nukes that are rumored to have gone 'missing' while Ukraine was disarming and mushroom clouds were to appear over Russian troops, then we would have a real Black Swan event that would send financial markets reeling.
    Aug 10 02:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Flagship Gold ETF's Holdings Set To Surge As Stock Traders Return [View article]
    How can one know for sure that GLD's sponsor is actually taking possession of gold on behalf of those who buy their ETF? Who is doing the regulating and have there been indepedent audits of assets performed?
    Aug 9 03:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The GLD Today: Looming Weekend Outweighs Interfax Report [View article]
    Mr. Kaminis, sorry about the misspell (I did get right the second time). Like you, I expect that gold will eventually head for much higher numbers and it is agreed that Putin (and many others) would like to see the US dollar lose it's status of being the world's currency for trade. However, we disagree as to what the catalyst will be that will send gold on a sustainable upward trajectory. The crisis in Ukraine is not going to do the job and even if Russia invades, the effect on gold will be temporary.

    A direct military conflict between Russia and the West would undoubtedly send gold up for a longer period but in order for gold to "go to the moon", a complete loss of confidence in the world's financial system is what it would take. That almost happened in 2008 and confidence will almost certainly be tested again in the future.
    Aug 9 02:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The GLD Today: Looming Weekend Outweighs Interfax Report [View article]
    In March, gold peaked out at $1392. In July, gold peaked out at $1345. Now we are at $1309. Despite the threats of Russia going to war with Ukraine, Iraq falling apart, the Israel-Hamas war, gold has really gone nowhere, despite Mr. Karminis' relentless attempts to 'talk ' gold upward.

    When gold resumes it's bull run, it will not be because of some regional war that has Mr Kaminis salivating, but because of rising demand for physical gold by the citizens (and central banks) of likes of India, China, Russia, etc.

    The central banks of the West have done much to erode the trust of the common man in paper currencies. The money printing exercises appear to be schemes not unlike that those of a counterfeiter. Some may wish to protect their wealth from currency debasement and see gold as a safer bet over a digital entry in a bank's computer (is 'cash' in the bank really safe anymore?). Given the right circumstances, it is quite conceivable that the combined demand for gold could overwhelm supply and such an occurrence could happen very quickly before most realize what's happening. That's when we would learn the true meaning of the word: parabolic.
    Aug 9 02:54 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Complacent Investors In Danger [View article]
    Excellent article!
    Aug 7 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDP And Fed Statement Equal More Of The Same [View article]
    It is interesting that Jim Cramer would be permitted to bring attention (to the masses) that there may be something fishy with the government supplied GDP numbers. The average American is somewhat aware that the there is something very wrong with the official inflation numbers (by way of rising costs of necessities of daily living) and the unemployment numbers are, at best, misleading about the true state of job market. Can any government supplied number be trusted to be accurate?
    It would seem that the current administration has perfected the art of deceiving it's citizens and has done so without being challenged in a meaningful way by a cooperative media. Sadly, the situation will probably get worse before it gets better.
    Aug 5 11:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Thursday's Sell-Off Matters [View article]
    On a monthly chart, today's action is hardly a blip. Sure, it could be the start of a bigger correction but then again, bull markets tend not to die easily. The bulk of my money is on the short side but it is imperative to remember that bull markets seldom peak out when expected.

    A 10% correction would be nice for the shorts but it is doubtful the FED would be willingly allow all their work to be unraveled by an inconvenient bear market, at least, not all at once.
    Jul 31 08:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's On! EU Sanctions Of Russia Matter To The SPDR Gold Trust [View article]
    Thus far, Russian sanctions and gold have demonstrated a short lived correlation that evaporates rather quickly. Ditto for the crisis in Ukraine and it's effect on gold, no matter how often this author tries to spin it otherwise.
    Jul 31 11:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The No Market Volatility Fairytale [View article]
    Like the author, I have had some spectacular gains playing the volatility derivatives. Like the author, I will make no mention of the times I lost money on those same derivatives. This monkey learns.
    Jul 30 05:16 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Questions Regarding The Recent Fall In Natural Gas Prices [View article]
    The cool summer in the east has taken it's toll on NG pricing. Injections have been on the high side so we may not have seen the seasonal low just yet. Let's see what August brings.
    Jul 28 11:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A World Without Consequences [View article]
    Eric, this article is a good read and a testament to your ability to look a the big picture. Thanks.
    Jul 25 03:14 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Is The Most Hated Bull Market Of All Time - Understanding The Folly Of Financial Engineering [View article]
    Good article and I agree with Mr Stubers's conclusions. The end will be quite nasty however, we may not be there just yet.

    Corporations, with their share buybacks and the banks, armed with QE money, have both become significant players on the major stocks markets of the West (Germany, UK, France, Canada, US, etc) They have replaced the retail customer of the past who were characterized by their frequent bouts of profit taking that would routinely drag down an index by 10% or more. In contrast, today we are seeing shallow and short lived corrections with little evidence of retail profit taking.

    There is one very important difference between the corporate/banking type investor of today and the baby boomer retail investor of the past. Unlike the regular retail investor, corporations are not accumulating shares for resale but instead are buying for cancellation purposes. Billions (trillions?) of dollars worth of shares are gone and will not be suddenly dumped back on to the market. It is noteworthy in that corporate buybacks do not contribute to profit taking events because they are not reselling tendered shares.

    Working alongside the corporations are the banks who have not only been extending loans to finance corporate buybacks, but have also been buying shares themselves in order to obtain a yield that provides a better return than what they can get elsewhere. These banks are in no rush to divest themselves of their high yielding shares and won't be until interest rates rise enough to make it advantageous to do so. The same applies to the corporations who will cease buying when financing becomes non cost effective.

    What does this mean for the future? Well, the number of sellers is currently shrinking with the remaining shares, currently in circulation, being perused by entities with very deep pockets. That dynamic could take the market far higher than level what the average investor or analyst would consider to be 'overbought'. The market is currently in a steady, but steep angle of ascent that is just starting to take on the look of parabolic move. The upside is that true parabolic moves always end with devastating crashes. I doubt that this time it will be any different. In my opinion, those who are short now will ultimately see profits but it could be nerve racking and frustrating wait for the payoff. Good luck to all, long or short.
    Jul 24 06:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inflation Vs. Deflation [View article]
    Jason: Do you actually believe the government supplied inflation numbers? Perhaps someone does your shopping for you so have no clue what is going up in price? Here's an education: Inflation is here and is anything but subdued. Yes, Jason, your government really does mislead it's citizens. The pretense of fighting deflation is a similar to what some would call a 'false flag' event in an economic war that is being waged against the standard of living of the US middle class.

    Now, about your half price housing. Home prices are NOT part of the calculation of CPI, but a so called " owner's equivalent of rent" is. It's a subjective calculation, easily manipulated, and it that leaves a lot to be desired in terms of reflecting how much it costs to live in a home.

    US house prices collapsed because of the fraudulent lending practices of US based banks and was not symptomatic of widespread deflation in the general economy. In fact, the US housing crisis did not spread to most other developed countries. Canada, Australia and the UK, just to name a few, have all experienced substantial annual home price increases, unchecked, for the past decade. Real inflation is now a world wide problem and getting worse quickly.
    Jul 18 12:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inflation Vs. Deflation [View article]
    I am fed up with analysts and assorted talking heads talking about deflation when it is so clear that inflation is rampant. Everything we buy is going up and at an accelerated pace: food, rent, restaurant meals, gasoline, power, heating and water bills, taxes by all government levels and yes, even televisions. Commentators or contributors who wish to yap about deflation should be required to provide specific examples of real world deflation in something we can relate to.
    Jul 17 07:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment