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  • The Main Bearish Thesis On Crude [View article]
    Paulo, I always enjoy your well reasoned articles. Thanks for continuing to contribute here on SA when so many others have quit due to SA's discouraging new 'rules'. I guess they know what's best for their readers. But, I digress, so on with my take on the oil conundrum. What is the real issue? Is it too much supply or not enough demand or, just plain old manipulation by those who seek to control the market as they see fit (Saudi Arabia)? We have no way of knowing for sure because the media never paints a true picture of anything anymore. The simple answer may be that too much supply has been has hit a market too quickly and has upset a long standing demand/supply balance.

    Where and when crude is going to bottom is a guessing game. I suspect that eventually, some producer(s) will surprise the markets with an output cut that gets the ball rolling that will cause other producers to do likewise. Oil could conceivably jump 50% in less than a week. The question is, how low does crude have to go before that happens? My guess is somewhere between $30 and $35.
    Jan 20, 2015. 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: It Is Alive, But For How Long? [View article]
    Still waiting for the $2.50 level.
    Jan 20, 2015. 02:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Everything Has Changed: Oil, Saudi Arabia, And The End Of OPEC [View article]
    Sorry, the link was incomplete, here is the correct link:
    Jan 13, 2015. 03:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding The Gold Trade: Why Gold Hates Inflation [View article]
    I read and re-read this article and it made less sense the second time around. The real rate of inflation in the US is far less important than how many ounces of gold an Indian wants to adorn himself with or how many tons the Russians and Chinese are buying. A loss of confidence in the American dollar would send gold soaring, no matter what the real interest rate might be.
    Jan 13, 2015. 03:11 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Everything Has Changed: Oil, Saudi Arabia, And The End Of OPEC [View article]
    Forget all the complex theories about why oil is crashing. One of the commentators, stockdunn, was good enough to post a link to a video that everyone should watch. It is becoming clear why the Saudis themselves have publicly stated why we may never see $100 oil again. I will post the video link again so those who haven't seen it don't have to search for stockdunn's comment (credit is due to stockdunn).

    Watch the following video to understand the progress towards what may be mans' greatest invention.…/products/compact-fus...
    Jan 13, 2015. 01:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas In Early Stages Of Rebalancing Process, Prices To Fall Further [View article]
    Long term futures are the way to go if one keeps plenty of cash reserve on hand to withstand the margin calls in case the trade goes south for a while.

    Hmmm.. those 2019 futures sure do look tempting.
    Jan 10, 2015. 12:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Major Correction Is Imminent...In My Subjective Opinion [View article]
    Okay. I also want to make a prediction: The market is going to crash!! Put another way for those who aren't getting it: A crash is almost for sure inevitable!!

    One must say that once in a while or there is no possibility of a book deal down the road for having 'nailed' it. That Schiff guy is my inspiration. Now there is a man who knows how to make money. Sells a ton of books. What a genius.
    Jan 10, 2015. 12:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas In Early Stages Of Rebalancing Process, Prices To Fall Further [View article]
    Don't waste your time with charting. It doesn't work with a commodity whose price at this time of year is so dependent on the weather. Unless, of course, charting can tell you what the weather will be like in the following months.

    I am out of NG for now because there is no shortage and the weather isn't supposed to be terribly cold over the next few weeks. Yeah, sure, it could pop up in spectacular fashion but it could also easily drop below $2.50 due to plenty of production and not enough demand. The risk/reward possibilities are not something to get excited about. Having said that, $2 gas would get me very interested.
    Jan 8, 2015. 11:46 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Challenging The Mainstream Propaganda [View article]
    This article is the best I have read in a long time. Well done.
    Jan 8, 2015. 03:14 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Over The Long-Term You Cannot Bet Against China Because The Chinese Are Too Smart [View article]
    A higher population means a greater number of those that score at the genius levels. It is those people that are 'harnessed' by business to invent shit that can be used to advance the lot of mankind. But, unfortunately, as those with IQs in the 75 range become an ever greater percentage of country's population, due to their unrestrained reproductive tenancies , things start going south as the social programs to support the those idiots gradually bankrupts the nation. Don't think for a second that the elite don't understand this. The solution proposed by the elite to address the problem would be viewed by most as being too radical.
    Jan 7, 2015. 01:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Over The Long-Term You Cannot Bet Against China Because The Chinese Are Too Smart [View article]
    If average Q has a influence on a countries economic progress, the US is in big trouble.
    Jan 7, 2015. 12:46 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advantage Oil & Gas: Great Candidate For Natural Gas Investors [View article]
    I have been watching Advantage and I think it's a great play if natural gas prices recover above the $4 mark. The paying down of some of their debt is certainly noteworthy. That said, natural gas pricing is looking pretty shaky right now and there may be a lot more pain in store for NG only producers like Advantage, particularly if the next few months are abnormally warm and further hedging cannot be done at a reasonable price.
    Jan 7, 2015. 12:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rally In Gold Continues, But For How Long? [View article]
    The rising dollar is diverting attention away from gold's underlying strength. While American investors dither, waiting for that "one more bottom" that so many SA contributors are calling for, the rest of the world is watching gold rise up in brisk fashion and with excellent chart action in what ever currency one can think of.

    The miners have also offered a clue as to what is coming by outperforming gold, by a wide margin, notably, during the in past week. Maybe we should be paying closer attention to what is the price action is telling us and less attention to the nay-sayers who think the rally can't last long.

    The author did present some COT reports to support his bearish case but let's not forget that unlike pork bellies, gold is traded around the world and on several other exchanges besides the COMEX. Unless the numbers are at very extreme values, the COT reports are of little consequence as the COMEX loses its relevance to the eastern exchanges that refuse to play the 'paper' gold scam.

    The smart money has been buying stocks, real estate and even farmland in an attempt turn cash into something that will remain valuable when things start coming apart during the next few years. Now it's gold's turn. When gold finally does break out, it will probably be a 'shock and awe' fashion that stuns the average investor into a paralysis while watching gold leap beyond reach. I am talking about the possibility of 100 dollar a day moves. The FED and it's fellow central banks are eventually going to lose their war on gold and the naked short selling will stop as the demand for the real gold accelerates.

    At the very least, I expect we will see gold testing it's all time highs before the end of 2015. All those who have been waiting so long for the right time to dive in, will be left in the dust. I don't intend be one of them.
    Jan 6, 2015. 11:36 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Break Point For Oil Companies [View article]
    As they say, the cure for low prices is low prices. It isn't going to take much of a drop in supply to send crude oil prices back up. I doubt that we will have to wait for years to see $100 an barrel again, maybe even within one year.

    Demographics are no doubt playing a part in the drop in demand by those living in the West but it is the demographics of the East that will eventually determine the price of energy as their middle class becomes more mobile and wealthy.

    We can live without gold and silver, but without oil to power our industry and agriculture sectors, we are all screwed, unless, of course, someone has developed a working cold fusion source of energy.
    Jan 6, 2015. 08:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Remarkable Gold And Silver Trends Going Into 2015 [View article]
    This author has done a good job of bring together several conditions that are relevant to the direction of the precious metals markets. Nice work.
    Jan 6, 2015. 07:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment