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eagle1003

eagle1003
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  • Near A Market Top? Then Buybacks Aren't So Smart [View article]
    The share buy backs are just another symptom of a sickness that has infected America to it's core. Instead of using the billions of dollars of buyback money to expand business, build factories and give people jobs, the money is turned over to those who own the stocks and that is most definitely NOT those who comprise the beaten down middle class.
    Dec 14, 2013. 12:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Listen To The Goldfields CEO - Buy Your Gold Before Prices Jump [View article]
    Hebba Investments has been riding this bear market in gold down and isn't about to quit now. Consistent, if nothing else.

    Accumulating gold for the long term is not a bad strategy any more than accumulating, for the long term, crude oil, copper, wheat or even peanut butter. Pretty much everything is in a long term bull market and if one lives long enough, all commodities will have a pay off. That said, bear markets rarely end when the majority expect them to and make no mistake about it, gold is in a vicious bear market and a return to new highs could be a long way off.

    For the record, I recently became bullish on the miners but it seems that so has everyone else so that isn't a great sign. In the event of a rally, I will be taking profits early rather than later, that is, if there are any profits.
    Dec 13, 2013. 12:56 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Taper: Good Or Bad For Gold? [View article]
    The author presents a very logical argument for lower gold prices. Unfortunately, logic and reasoning don't work so well in the markets any more.
    Dec 13, 2013. 12:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Unemployment Claims Becoming Volatile [View article]
    The number of people who are out of work should be the only statistic the FED should be concerned with and not with just those who are eligible to file for unemployment insurance. What a farce.
    Dec 12, 2013. 10:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Public Is Not In The Stock Market [View article]
    Too many would be investors are of the opinion that the stock market is manipulated by quasi-criminal organizations that include the traditional and investment banks. The perception is that these giant financial empires have the blessing and protection of those in the upper echelons of government. Many influential government advisers and appointees are former executives of the big banks and that doesn't sit well with a suspicious public. Even when bank wrong doing is exposed, nothing happens other then to have a 'deal' agreed upon, a fine is paid and then it's back to the business of fleecing the public at every possible opportunity. Nobody goes to jail other than the occasional unknown fall guy. The CEO's and executives appear to have immunity from ever being held accountable for their actions. This on going farce seriously damages the public's perception of the role the Banks play in the markets and accordingly, they avoid the markets that have every appearance of being 'rigged'.

    The nearly unlimited resources available to the big banks allow them to push markets in any direction they wish. Money is no object. Illegal short selling is no longer considered improper and is done on a regular basis with the regulatory bodies seemingly unwilling to do the job of regulating. It is now common knowledge that the FED is manipulating the markets with QE and how can you win against those guys? ( whether or not the FED is really intervening directly in the markets is not the issue..it's the perception that matters.)

    Then there is the high frequency trading computers whose sole purpose is to skim money from the honest investors. They should be banned, not encouraged by the exchanges since their very existence is undermining the confidence people feel about trading on a level playing field with other investors. You can't beat a high speed trading computer.

    Fundamentals don't mean a thing any more except when they can be used to lure a gullible public into buying when they should be selling. It's no wonder people would rather keep their money in the bank, safe from the vultures even if it means getting less than a 1% return. If they are really smart, they will keep it there or better yet, stuff it into a mattress!
    Dec 12, 2013. 10:12 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Jump The Gun On Natural Gas [View article]
    Steve, I don't see how you figure the 10% down is not making use of leverage when playing futures nor are you "free" to use the other 90% to buy something else. What happens in the event that NG makes a sudden reversal and drops like a stone and the margin calls come on a dollar for dollar basis once past the margin limits? Then you are in big trouble unless you have deep pockets. While that scenario is unlikely, that is not the point. If you play futures long enough, it's just a matter of time before that exact situation happens, whether it's in NG or pork bellies. I have seen far out contracts lose 50% in a matter of days. You think stops will save you? Think again. The trading houses love stops and will routinely take them out just before a big move in the opposite direction. You have to live and breathe commodity quotes all day long or you get killed. You don't even sleep well because of after or pre-market trading that can result in massive moves.

    I played futures for years and know the pitfalls for a newbie. It is a very crooked game. The commodity ETF's are safer in that at least your loss is limited to what you have in.. I am not saying they are great but I have done far better than I ever did with futures and sleep well at night.
    Dec 12, 2013. 02:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Jump The Gun On Natural Gas [View article]
    Gumby, have you considered running for congress?
    Dec 12, 2013. 02:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bulls Are Raging, Can The Bears Make A Comeback? [View article]
    The manufacturing base in the U.S. has been decimated by years of out sourcing and the result has been that millions of under educated citizens are waiting month to month for welfare and food stamps to survive. Millions more who are somewhat educated are getting by on poor paying jobs in service industries. Baby boomers, thanks to poor returns on their savings, are terrified that their pensions are not going to sustain them so they are cutting expenditures to the bone. It looks bleak. Contrast this sorry state of affairs to actions of a stock market that has been on fire as if the economy was experiencing one of the greatest booms in history. It is clear that something doesn't add up.

    At some point the banks, who have been the driving force behind the bull market using FED funny money to push up select sectors of the market, are going to want to unload the stocks they have been accumulating throughout the past few years. The question is, who are they going to sell it to? The broke middle class? The retiring baby boomers? The rich who know better than to get sucked in? Not likely to all the above.

    It's going to be tough convincing a new crowd of suckers with plenty of cash to lose that all is well in the economy and that it's time to get into the market. There just isn't enough investors left with gobs of money to get the job of stock distribution done quickly. The low daily volumes are indicative of muted public participation so a prolonged topping process is the most likely outcome. There may or may not be a rotation into the beaten down commodity sectors. I say may not because without true economic growth, commodity demand may never materialize in a big way.

    One must consider the possibility that one or more of the bankers will become nervous about their exposure to the markets and will make a sudden bolt for the exits. Such a breakdown in discipline could very quickly degrade into a true market crash. I am not predicting that outcome and it probably won't happen so long as the FED continues to feed them free money but I don't believe the bankers can be trusted not to throw the country into chaos. Their track record leaves a lot to be desired. One way or the other, eventually the markets will be embroiled in the next inevitable bear phase.
    Dec 12, 2013. 12:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Gold Market Manipulated? Part 2: From De-Pegging To De-Monetization [View article]
    Very good article in that it makes a compelling case for official government manipulation of gold in the past. I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that the government and large banks are doing the same today.

    The emergence of the gold ETFs has made it much easier for interested parties to control the price of gold. Demand that could be putting pressure of gold supplies is diverted into the ETFs that are backed by gold that is in turn, leant out to ETF sponsors by the banks at multiples of their gold stocks. Naked short selling of GLD has been used as a tool to force the price down when it has been in someone's interest to due so. It is interesting how the govt. regulatory bodies don't seem care about the illegal practice of naked short selling.

    It's an incredible scheme that works until enough of the gold that is being leant out is sold to other parties who are not interested in playing the game and demand delivery. I don't know if we are at that point yet but I am buying the miners as a good bet for some upside in the near future.
    Dec 11, 2013. 01:22 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities Today: Disregarding The Iranian Rumors And Closing The Gold Short [View article]
    Covering shorts on gold equities is an excellent idea if one hasn't done that already. Personally, I have been buying a few of the beaten down miners that show promise for profit.
    I have sold almost all my NG long etf positions today although shorting NG is probably a very bad idea.
    Dec 11, 2013. 12:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • UBS: Chinese gold demand to taper in 2014 [View news story]
    Given that the tremendous Chinese demand for gold that we have been hearing about didn't do a thing for the price, maybe lower demand will do the opposite. Just a thought.
    Dec 10, 2013. 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tightening In U.S. And China: Double Trouble [View article]
    The market is due for a significant correction and it will be blamed on tapering and the threat of rising interest rates. It is however, doubtful that elimination of QE will trigger a bear market nor will the first few hikes in interest rates. The bull market will resume, frustrating the bears to no end.

    The public is finally getting into the market and the banks are going to need considerable time to unload all the stock they have accumulated with QE money. We could see an extended topping formation that could take up to a year to complete. Of course, the media will have convinced the public that all is well and the economy is healthy and able to expand without further intervention from the FED. Then we move on to what may be the worst bear market in history. Just my opinion.
    Dec 10, 2013. 12:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When To Cash In On OPEC's Endgame [View article]
    I agree with the author's premise that oil prices will eventually rise once again but believe that will happen sooner than later. Right now the general consensus is that the world is awash in oil and therefore oil prices are likely to remain stable or even decline. That view is almost certainly wrong and is a result of the public's focus on the near term rather than the big picture. Six months to a year from now, the talk will be about how high oil is going to go. A rapidly expansion of the world's economies will be the driver of oil prices.
    Dec 10, 2013. 12:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Jump The Gun On Natural Gas [View article]
    Dave, you are correct. Backwardation in NG is unusual and will be short lived.
    Dec 10, 2013. 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Jump The Gun On Natural Gas [View article]
    Steve, good point on the 2018 contract. However, most investors do not play futures nor would I ever recommend that they do. Buying on leverage always comes back to bite ones ass so unless an investor is well financed to deal with the inevitable margin calls that occur when the commodity is going against a position, I would advise everyone to stay away from futures. I play them but have years of experience and no problems with financing.

    ETF's are a far safer way to play a commodity but do suffer from severe contango decay just as the near month futures do, so that must be taken into account. The ETF (UNL) is somewhat better in that regard than UNG
    Dec 10, 2013. 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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