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  • 2014's Trash Could Be 2015's Treasure [View article]
    Eric, good article. Would you care to venture into uncharted waters and tell us what sectors you see as the big performers for 2015?
    Dec 27, 2014. 11:04 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fires Still Burning In The Oil Patch [View article]
    Just about every analyst is giving the Saudis full credit for the current weakness in crude oil pricing. Why? What, exactly, are the Saudi's 'doing' that is different from other oil producers? NOTHING! All are producing at levels not much different that what existed one year ago. It is the high cost American producers that will eventually be forced, by market pricing, to cut back on their elevated crude output. It is quite conceivable that imports from the Middle east will rise once again as American oil becomes increasing unprofitable. I don't $20 oil in the cards. The bankers will make sure that American production is scaled back and probably, very quickly.

    If the US economy is truly expanding as rapidly as indicated by the recently announced 5% increase in quarterly GDP, then increased demand should sop up much of excess crude production. However, if oil demand continues to slide in America, we can be reasonably certain that the government produced GDP numbers are nothing more than a complete lie and that something is very wrong with the economy.
    Dec 26, 2014. 11:27 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Share Repurchases, Stock Sales [View article]
    Large scale corporate buybacks have exposed the EPS as the rather useless indicator that it is. A corporation that buys back 10% of it's float could experience a 5% reduction in actual earnings while at the same time, there would an improvement in it's EPS. Smoke and mirrors.

    In my opinion. corporate buybacks are a 'gift' to high net worth shareholders (including their own executives) that allow those individuals to cash out at inflated prices without having to wait for the retail customer to step up to the plate, an event that may not occur for a very long time.

    Without the buybacks, how much lower would the S&P be right now and what's the probable outcome when the buybacks dry up?
    Dec 26, 2014. 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Coal A Dead Commodity? [View article]
    Coal prices are moving down. Expect more bankruptcies. I think Walter Energy is next.
    Dec 22, 2014. 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has QE3 Really Come To An End? [View article]
    Excellent reference! The CME would not be offering discounts to the Central Banks if there was no demand.
    Dec 21, 2014. 12:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Seems Like Hedge Funds Are Jumping Into The Gold Market [View article]
    This author's analysis appears to be badly flawed. Given that the dollar value of GDX was up 458 million and that of the triple leveraged NUGT was up less than 9 million, I fail to see how it can be concluded that the hedge funds and speculators are taking up a large short interest. In fact, large jump in the trading volume of any ETF is indicative is increased interest by all traders not necessarily those who are those of the hedge fund variety.

    Since all ETF sponsors create new units in order to meet demand, what evidence is there to indicate that there has been a significant increase in the short interest? None that I can tell from what has been presented in this article.

    The hedge funds have earned a well deserved reputation for being on the wrong side of major moves so I prefer to believe that the recent interest in the miners is the so called 'smart money' that is behind the surge in dollar value for GDX.

    Dec 20, 2014. 11:19 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For $20 A Barrel Oil [View article]
    $20 a barrel? Well anything is possible but with oil demand still on the rise worldwide, I think it's much more likely that we will see $150 in the not too distant future. The current excess supply is the biggest reason why oil has fallen but with only 1or 2 million barrels of excess production, I cannot see how $20 could be possible. India and China are huge oil importers and that is only going their demand is only going one way: UP!
    Dec 18, 2014. 01:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is How A Bear Market Starts [View article]
    The energy sector, even after the vicious sell off, remains in longer term bull market and will probably recover much quicker than gold. That said, if GE is even close to developing a commercially viable cold fusion power generator, all bets are off. The vast oil complex would be in deep trouble.

    The latest pop in the S&P doesn't smell right. It's almost time for the media to be yapping about how the markets are behaving badly because the QE punch bowl has been taken away and that QE4 is a must. I suspect the current joy will be short lived although from now till XMAS may be choppy. I feel much more comfortable being short the overall market than long. Time is now the bear's friend, if that bear is patient.
    Dec 18, 2014. 12:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Black Gold Loses Glitter [View article]
    I am not a Schiff fan due to his never ending 'the sky is falling' predictions, but this is a thoughtfully written article that makes several good points.
    Dec 16, 2014. 01:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Volatility In The UNG Continues [View article]
    This article is spot on. Good job. During the winter, production is not the issue, it's what left in storage and what are the temperatures projected to be in the populous NE of the US. A cold snap in December will not impact pricing nearly as much as a cold snap in March, especially is storage levels are below normal.
    Dec 16, 2014. 11:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Predicting, Especially The Future [View article]
    The current sell down should be all over by the end of December. Then, it will be time to buy.
    Dec 15, 2014. 09:19 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Signs That Gold May Be Headed Higher... Finally [View article]
    The cheapest gold to export would be the stuff laying around American bank vaults, just laying around and collecting dust.
    Dec 15, 2014. 02:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Black Bear Is Unleashed [View article]
    "Fundamentals, policy and sentiment are all working against oil moving forward." Sorry, Eric, but I think you are dead wrong in your assessment.

    Let's put things into perspective. Are the fundamentals for oil really that weak? No! The over supply of a mere one million barrels per day only exists because America has reduced it's imports thanks to strong domestic production. The rest of the world, with a few exceptions, are not so fortunate and are importing ever increasing larger quantities of oil (think India, China, Japan) Does anyone believe that the US is about to start exporting it's surplus to other countries on a large scale? Not a chance!

    Let's look at sentiment. It is a fact that the 'paper' market for oil is many times larger than the actual physical market. as is the case with gold. The paper speculators (reportedly, hedge funds) have been massively long crude for some time. Bullish sentiment was far to high. It was time to fleece the suckers and that is exactly why we are seeing with this rapid and dramatic fall in oil prices. The fall in oil prices is a direct result of the unwinding of long positions in the 'paper' oil market, which is many times larger that the actual physical market. Shock and awe is the most effective way of ensuring maximum losses to the speculators. The whole exercise should be short lived and then it will be time to fleece the paper shorts. The media is doing a crash job in trying to create a negative outlook for oil. What rubbish! Lets not forget that unlike the gold, oil is usually settled with someone taking delivery of the contracted oil. Expect a massive rally as the shorts scramble to cover. A rapid recovery is a short speculator's worst nightmare.

    It is unlikely that we will see low oil prices for an extended period of time. There is just not enough excess oil in the market to keep prices down for long. Even a small uptick in the world's economy would quickly push up demand sufficiently to soak up the current excess supply of 1 million barrels per day. OPEC will be in the driver's seat again.

    Some analysts have suggested that low oil prices are bad for the economy. That is just asinine. Economies will expand and oil demand will surge, as it always has. I expect we will see a V bottom and rapid recovery in oil prices. Beat up stocks of energy companies are currently a bargain and unlike gold, oil is used every day, by the billions of people on this planet. There is no 'scrap' market for oil and when it's used, it's gone forever. The only thing that could crush the oil market over the long term would be if a commercially viable cold fusion electrical generator were to hit the market. That is not likely to happen anytime soon.

    There are some real bargains in the oil sector right now. OPEC does not appear to worried and neither should we. The current stock market correction (which I believe has a ways to run yet) should be viewed as an opportunity to snap up beaten down oil related stocks and ETFs.
    Dec 14, 2014. 12:19 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Running Out Of Its Safe Haven Steam [View article]
    The European markets have topped out and are heading south. The VIX is moving up sharply. Investor sentiment is overly bullish. Gold refuses to collapse as predicted by so many, bouncing back from stop scooping sell offs. I think I've seen this movie before. If the S&P closes down today, as it looks like it may, Monday could be real ugly.

    The herd is expecting a Santa Claus rally. I've lost count of how many authors have mentioned what a great month December is for stocks.

    Holding steady and doing the opposite of what Mr Kaminis suggests, shorting stocks and buying gold.
    Dec 12, 2014. 12:16 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Will Remain Weak On Stronger Dollar [View article]
    Nothing new in this article. It is just a rehash of all the reasons why gold should be going down. The real story is despite all those logical reasons presented for gold to be weak, gold refuses to go down and stay down. The most recent sell-offs have been short lived with no follow through to the downside and end with sudden reversals back up. It will eventually follow the path of least resistance is obviously up.
    Dec 11, 2014. 10:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment