Seeking Alpha

eagle1003

eagle1003
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View eagle1003's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • There Are Strange Things Happening With The Gold Held At The Gold ETFs [View article]
    leo: Thanks for the link..."oversupply"... right off the lips of the CEO of Rangold. I guess he should know!
    Nov 9, 2014. 03:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Are Strange Things Happening With The Gold Held At The Gold ETFs [View article]
    This has to the most convoluted theory I have ever read that attempts. among other things, to explain the glaring contradiction between a gold demand that is supposedly booming (Chinese) while at the same time, price has been tanking for the past three years. The logic presented in the article is tough to follow. I think I will go with the simpler explanation that the Chinese demand isn't what it is trumped up to be or, if it is, demand has fallen elsewhere to such a degree that Chinese consumption is not sufficient to keep the price up.

    The implication that the gold miners are having 'trouble' supplying the gold market is highly questionable when one looks at how much already mined inventory is on the balance sheets of some producers. Many of the gold miners, such as Barrick, Eldorado, Kinross, Newmont, just to name a few and according to their latest financial statements, have plenty of inventory on hand and in some some cases, much higher than that of a year ago. Incidentally, high inventories, of anything, is usually not a good thing for future pricing. So, is there 'trouble' supplying the market? How so?

    It should also be noted that GLD does not produce gold nor warehouse it to any significant degree (unlike the Sprott ETF which does have it's gold on hand, and is redeemable to anyone). Also, what evidence is there that large holders of ETF paper, are actually taking delivery? And please note that conjecture is not evidence.
    Nov 9, 2014. 12:37 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Bug Psychology Must Be Neutered [View article]
    I have come to the conclusion that it is next to impossible to play the gold market successfully, for two main reasons.

    A) The price of gold is not set by the normal commodity supply/demand equation. In fact, it is set by a paper market that consists directly of the commodity gold exchanges (such as the COMEX) , and by the allegedly gold backed ETFs. I say "allegedly" because the source of much of their gold 'holdings' are by way of leasing agreements with banks and other entities that allow for the same gold to leased to multiple clients. In most cases, no actual gold leaves their vaults. It's all electronic transfers. This arrangement does nothing for the miners and does not change real gold consumption one bit.

    B) Naked short selling of gold is not only allowed by the CME group (COMEX) but actively encouraged by way of special discounted fees to it's most revered clients, the FED, it's banking agents and other central banks, notably, that of the UK. This cosy arrangement allows the FED to keep gold prices on a leash and it is they that decide what the price will be, not the physical market.

    In my opinion, any kind of chart analysis is useless when the price is so aggressively controlled by just a few entities. Fundamentals are meaningless as is evidenced by the fact that gold goes down even while demand is robust. The Fed and other Central banks have unlimited dollars to carry on with business as usual and what have we got? Charts with resistance and support zones that seem to be anything but, and Fibonacci targets that are supposedly based on some sort of herd mentality. Really? It's laughable to suggest that the charts could possibly predict when and where the FED will intervene in order to preserve confidence in the US dollar. They will even allow gold to rally, on occasion, but are there to smack it down when they feel it's warranted.

    Yes, it is true the the fledgling physical gold exchanges of Asia may ultimately over throw the West's stranglehold on the gold's price, but when? That may not occur for years and even if it were to happen tomorrow, that doesn't mean gold would necessarily go to the moon. China is the big player in this scenario and it is not in their immediate interests to see gold shoot up while the American dollar collapses. They still have plenty invested in the health of the American economy and dollar.

    So, in conclusion, is there any point of trying to beat the FED at a game in which they have, by far, the best hand? Playing gold and it's miners is okay if one is very conservative with their cash but to go all in, based on the belief that eventually the dollar will crash and burn, would be just nuts.
    Nov 8, 2014. 03:02 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Real' Reason Gold Will See $5000 [View article]
    I have come to the conclusion that it is next to impossible to play the gold market successfully, for two main reasons.

    A) The price of gold is not set by the normal commodity supply/demand equation. In fact, it is set by a paper market that consists directly of the commodity gold exchanges (such as the COMEX) , and by the allegedly gold backed ETFs. I say "allegedly" because the source of much of their gold 'holdings' are by way of leasing agreements with banks and other entities that freely allow for the same gold to leased to multiple clients. In most cases, no actual gold leaves their vaults. It's all electronic 'transfers'. This arrangement does nothing for the miners and does not change real gold consumption one bit.

    B) Naked short selling of gold is not only allowed by the CME group (COMEX) but actively encouraged by way of special discounted fees to it's most revered clients, the FED and the other central banks, notably, of the UK. This cosy arrangement allows the FED to keep gold prices on a leash and it is they that decide what the price will be, not the physical market.

    Looking at charts is useless when the price is so aggressively controlled by just a few entities. Fundamentals are meaningless. They have unlimited dollars to carry on with business as usual and what have we got? Charts with silly resistance and support zones, and Fibonacci lines that never stop moving. It's laughable to suggest that the charts could possibly predict when and where the FED will intervene.

    Yes, it is true the the fledgling physical gold exchanges of Asia may ultimately over throw the West's stranglehold on the gold's price, but when? It may not occur for years and even if it were to happen tomorrow, that doesn't mean gold would necessarily go to the moon. China is the big player in this scenario and it is not in their immediate interests to see gold shoot up while the American dollar collapses. They have plenty invested in the health of the American economy.

    So, in conclusion, what is the point of trying to beat the FED at their game? I personally have some junior mining stocks but have no intention in investing big dollars into something that is subject to the heavy hand of the FED.
    Nov 8, 2014. 01:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's All Good [View article]
    Thanks for a nicely researched article. It's hard to argue with facts and the author has done a great job. We've been hearing a lot lately about how this is usually a good time of the year to be in stocks (Nov.-Dec.). Since the general consensus hasn't gotten it right, on anything, for the past five years, it would probably be wise to be suspicious of this latest stock market surge.
    Nov 6, 2014. 09:59 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Rally Just Another Opportunity To Sell [View article]
    This is not a great time of the year to shorting natural gas. That time has already passed. If the weather becomes unseasonably cold, the shorts will be scrambling. Shorting UGAZ could be an unpleasant experience if NG jumps during pre/post market trading. UGAZ can move several percent (up or down), very very quickly. Sleeping could prove to be a risky and costly luxury while being short NG and even more so when short UGAZ.

    I am long and adding to my position. I will buy any dip with enthusiasm. I see $5 or better not too far down the road.
    Nov 5, 2014. 02:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Real' Reason Gold Will See $5000 [View article]
    Hmm...Okay. Well, the Russians are watching gold soar, in their currency, as are the Japanese as well as others in various currency challenged countries.

    Thankfully for Americans, they can rely on Elliot Wave to show the true path gold is following, based on charts of gold priced in the only currency that really matters, their own, of course.

    No doubt, an EW proponent in Russia is now claiming that he was right all along about gold, thanks to his EW studies that showed the probability of a strong breakout to the upside (in Rubles). Of course, a crashing ruble would too fundamental to consider just like an appreciating American dollar is of no consequence.
    Nov 4, 2014. 07:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful: Gold Miners Primed For Strong Returns [View article]
    I sure hope this author has got it right because I have a some junior miners that have lost 50% in the past few months. Ouch!

    I much prefer playing natural gas as it does behave somewhat in line with the fundamentals of supply and demand. Gold, on the other hand, has far too many competing interests and is therefore unpredictable. I have no clue where gold is headed. Will it be higher a month from now? Flip a coin. How about six months from now...flip the same coin.

    Now, if one lived in Russia, thanks to a tanking currency, gold appears to be soaring, as priced in rubles. Gold investors there must have huge smiles on their faces! How is that fair? Aren't they supposed to be the bad guys? Smells like a conspiracy. I am not American but just like an American I just know that Obama must be to blame, somehow.
    Nov 4, 2014. 06:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrary To What Most Market Participants Believe, Our Dollar Is Verging On Collapse [View article]
    The author does pull together a lot of interesting facts that he tries hard to connect and draw conclusions from. He has made a good case concerning the disturbing corruption of the media. However, any demise of the dollar could be months or years away and that cannot be predicted accurately. He may or may not be right about about where the dollar is headed but his recommendation that investors buy TVIX as "affordable hedge" against the possibility of a stock correction is just downright lousy advice. He does mention that TVIX has never fallen below $2.50 as if that somehow makes it "affordable". Any experienced trader knows that on an investment of a fixed dollar amount, say $1000, the price of a $2 stock is no more "affordable" than a $20 stock.

    TVIX and UVXY are leveraged 2X against the VXX futures of the index, VIX. The monthly roll costs of these futures are horrendous! Accordingly, TVIX and UVXY lose value more rapidly than any other ETF or ETN you can name. For what it's worth, TVIX is less desirable than UVXY given that it is an ETN while the latter is an ETF. ETN's carry a credit risk and don't always track the way they should. TVIX has a nasty history of not tracking as expected.

    The performance of TVIX can be summed up as follows: The volatility index, the VIX, is actually up 8.5% thus far in 2014 while both TVIX and UVXY are down a whopping 62%! Ouch!

    Can one make money with TVIX? Yes, if one is lucky at gambling and buys the TVIX just before a crash. Of course, if one possesses a good quality crystal ball, a fortune can be made with TVIX and the demise of the dollar could be nailed down without being speculative. I sure wish I had one.
    Nov 4, 2014. 06:01 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Real' Reason Gold Will See $5000 [View article]
    Avi, congratulations for calling for a new low for gold (as it has as priced in American dollars). I do have a serious question for you. As an investor who plays the Forex and trades multiple currencies, I can say that the Japanese, Europeans, Russians, and most other non Americans, have yet to see gold break down into new lows. It some cases, it's actually making a series of higher lows, depending on which currency on is looking at.

    My question: Does the Elliot wave theory apply it's magic only to gold as priced in the American dollar or can all investors of the world expect to see gold making new lows in their home currencies?
    Nov 3, 2014. 11:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • With QE Training Wheels Off, How Long Can Market Stay Upright? [View article]
    After five years of fundamentals meaning nothing while the market climbed, now the improving economy is the goods news that will supposedly drive the market higher yet. Perhaps it will, at least for a while. However, it is not unusual for the first leg of a bear market to be accompanied by fantastic earnings reports and strong GDP numbers.

    The speed at which we have returned to the highs is breathtaking. It certainly looks like we are setting up for a true parabolic spike but then I suspect that it looks that way to just about everyone else. If the market does stall out at it's current level or even slightly higher, that would be a strong bearish signal.

    At this point, I can only justify being bearish on the overall market with the view that time is now on the side of the bears. Gold mining stocks are the exception to that bearish outlook as I believe they have been massively oversold.
    Nov 2, 2014. 10:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Collapsing As Predicted - Are You Ready To Listen Yet? [View article]
    Debutant : Nice work!
    Nov 1, 2014. 08:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Make-Or-Break Time For GLD [View article]
    Gold has to be the toughest commodity to trade with slumps that can go on for years. If one wants to play gold, the miners are probably the best bet as they will no doubt recover long before gold does. I have a modest collection of junior gold stocks that are not doing well at the moment but I have no intention of giving up on them as I suspect they will do well when the stock market rolls over and dies.

    I have no clue where gold is headed but would never bet the farm even if it were to go down below $1000.
    Oct 30, 2014. 10:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook Told By Leveraged-Long ETF Hedging Of Market-Makers [View article]
    Thanks for this excellent article. It's a rare treat to have someone explain how at least some of the so called 'smart money' operates. It does make one wonder how the retail investor can possibly hope to be a consistent winner.
    Oct 27, 2014. 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russians Make Largest Gold Purchase In 15 Years: What Does It Mean For Gold Investors? [View article]
    Yet another 'reason' why gold should go up....
    Oct 23, 2014. 03:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,568 Comments
2,282 Likes