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  • Are Investors Starting To Shift To A Defensive Posture? [View article]
    The declining trading volumes of the market as it continues it's relentless ascent can only mean one thing: the public is not interested in the market and there is definitely no rush to get in. Those who drove the markets in the past, now baby boomers, could care less about reasonable PE ratios and nothing will entice them to invest their retirement money into a market that is now widely perceived to be a casino that is driven by the unfettered greed of big money, algos, and corrupt investment banks. Government regulations have been gutted and regulators are nothing more than pests who occasionally levy fines that have become part of the cost of doing business.

    When the big boys come to the realization that the public is not coming back in big numbers for yet another fleecing and that they only have one another to prey upon in the stock market game of musical chairs, things will almost certainly get very ugly.
    Mar 8, 2014. 12:08 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Excess Reserves: The Elephant In The Room The Fed Doesn't Want To Talk About [View article]
    Should we believe that the trillions of money that the FED has pumped into banking reserves have been sitting idle, accomplishing nothing in terms of inflating asset values (stocks)? If that were the case, then the entire QE exercise was nothing more than a show put on by the FED as well as the BOJ and other central banks. Are the FED members complete fools? That is doubtful.

    Far more believable is that the banks had the means that allowed them to monetize the excess reserves via massive stock market purchases. U.S banks as well as central banks wordwide have been buying up stocks in a big way since bond yields collapsed years back. Here is a good news story that describes what has been happening:

    Pension funds have been direct beneficiaries of higher stock valuations and so have the millions of their client retirees who were facing dramatic cuts in pension payments after the 08 crash. Indirectly, the QE exercise has benefited the working class retirees who were facing disaster thanks to grossly underfunded pension plans. QE has been far more than a get rich scheme exclusively for the wealthy.

    The big unknown now is how will the FED drain excess reserves and how will the banks view their stock holdings once interest rates begin to rise beyond the point where returns on bonds once again exceed the returns of the stock market.
    Mar 8, 2014. 10:21 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It Is Different - Americans Are More Pessimistic [View article]
    In my opinion, Atwater's conclusions make far more sense than the those of this author. The baby boomers are no longer interested in gambling with their retirement funds and want out, not into the markets. The next generation of investors are broke from having to raise their expensive offspring and won't have the excess cash to put into the markets for several years, if ever. Educating the brats will keep most of them underwater until they are wore out from working. (Isn't the 'Cash for an Education' a wonderful business model? Let's keep everyone in debt till they die. Some of those silly Europeans still provide free secondary education.)

    So who does that leave to keep pumping the markets? The banks, of course! It is the banks armed with QE money that has driven stocks to their current lofty levels and it would be a stretch to believe that they are going to continue to drive up the market indefinitely while waiting for the next generation of suckers to step up to the plate. At some point the dam is going to burst and we will be into a relentless bear market.

    Yes, the market could conceivably rise for some time yet but it would be wise to be very careful and not get too enthused about betting the farm on this casino. The time for that was two, three, four and five years ago, not now.
    Mar 7, 2014. 07:42 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Tries To Form A Bottom [View article]
    After closer chart study, I had to lower my target numbers. Sorry for any confusion.
    Mar 6, 2014. 06:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia Forex Selling Highlights Monetary Policy Risk To Gold [View article]
    Robert may be correct. Gold bought by the central banks can not be counted upon to be gold that will never again be put up for sale. That just isn't how it works. They don't see it as a profit/loss situation as an investor does.

    I don't have a clue where gold is going to be six months from now but it's looking toppy and may sell off hard in the near future. As of today, I have completely sold out of all gold related positions. The easy money has been made on the oversold gold stocks, very few of which are showing clear signs of a lasting reversal.
    Mar 6, 2014. 06:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Tries To Form A Bottom [View article]
    I can't get enthused about getting long until we see sub $4.20 numbers. Below 3.90 would be a 'back up the truck' event.
    Mar 6, 2014. 06:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Tries To Form A Bottom [View article]
    I am looking for sub $4.40 before getting long. $4.00 be a 'back up the truck 'event.
    Mar 6, 2014. 06:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 - The Bull Market Is Only 1 Year Old [View article]
    The author's premise that the current bull market is only one year old, based on a line drawn from previous peaks is certainly a novel idea but is not supported by historical data.

    If the correction of 2011 is considered to have been the bottom of a short bear market, then the current bull market is roughly 30 months old. The sector rotation models are supportive of that premise with the financials having led the way. Yes, health care was also very strong but that situation has been an anomaly caused by the bulge of baby boomers who are entering their senior years, accompanied by exploding health care issues. Profits in health care are going to a strong driver of stocks in that sector.

    Expect to see less strength in the financial sector and increasing strength in oil and gas as well as materials sectors. The health care sectors will almost certainly remain strong well into the first leg on the next bear market.
    Mar 2, 2014. 10:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Dollar: Will It Increase Until Midyear? [View article]
    Meant to say " DX weekly and monthly charts look even more bearish..."
    Mar 1, 2014. 09:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Dollar: Will It Increase Until Midyear? [View article]
    Gam: Agreed, daily charts are useless but the DX weekly and money charts look even more bearish than the daily chart. The yen looks like a buy and ready to explode upwards.
    Mar 1, 2014. 06:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Rally Continues On Ukrainian Uncertainty [View article]
    Gold's rally during the on-going crisis in Ukraine is rather tepid if not non existent. The U.S. dollar is not reacting in a positive way either. I am rapidly losing my short lived enthusiasm for gold and have liquidated all mining stocks at nice profits. In my opinion, shorting the stock market has much better potential for profits.
    Mar 1, 2014. 12:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Dollar: Will It Increase Until Midyear? [View article]
    Last time I checked, the dollar was in decline mode and not providing any technical' reason to expect that it is headed higher.
    Mar 1, 2014. 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Futures Are Cheap, Buy On Dips Below This Level [View article]
    How much NG is in the ground doesn't mean a thing if producers are not willing to drill for it at unprofitable prices. Even with high levels of production, there is no guarantee that prices will remain low. Look at the price of American produced oil as an example of how price can go up in spite of a supply glut. The big producers are no different than the oil cartel and they want higher prices and they will get them.
    NG is going up over the next 12 months and any sell offs should be bought aggressively. There will always be some kind of 'excuse' for the price to go up despite ample supply in the ground.
    Feb 24, 2014. 05:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bear Market In Gold And Silver Miners Is Most Likely Over [View article]
    Prefan4200 has got it exactly correct. Not every buyer or seller meets their objective when there are others who they are competing with. I have seen homes receive over 50 bids from interested buyers. Of course, ultimately, there is only one sale but at the maximum price bid. The same principle applies to stocks and commodities.
    Feb 20, 2014. 01:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bear Market In Gold And Silver Miners Is Most Likely Over [View article]
    BiGBearShort: Very clever of you to point that out. You must make a ton of cash with that earth shaking insight.
    Feb 20, 2014. 11:21 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment