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  • Buy The Fear Now: Powerful Year-End Rally To 2250 On The S&P 500 [View article]
    Robert, it is quite conceivable that the market could rocket upward to new highs. It would be a move that would inflict maximum pain on those who are currently short, causing many to cover in disgust. However, in that scenario I would expect the trip back down to be particularly vicious with no time for the shorts to pile on. The other scenario would be for the market to churn sideways for a few months and then slowly slide down into a lengthy bear market with the shorts being too wore out by volatility to remain short for the long haul (covering at the first hint of a rally).

    I am bearish at the moment but recognize that there are far too many other investors who feel the same way. The market rarely rewards the majority and that is a concern.

    I asked you about the outlook for profits because that is all that really matters to the markets. If future profits are expected to be weak or declining, there is no way a bull market can continue for long.
    Sep 3, 2015. 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russian Market: Downside Is Not Over [View article]
    Noobie: "The russian economy has been the 3rd best performing market..." I would like to view what ever links you could provide that are supportive of that statement.
    Sep 3, 2015. 12:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy The Fear Now: Powerful Year-End Rally To 2250 On The S&P 500 [View article]
    Mr Duval, I have a question for you. What is your opinion concerning overall corporate profits 6 months to a year from today? Will they be higher or lower and to what degree (your best guess)? What about over the next couple of years? Will profits be trending higher or lower? Thanks in advance for your input.
    Sep 3, 2015. 11:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Danger Of Buying The Next Dip [View article]
    Eric, we agree on the Central bank stimulus issue although I think they may have given up on trying to support the markets, at least for now. It's sink or swim time. That said, a sudden and dramatic crash would almost certainly bring them back into play. The recent sell off was not a crash no matter how many times it has been described as such by pundits who attempt to sensationalize every pullback. It is quite possible that the bear market may turn out to be prolonged stealth deterioration rather than an sudden crash. Those are the type that inflict maximum pain for investors. Given that I am net short, I would prefer a crash, of course.

    Keep up with the articles as I always find your analysis to be thoughtful and interesting.
    Sep 2, 2015. 05:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Danger Of Buying The Next Dip [View article]
    Eric, this "ongoing and relentless bull market"that you are talking about has not made a new high since mid-May. You have been writing bearish articles all year long but still refer to the current state of the market as being part of an ongoing bull market? That doesn't make sense. I would think that you would be calling this a stage one bear market.
    Sep 2, 2015. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Divergence In Precious Metals [View article]
    To quote: "The question becomes, is gold strong or is it too expensive?" That statement demonstrates how pointless it is to study ratios of one product to another. It is impossible to know which is over valued and it is also impossible to predict when a ratio will return to a long term average. An extreme ratio can exist for years! For example, a high gold to sliver ratio could mean that gold is going fall, or perhaps silver is going to rise, or they are both going to fall, or rise, but at different rates. The possibilities are almost endless.

    Charting ratios may produce interesting and 'fun' charts to play with but they do not prove that a true correlation exists between the pairs. As an example, coffee prices and gold have exhibited a positive correlation for years but no one believes there could be any real connection beyond it being coincidental. In my opinion, studying ratios is a waste of time.
    Sep 1, 2015. 11:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: It's Go Time [View article]
    I have some exposure to NG but have been holding off on buying more even though seasonal strength is a big factor as we enter into fall. I am thinking that we may get a sharp sell of to the $2.30 -$2.40 level before NG moves up to it's seasonal high.
    Aug 31, 2015. 03:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Still In A Bull Market [View article]
    Thanks for the link. Interesting reading. It would seem that GDP numbers are what ever the government wants them to be. A multitude of 'adjustments' are now applied to any number that isn't sufficiently positive. It is exactly this kind of deception that contributes to the public's rising dis-trust of government.
    Aug 31, 2015. 03:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bears Are Confident U.S. Equities Will Now Downtrend -- But Are They Hogs Waiting To Get Slaughtered? [View article]
    Corporate profits are on the decline and the stock market absolutely hates that state of affairs, particularly when the economy is supposed to be hunky-dory as evidenced by yummy GDP and unemployment numbers. I believe we are witnessing a sucker rally. I think I will hang on to my short positions and even add to them as the market rebounds and many weak shorts run to cover.
    Aug 31, 2015. 11:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Still In A Bull Market [View article]
    The author had actually made a pretty good bear case but inexplicably decides to put a bullish spin on the facts. That 'wonderful' 3.7% GDP number, coupled with an equally wonderful very low unemployment rate of 5.3% doesn't seem to be on the FED's radar who have now 'suddenly' become fixated on the stock market gyrations. What the hell happened to "data dependent"? Who really believes the 3.7% GDP revision to be the real deal? Not even the FED does, otherwise, there would be no waffling about raising interest rates. Obviously, they can smell horse shit like everyone else.

    I hate to nit-pick but how does the author calculate this month's drop was 14%? From it's intraday top of 2134.71 of May 20 to the intraday bottom of 1867.08 of August 25, my calculator comes up with a 12.54% drop. Am I missing something?
    Aug 31, 2015. 10:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • History Says Stocks Are Going Lower [View article]
    Many are describing Monday's sell off of just 5.3%, as a 'crash' even though at it's very (brief) bottom, the S&P was only 11% off it's all time high. An 11% overall decline used to called a 'correction' but it would seem that in this era of central bank interventions, anything over 5% is to be milked for all it's worth as being some sort of dramatic event. I was involved in the markets during the 1987 crash (a 23% drop) and it was a numbing experience. Those who were short S&P futures could not get out anywhere near their 'protective' stops (that became market orders). Brokers lost their jobs because over leveraged clients couldn't meet the margin calls. Lawsuits and bankruptcies ensued.

    I guess it's all about perspective. Many who are in the markets today have never experienced a real crash. I believe it's just a matter of time before they do.
    Aug 30, 2015. 11:23 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Did Crude Surge More Than 10%, And Why Is It Continuing To Move? [View article]
    An attack on Saudi oilfields would give crude a boost.
    Aug 29, 2015. 03:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed's Incredible Stock-Market Levitation Of Recent Years Is Failing [View article]
    The author has made several valid points in this well written article. Indeed, the rally off the most recent low was one of the strangest I have ever witnessed. There was no lengthy see-saw tug of war between the bulls and bears as would normally be expected when emotional human beings are making quick decisions. The selling stopped rather abruptly as if computers were being reigned in. Then in unison, they were again unleashed with only one strategy: BUY!

    The lift off was controlled and very broad based, as if that 'someone' decided that it was time to put an end to the carnage before any real panic could take hold . Almost all sectors moved up simultaneously! Yes, I am only speculating but the best word I can think of to describe the event is: Contrived
    Aug 28, 2015. 10:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stealth Bear Market That Could Take Markets By Surprise [View article]
    The 2nd quarter GDP revision came in at an incredible 3.7% and the official unemployment rate is only 5.3%. Wow, just awesome! So why is the FED so reluctant to raise the interest rate by a measly 0.25%? It should be obvious. The FED knows the numbers are pure horse shit! There can no other explanation. The Obama administration is feeding lies to the public in a desperate attempt to keep the lid on a simmering pot of discontent and seems to have the full cooperation of the media which is now, for the most part, conveniently owned by America's billionaires.

    I think that a bear market may have already begun.
    Aug 28, 2015. 10:01 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Ready For The Second Round Of The Market Downturn [View article]
    William, like you, I have made calls that were dead wrong and which have cost me dearly. I was bearish on gold between 2011 and 2013 and made money during the slide. I turned bullish on gold in 2014, lost money and would have lost even more if I had remained bullish. Except for a few junior miners that I have held for some time, I am done 'playing' with the gold sector. I have no clue where it's headed. However, I do see greener pastures else where for my capital.

    I am quite bearish on the stock market and believe that the recent sell off (a minor 11% correction) has been a warning of what is to come. The market will either continue to rocket upward to new highs and then rapidly collapse or it will move up and down with extreme volatility for a few weeks to a month and then collapse. I do not see a sustainable bull market in the cards and as such, I have put a large chunk of my money into inverse ETFs.
    Aug 28, 2015. 09:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment