Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View eagle1003's Comments BY TICKER:

Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Fed's Incredible Stock-Market Levitation Of Recent Years Is Failing [View article]
    The author has made several valid points in this well written article. Indeed, the rally off the most recent low was one of the strangest I have ever witnessed. There was no lengthy see-saw tug of war between the bulls and bears as would normally be expected when emotional human beings are making quick decisions. The selling stopped rather abruptly as if computers were being reigned in. Then in unison, they were again unleashed with only one strategy: BUY!

    The lift off was controlled and very broad based, as if that 'someone' decided that it was time to put an end to the carnage before any real panic could take hold . Almost all sectors moved up simultaneously! Yes, I am only speculating but the best word I can think of to describe the event is: Contrived
    Aug 28, 2015. 10:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stealth Bear Market That Could Take Markets By Surprise [View article]
    The 2nd quarter GDP revision came in at an incredible 3.7% and the official unemployment rate is only 5.3%. Wow, just awesome! So why is the FED so reluctant to raise the interest rate by a measly 0.25%? It should be obvious. The FED knows the numbers are pure horse shit! There can no other explanation. The Obama administration is feeding lies to the public in a desperate attempt to keep the lid on a simmering pot of discontent and seems to have the full cooperation of the media which is now, for the most part, conveniently owned by America's billionaires.

    I think that a bear market may have already begun.
    Aug 28, 2015. 10:01 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Ready For The Second Round Of The Market Downturn [View article]
    William, like you, I have made calls that were dead wrong and which have cost me dearly. I was bearish on gold between 2011 and 2013 and made money during the slide. I turned bullish on gold in 2014, lost money and would have lost even more if I had remained bullish. Except for a few junior miners that I have held for some time, I am done 'playing' with the gold sector. I have no clue where it's headed. However, I do see greener pastures else where for my capital.

    I am quite bearish on the stock market and believe that the recent sell off (a minor 11% correction) has been a warning of what is to come. The market will either continue to rocket upward to new highs and then rapidly collapse or it will move up and down with extreme volatility for a few weeks to a month and then collapse. I do not see a sustainable bull market in the cards and as such, I have put a large chunk of my money into inverse ETFs.
    Aug 28, 2015. 09:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Ready For The Second Round Of The Market Downturn [View article]
    By the way, your extremely bullish articles on the commodities two years ago puts you in the unenviable position of being a contrarian at exactly the wrong time as we all know of the slaughter that has taken place in the commodity sector since 2013!

    The commodity sector is just now starting to show some signs of life but the latest action could very well nothing than a bear market sucker rally. Is China or the US expected to be big consumers of commodities in the next few years?
    Aug 28, 2015. 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Ready For The Second Round Of The Market Downturn [View article]
    William, Bret has made some very valid points. Your contrarian logic is similar to that of other contrarians, notably, Stephan Kaplan, who has been advocating the purchase of commodity related assets since early 2012. Being stubbornly married to money losing contrarian positions can be ruinous to one's finances. While the rest of the market has soared, anyone in gold, oil, or pretty much anything else commodity related, has suffered massive losses.

    William, how much has your bearish and contrarian stance cost you in the past few years? Unless your just an armchair player, your losses must be numbing!

    Aug 28, 2015. 11:44 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Markets Race China To The Bottom - Can We Avoid Their Fate? [View article]
    Phil, I always find your articles to be an enjoyable read. You seem to have a very good grasp on the inner workings of the markets. I noticed that you have refrained from using the word 'crash' to describe the current sell off. The S&P is still only slightly more than 10% off it's highs and I would hardly call it a 'crash' as so many other pundits are describing this rather tame correction. When the market is down 20, 30 or 40%, what will the catch word be in those events (which I think is coming, eventually)?
    Aug 26, 2015. 11:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Is Spooking The Markets Not China [View article]
    Stock markets around the world took a big hit today, starting in Asia where most investors have never heard of Yellen and who could care less about the FED. The markets are all sliding in sync for a reason that is so far not apparent. Anyone with a clue knows the economy has been crappy for years so it's doubtful that is the real reason for the markets sudden change of heart.

    It's quite possible that a 'Black Swan' event is in the making and we may soon discover the real reason for the market's rout. There are some very dangerous individuals (Cheney types) who are working within and outside the US government with agendas that involve satisfying the wishes of the military-industrial complex and those types love a war. A weak and ineffectual US President is the last thing the world needs right now and the current resident of the White House is exactly that.

    I remain short as I think the bear party is far from being over.
    Aug 24, 2015. 06:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bear Market Has 2 Phases [View article]
    Thanks for the informative article that is clear and concise. It is noteworthy that since the bear market low of 2009. it has been the Consumer Discretionary (Cyclicals), that have led the market, not, as many believe, the health care sector. The Energy sector, everyone's darling of the 2003-2007 bull market, now comes in dead last.
    It would seem that the stock market has been voting on the health of the US economy by pushing the Cyclicals to nose bleed heights while at the same time giving a thumbs down on energy because of muted global demand thanks to poor economic growth. Many would see that as an irreconcilable contradiction but the stock market has never really been about the health of the economy but rather it's all about the health of corporate profits and they haven't been all that shabby, at least, not yet.
    Aug 19, 2015. 05:49 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market's Behavioral Correction Has Begun [View article]
    Most commentators here on SA believe that a crash is warranted but how many actually believe that a crash will actually be permitted to occur? Very few, in my opinion. I don't see very many openly stating that they are actively shorting or buying inverse ETFs. Sure, lots talk about being safely into cash, but that has been the case for years now with so many waiting to 'get in' at better prices.

