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  • The Worst-Case Scenario For The Fed [View article]
    Lots of predictions. In my opinion, the rate is going up and the FED knows exactly what it's doing. There will be no more FED support for the stock market.
    Sep 17, 2015. 01:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Study: We're Nowhere Near Peak Coal Use In China And India [View article]
    I dumped my position in ACI and won't buy Peabody. The risk of both declaring bankruptcy is just too high. I especially don't trust ACI management. Those who want exposure to coal might want to consider the KOL etf. At least there is no chance of bankruptcy wiping you out overnight.

    One stock that I feel has a chance for substantial appreciation is Cloud Peak, (CLD). It has weathered the downturn fairly well and should be in no danger of bankruptcy unless there is further deterioration in the price of coal. That said, it would seem that bankruptcy has become a 'tool' for American companies to clear up their debt problems and as a bonus, the top brass gets to keep their high paying jobs. For those reasons, it would not be a great surprise to see ALL American coal companies declare bankruptcy just because it sure solves a lot of problems and wiped out shareholders are the least of management's concerns.
    Sep 16, 2015. 05:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • July/August Chinese Gold 'Demand' Exceeded Total Global Supply [View article]
    The Shanghai Gold Exchange is not a mine (source) but as it's title suggests, it is an exchange for gold traders. Flows in and out of the exchange are for gold that is already owned by someone. Much of the gold in existence today is recycled (changing ownership) and that sort of activity would most certainly be reflected on the exchange. Therefore, how could "flows" in and out of the exchange possibly be extrapolated as to being representative of demand for the supply of freshly mined gold?

    As the amount of gold flowing in and out of COMEX has been steadily declining over the past few years, there has been a corresponding increase in the activity at the Shanghai Gold Exchange as Asia becomes the center for gold trading, as would be expected now that the the biggest gold consumers (Asian) have an exchange closer to home. It should be noted that the Shanghai Gold Exchange is more 'honest' in it's function as it is a true exchange for physical gold, unlike the COMEX which is basically an exchange for paper gold and which is therefore subject to the manipulation of interested parties. For the most part, American traders are playing in what amounts to a fake gold market of digitized paper that is backed by a very low amount of actual gold.
    Sep 13, 2015. 11:47 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's New For The Coal Industry In General, Peabody Energy And Arch Coal In Particular? [View article]
    I got burned with ANR, who I thought had a fighting chance of surviving. I don't know why ACI and BTU are not declaring bankruptcy immediately but perhaps the insiders need more time to out of their share positions.
    Sep 11, 2015. 01:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What's New For The Coal Industry In General, Peabody Energy And Arch Coal In Particular? [View article]
    J457: great commentary. If bankruptcy meant that coal production were to be taken out of the market, prices would have a chance to recover but in the US, bankruptcy is just another tool for the corporations to reduce debt and obligations. They continue to produce coal that just adds
    an over supplied market.
    Sep 11, 2015. 01:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Another Episode In Boredom [View article]
    Alexander, I agree that it should be "mathematically unlikely" but you have to play these triple leveraged products to understand that there is more than just simple mathematics involved. Yes, the split itself is done with mathematical precision. It's after the reverse split has taken place that the price distortions occur. ETNs are known to drift from their Net Asset Value (NAV). It is important to note that the ETN sponsors are under no obligation to create or buy back units at any given time and they sometimes do not for periods that can be days or even weeks. (TVIX out of whack for weeks). Price distortions drift significantly from their NAV far more often than what most investors realize.

    A big problem for ETFs and ETNs investors, is that the whole industry is expected to be self regulating which in means in practice, that they are pretty much unregulated at all. During the most recent flash crash of August 8th, ETF and ETN prices became unglued from their NAV values by 20% to 30%. If prices were a perfect function of computer 'mathematics', and the sponsors were creating/cancelling units as they should, that should never happen. Think about it, if a sponsor can buy back units at prices far below NAV value and the price distortion can be blamed on the "damm computers" during periods of high volumes, and there is basically no oversight, why wouldn't they take advantage of the situation?
    Sep 10, 2015. 07:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Reasons Why Precious Metals And Junior Miners May Be The Safest Place To Be [View article]
    Jeb, I had to chuckle when I read the title of this article because for the past four years, the gold miners have proven to be anything but a 'safe' place to park one's money. However, your thesis has merit. I would add that a balance sheet examination of the major gold miners shows that most of them are in pretty good shape and some have been making money with gold at current prices. Most are in far better shape than those of the oil & gas sector.

    The junior players are hanging on tenaciously and some have even managed to raise capital (causing plenty of share dilution in the process). Only a few have gone under but keep in mind there are literally hundreds of 'pick and shovel' penny stocks with the word 'gold' in their name that have little chance of making anyone rich (other the stock promoters). That all said, it's hard to argue with facts and the reality has been that miner stocks have been under a relentless downward pressure that seems to never end. Yes, buying now may prove to have been an excellent investment down the road.

    It's the 'down the road' part that is problematic as it could be a short wait of less than a few months to years away. As the author pointed out, some very savvy investors are placing their bets on gold so it may be sooner than later when gold finally re-ignites into a bull market.
    Sep 10, 2015. 06:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These Charts Are Worth 1,000 Words [View article]
    S&P futures are not the S&P stock market. BIG difference. Ultimately, it is the stock market index that sets the futures price. Many times I have seen the futures rise through the night only to sell off the next morning as the stock market fails to follow. I have attributed the phenomena to speculation on the part of the Asian players who then get played by the American speculators during the following day of stock market trading.
    Sep 10, 2015. 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Without Much Fanfare COMEX Available Gold Drops To Lowest Levels On Record [View article]
    The COMEX is responsible for the content of it's designated depositories, regardless of who may be the operators of the warehouses. Walmart doesn't own all it's warehousing facilities either. It's an irrelevant issue.
    Sep 8, 2015. 10:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Another Episode In Boredom [View article]
    Who said anything about 'investor sentiment'? I play UGAZ all the time and fully understand the danger of hanging on to it for more than a few weeks. UGAZ has a very high decay rate due to it's structure and the very fact that it is a triple leveraged play. My point was that after a reverse split, these kinds of highly leveraged ETNs invariably decay even faster than normal during the first few weeks after the split. I don't know why, but it happens. Accordingly, I will buy something other than UGAZ, at least until well after the split, if I really feel the need to get in on the long side.

    Before someone chimes in about shorting UGAZ as a great idea, I say it is just that, an idea. Will your broker will allow the position and if so, how long will you be permitted to keep the short on before they 'call' the shares back without your consent? Bin there, done that.
    Sep 8, 2015. 12:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Would Be Wise To Consider Arch Coal To Play A Coal Market Rebound [View article]
    The ANR filing caught me off guard. Walter Energy and James River were obviously in deep trouble and had only one way out. That did not appear to be the case with ANR. It would no longer surprise me to see ACI and BTU filing soon. Bankruptcy has become just another 'tool' for American business to screw the maximum number of stakeholders ( pensioners, suppliers, shareholders, etc) without endangering the jobs of those who are pulling the biggest salaries. (CEO, CFO, etc)
    Sep 8, 2015. 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Would Be Wise To Consider Arch Coal To Play A Coal Market Rebound [View article]
    Yes, it appears that ACI will perform the magic of bankruptcy on their balance sheet before too long. Even BTU looks like a candidate for bankruptcy.

    It getting to the point that I don't trust anything "American'. It appears that the business and political establishment has become immoral and unethical to the extreme. You know things are pretty bad when the likes of Donald Trump becomes a front runner for President. Even the people on food stamps and who rely on being bought off by the Democrats, know that status quo cannot continue.
    Sep 8, 2015. 12:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Without Much Fanfare COMEX Available Gold Drops To Lowest Levels On Record [View article]
    " the total value of the gold available for delivery in COMEX warehouses is only worth around $350 million." It would appear as if the banks (and others) are no longer using the COMEX warehousing services to store their bought and paid for gold, at least to the extent they once were . Gold is obviously being stored elsewhere. I wouldn't be surprised to see the COMEX some day shut down it's warehousing facilities for lack of business. The Asian exchanges have proven themselves to be a much better alternative to the COMEX.
    Sep 8, 2015. 11:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • No Safe Haven: Gold Theory Doesn't Work While Commodities Fall [View article]
    In my 37 years of trading, I have never seen gold act as a safe haven for more than a few days during a crisis. Gold goes up when no one expects and it goes down when everyone believes that it should be going up. I hate playing the gold sector. There is no predictability based on anything fundamental other than some short term moves during the Indian wedding season and this year, even that didn't move gold up. COMEX storage numbers, Chinese gold import numbers, blah, blah, all mean nothing. Gold is somewhat unique in that unlike most commodities, the vast majority of the 'product' is never consumed and accordingly, every nearly ever ounce that has been mined and sold, becomes a potential source of supply at some point.

    For gold, it's all about sentiment. Personally, I have much better luck with the volatile but somewhat predictable natural gas sector.
    Sep 8, 2015. 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Another Episode In Boredom [View article]
    The reverse split is bad news for UGAZ. Yes, the split doesn't change one's total dollar position but it is my observation that AFTER a reverse split, the price drops very quickly, even without a corresponding in the underlying commodity, I know that shouldn't happen but it does almost 100% of the time. Stay away from UGAZ for the time being.
    Sep 8, 2015. 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment