A Bullish Note From A Bear: A Brief Look At Post-QE Rallies [View article]
"anyone looking to ride the QE train can expect a 10-15% upside in the S&P 500 over the next six weeks." Interesting. Recently, a significant number of bearish authors have thrown in the towel recently and, at the very least, are acknowledging that the market will probably rally for some time. I believe that time is going to be a lot shorter than what this author has indicated. With confidence, I will continue to dump stock and wait for a much lower entry point to buy.
Market Thermometer Points To Further Gains [View article]
Are we on the cusp of a bear market collapse ? Not just yet, but a nasty correction is on the nearby horizon and that will be an opportunity to accumulate oil stocks. The popular dividend paying stocks that the public has been in love with should be avoided. They will become the property of the so-called 'dumb money'. A 5% dividend is no bonus when you are suffering 30% (or worse), capital losses.
Market Thermometer Points To Further Gains [View article]
Rich: I am in complete agreement with you regarding the S&P and the implications of the pricing disparity of the options. Accordingly, I have been aggressively unloading my stock holdings throughout the recent rally and in the beginning stages of shorting the markets and will short progressively more as the S&P rises. I think time will be on the bears side on this one. My studies indicate that the long term momentum of TLT has reversed to the downside so I am keeping my short bond positions and will short more on any rallies. I see sub 105 for TLT. It is interesting how individual investors can come to opposing conclusions. I am never right 100% of the time ( I was dead wrong on gold, at least, so far) but right often enough to make money in the markets. I suspect that is the case for you also.
The Real Natural Gas Production Curtailment [View article]
Mark has come to some some well thought out conclusions and deserves to be respected for all the work he puts into his analysis. It must take him hours to sift through the heaps of mundane statistics and present his findings. His repeated calls to buy coal stocks is proving to be profitable for those who listened and his advice to avoid Natural Gas stocks has also been beneficial. Many of them are struggling despite NG being up 50% from it's lows. Mark may sometimes interpret the technical stuff incorrectly but overall, he presents a pretty good picture of what is going on. Mark got burned with PCX. So what! Picking a dud happens to the best of us. I would recommend sticking with the coal etf, KOL, rather than any individual coal stock and risking a bankruptcy. Mark thinks like the professionals when he advocates to buy stocks of the unloved sectors, despite the incessant chatter of the nay-sayer amateur commentators. It's called, "buying low and selling high".
Today In Commodities: Black Swan In Store For Stocks [View article]
Jahu: Mr Bradbard was bearish and I was bullish (still am). On August 7, I stated :" I hope we see another sharp decline in NG this fall but only because it would be a great opportunity to load up on the long side for the ride up to $5." Putting my money where my mouth is, I have added to my long position at prices between 2.68 and 2.88. Thus far, no losses on this play. When Mr Bradbard clearly advises clients to get off the "sidelines" and jump into NG, then I will worry.
Today In Commodities: Black Swan In Store For Stocks [View article]
Dragonpaw: If Israel were to attack Iran, of course it would have a tremendous effect on oil prices, bonds and equities! I didn't say that it wouldn't. However, because it is expected by many, it would not be a "black swan" event. Undoubtedly, there are big bets being made on crude oil rising and there will be big winners and losers, depending on if and when such an attack takes place (or not). A black swan event is something that almost no one sees coming and because of it's unpredictability, cannot be profitably planned for. If a wayward asteroid were to hit the earth next week, would anyone be positioned, financially, just in case? I wouldn't be. Other than taking up residence in an underground bunker and spending all your cash on survival gear, you really can't profit from such an unforeseen event. I made the comment about a nuclear exchange between Israel and North Korea as an example of something no one would expect and would therefore fall into the "black swan" category. Did your "ears' catch that? You might want to open your eyes a little wider when reading.
Market Thermometer Points To Further Gains [View article]
In late June 21, in reference to the stock market you stated : "I can only take current levels as once again being a fantastic and perhaps the final short opportunity" On July 28, you finally turned bullish and are now claiming success for your buy signal because the market has advanced 8% since that call. O please! The current bull move started last October, not in July! I suspect that you are in just in time to get fleeced. On April 26, being bullish on bonds, you stated: "Today I have decided to position my portfolio into an even more bearish posture by selling off some defensive stock exposure and rotating that allocation into TLT". The call on TLT was made just in time to catch the top and selling any stock at that time was poor timing. (Did you buy back that stock in July?) As a professional trader I can tell you that I in the past week I have been furiously selling into the rally, stocks that I have accumulated from November until June. Sure, the market may appreciate another 5% or a little more, but the risks of remaining long are just to high and I want out with my substantial gains. I started shorting the bonds about the time you were getting bullish and will continue to short them until I see TLT under 110. Your market timing methodology appears to be a very good at generating contrary signals and accordingly, can be useful , so keep it up.
Santos: If the stocks of IBM or Walmart or Facebook, or whatever, sank to $1, what effect would that have on the day to day operations, profitability and balance sheets of those companies? I would suggest that it would have no effect at all! If that is the case, how can pumping up stock prices via money printing, cause the U.S. economy to improve? It would seem that other than a having a psychological effect on traders, actual stock values are irrelevant to GDP growth. What is your take on that argument?
Today In Commodities: Black Swan In Store For Stocks [View article]
As vireoman pointed out, a black swan event is unpredictable and unforeseen. For example, a war with Iran is not a black swan event because it is quite probable and expected by many. However, if that war lead to a nuclear exchange between Israel and North Korea, that would be completely unforeseen. Any prediction that a black swan event may occur is just a guess and not worthy of consideration.
Market Thermometer Points To Further Gains [View article]
Rich: I wouldn't touch TLT until it is well below the 105 level. It looks like we will see a brief rally of a few weeks and then a brutal decline will commence. The momentum has clearly shifted to the downside.
Paulo, this is one of your best articles and the arguments are sound. Bernake clearly doesn't understand what the ordinary Joe is thinking. Everyone can see that inflation is at least double or triple the reported rate and money printing is just going to make that worse. Paulo, there is no way of knowing where the stock market rally will end but isn't 40 billion a month a rather puny amount to keep the markets juiced?
S&P 500 Reaches 4-Year High, Due For A Correction [View article]
Ok, we have a number, 1475. I hope you are right because I have sold most of my stocks, as of today and going short the S&P. I will continue to short it in as it rises. Sorry, I don't have a talk show but if you hit it right, that will look good on your resume as an analyst.
Has the iPhone lost its "wow" factor, and if so, is it something for Apple (AAPL +1.2%) to be truly worried about? A day after the iPhone 5 launch, the press is alight with commentary declaring the device a good upgrade, but nothing more. Some think the effectiveness of the Apple rumor mill might be to blame. Either way, the big question is how much a lack of excitement will affect sales when Apple can still claim an edge in customer loyalty and apps, and can tout hardware features that often match or exceed those of rivals. [View news story]
The iphone fad is starting to get old and we all know what happens when a fad falls out of favor. If I had Apple stock, it would be my first priority to sell.
Fed Gets Aggressive: Willing To Risk Some Inflation [View article]
Envoy: Excellent comment. Although there is no telling where this rally is going to end, I am getting nervous and have been dumping stock I picked up last fall and early spring. The number of bullish commentators has been steadily rising and that is not a good sign.
A Bullish Note From A Bear: A Brief Look At Post-QE Rallies [View article]
Market Thermometer Points To Further Gains [View article]
Market Thermometer Points To Further Gains [View article]
My studies indicate that the long term momentum of TLT has reversed to the downside so I am keeping my short bond positions and will short more on any rallies. I see sub 105 for TLT.
It is interesting how individual investors can come to opposing conclusions. I am never right 100% of the time ( I was dead wrong on gold, at least, so far) but right often enough to make money in the markets. I suspect that is the case for you also.
The Real Natural Gas Production Curtailment [View article]
Mark may sometimes interpret the technical stuff incorrectly but overall, he presents a pretty good picture of what is going on.
Mark got burned with PCX. So what! Picking a dud happens to the best of us. I would recommend sticking with the coal etf, KOL, rather than any individual coal stock and risking a bankruptcy.
Mark thinks like the professionals when he advocates to buy stocks of the unloved sectors, despite the incessant chatter of the nay-sayer amateur commentators. It's called, "buying low and selling high".
Today In Commodities: Black Swan In Store For Stocks [View article]
Today In Commodities: Black Swan In Store For Stocks [View article]
A black swan event is something that almost no one sees coming and because of it's unpredictability, cannot be profitably planned for. If a wayward asteroid were to hit the earth next week, would anyone be positioned, financially, just in case? I wouldn't be. Other than taking up residence in an underground bunker and spending all your cash on survival gear, you really can't profit from such an unforeseen event. I made the comment about a nuclear exchange between Israel and North Korea as an example of something no one would expect and would therefore fall into the "black swan" category.
Did your "ears' catch that? You might want to open your eyes a little wider when reading.
Market Thermometer Points To Further Gains [View article]
On April 26, being bullish on bonds, you stated: "Today I have decided to position my portfolio into an even more bearish posture by selling off some defensive stock exposure and rotating that allocation into TLT". The call on TLT was made just in time to catch the top and selling any stock at that time was poor timing. (Did you buy back that stock in July?)
As a professional trader I can tell you that I in the past week I have been furiously selling into the rally, stocks that I have accumulated from November until June. Sure, the market may appreciate another 5% or a little more, but the risks of remaining long are just to high and I want out with my substantial gains.
I started shorting the bonds about the time you were getting bullish and will continue to short them until I see TLT under 110.
Your market timing methodology appears to be a very good at generating contrary signals and accordingly, can be useful , so keep it up.
There's No Longer A Bernanke Put [View article]
Today In Commodities: Black Swan In Store For Stocks [View article]
Today In Commodities: Black Swan In Store For Stocks [View article]
Market Thermometer Points To Further Gains [View article]
There's No Longer A Bernanke Put [View article]
Paulo, there is no way of knowing where the stock market rally will end but isn't 40 billion a month a rather puny amount to keep the markets juiced?
S&P 500 Reaches 4-Year High, Due For A Correction [View article]
Has the iPhone lost its "wow" factor, and if so, is it something for Apple (AAPL +1.2%) to be truly worried about? A day after the iPhone 5 launch, the press is alight with commentary declaring the device a good upgrade, but nothing more. Some think the effectiveness of the Apple rumor mill might be to blame. Either way, the big question is how much a lack of excitement will affect sales when Apple can still claim an edge in customer loyalty and apps, and can tout hardware features that often match or exceed those of rivals. [View news story]
Fed Gets Aggressive: Willing To Risk Some Inflation [View article]