    The common consensus is that the FED will step in and stop any significant decline before it gets out of control. Anyone who has been shorting has had their ass kicked multiple times as the market screams upward after every minor pullback. It's at the point where traders are afraid to put on and keep a short position for any length of time. Accordingly, when there is a big correction, the majority who are bearish will be sitting on the side lines watching as a spectator.

    I may be wrong but I have seen this picture before, where violent up and down moves take place without any clear direction and it always ends the same. I remain short and adding to that position.
    Aug 13, 2015. 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Big Long' - Goldman Sachs And HSBC Buy 7.1 Tons Of Physical Gold [View article]
    Goldman must have a lot of trust in the COMEX to actually have every ounce of their gold on hand, ready to be picked up anytime. As it stands the 'purchase' was nothing more than an electronic transfer of promises.
    Aug 11, 2015. 02:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Recognize A Major Market Top... Or Bottom [View article]
    In 1929 and 1987, direct government interventions in the markets were non existent as opposed to what we have today where even minor corrections are quickly dealt with. While the economy cannot be successfully planned and never has been in history, the central banks, led by the FED, have demonstrated that stock and bond markets can be controlled, or at least they have been thus far.

    We have yet to discover if central banks can maintain that control over the long term. Has China's over whelming intervention in their markets proven to be a success or will it ultimately fail? If they are successful we will almost certainly see other central banks emboldened to intervene in a more direct manner in all markets, even those of the commodity sectors.
    Aug 11, 2015. 11:23 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Big Long' - Goldman Sachs And HSBC Buy 7.1 Tons Of Physical Gold [View article]
    Goldman must have a lot of trust in the COMEX to actually every ounce of their gold on hand, ready to be picked up anytime. As it stands the 'purchase' was nothing more than an electronic transfer of promises.
    Aug 11, 2015. 02:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold To Market: Are You Not Entertained? [View article]
    The author has proven to have a good understanding of the gold market and accordingly, his analysis is valuable. Thanks Ben, for your hard work.
    Aug 10, 2015. 09:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold's Artificial Lows From Extreme Shorting Attack Won't Last [View article]
    The short selling of gold contracts in massive quantities at times of minimum liquidity has been successfully executed on every occasion that it has been implemented over the past few years. I say "successful" because each time the price drops, due to the flushing out of weak hands, the perpetrators are able to buy back the short sold contracts at a substantially lower price for nice profit. This seems to have become a 'rinse and repeat' process that we will see again until such time as the price gets low enough for the really big money to decide that the game is up and it's time to reverse gold's direction.

    Mr. Hamilton may prove to be correct with his analysis and gold could see a nice rally in the near future but he really has no clue if we have seen the final low for gold. Remember, that only occurs once. What can be said with absolutely certainty is that the likes of Mr. Hamilton, Mr Kaplan, Schiff, and many others, is that they will one day get it it right with their relentless calls for gold and it's miners to rise into new bull markets simply because they have been stubbornly consistent with the same old rhetoric. What these 'predictors' are really relying on as an investment strategy is to buy and hold a beaten down asset until one day, the absolute final bottom is formed and they are finally 'right'. The problem is that such a strategy could easily result in an investor suffering 80%, or more, capital draw down over the course of years or even decades (gold during the 80's) As an example, those who bought gold miners in 2012 an 2013 have already experienced very high percentage draw downs of capital invested.

    The strategy is really not so bad if one has the resources and time to ride out the storm but is it really a good way to allocate capital if one has the expectation of a profitable return within a reasonable time frame? I personally have some money into gold miners that I really wish I had put into the health care equities instead.
    Aug 10, 2015. 01:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Magic Of IBM Share Buybacks In 2 Charts [View article]
    IBM's revenues have steadily dropped from the peak of 106.9 billion in 2011 to 92.8 for 2014. The first two quarters of 2015 have shown further deterioration in revenues. It is true that share buybacks have the effect of boosting EPS but persistent declining revenues are rarely a good thing and while financial engineering can be utilized to doctor gross profits and EPS, it cannot change sales.

    The latest quarter shows IBM with total assets of 112.7 billion and liabilities of 99 billion leaving shareholder's with 13.7 billion in equity (down from 20 billion in 2011). The market values IBM at 152 billion, more than 11 times the shareholder's equity. It is somewhat concerning that debt has been climbing with long term debt now at 33.3 billion, up from 22.8 billion in 2011.

    Is IBM (over?)valued because of it's yummy 3.3 % dividend? It would appear as if dividends are at least partially financed by debt rather than by any real growth of the company.

    Perhaps I am missing something but the way I see it, unless IBM comes up with some new product that is going reverse the slumping revenue problem, being married to this stock may not be a great idea.
    Aug 9, 2015. 08:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment