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  • Don't Jump The Gun On Natural Gas [View article]
    Steve, good point on the 2018 contract. However, most investors do not play futures nor would I ever recommend that they do. Buying on leverage always comes back to bite ones ass so unless an investor is well financed to deal with the inevitable margin calls that occur when the commodity is going against a position, I would advise everyone to stay away from futures. I play them but have years of experience and no problems with financing.

    ETF's are a far safer way to play a commodity but do suffer from severe contango decay just as the near month futures do, so that must be taken into account. The ETF (UNL) is somewhat better in that regard than UNG
    Dec 10, 2013. 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rare Holiday Discount Sale Is In The Precious Metals And Junior Miners [View article]
    Sorry, I meant a 180 degree drop.
    Dec 9, 2013. 09:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Jump The Gun On Natural Gas [View article]
    TDune75: The contango loss on UNG is no worse on the pocketbook than if one was playing the futures directly. In fact, the two are directly linked. There is no good way to play the commodity without risking a loss of value due to contango. The trick is to never buy when NG is on a tear, as it is now. Wait for the next sell off which usually comes in late December and continues until early March and wait for the seasonal rally that usually occurs in late March/early April.

    Of course, if we get an unusally cold winter that drains stocks excessively, there may not be a sell off of any significance. No body says that is easy to forecast NG prices in the future. Good luck.
    Dec 9, 2013. 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Down, Metals Down - Which One Is Lying? [View article]
    Avi used the phrase "one more drop" twice in this article which is unusual in that he normally has used it only once per article as gold has continued downward in it's relentless bear market. Perhaps there is some significance to that doubling up of the phrase?

    We better pay attention because sooner or later, gold is to reverse course at one of those Fibonacci levels instead of going through them. I take it that 98 is the new line in the sand for GLD.
    Dec 8, 2013. 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Japan May Matter More Than Tapering [View article]
    Up until recently, QE was judged a failure by most talking heads and assorted experts here on SA. Now that the stock market is at record highs, reported unemployment is falling and GDP is rising, the same people are now telling us that when the tapering begins, the markets will tank and all hell is going to break loose.

    Ok, so Japan's QE is now being judged as a complete failure after only one year. This story has a very familiar ring to it. may be an excellent time to invest in the Japanese markets.
    Dec 8, 2013. 11:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rare Holiday Discount Sale Is In The Precious Metals And Junior Miners [View article]
    The bubble broke two years ago, according the chart you presented of gold prices since 1970. How much more vertical does the rise have to be to qualify as being a bubble? The downside looks close to a 90 degree drop. The point is that charts can be extremely deceptive depending on the scales that are used in the presentation.
    Dec 8, 2013. 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rare Holiday Discount Sale Is In The Precious Metals And Junior Miners [View article]
    Jeb, the chart you presented of gold's price since 1970 illustrates perfectly what a parabolic rise looks like when a long time frame is used on a small chart. In the future, anytime a goldbug claims that gold was not in a bubble, I will link them back to this article and advise them to look at the chart. You should get a lot of 'hits'.
    Dec 7, 2013. 10:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case Of The Identical Job Numbers [View article]
    Kevin, I always enjoy your thoughtful analysis and well written articles. Thanks!
    Dec 7, 2013. 09:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Oil About To Follow Gold Down? This Chart Says It Will. [View article]
    This is an excellent article that explains the dramatic failure of gold and the author didn't use the word 'manipulation' even once. If he says the crude oil chart looks like trouble, I think it would be wise to heed the warning.
    Dec 6, 2013. 10:01 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: Still Not Enough Demand For A Rally [View article]
    chris: I personally know people who took out a second mortgage to buy gold in the early 80's after it had dropped from $800 to $500. It was seen then as a sure thing to go to $1200 real quick. They finally got out several years later when gold dropped below $300 and needless to say, don't play the markets anymore.
    Dec 6, 2013. 12:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware: They Can Manipulate The BLS Data [View article]
    This article is purely speculative and not worthy of publication in SA. Anyone can make up conspiracy theories and this one is a whopper.
    Dec 5, 2013. 02:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look At Corporate Earnings Growth, Liquidity Traps And The Law Of Diminishing Returns [View article]
    Joseph: BTW, I am now short the overall market with the exception of coal and select gold mining stocks with a few dividend paying oil stocks. I believe a nasty correction is very probable in the near future with high flying sectors taking the biggest hit.
    Dec 5, 2013. 12:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look At Corporate Earnings Growth, Liquidity Traps And The Law Of Diminishing Returns [View article]
    Joseph, by boosting stock values via QE, the FED has helped to ease one of the greatest developing crisis of our time and yet no one is talking about it. After the 2008 crash, almost all pension funds were in deep trouble. Severe cuts to pensions looked like the only solution and that would have been a disaster to the wave of baby boomers that are just beginning to exercise their option to receive a pension for their remaining years. Given that these same baby boomers are collectively the biggest force of consumer spending, a sledgehammer blow was about to hit the economy that would last for decades. Broke retirees do not make for a healthy economy. The FED's QE programs have gone a long way in boosting stock values and have returned some degree of solvency to the pension funds.

    Unfortunately, unless the funds get out of the stock market while stocks valuations are high (thereby leaving the banks to 'hold the bag'), the problem of insolvency will rear it's ugly head once again the next time we have a bear market and that occurrence is just a matter of time.
    Dec 5, 2013. 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: Still Not Enough Demand For A Rally [View article]
    The gold miners look like a compelling buy although we could see some more disappointing sell-offs that take GDX close to or slightly below it's recent lows. The miners are continuing to under perform gold itself and that is reason not too get to heavy into buying the gold miners just yet. Small positions are advisable.

    There is a better buy that looks like the lows are in. Is anyone paying attention to the coal miners? They have been quietly making a series of higher lows without attracting much attention. No one loves dirty coal anymore and yet the coal miner stocks are moving up in stealth mode. That's how big moves get started folks. My favorites are ANR and ACI. I don't trust JRCC management not to take the easy way out of it's ugly debt problem.(bankruptcy has become part of the American business model)
    Dec 5, 2013. 11:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Natural Gas Continue To Heat Up? [View article]
    The decline in supply is key to future pricing. Below normal temperatures for an extended period could send NG to the $5 range, very quickly. As a previous commentator pointed out, the investment options for NG are not favorable for long term investors. Those seeking long term exposure should try the ETF (FCG) , which is an unleveraged play on producer stocks. Unfortunately, if the stock market tanks, they will also suffer. One can do well with UNG or the leveraged UGAZ by playing the swings and not getting too greedy with profits.
    Dec 4, 2013. 02:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment