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eagle1003

eagle1003
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  • Gold's Flash Crash: Fat Finger Or Panicked Shorts? [View article]
    When gold was crashing back in April, what did a $30 fast drop mean then? The most obvious explanation to the so called '"flash crash" may be that someone was using gold's strength to dump some unwanted gold. Although the market did recover, it has lost it's momentum. It would not surprise me to see gold make another run at breaking the June lows. Now that I am long the miners, I would prefer gold to move up from here but catching a falling knife is never easy.
    Jan 7, 2014. 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cold January Setting Up Potential Natural Gas Storage Crisis [View article]
    The real party might not get into full swing until March-April when stocks are low and prices become very sensitive to unseasonable cold weather. Pure guess work at this point.
    Jan 7, 2014. 12:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cold January Setting Up Potential Natural Gas Storage Crisis [View article]
    I am praying we will see $4 to $4.10 so I can load up for the run to $5+. I put on a moderate long position at $4.26 just in case it doesn't pull back again.
    Jan 6, 2014. 10:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly COMEX Gold Inventories: A Year In Review And Looking Forward [View article]
    Where we disagree is on the timing of when it's time to buy. I did not buy into your persistent theme through out 2013 that gold was poised to take off. You rode that theme all the way down as gold crashed

    I have been accumulating select well capitalized gold miners since early December and could cash out now with a nice profit but I believe a strong rally is in the cards and will take profits when the analysts and their goldbug followers are most enthusiastic.

    I don't know where gold will be five or ten years from now but can say with certainty that anyone who thinks that today's known 'fundamentals' are going to drive gold up five years from now doesn't know a thing about how markets work. I lived through the excitement of gold's spectacular rise and fall during the eighties and heard plenty about gold's great fundamentals that ultimately proved to be completely meaningless as gold languished for nearly two decades. Today's knowledge is pretty much useless when it comes to predicting where any commodity will be priced in the future.
    Jan 6, 2014. 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly COMEX Gold Inventories: A Year In Review And Looking Forward [View article]
    Hebba: Right now I am bullish on gold and it's miners so I am hoping we will be on the same page for at least some of 2014. That said, I don't marry any position and will be content with modest profits. The buy and hold-it til-u-die strategy favoured by goldbugs isn't my style.
    Jan 6, 2014. 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly COMEX Gold Inventories: A Year In Review And Looking Forward [View article]
    Way back on Feb 18 Hebba correctly noted that the COT report showed a massive increase in the short position on Gold by the managed managers group and then incorrectly interpreted that information as being extremely bullish for gold by stating "but based on the COTS report, this is the time investors and traders should be loading up on gold. " Gold was around $1650 at the time of the report.
    On March 12, Hebba regurgitated much the same same theme, noting that MM had increased it's short position and then proceeded to present a case for that a huge short covering rally could be expected. Gold was at 1579 at the time and we all know what happened after that.

    Hebba abandoned it's failed efforts to interpret the COT reports and instead began it's first focus on the COMEX inventory levels with an article on May 3 with the sensationalist title " COMEX Gold Default, Here's What Not to Watch", in which they drew focus to inventory reports and then very slyly contradicted the title of the article buy saying "This does not mean there will not be a default in the gold or silver markets - there definitely could be." That's all a goldbug needed to see and the stage was set for multiple articles (twenty six thus far) on the declining COMEX inventories with many subtle and not so subtle suggestions that the COMEX was in danger of a default and the low inventories must mean something big was about to happen with gold prices. The number of "claims" per ounce is their latest focus and it did not produce the December delivery squeeze they had been suggesting as a possibility.
    I have maintained from the beginning that the COMEX inventories provide us with nothing valuable in determining the future price of gold. It is primarily a warehouse and a rapidly declining influence on the world market.

    I have to wonder how may people have lost a ton of money thinking that so called experts know what they are talking about. All one has to do is look back on the archived articles to see how credible some 'experts" really are and then decide whether their prediction for the future should be given credibility.
    Jan 5, 2014. 12:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interventionism And The Decay Of The Market Order [View article]
    This a superbly well thought out and written article! My hat goes of to the author.

    It is interesting how the large banks are dealing with regulations by simply ignoring them and paying fines that have become nothing more than the cost of doing business in the U.S. One can only conclude that the C.E.O.s and other executives of the likes of Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan have been granted some sort of secret deal that protects them from personal prosecution.
    Jan 5, 2014. 10:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Eric Parnell Positions For 2014: The Payoff In Precious Metals Has Enormous Potential [View article]
    Ninja: Did you even bother to read the whole article? It's not about market volatility and Mr Parnell is not saying the market will first go to 2400 and then fall to 1200. He is advising caution for those trading the capital markets and while he thinks it may a good year for PM's he is once again advising caution about diving in too soon.
    You don't make money in the markets by being "cautious". That's exactly what the dumb money does when they finally make the decision to jump into the markets at tops. I have been buying into the gold miners since early December and getting out of over bought equities as quickly as is prudent. While I don't see a sudden crash in the cards, and ugly decline is looming.
    Jan 4, 2014. 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eric Parnell Positions For 2014: The Payoff In Precious Metals Has Enormous Potential [View article]
    Eric,you write great articles but I think I will refrain from joining in with the back slapping group that must have very short memories. You spent most of 2013 stating that you were in mostly cash and writing bearish articles of caution concerning the stock market while being bullish on gold just before it crashed and burned. You also got burned by being bullish on bonds and made a dead wrong call on utilities. You used to be one of my favourite authors but frankly, your published record for 2013 is rather dismal. I hope 2014 is a better year for you.

    BTW, I love your statement saying that market could "eclipse 2400" or could just as easily "crashes below 1200 in the coming year." Priceless!
    Jan 4, 2014. 12:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investors Should Be Wary Of 2014 [View article]
    I thought this article was a good one. His message is clear.
    Jan 4, 2014. 12:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Lift Off Time For Commodity Prices? [View article]
    I agree with apts4u. The author is making the point that equities that have had their run will lag or even decline while commodities breakout to the upside. This is a normal pattern, however, I am wary due to the fact that much of the world is not enjoying the strong growth needed to put pressure on raw materials. Without real demand as a driver, commodity price increases may not be robust as some are hoping for. That being said, I am currently long only commodity based stocks but will be satisfied with modest profits.
    Jan 4, 2014. 12:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • So Far So Good For The Bulls [View article]
    Yet another author who has adopted a bullish outlook. How things have changed since last year at this time when SA was littered with bearish warnings. Now, it seems authors have fallen in love with the current overpriced and overbought market as if the party is just beginning!

    Cam Hui's Dec 31, 2012 article was titled "Time To Avoid U.S. Equities". Impeccable timing! Then there was the Jan 7 2013 article " Headwinds For A Bull Case" Perhaps he meant Tailwinds? Let's move on to the Jan.26 2013 article, just after the S&P was breaking out titled " Why My Inner Investor Is Worried" Is that the same Inner Investor that thinks the bull market is now intact?

    The title of this article is what worries my 'Inner Investor'.
    Jan 4, 2014. 12:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Will Remain Gold's Strongest Supporter For Years [View article]
    Sorry George, you missed out on the single most important reason why gold crashed in 2013 : a dramatic drop in imports by the biggest gold consumer in the world, India. A gold friendly government change in that country would send gold soaring. Your made America reasons why gold is down are barely relevant when the bigger picture is considered.
    Jan 2, 2014. 12:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investor Expectations Also Need Tapering As We Enter 2014 [View article]
    Great Swami: In my opinion, the correction of 2011 signalled the end of a short bull market and when the correction ended, the start of a new bull market which is now 26 months old. The performance of the various cyclic sectors is supportive of that view. We should see a significant improvement in the energy and metals sectors during the next several months with the financial and tech stocks trending sideways to down.
    Dec 29, 2013. 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smaller Inventory Withdrawal Still Bullish For Natural Gas As Price Rally Pauses [View article]
    Dannyboy: A large draw down was expected and there were too many investors on the long side of the trade. I am looking for a much bigger correction followed by a lot of choppiness and then another push that should take us to the $5 + mark. It could be a dragged out affair unless we see exceptionally cold temperatures in the Northeast in which case anything is possible. I am out of the long side for now.
    Dec 28, 2013. 10:54 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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