Seeking Alpha

eagle1003

eagle1003
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View eagle1003's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Midwinter Natural Gas Update [View article]
    Nate, you may want to re-read your own article. No where do you "state" that you would be "hesitant in initiating a short position" now. What you do state is: "I continue to be short natural gas" and in another sentence "in the long term, I am still short natural gas to below $2.50" That's crystal clear. You are short, period.

    BTW, I said nothing about November, December or January. That's not a good time to be long NG. Stocks are usually plentiful and no one is too worried about running short due to a little cold weather. That sentiment changes as the winter progresses. Seasoned traders of Natural Gas futures know that the months of February, March and sometimes even early April, are the best times for a possible spike in prices, that is, if there is a prolonged cold stretch and stocks are dwindling quickly from an average or better yet, a below average storage situation.

    I only just started buying in at 2.68 a few days ago and I really like the long term forecast for the eastern half of the US. COLD!
    Feb 11, 2015. 10:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Midwinter Natural Gas Update [View article]
    It makes me gag when someone talks about shorting NG at this time of year. The months of Feb thru April are usually the strongest period of the year for NG, particularly for the front two months.

    Knowing that the next several weeks are predicted to be abnormally cold for the populous northeast, why on earth would the author think this is a good time to be short? The possible gain is miniscule compared to the risk of NG spiking to $5 or $6 which at this time of year, is very possible.

    I went long at 2.68 and will buy more on any dips.
    Feb 11, 2015. 04:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Historical Correlations Of Oil To Coal Suggest We Won't Be Seeing A Return To $100 Oil Anytime Soon [View article]
    Keith: Right now, U.S. pricing for coal and natural gas are very much a domestic issue of over supply coupled with declining domestic demand. Crude oil is a somewhat different situation.

    For the first time in decades, American oil production is influencing crude pricing on a world wide basis. America is importing far less crude and as a consequence, the rest of the world is over supplied, a situation that will probably prove to be temporary.

    Yes, the US is currently experiencing downward pricing pressure for all three energy commodities of oil, coal and natural gas. This temporary correlation is unlikely to prevail for very long, given that crude oil prices are dependent on worldwide, rather than domestic demand. Let's not forget that crude pricing is still very much determined by a cartel that when it's members are unified, can price crude at whatever they feel is warranted just by reducing output.
    Feb 10, 2015. 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Demand For Stocks Dried Up? Part Deux [View article]
    It isn't just the US stock market that stubbornly remains at a unwarranted levels, most European markets have soared despite the threat of a Greek default and exit from the EU.

    While shorting these markets may seem to be the smart thing to so, that hasn't worked out so well for those who choose to believe that sanity must eventually return to the markets. I have known for many years that irrational markets can continue for a very long time but I have never, in my nearly 40 years of trading, seen anything like what we are witnessing now.
    Feb 10, 2015. 11:32 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Have A Ways To Go Before Natural Gas Rebounds [View article]
    The bottom looks like it's in. It didn't stay below $2.60 for very long, at $2.68 as of this post. I see a rapid climb to $3.25 in the cards. The east coast is forecast for some cold weather for several weeks. UGAZ is my choice for quick profits.
    Feb 10, 2015. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wary Of Gold Bugs, Bullish On Gold [View article]
    This author is the best we have seen on SA for a very long time. Very good article.
    Feb 9, 2015. 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Historical Correlations Of Oil To Coal Suggest We Won't Be Seeing A Return To $100 Oil Anytime Soon [View article]
    There is no logical reason for there to be any lasting correlation between coal and oil as they are used in entirely different situations. Coal is used primarily by power plants with many such plants having the capability to switch from coal to natural gas, not coal to oil. Gasoline is derived almost exclusively from oil so the price of coal would be irrelevant to the transportation sector.
    Feb 9, 2015. 01:06 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Have A Ways To Go Before Natural Gas Rebounds [View article]
    It is hard to get excited about NG given the warm weather as well as high production numbers but the long range forecast for the East is looking promising so a moderate position is warranted at prices below $2.60
    Feb 9, 2015. 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: Will War Soon Be Over? [View article]
    Sorry... I meant to say : Those lines pretty much sum up the tone of your article... CAUTION.... DON"T buy...yet.
    Feb 5, 2015. 07:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: Will War Soon Be Over? [View article]
    There were a massive number of shares of GDX and GDXJ that changed hands during the months of November and December. At the time, sentiment towards gold was quite negative with many calling for $1000 gold. One prominent contributor was repeatedly calling for 'one more low' (according to Fibonacci mumbo jumbo). Everyone missed the final low as it happened.

    What is important to note is that despite a very large number of gold ETF and individual mining shares that were put on the market by (discouraged) investors, the prices would not stay down, and in fact, rose. Gold itself climbed back from every sell off, and against the headwinds of a rising dollar. That is a clear indication that the smart money was in play while the dumb money was dithering (and continues to do so).

    Gold could suffer a drop into the low twelve hundreds and still be in the first leg of a new bull market. That would not be a surprise but it may never happen so I would not be cashing out profits at this stage. If gold does drop, it should be viewed as one last opportunity to get in cheap even though there will be plenty who will say it's headed to a $1000 or less and will wait some more.
    Feb 5, 2015. 07:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: Will War Soon Be Over? [View article]
    Actually, the vast majority of the public are not paying much attention to gold and they won't until gold accelerates up in headline grabbing fashion. The smart money is not waiting for things to get completely chaotic before they buy gold. They have been quietly buying for quite some time. Notice that gold's rise has been orderly and has not yet grabbed the attention of mainstream media.
    Feb 5, 2015. 07:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: Will War Soon Be Over? [View article]
    "In short, the war for gold is not over. But the end may be drawing close. And while the downtrend in the gold price still remains firmly intact" Those lines pretty much sum up the tone of your article......CAUTION..... buy...yet.
    Eric, this is the second article you have recently published in which the message has been much the same and that being: hold off on gold because the bear market isn't over yet.

    What would it take for you to conclude that the bear market is over and that it's time throw caution to the winds and buy gold? $1400? $1500? Would a few days of gapping up $50 or even a $100 do the trick? Just curious.
    Feb 5, 2015. 06:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Choosing Sides: Gold, Derivatives, And East Vs. West [View article]
    I wonder what kind of a plot the CIA is cooking up to have the democratically elected government of Greece replaced by one that is more 'western' friendly (as in allowing the bankers to further enslave the people with even more debt)?

    Perhaps Obama will send Kerry that way and he could show the Greeks some cool video footage of the smart bombs the Americans are so fond of using when they take out people they don't care for (and anyone else nearby).
    Feb 5, 2015. 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yet Another Useless Article About Gold Supply And Demand [View article]
    Rx: Are you unaware of new oil being stored in on site or nearby storage tanks? Not all new oil is necessarily sold immediately nor is all mined gold sold immediately. A look at any of the producer quarterly financials will indicate how much product is in inventory.
    Feb 4, 2015. 04:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yet Another Useless Article About Gold Supply And Demand [View article]
    The author claims that gold supply and demand are always in balance and that he cares not about gold mine production. So, how do the inventories of unsold gold, which at times, can be quite substantial, figure into that premise? We have a lot of unsold oil in storage right now and that has impacted the price in a big way. That fact is indisputable.

    Production of ANY commodity is always a concern to a futures trader because when supply and demand are not in balance, excess production becomes unsold inventory that puts downward pressure on pricing. Conversely, low inventories in a high demand scenario, pushes prices up.

    The author may want to re-think his argument and yes, I fully agree that this is another useless article.
    Feb 1, 2015. 12:06 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,683 Comments
2,531 Likes