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  • 3 Ominous Bear Market Signals [View article]
    Well presented arguments but the bearish title of this article is a little confusing. The author makes a good case for the bulls.
    Nov 22, 2013. 04:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Announces That It Is Going To Stop Stockpiling U.S. Dollars [View article]
    Americans cannot rely on their news services to inform them about what is happening in the world. Thanks to concentrated control of the media by the rich, American news is mostly of the sensationalist variety concerning the gaffes of various politicians for national news and the latest shooting for local news. The only way the average US citizen will know what China is doing is if the issue is somehow woven into one of the popular reality shows.
    Nov 22, 2013. 10:12 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold - How Many Times Can It Be Sold on the Same 'Taper' Rumor? [View article]
    To quote: "QE Inf." has done nothing for gold ever since it was instituted" EXACTLY. The tapering of QE will have a similar effect on gold, which is none at all except perhaps for some short term gyrations. The gold market is not dancing to any tune the US is playing no matter how badly some authors try to make a correlation. US investors have been suckered into believing that QE would lead to significant currency debasement and that it was inevitable that gold would soar. What a con job that has been as is evidenced by the fact that gold did just the opposite of what expected!

    Pay attention to what is happening in India and don't be fooled by analysts who quote year to date numbers which are meaningless. The most recent quarter has been ugly as far as demand goes from the world's biggest consumer of gold so it should be no surprise that gold is struggling and is unable to maintain a rally.
    I suspect that we are going to see much lower numbers for gold.
    Nov 21, 2013. 04:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: Are There Reasons To Be Nervous Right Now? [View article]
    Well put article. I have been a long term bull but expect that we will see a serious correction before the end of the year. That being said, there is evidence that the public is getting back into equities (positive mutual fund flows) and since selling stocks to the public at inflated prices is what the game is all about, the markets could march higher yet before turning down. Unlike many, I don't expect the correction to be the start of a bear market.
    Nov 20, 2013. 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: When Will The Gold Bugs Give In? [View article]
    Doug, I wasn't "twisting" anything. My point was that any commodity or stock market that has gone up for 12 straight years is not a sure bet to go up further. Now that gold has rolled over into a rather severe bear market, it is no longer a good bet for new highs in the near future. It may be decades before that happens. As a dealer of gold, you see gold as a form of money and to the extent that gold coins and bars are exchangeable for money by dealers such as yourself (at a big discount), gold can be considered a currency. However, as a trader, I see gold as nothing more than a commodity with gold coins and bars being only one of it's refined uses.

    Gold, since it's sentiment driven peak of Sept 2011, is now behaving very much like the commodity that it is, going down on declining demand. The fact that gold coin sales have been up during the early part of 2013 has done nothing little to counter balance the huge demand losses from India, whose government is successfully choking off consumer demand in that country.

    It is inevitable that at some point we will see a significant rally in gold and it will appear to be the real deal, with goldbugs joyfully declaring victory for their cause which is to have all fiat currencies backed by gold. That's not going to happen and gold will ultimately resume it's bear market.
    Nov 19, 2013. 10:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Consolidation Instead Of A Correction [View article]
    Cam, anytime you begin to sound even a little bit bullish, I have reason to be nervous about being long.
    Nov 18, 2013. 09:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Inactive Sun: Preliminary Look At Winter, Crude Oil/Natural Gas [View article]
    The unusual inactivity on our sun has got the attention of scientists who are falling all over themselves with predictions of how the lack of sun spot activity will affect the climate. I have no clue but am leaning towards the camp that believe we may see substantially colder winters. I think being long naturals gas is a good bet but it may not pay off until the March -May time period.
    Nov 16, 2013. 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: When Will The Gold Bugs Give In? [View article]
    Teller12: Very well put. Be prepared to second guess your decision somewhere down the road. No commodity ever goes straight down and there will be impressive rallies for gold over the next few years that will suck in the goldbugs for yet another beating.
    Nov 16, 2013. 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No One Has Had A Successful Model Of Gold? I Do! [View article]
    "US Treasury Real yields were the best drivers of gold." Hogwash. Yields do not 'set' gold prices. That is accomplished by supply and demand, as it is for all commodities. The correlation between Indian demand for jewelry and gold price is a much better fit. Incidentally, If you want to see an interesting correlation, look at the relationship between the price of coffee and gold. It is astounding although completely nonsensical.
    Nov 16, 2013. 12:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Iran Oil Outlook (Part 2): How Iran Stockpiles Oil And Hides The Fact [View article]
    I am not getting the logic of this article. Why would Iran pump oil out of it's natural reservoirs, go to the trouble of creating salt caverns and then pump the oil back into the ground? How does that make sense? The US stores it's strategic reserves in salt caverns because there was a time when it didn't have enough domestic oil to withstand a supply disruption. Iran has no such problem. It has plenty of easily accessible domestic oil.
    It also makes little sense for Iran to dump a couple of billion barrels of oil onto the market when sanctions are lifted. Why would they want to deliberately crash the market? How would that be in their best interests?

