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  • No One Has Had A Successful Model Of Gold? I Do! [View article]
    "US Treasury Real yields were the best drivers of gold." Hogwash. Yields do not 'set' gold prices. That is accomplished by supply and demand, as it is for all commodities. The correlation between Indian demand for jewelry and gold price is a much better fit. Incidentally, If you want to see an interesting correlation, look at the relationship between the price of coffee and gold. It is astounding although completely nonsensical.
    Nov 16, 2013. 12:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Iran Oil Outlook (Part 2): How Iran Stockpiles Oil And Hides The Fact [View article]
    I am not getting the logic of this article. Why would Iran pump oil out of it's natural reservoirs, go to the trouble of creating salt caverns and then pump the oil back into the ground? How does that make sense? The US stores it's strategic reserves in salt caverns because there was a time when it didn't have enough domestic oil to withstand a supply disruption. Iran has no such problem. It has plenty of easily accessible domestic oil.
    It also makes little sense for Iran to dump a couple of billion barrels of oil onto the market when sanctions are lifted. Why would they want to deliberately crash the market? How would that be in their best interests?

    It was interesting to read the process on how salt caverns are enlarged but I have to agree with Change is ....Constant This article is nothing more than pure conjecture with no reliable evidence to back it up.

    However, I will concede that anything is possible even when improbable. Perhaps you could produce a government publication that might validate your suspicion that IRAN has stockpiled billions of barrels ?
    Nov 16, 2013. 11:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: When Will The Gold Bugs Give In? [View article]
    It is interesting that the one author who has consistently called gold correctly is subject to ridicule while authors who write bullish articles get plenty of positive commentary. It's as if the 'crowd' can somehow force gold to go their way (up) if they agree that it should be so and attack those that tell it the way it is. An attitude of denial isn't going to 'make' gold do anything . Markets just don't work that way.

    By the way Doug, if the S&P had gone up for 12 straight years, would you be advocating that stocks would be a good place to put ones money? The very fact that gold did go up for 12 years is what is working against it now. Gold is in a long overdue bear market!

    All the other issues raised are very relevant to the fortunes of the American dollar to which gold is theoretically inversely correlated. I say theoretically because demand is the fundamental driver of gold and currency fluctuations do not create real lasting demand. That being said a severe currency collapse would certainly create some demand, especially if it were accompanied by hyper-inflation. That scenario is every goldbug's dream but it has the same dream they have had since the 1970s and it's will probably be the same 30 years from now.

    Despite what many want to believe, gold demand has been tanking since early summer, compared to 2012. The latest report from the World Gold Council for the 3rd quarter is pretty dismal. Demand is down 21% ( a whopping 232 fewer tonnes) from the same quarter of 2012. The first and second quarters were also down so what we are talking about here is not a one time anomaly, it's a trend!

    Everyone has heard about the heavy duty central bank purchases but the facts are that the central banks have bought 297 tonnes thus far in 2013 which is 96 tonnes LESS than 2012! Oops! That's an inconvenient truth the goldbugs don't want to discuss. Those who are making bullish noises are very good at ignoring the only thing that really matters and that is gold is now behaving like any other commodity that is subject to a decline in demand. The price goes down. No magic here folks. Anyone wishing to study the numbers can view them at the following link:
    I advise anyone looking the numbers to concentrate on the actual tonnages and not on percentages.
    Nov 16, 2013. 12:52 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold - What's Next From Central Banks? [View article]
    The latest statistics from the World Gold Council are not very encouraging for a goldbug. Over all demand was down a whopping 21% in the third quarter vs 2012 with the central bank buying down 17%. Maybe that is why gold is struggling? Here is the link for those who may want to study the statistics:
    Nov 15, 2013. 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dollar Is Losing Utility As World Reserves Shift - But What Of Gold's Role? [View article]
    Why are some people insisting there is a gold shortage when in fact there is not? Vendors running short on supply is old news from back in the spring when there was a temporary shortage from the mints due to a short lived and unexpected spike in demand. There is no problem getting gold now from the reputable dealers. If you are truly having a problem getting gold from your local dealer, try the Canadian mint and get all you want.

    I have no clue how low gold is going to go and neither does anyone else without a crystal ball, but I know what it has been doing for quite some time now despite the million and one reasons gold advocates have been yapping about as to why it should be going up. I believe in what gold has been doing, going down, and not what someone says should be happening. My only gold related holdings now are some very oversold junior mining stocks.
    Nov 13, 2013. 02:22 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Central Bank Gold Demand Is Not What It Seems [View article]
    Thanks for the clarification concerning the reported central bank gold reserves. Not all is as it seems is a good way to put it. The central banks are notorious for being on the wrong side of gold's trend, buying as the metal falls in price and selling as it is rising. Every new generation of gold buyers learn this lesson the hard way after buying into the hype that the central banks must 'know' something and higher gold prices and new all time highs are on the way.

    This movie is just a remake of the one that was made in the eighties and it didn't end well at that time for the clever investors who thought they were front running the banks and the imaginary multitudes that were going to drive up gold to imaginary heights.
    Nov 12, 2013. 08:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dollar Is Losing Utility As World Reserves Shift - But What Of Gold's Role? [View article]
    And gold continues to languish, working it's way down to test it's lows. Whose selling and why?
    Nov 12, 2013. 08:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • '3 Ps' Supporting Massive Market Speculation [View article]
    Very well presented article. It is time for extreme caution.
    Nov 9, 2013. 10:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Natural Gas Continue To Tumble? [View article]
    My experience with Fibonacci analysis is that it's works about 50% of the time but then, so will flipping a coin. Fib. analysts are usually very adept at hedging their calls so they can always say that they 'nailed' it no matter what the outcome. Another popular phrase of the Fib analyst is that the market might go against them "just one more time" before in turns their way. People read what they want to believe and that is just what the analysts give them.
    Nov 9, 2013. 01:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Demand For Physical Gold Will Send Prices Above $1,500 [View article]
    None of the American and European crisis side shows have prevented gold from crashing so what is the point of pretending that a gold rally is just around the corner every time the Americans or Europeans let loose with yet another political fart?
    The biggest consumers of gold that is produced in mines other than those in China, are the Indian people, period.

    The Indians are being successfully 'persuaded' by a very determined government to dramatically cut back on their gold purchases. The high premiums demanded by the local gold dealers to cover the increased costs incurred due to importing regulations and increased taxes coupled with a depressed rupee, is tempering the populations appetite for gold. No wonder gold can't seem to get a decent rally going.

    As I have pointed out before, the best hope for any one buying gold in American dollars is to see the dollar collapse against other major currencies and then only if the dollar goes down faster than worldwide demand for gold which is already sliding.
    Nov 9, 2013. 12:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Demand For Physical Gold Will Send Prices Above $1,500 [View article]
    There is no argument of the fact that China is a large consumer of gold. However, it is also true that much of China's demand is fulfilled from their own mines which are NOT permitted to export to the rest of the world. It's a closed market. India, on the other hand, imports almost all of it's consumption from external sources. It's not hard to figure out which country has a greater impact on world prices.
    Nov 9, 2013. 12:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Demand For Physical Gold Will Send Prices Above $1,500 [View article]
    Steve: Indian demand is the only macro element that we need to be concerned right now given that India alone accounted for nearly one quarter of all gold consumption in 2012. (the US was at less than 5%).

    You state that demand in India "remains somewhat strong even though the government has increased taxes and restricted shipments to deal with their account-deficit." I believe that you are understating the effect of the draconian regulations and taxes put in place by the Indian government. Imports of gold into India have been down sharply since July! Gold prices are reflecting that drop in demand by it's biggest consumer. Do you think the smart money saw this coming back in the spring and dumped their gold? Absolutely! The public always finds out the "why did it happen" when it is to late.

    Here is a Bloomberg article that puts the India issue in perspective:
    Nov 8, 2013. 01:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Market: Is Yahoo Fumbling The Ball? [View article]
    I like the quote streaming on the new yahoo web page but absolutely hate the new email format, as most who were quite comfortable with the old email webpage. Google finance is good also but for some reason the streaming quotes no longer update automatically.
    Nov 8, 2013. 01:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Natural Gas Continue To Tumble? [View article]
    Elgery : Technical analysis of commodities, with the exception of gold, does not work as it does with stocks because commodity prices are driven primarily by supply and demand and not by human sentiment as is the case for gold and stocks. I expect that we will see a lot of choppy action in NG for a few months unless we get an unusually cold winter. Playing the swings can be profitable with the expectation that prices will shoot much higher in late spring.
    Nov 6, 2013. 11:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is India Sitting On A Razor's Edge? [View article]
    Haha! Ok, you are right on that one.
    Nov 6, 2013. 11:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment