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eagle1003

eagle1003
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  • It's "death bells" for commodities, says Citigroup, calling 2013 the year in which it's realized the commodity supercycle is over and a new era in which the relative performance of how "stuff" performs against each other and other assets is what matters. Specifically on oil, Citi calls Q1's move higher without merit and expects the recent downtick in prices to continue. [View news story]
    Yep... big haircut on that one. I always limit any position to a small portion of net worth so the hurt is limited. There will be no capitulation selling by me. The financial pain is acceptable as it teaches me not make stupid investing mistakes and being long the miners was truly a stupid move. That said, I haven't entirely given up on them but wouldn't consider adding to the position without seeing a good washout decline in gold and today's 5% drop is a pittance that won't shake out to many bulls.
    Apr 12 08:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow Doomsday: Why It Might Happen Soon [View article]
    Dow Doomsday? Should we seek shelter under our beds?
    Apr 12 08:18 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Nosedives Below $1,500 As ETF Holdings Free Fall, Fueling Panic Selling [View article]
    Is anyone aware that Eric Sprott has dumped almost his entire holdings in Sprott Physical Silver Holdings during the past three weeks ? He blew out something like 4.5 million units averaging approx $11. Clearly, he doesn't have any confidence in the silver market.
    Apr 12 08:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Nosedives Below $1,500 As ETF Holdings Free Fall, Fueling Panic Selling [View article]
    Today's 5% drop is not a capitulation sell off. That's peanuts. Expect more downside and don't get excited about diving in to early. I want to see another 15% drop before I add to my gold holdings.
    Apr 12 07:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's "death bells" for commodities, says Citigroup, calling 2013 the year in which it's realized the commodity supercycle is over and a new era in which the relative performance of how "stuff" performs against each other and other assets is what matters. Specifically on oil, Citi calls Q1's move higher without merit and expects the recent downtick in prices to continue. [View news story]
    Now that gold has broken through what the technicians thought was 'support' (guess it wasn't), there should be more selling fueled by margin calls. Another 10% to 15% haircut would probably be enough to cause the weak holders to capitulate and then we might see a turn around. The Goldman Sachs sell call was somewhat encouraging in that many calls they have made in the past turned out to dead wrong and perhaps self serving. Does anyone believe they issued a sell call on gold because they are concerned that investors may be hurt by falling prices? Yeah, right.

    I am old enough to remember the 70's gold craze that sucked in a lot of people who just couldn't get past the fact that gold had gone parabolic to $850 and therefore "must" go back up. After collapsing to $300, there were two rallies over the next few years that stopped at $500. The moral of that story is that caution is advisable here and please don't bet the farm on this pig.

    I have a few bucks riding on gold and will add to it if we get a nasty sell off but I won't be hanging on to it dreaming about $5000 an ounce. I'll leave that to the die hard goldbugs.
    Apr 12 07:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: It's Just Silliness, Right? [View article]
    A sensible article. There won't be too many comments because the bears are in a state of shock and would prefer to read a doom and gloom article because it makes them feel better. It's tough to go from the disbelief stage to the next which is the acceptance stage. That's when we will be seeing more of the "the market can't possibly go down" mentality from authors and commentators.

    Of course, for the perma-bears, there is only one stage and that is to cry "Crash" until they get their wish, even if it takes years. Then they can go on talk shows and write books about how they were 'right'. To a perma-bear, a bull market is always unjustified and just noise between their beloved crashes.
    Apr 12 10:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons To Stay Away From Gold This Year [View article]
    Lots of good rational thinking in this article. However, it is interesting how these kinds of negative articles come out when gold is at it's lows. Where were they when gold was at 1800 last fall?
    Rational thinking doesn't always produce the expected results when applied to anything that is sentiment driven in the manner that gold is. Maybe there is hope yet for the hurting goldbugs.
    Apr 11 06:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: Wake Up And Smell The Breakout [View article]
    Mr Stuber: The S&P is fast approaching your upper end target of 1600. You may want to consider upgrading that number before the crash starts that you have been predicting since last fall. I am thinking maybe 1800 or 1900 (just a suggestion)
    Apr 11 01:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: Wake Up And Smell The Breakout [View article]
    It's interesting how few commentators there are when an author presents a bullish article in contrast to the articles a bearish author, who will get countless supportive comments and praise for their supposed insight despite the fact that they have been dead wrong since 2009.

    It's equally perverse that the bears who endlessly call for a crash are the same ones that go on to write successful books when it finally happens. There is a lesson here but I can't quite figure it out.
    Apr 11 01:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why GDP Growth Should Only Really Matter To Economists [View article]
    It is not GDP that the market cares about, it's earnings and today's lean and mean global corporations have been making piles of money even during periods of low and even negative GDP.

    The correlation between GDP and the markets has always been erratic. On the other hand, the correlation between earnings and the S&P is quite consistent when adjusted for a lead time of 3 to 6 months for the market vs earnings
    Apr 11 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • April Longings [View article]
    Investors seek capital gains and worry about earnings. Retiring Baby Boomers were the investors of the nineties but today seek yield and worry about dividend income. The bonds are getting a little shaky looking so guess who's driving the market up with their headlong plunge into dividend paying defensive stocks.
    Apr 11 12:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The TINA-Effect: Why The Dow Jones Keeps On Climbing [View article]
    Very good article. This is one of the very few authors who understands why the dividend paying stocks have been driving up the markets. The Boomers are being herded out of bonds and into equities and they want safety and yield. Forget the risky and low paying commodity and tech sectors. Gold stocks and gold itself pay practically nothing so what's left? Utilities, financials ( fading due to trust issues), consumer goods and services, and let's not forget health care because if there is one thing the Boomers know first hand: Getting old sucks and the health care sectors absolutely must be big winners for the next 30 years. (Note to self; get into funeral services 30 years from now, no wait, tell my children to do that with their inheritance)
    Apr 11 12:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Would A War With North Korea Be Bad For Stocks? [View article]
    If North Korea were to use nukes, the Americans would be more than willing to bomb them into the stone age, maybe with a few nukes of their own. The war would be over in a matter of hours or a few days, at the most, with minimal disruption to the markets. Of course, if China were to be offended by the fact that North Korea was being flattened, things could get a little dicey.
    Apr 9 05:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Even The Bulls Are Becoming Wary: Can We Trust The Market Any Longer? [View article]
    Mr Stuber: This is, by far, the best article you have written. You did an excellent job explaining the M2 velocity issue and it's relationship to inflation. There are far to many authors (who should know better) who insist on spreading the false premise that the FED's "money printing" absolutely must result in a falling dollar, sky rocketing precious metal price and rampant inflation. That may happen someday, but only if the M2 velocity reverses it's downward trend and moves up sharply. The Fed isn't as stupid as some want to believe and they will remove excess reserves as quickly as they dare to. The markets will not be enthusiastic if too much play money is removed too quickly.

    You call on the dollar was spot on, congratulations. My proprietary momentum indicators say that the dollar rally has got strong legs. I would not dare short the US dollar.

    I also agree that bonds are going higher. It would not be surprising if they were to challenge the highs. I would not short them at this point but definitely down the road when the rally weakens.

    The only area that we disagree on is the state of the stock market. In my opinion, not enough retail investors have been sucked in to allow for adequate distribution. The volumes are simply to low for that to occur. The market is all about psychology and the public must be made to believe that all is well and under control. A market crash, at this point, would be counter productive in achieving that goal.

    Right now, the smart money is driving up the market, patiently waiting for the pension funds and retail investors to dive in with both feet. There will be a corrections, followed by dramatic recoveries that will be accompanied by good economic news. It is those kinds of moves that get the dumb money excited, not wanting to miss out any longer .

    Yes, Mr. Stuber, a crash is coming, but only after the dumb money has blown their cash reserves in a market that they will be convinced cannot go down, at least not before they get out with their imagined profits. Are we there yet? In my opinion, not even close.
    Apr 9 12:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Words: Shorting Gold [View article]
    Doug: My four words should have been : "Gold has been going down."

    I honestly don't know what it is going to do in the next year.
    Apr 5 02:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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