    It was interesting to read the process on how salt caverns are enlarged but I have to agree with Change is ....Constant This article is nothing more than pure conjecture with no reliable evidence to back it up.

    However, I will concede that anything is possible even when improbable. Perhaps you could produce a government publication that might validate your suspicion that IRAN has stockpiled billions of barrels ?
    Nov 16, 2013. 11:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: When Will The Gold Bugs Give In? [View article]
    It is interesting that the one author who has consistently called gold correctly is subject to ridicule while authors who write bullish articles get plenty of positive commentary. It's as if the 'crowd' can somehow force gold to go their way (up) if they agree that it should be so and attack those that tell it the way it is. An attitude of denial isn't going to 'make' gold do anything . Markets just don't work that way.

    By the way Doug, if the S&P had gone up for 12 straight years, would you be advocating that stocks would be a good place to put ones money? The very fact that gold did go up for 12 years is what is working against it now. Gold is in a long overdue bear market!

    All the other issues raised are very relevant to the fortunes of the American dollar to which gold is theoretically inversely correlated. I say theoretically because demand is the fundamental driver of gold and currency fluctuations do not create real lasting demand. That being said a severe currency collapse would certainly create some demand, especially if it were accompanied by hyper-inflation. That scenario is every goldbug's dream but it has the same dream they have had since the 1970s and it's will probably be the same 30 years from now.

    Despite what many want to believe, gold demand has been tanking since early summer, compared to 2012. The latest report from the World Gold Council for the 3rd quarter is pretty dismal. Demand is down 21% ( a whopping 232 fewer tonnes) from the same quarter of 2012. The first and second quarters were also down so what we are talking about here is not a one time anomaly, it's a trend!

    Everyone has heard about the heavy duty central bank purchases but the facts are that the central banks have bought 297 tonnes thus far in 2013 which is 96 tonnes LESS than 2012! Oops! That's an inconvenient truth the goldbugs don't want to discuss. Those who are making bullish noises are very good at ignoring the only thing that really matters and that is gold is now behaving like any other commodity that is subject to a decline in demand. The price goes down. No magic here folks. Anyone wishing to study the numbers can view them at the following link:
    I advise anyone looking the numbers to concentrate on the actual tonnages and not on percentages.
    Nov 16, 2013. 12:52 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold - What's Next From Central Banks? [View article]
    The latest statistics from the World Gold Council are not very encouraging for a goldbug. Over all demand was down a whopping 21% in the third quarter vs 2012 with the central bank buying down 17%. Maybe that is why gold is struggling? Here is the link for those who may want to study the statistics:
    Nov 15, 2013. 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dollar Is Losing Utility As World Reserves Shift - But What Of Gold's Role? [View article]
    Why are some people insisting there is a gold shortage when in fact there is not? Vendors running short on supply is old news from back in the spring when there was a temporary shortage from the mints due to a short lived and unexpected spike in demand. There is no problem getting gold now from the reputable dealers. If you are truly having a problem getting gold from your local dealer, try the Canadian mint and get all you want.

    I have no clue how low gold is going to go and neither does anyone else without a crystal ball, but I know what it has been doing for quite some time now despite the million and one reasons gold advocates have been yapping about as to why it should be going up. I believe in what gold has been doing, going down, and not what someone says should be happening. My only gold related holdings now are some very oversold junior mining stocks.
    Nov 13, 2013. 02:22 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Central Bank Gold Demand Is Not What It Seems [View article]
    Thanks for the clarification concerning the reported central bank gold reserves. Not all is as it seems is a good way to put it. The central banks are notorious for being on the wrong side of gold's trend, buying as the metal falls in price and selling as it is rising. Every new generation of gold buyers learn this lesson the hard way after buying into the hype that the central banks must 'know' something and higher gold prices and new all time highs are on the way.

    This movie is just a remake of the one that was made in the eighties and it didn't end well at that time for the clever investors who thought they were front running the banks and the imaginary multitudes that were going to drive up gold to imaginary heights.
    Nov 12, 2013. 08:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dollar Is Losing Utility As World Reserves Shift - But What Of Gold's Role? [View article]
    And gold continues to languish, working it's way down to test it's lows. Whose selling and why?
    Nov 12, 2013. 08:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment