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eagle1003

eagle1003
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  • China May Be Importing A Lot More Gold Than Is Being Reported [View article]
    Ok, so import numbers are almost certainly higher than what has been reported, at least for 2013. How does any amount of imported gold ,that has already been bought and paid for, affect the price going forward? As for import projections for 2014, any number is just a guess.

    Jun 30 10:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Second Quarter GDP Bounce-Back May Not Be Bullish [View article]
    The fact that the market has not wavered in it's upward trajectory, despite a horrible quarter, is telling of just how controlled the market has become.
    Jun 29 12:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Second Quarter GDP Bounce-Back May Not Be Bullish [View article]
    573311: "tell me what the markets are going to next" You really do believe in crystal balls, don't you?
    Jun 28 11:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Poised To Test $4.25 As Traders Await Summer Heat [View article]
    No telling what NG will do during July and August which are normally poor months for NG. That said, I took out a small long side position today at $4.42 although I hope to see some lower numbers for further acquisition. An upside spike is entirely possible, if the northeast heats up for an extended period.
    Jun 26 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gundlach Likes Gold [View article]
    Last week's rise in gold was a nice warm up run to much higher numbers.
    Jun 26 01:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Sell Stocks And Buy Bonds? [View article]
    "Weak economic data is one of many inputs that impact asset prices. Fed policy is another." Both are wrong. Presently, economic data, weak or strong, means the market goes going up. Fed policy, printing money or tapering both mean the market goes up.

    Obviously, something is driving the market that has nothing to do with fundamentals. Rather, it has everything do with speculators, flush with near unlimited amount of funds, buying stocks at what ever the price. They (the banks) take their cue from a central bank who will not tolerate corrections nor volatility. Someone is getting filthy rich in this environment and the FED knows that it isn't the middle class serfs.
    Jun 26 12:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Volatility Index Does Not Tell The Future [View article]
    The author has got it right. From the chart, it is quite clear that the VIX spike in 08 didn't occur until the bear market was nearly two thirds over. I don't know why the VIX gets so much attention when it is worthless as a predictor.
    Jun 26 12:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 4 Most Dangerous Words In The English Language [View article]
    Good article. Thanks for the excellent link.
    Jun 25 01:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Crude Awakening [View article]
    Good article. Oil price is a big deal. Interesting how quickly the price of oil can affect inflation. Look at what the airlines are doing with their fares.
    Jun 23 12:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Maybe It's Time To Go Long? [View article]
    As GLD approaches the 140 level and then goes through it, I suspect that those who have been shorting will be very sorry that they did. The long term gold bulls have finally gotten some evidence that the gold bull has resumed and they don't want to believe it and worse yet, may even be shorting with the expectation that AVI's call for one more wave down will eventually come to pass. They didn't want to believe gold could go down in 2013 and now don't want to believe that it will continue to rise.

    This is how the market works, with some loser always being convinced to be on the wrong side of a trade.
    Jun 23 10:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodity Prices: Basics For Businesses That Buy, Sell Or Use Basic Materials [View article]
    Oil is one commodity that is not going to get cheaper in the long run. It is only a matter of time before demand finally overwhelms supply on a permanent basis. If fracking had not enabled man to extract more oil from existing fields, we would be there already.
    Jun 22 01:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Maybe It's Time To Go Long? [View article]
    AVI: If I am understanding you correctly, the right play would be to short GLD now and to continue to do so even if it gets up to 140, in order to be well positioned for a fall to the 100 level. I am not saying I agree with you, but do wish to understand your strategy.
    Jun 22 12:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Precious metals soar as Fed stays dovish and Americans head into Iraq [View news story]
    Macro: The 2.3% rate for the US is a past 12 months number, not a one month extrapolated calculation. It may not be a trend, as you have suggested, but I believe that the behavior of the PM's is saying otherwise.
    BTW, the XIV/SVXY strategy is excellent. (XIV is an ETN and therefore less desirable than SVXY) I have been waiting for a significant jump in volatility and a draw down before buying in which, in hindsight, was a not a good idea as SVXY has marched upwards.
    Jun 22 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Precious metals soar as Fed stays dovish and Americans head into Iraq [View news story]
    Macro: Welcome back! Sorry, but your data is already obsolete and to a gold trader, of little relevance . How about if we look at some data that is a little more recent, up to May of 2014?

    The three largest economies of the world are that of the US, China and Japan. The combined GDP of just those three is almost double that of the next seven largest. Two of the top three, the US and Japan, have seen their CPI rates jump significantly during the past 12 months (vs 2013). The US went from 1.14%(2013) to 2.3%. Japan went from 1.5% (2013) to 3.41% and China's rate is up slightly to 2.5%. These numbers are not just "noise". It is laughable how the government (and media) can perpetrate a con job on the public with talk of deflation when exactly the opposite is occurring!
    Three other countries that are in the top 10, Russia, India and Brazil have unacceptably high rates (2014) of 7.58%, 7.08% and 6.10%, respectively. Deflation? Not bloody likely!

    Let's not pretend that inflation is remaining subdued. Despite the government's best attempts to mask the true extent of inflation, by way of continually changing a calculation methodology that purposely mitigates actual price increases (hedonics), the numbers are still bad enough to paint a not so rosy picture. Is it not obvious that inflation is moving up and doing so rather quickly, every time we buy the necessities of life like food, gas, insurance, health care, tuition, haircuts, paper goods, services... did I miss anything?

    I suspect the smart money saw what was coming some months ago, and that may explain why gold , after bottoming nearly a year ago, has since been moving up in stealth fashion with series of higher lows. The most recent surge is likely not just not a 'bounce' as some have suggested, but rather, a taste of what is to come: higher gold and silver prices.
    Jun 21 09:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Benefiting From Behind-The-Curve Fed [View article]
    The correlation between interest rates and gold is inconsistent over a long time frame. Inflation, on the other hand, provides a much better correlation but with a time shift. Rising gold precedes inflation. BTW, gold doesn't 'care' about the phoney massaged numbers provided by the government. Real inflation is what matters.

    The value of energy is probably the best correlation with gold and will become even more so as more nations begin settling their oil transactions with gold. It is important to note that this could happen without the US dollar declining significantly against other major currencies, given that nearly all the major trading partners are debasing their currencies at much the same pace as the US. In the not so distant future, it is going to take a whole lot more of everyone's currency to buy a barrel of oil or a loaf of bread even while retaining much of their relative value to one another.
    Jun 21 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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