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  • Stock Buyback Follow Up - Lessons From 2007  [View article]
    Bybacks are a gift to large shareholders who are able to unload their shares without crashing the price. The company borrows money at low rates and it would seem everyone is happy, at least for a while. Buybacks at market peaks are no accident and are the most insidious. It is those that do not tender their shares that are the most likely to suffer when the buybacks are completed and the stock drifts downward. Buybacks at market bottoms are almost non-existent.

    Buybacks are most likely to become more common given that the smaller retail investor is not coming back to the market in the great numbers that would allow stock distribution by the smart money to the dumb money.
    Mar 30, 2014. 04:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With The Reserve Bank Allowing Imports, Is India Going Back To Its G(Old) Ways?  [View article]
    This author has zeroed in on something that is very important for gold prices. Having India's gold imports drop, suddenly, by nearly 75% per month was a big reason why gold tanked in 2013. In response, panicked Western investors abandoned their holdings in gold ETFs in what could only be described as a stampede for the exits. It was a domino effect that crushed gold prices, which, in all probability, was made worse by massive short sales of gold futures.

    While the Indians are not completely removing the restrictions on gold imports, allowing imports to increase to 40 tonnes (if that occurs), can only be a positive for gold. Now all that is needed is to stir up a fear sentiment in western investors who would then pile back into the paper gold market. Another whopper financial crisis would almost certainly get gold back into a bull market.
    Mar 29, 2014. 12:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rates Up, Fear Down: Washington Crossing Advisors Say 'Stay Away From Gold'  [View article]
    Alcamo: As I said, I was making an observation about certain gold investors who invest in gold,with a passion, for completely opposing reasons (inflation/deflation). Surely you can comprehend that they can't both be right. What did I say and then do the opposite ? You are barely making sense. Given that Robert's article was not about the stock market, or any other market for that matter, why would I comment about what motivates investors in area other than gold?

    Robert always does a good job of explaining what really matters for gold but some individuals are just too thick headed to consider any possibilities other than their 'faith' that gold 'must' go up. Stubbornness and refusal to adapt to changing conditions are not a very good attributes for one who wishes to be a successful trader.

    I am neither a perma bear nor bull and will not hesitate to go long gold and it's miners when conditions warrant such a move. My previous posts will reveal that I got heavily into the gold juniors in late November and early December and cashed out when gold was at 1375 or there abouts. Needless to say, the profits were knee-buckling. I am a trader, not a hoarder, and could care less how shiny gold is.
    Mar 29, 2014. 12:20 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rates Up, Fear Down: Washington Crossing Advisors Say 'Stay Away From Gold'  [View article]
    Steve, you are correct in that the big lie has been that the FED was throwing money (printing) at the economy and that it would cause inflation thereby causing gold to rally. In fact, it was that very lie that carried gold much higher than physical demand warranted. It was really a false demand by scared investors, for paper gold (GLD and other ETFs).
    The FED has been injecting money into the reserves of the Banking System. Unfortunately, the money never actually hit the economy except in a very narrow way. The banks have utilized their reserves (by way of complex swaps) to push up stock prices. Incidentally, bank ownership of stocks is at an all time high. Bank loans made on those reserves could have ultimately found it's way into the economy and cause some degree of inflation but the banks have not been terribly cooperative in that in that regard and the demand for loans just isn't what it used to be.
    A stronger lending environment would almost certainly fan the flames of inflation but you can't force people to borrow money when they are wondering if they are going to have job next week.
    Mar 28, 2014. 11:10 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rates Up, Fear Down: Washington Crossing Advisors Say 'Stay Away From Gold'  [View article]
    Alcamo: What are you talking about? I was simply making an observation. People who love gold are buying it for various reasons but some will state that imminent inflation gives them reason to buy and others will say that they are buying because of coming deflation. I was not stating what I think is coming or if either is a reason to buy gold. The stock market is a whole different issue and was not the subject of my comment. I have to ask...do you know the meaning of the word hippocrit?
    Mar 28, 2014. 10:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rates Up, Fear Down: Washington Crossing Advisors Say 'Stay Away From Gold'  [View article]
    One gold enthusiast buys gold because he expects inflation, another buys gold because he sees deflation. I guess from the perspective of a gold hoarder, gold is to be bought no matter what.
    Mar 28, 2014. 11:27 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Endangered By Fresh Putin Aggression - Sell SPDR S&P 500  [View article]
    Gold is due for a bounce after selling off $100 and the developed markets remain overbought and vulnerable to further deterioration. What does this have to with Crimea? With or without Crimea tensions, the markets will do what they are going to do.
    Mar 28, 2014. 10:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Strongly Disagree With Goldman's Bearish Gold Call - Buy The GLD  [View article]
    Markos, I don't doubt the accuracy of your assessment of what's happening in the Ukraine. It's a bad situation. However, trying to predict where gold will be even month or even a week from now based on events in the Ukraine and trying to "make" gold behave in a manner that you think it should, is just folly.
    Mar 27, 2014. 09:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Strongly Disagree With Goldman's Bearish Gold Call - Buy The GLD  [View article]
    Rubenov: My finger is on the pulse of gold every minute of the trading day and I can say with complete certainty that any burp or fart by the FED has only a temporary effect on gold, sometimes lasting less than a full trading day before it reverses and goes in the other direction. Yes, there have been exceptions, notably in fall of 2012 when the FED announced QE3. Many investors had bought into the relentless message put forth by analysts that more money printing was going to cause inflation. Gold soared for several weeks and then proceeded to collapse very rapidly in one of the worst bear markets of gold's history. Obviously, that made in America event had no long term lasting positive effect but it did allow the time big money the time and opportunity to dump gold onto a gullible public.

    You see, the real problem was collapsing demand from India which in turn caused sentiment to turn negative amongst the large institutional investors that were holding huge positions in paper gold ETFs. They were desperate to get out at any price as was evidenced by the massive unloading of ETF units in short order.
    Mar 27, 2014. 09:38 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: The Declines Won't Stop Here  [View article]
    Kenfro: "Discovery of the iffy nature of the GLD could cause GLD to drop while the price of gold holds or goes up."
    Good point.
    Mar 27, 2014. 09:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart sues Visa for $5B over swipe fees  [View news story]
    Visa card charges are ultimately paid by the consumer. I wish all retailers would offer discounts to those that pay cash but that will never happen because credit cards allow customers to over spend without thinking.
    Mar 27, 2014. 08:42 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Strongly Disagree With Goldman's Bearish Gold Call - Buy The GLD  [View article]
    The author is completely focussed on world events and what is happening in the US and accordingly, is all over the map with his analysis because neither factors affect gold over the longer term. I am not American and like most non American investors, understand that it's a big world out there and the US investor isn't much more than a bit player in the bigger picture of the world's gold markets. That may hurt someone's feelings but that is how it is.

    The made in the USA reasons that some are convinced drives gold, (Fed balance sheet, US debt, tapering. inflation, blah, blah, blah) are only relevant to the degree in that they could affect the value of the dollar, thereby affecting those who buy gold with US dollars. Understand that there is no iron clad guarantee that if the dollar fell by 10% (a huge move), gold would automatically go up an equal amount. Doesn't work that way.

    World events (wars, financial crisis. etc) do create a temporary demand for gold (fear factor) However, that effect tends to dissipate rapidly and may be useful only to those who are very short term traders. Note gold's dramatic run up to $1390 only to quickly collapse to back under $1300 , despite the fact that we could very well be on the verge of another war.

    What does affect gold is demand for the physical and a sentiment factor for those who buy paper gold. The two biggest threats to gold are that India does not relax it's import controls substantively with the other being that China may reduce it's buying binge during 2014. Both events would be critical to gold given that those two markets comprise nearly half the world's total demand for physical gold.
    The selling from the gold ETFs appears to have finally stopped after a vicious sell off in 2013. But, is it realistic to assume that investor demand for paper gold is immediately going to zoom back up to it's glory days of 2011? Well, I concede that anything is possible. However, successful traders must consider all possibilities and then settle on the probable. Personally, I will strategically buy over sold situations and sell on rallies. I won't have to worry about being too old to remember where the gold has been buried in the back yard.
    Mar 27, 2014. 08:21 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: The Declines Won't Stop Here  [View article]
    Ken: I meant to say: I agree that investing in GLD is NOT the same as buying physical...
    Mar 27, 2014. 03:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese February Gold Imports Show Strong Chinese Demand: What Chinese Credit Crunch?  [View article]
    How are the Chinese able to buy such massive quantities of gold and yet not have any significant positive effect on gold prices? I am sure that someone could come up with some reason but let's consider what would happen to if they were to cut back on their purchases. Here's the formula and let's do the math:
    Chinese buy huge amounts of gold during 2013= price collapses.
    Chinese buy even more gold thus far in 2014= price rallies then falls back under $1300
    Chinese reduce purchases for remainder of 2014 (as is some expect to occur)= ???
    Mar 27, 2014. 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: The Declines Won't Stop Here  [View article]
    Ken: I agree that investing in GLD is the same as buying physical but there is no arguing the fact that correlation between GLD and gold is close to 100%. That may someday change but under what circumstances?
    Mar 27, 2014. 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment