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  • No Safe Haven: Gold Theory Doesn't Work While Commodities Fall  [View article]
    In my 37 years of trading, I have never seen gold act as a safe haven for more than a few days during a crisis. Gold goes up when no one expects and it goes down when everyone believes that it should be going up. I hate playing the gold sector. There is no predictability based on anything fundamental other than some short term moves during the Indian wedding season and this year, even that didn't move gold up. COMEX storage numbers, Chinese gold import numbers, blah, blah, all mean nothing. Gold is somewhat unique in that unlike most commodities, the vast majority of the 'product' is never consumed and accordingly, every nearly ever ounce that has been mined and sold, becomes a potential source of supply at some point.

    For gold, it's all about sentiment. Personally, I have much better luck with the volatile but somewhat predictable natural gas sector.
    Sep 8, 2015. 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Another Episode In Boredom  [View article]
    The reverse split is bad news for UGAZ. Yes, the split doesn't change one's total dollar position but it is my observation that AFTER a reverse split, the price drops very quickly, even without a corresponding in the underlying commodity, I know that shouldn't happen but it does almost 100% of the time. Stay away from UGAZ for the time being.
    Sep 8, 2015. 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Strong August U.S. Bullion Sales But Should Investors Care?  [View article]
    This is a well reasoned article. Good job.
    Sep 6, 2015. 01:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Would Be Wise To Consider Arch Coal To Play A Coal Market Rebound  [View article]
    I got stung by the ANR bankruptcy. I didn't think that their balance sheet warranted that route. I think that declaring bankruptcy has become a way of doing business for too many American companies seeking an easy way out. I will very surprised if Arch does not take advantage of the benefits of bankruptcy. The shareholders, bond holders and creditors all get screwed while the CEO and his executives get to keep their jobs at running a company that is handed back to them virtually debt free. Some of the incompetents even manage to bankrupt a company a second time.
    Sep 4, 2015. 09:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Would Be Wise To Consider Arch Coal To Play A Coal Market Rebound  [View article]
    Does anyone know if the bankruptcies of Patriot Coal, Walter, ANR and a few others, has reduced coal production and if so, to what extent? Are they just operating with business as usual but with bankruptcy protection?
    Sep 4, 2015. 08:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy The Fear Now: Powerful Year-End Rally To 2250 On The S&P 500  [View article]
    Robert, it is quite conceivable that the market could rocket upward to new highs. It would be a move that would inflict maximum pain on those who are currently short, causing many to cover in disgust. However, in that scenario I would expect the trip back down to be particularly vicious with no time for the shorts to pile on. The other scenario would be for the market to churn sideways for a few months and then slowly slide down into a lengthy bear market with the shorts being too wore out by volatility to remain short for the long haul (covering at the first hint of a rally).

    I am bearish at the moment but recognize that there are far too many other investors who feel the same way. The market rarely rewards the majority and that is a concern.

    I asked you about the outlook for profits because that is all that really matters to the markets. If future profits are expected to be weak or declining, there is no way a bull market can continue for long.
    Sep 3, 2015. 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russian Market: Downside Is Not Over  [View article]
    Noobie: "The russian economy has been the 3rd best performing market..." I would like to view what ever links you could provide that are supportive of that statement.
    Sep 3, 2015. 12:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy The Fear Now: Powerful Year-End Rally To 2250 On The S&P 500  [View article]
    Mr Duval, I have a question for you. What is your opinion concerning overall corporate profits 6 months to a year from today? Will they be higher or lower and to what degree (your best guess)? What about over the next couple of years? Will profits be trending higher or lower? Thanks in advance for your input.
    Sep 3, 2015. 11:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Danger Of Buying The Next Dip  [View article]
    Eric, we agree on the Central bank stimulus issue although I think they may have given up on trying to support the markets, at least for now. It's sink or swim time. That said, a sudden and dramatic crash would almost certainly bring them back into play. The recent sell off was not a crash no matter how many times it has been described as such by pundits who attempt to sensationalize every pullback. It is quite possible that the bear market may turn out to be prolonged stealth deterioration rather than an sudden crash. Those are the type that inflict maximum pain for investors. Given that I am net short, I would prefer a crash, of course.

    Keep up with the articles as I always find your analysis to be thoughtful and interesting.
    Sep 2, 2015. 05:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Danger Of Buying The Next Dip  [View article]
    Eric, this "ongoing and relentless bull market"that you are talking about has not made a new high since mid-May. You have been writing bearish articles all year long but still refer to the current state of the market as being part of an ongoing bull market? That doesn't make sense. I would think that you would be calling this a stage one bear market.
    Sep 2, 2015. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Divergence In Precious Metals  [View article]
    To quote: "The question becomes, is gold strong or is it too expensive?" That statement demonstrates how pointless it is to study ratios of one product to another. It is impossible to know which is over valued and it is also impossible to predict when a ratio will return to a long term average. An extreme ratio can exist for years! For example, a high gold to sliver ratio could mean that gold is going fall, or perhaps silver is going to rise, or they are both going to fall, or rise, but at different rates. The possibilities are almost endless.

    Charting ratios may produce interesting and 'fun' charts to play with but they do not prove that a true correlation exists between the pairs. As an example, coffee prices and gold have exhibited a positive correlation for years but no one believes there could be any real connection beyond it being coincidental. In my opinion, studying ratios is a waste of time.
    Sep 1, 2015. 11:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: It's Go Time  [View article]
    I have some exposure to NG but have been holding off on buying more even though seasonal strength is a big factor as we enter into fall. I am thinking that we may get a sharp sell of to the $2.30 -$2.40 level before NG moves up to it's seasonal high.
    Aug 31, 2015. 03:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Still In A Bull Market  [View article]
    Thanks for the link. Interesting reading. It would seem that GDP numbers are what ever the government wants them to be. A multitude of 'adjustments' are now applied to any number that isn't sufficiently positive. It is exactly this kind of deception that contributes to the public's rising dis-trust of government.
    Aug 31, 2015. 03:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bears Are Confident U.S. Equities Will Now Downtrend -- But Are They Hogs Waiting To Get Slaughtered?  [View article]
    Corporate profits are on the decline and the stock market absolutely hates that state of affairs, particularly when the economy is supposed to be hunky-dory as evidenced by yummy GDP and unemployment numbers. I believe we are witnessing a sucker rally. I think I will hang on to my short positions and even add to them as the market rebounds and many weak shorts run to cover.
    Aug 31, 2015. 11:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Still In A Bull Market  [View article]
    The author had actually made a pretty good bear case but inexplicably decides to put a bullish spin on the facts. That 'wonderful' 3.7% GDP number, coupled with an equally wonderful very low unemployment rate of 5.3% doesn't seem to be on the FED's radar who have now 'suddenly' become fixated on the stock market gyrations. What the hell happened to "data dependent"? Who really believes the 3.7% GDP revision to be the real deal? Not even the FED does, otherwise, there would be no waffling about raising interest rates. Obviously, they can smell horse shit like everyone else.

    I hate to nit-pick but how does the author calculate this month's drop was 14%? From it's intraday top of 2134.71 of May 20 to the intraday bottom of 1867.08 of August 25, my calculator comes up with a 12.54% drop. Am I missing something?
    Aug 31, 2015. 10:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment