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  • China: The Global Demand Side Of The Oil Price Equation [View article]
    Excellent article with a 'big picture' viewpoint. I have been around long enough to know that oil gluts rarely last very long. We will be seeing oil well in excess of $100 before we know it and Chinese and Indian consumption will the driver.
    Apr 25, 2015. 11:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Russian Gold Reserves Jump In March: What It Means For Gold Investors [View article]
    Hebba attempts to shed some light on the recent purchases by the Russian central bank and proceeds to provide 'reasons' that hint of a hidden agenda. Of course, it must be a conspiracy of some sort. Right? Well, not really, read on.

    Hebba fails to tell the full story. The gold the Russian central bank is accumulating is not coming from the American based COMEX but rather from domestic mines which are hurting thanks to western sanctions and a low price. The Russian central bank is doing what it can to soak up excess production and keep the mines open. Think of it as an American style 'bailout'. No conspiracy here. Here is a link to a story concerning this issue:

    Russia is now the third largest gold producer in the world and produces nearly 250 metric tons of gold per year. Realistically, the 31 ton 'purchase' by the Russian central bank is a drop in the bucket and it puts zero pressure on western mine producers or on the price of gold.

    I think that gold will eventually resume it's bull market (as priced in US dollars). The American public is beginning to distrust it's government and it's only a matter of time before they lose faith in the value of the their currency. It will be Americans that drive up the price of gold, not the Russian government and a central bank.
    Apr 25, 2015. 10:56 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Battered NatGas Tests $2.50 As Injections Pick Up Steam [View article]
    Selling NG at $2.50 is a money losing proposition for many producers and obtaining additional financing to drill for even more money losing product is not going to be as easy as it was a few years ago. The bankers are nervous about throwing more money into drilling thanks to the collapse of energy prices. At some point, we should see a tightening in the supply.

    I have a modest long position and I admit that it's not looking very promising. However, I think I will hang for a few more weeks for a possible surprise rally that few would be expecting.
    Apr 24, 2015. 10:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Stocks: Timber! [View article]
    Is the FED or any other central bank buying lumber? Didn't think so. The mystery of non correlation is solved.
    Apr 23, 2015. 04:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Naked Truth [View article]
    Eric, this article was an excellent piece of work. Thank you for your effort.

    The traditional methods of evaluating equity value, just don't work anymore. Consider MacDonald's that announced the bad news of declining sales and the stock immediately jumped 3%. That is just nuts! However, it makes sense when one considers that MacDonald's allocated 20 billion to buy back their shares and what better time to support the share price than after the release of bad news?

    Then we have the Central banks whose stated goals has been to raise stock prices via QE type programs. Guess what. It works! True price discovery based on fundamentals is a thing of the past. The state of the economy has become irrelevant.

    Technical studies don't work anymore either. They are based on the concept that human emotions affect how stock prices evolve and that identifiable patterns emerge over time. Not any more. Central banks and Corporate entities are both unemotional 'investors' who produce only one pattern with their buying activities. (UP)

    Yeah, I know, it will all end badly one day. I confess that I have know idea when that day will be upon us.
    Apr 23, 2015. 12:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Naked Truth [View article]
    TF17: Good plan. Please assume the role of being "in charge", effective immediately.
    Apr 22, 2015. 10:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Naked Truth [View article]
    Fish: Well put. There are some who are in positions of power, who embrace all your listed 'solutions' with the exception of : "Plow huge money into research to make our factories more competitive and take manufacturing back from China?" Not going to happen. That would make too much sense.

    The real "PLAN" seems to revolve around America's favorite reality show: WAR.
    Apr 22, 2015. 10:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coal Market Will Rebound In The Long Term [View article]
    Coal stocks are a great buy if the republicans take the white house in 2016. I agree that Walter Energy is next in line for bankruptcy.
    Apr 15, 2015. 10:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Risk Reward Remains Firmly Skewed To The Downside In The S&P 500 [View article]
    In my opinion, we may be in the consolidation phase now.
    Apr 14, 2015. 02:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Risk Reward Remains Firmly Skewed To The Downside In The S&P 500 [View article]
    I like your work and agree that a sharp pullback before the final push up is a possibility. However, there have been few high profile exceptions to that scenario, notably, the crashes of 1929 and 1987, when the markets experienced a consolidation phase during the spring with final peaks occurring in the late summer.
    Apr 14, 2015. 02:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Bullish On Silver [View article]
    One very big problem when discussing ratios is that it is impossible to know how a ratio will revert to it's mean. For example, because the current sliver gold ratio is very high, does that mean that silver is undervalued and will go up or is that gold is too expensive and will come down? Just knowing what a ratio is and where it's at provides an investor with a non trade-able dilemma. Accordingly, ratios are not terribly useful.
    Apr 10, 2015. 03:39 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Long Awaited Correction At Hand? [View article]
    My crystal ball is telling me that we are going to see a significant correction of close to 20% before interest rates start to rise. That will be followed by a prolonged rally back up to new highs even while the FED is actively raising rates. New highs will be short lived and then be followed by a market crash that wipes out 80% of stock valuations.
    My opinion, of course, is worthless. Thank goodness we can rely on the crystal ball.
    Apr 6, 2015. 09:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Long Awaited Correction At Hand? [View article]
    s_belton12 : From the September 19th S&P intraday high at 2019.26 to the low on October 15th of 1820.66, my calculator tells me that it was a 9.83% correction. Technically, the author is correct. We have not had a correction of 10%, or greater, for almost four years.
    Apr 6, 2015. 09:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Forecast [View article]
    Who is doing the forecasting?
    Apr 4, 2015. 10:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Warning: The Greatest Market Crash Of Your Lifetime Is Coming [View article]
    Of course there will be a crash following a bull market. There always is. I think a crash is coming too. So what? The trick is to figure out when!

    Guys like DENT need to proclaim, on a regular basis, that a crash is coming so that when it finally happens, they can sell more books and get on to talk shows for having 'nailed it'. His predictions are worthless as he misses out on the gains to be made while the market is an uptrend.
    Apr 1, 2015. 12:03 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment