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eagle1003

eagle1003
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  • The Black Bear Is Unleashed [View article]
    "Fundamentals, policy and sentiment are all working against oil moving forward." Sorry, Eric, but I think you are dead wrong in your assessment.

    Let's put things into perspective. Are the fundamentals for oil really that weak? No! The over supply of a mere one million barrels per day only exists because America has reduced it's imports thanks to strong domestic production. The rest of the world, with a few exceptions, are not so fortunate and are importing ever increasing larger quantities of oil (think India, China, Japan) Does anyone believe that the US is about to start exporting it's surplus to other countries on a large scale? Not a chance!

    Let's look at sentiment. It is a fact that the 'paper' market for oil is many times larger than the actual physical market. as is the case with gold. The paper speculators (reportedly, hedge funds) have been massively long crude for some time. Bullish sentiment was far to high. It was time to fleece the suckers and that is exactly why we are seeing with this rapid and dramatic fall in oil prices. The fall in oil prices is a direct result of the unwinding of long positions in the 'paper' oil market, which is many times larger that the actual physical market. Shock and awe is the most effective way of ensuring maximum losses to the speculators. The whole exercise should be short lived and then it will be time to fleece the paper shorts. The media is doing a crash job in trying to create a negative outlook for oil. What rubbish! Lets not forget that unlike the gold, oil is usually settled with someone taking delivery of the contracted oil. Expect a massive rally as the shorts scramble to cover. A rapid recovery is a short speculator's worst nightmare.

    It is unlikely that we will see low oil prices for an extended period of time. There is just not enough excess oil in the market to keep prices down for long. Even a small uptick in the world's economy would quickly push up demand sufficiently to soak up the current excess supply of 1 million barrels per day. OPEC will be in the driver's seat again.

    Some analysts have suggested that low oil prices are bad for the economy. That is just asinine. Economies will expand and oil demand will surge, as it always has. I expect we will see a V bottom and rapid recovery in oil prices. Beat up stocks of energy companies are currently a bargain and unlike gold, oil is used every day, by the billions of people on this planet. There is no 'scrap' market for oil and when it's used, it's gone forever. The only thing that could crush the oil market over the long term would be if a commercially viable cold fusion electrical generator were to hit the market. That is not likely to happen anytime soon.

    There are some real bargains in the oil sector right now. OPEC does not appear to worried and neither should we. The current stock market correction (which I believe has a ways to run yet) should be viewed as an opportunity to snap up beaten down oil related stocks and ETFs.
    Dec 14, 2014. 12:19 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Running Out Of Its Safe Haven Steam [View article]
    The European markets have topped out and are heading south. The VIX is moving up sharply. Investor sentiment is overly bullish. Gold refuses to collapse as predicted by so many, bouncing back from stop scooping sell offs. I think I've seen this movie before. If the S&P closes down today, as it looks like it may, Monday could be real ugly.

    The herd is expecting a Santa Claus rally. I've lost count of how many authors have mentioned what a great month December is for stocks.

    Holding steady and doing the opposite of what Mr Kaminis suggests, shorting stocks and buying gold.
    Dec 12, 2014. 12:16 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Will Remain Weak On Stronger Dollar [View article]
    Nothing new in this article. It is just a rehash of all the reasons why gold should be going down. The real story is despite all those logical reasons presented for gold to be weak, gold refuses to go down and stay down. The most recent sell-offs have been short lived with no follow through to the downside and end with sudden reversals back up. It will eventually follow the path of least resistance is obviously up.
    Dec 11, 2014. 10:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Gained On Capital Flows That Should Reverse [View article]
    Seasonal patterns for the S&P have not been working for the past three or four years. I wouldn't count on past performance to be any indication of where the markets are headed.

    As for gold, we have had two unexpected and strong daily rallies in the past seven trading days. Isn't it obvious that gold wants to go up?

    Shorting the S&P and buying silver and gold is the best play, exactly the opposite of what Mr Kaminis is advocating.
    Dec 10, 2014. 09:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Costco's Canadian Success Story [View article]
    Walmart is failing in the grocery area because they prefer to stock their shelves with the smallest sizes of a given product. probably to enhance profitability but end up losing sales in the process. Canadians love to buy the giant size of everything and that's where Costco shines.
    Dec 9, 2014. 11:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Junior Gold Mining Bear ETFs - Another Contrarian Signal? [View article]
    In order for gold stocks to move up, the herd has to be convinced that every rally will be short lived and that it is smart to buy inverse ETFs. Pro Shares decision to introduce inverse ETFs at this time is probably a good one. They could care less what direction the ETF moves, so long as there is volume and I suspect there will be plenty of that.
    Dec 9, 2014. 11:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Lower Gas Prices Do Not Necessarily Mean A Higher S&P [View article]
    An interesting and thought provoking article . Nothing ever seems to turn out as "expected". Perhaps that is due to the influence of banks and corporations that are deep in the concept of financial engineering and are into the markets with both feet. The retail customer would be wise to stay as far away from these crazy markets as possible.
    Dec 9, 2014. 02:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • December Starts Slow And Gets Hot, So Get Ready To Buy Stocks [View article]
    Yesterday you published an article that was bearish on gold, titled "Gold's Downward Direction Supported, Upside Catalysts Dormant" Ok, today, gold is screaming upward and is up $30 at the time of this comment, and looking promising on the charts. A long and proven pattern of getting it wrong at critical times, is intact.

    Today, you are calling for us to buy stocks, based on your assessment of a seasonal tendency for the markets to rise at this time of year. Great! I am loading up on the short side. now confident that we have some serious downside on the way. Thanks Marcos, and please do NOT stop publishing.
    Dec 9, 2014. 02:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gold Is Collapsing [View article]
    Markos, you are being whipsawed by the headlines of the day. The Chinese data has nothing to do with today's sharp move upward. Look deeper. It would seem that Putin has a plan to push back against US sanctions and it involves gold and the eventual end of the US dollar's status as the 'petrodollar'. Russia is buying gold, China is buying gold and now India has relaxed it's import restrictions on gold.

    The FED cannot suppress gold much longer via the gold paper market. I suspect that the current rally is going to be something more than bear market rally.
    Dec 1, 2014. 11:20 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Costco's Canadian Success Story [View article]
    I am Canadian and have a Costco membership. I disagree with the author when he concludes that Canadians are more price conscience than Americans. That's rubbish. Canadians are much more sensitive to quality, rather than price.

    I love to shop at Costco because the quality of the products tends to be higher than what is available at junk stores such as Walmart or Target. There is nothing 'cheap' about the products available at Costco. Prices are not 'low'. Also, unlike Walmart, Costco is continually bringing in new products and are frequent supporters of Canadian suppliers. Walmart, on the other hand, imports almost 100% of what they sell and quality went out the window a long time ago. When Canadians want quality anything, be it clothing, hardware, camping gear, electronics, tires, etc, the last places to consider would be Walmart or Target.

    I actually detest having to go to Walmart simply because the product line is almost always disappointing.
    Nov 29, 2014. 07:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Exuberance - Descriptive Superlatives Exhaustion Point Is Reached [View article]
    Very good article. Clearly, we are in uncharted waters with respect to the disconnect between stock markets and the real economy. The market would not be where it is today if it were not for the interventions of the central banks. The bubble is not retail driven.

    When will it end? I wish I knew for certain but I will continue to put on short positions knowing full well that the market could go considerably higher but confident that when the party ends, the crash will be sudden and unrelenting, as in 1929 style.
    Nov 27, 2014. 12:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Early Freeze Unearths Fear Of Another Harsh Winter [View article]
    So, in a nutshell, NG could go up if we have a harsh winter and could go down if it is mild winter. Good to know.
    Nov 25, 2014. 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Labor Market Is Gaining Momentum And Stronger Than You Think [View article]
    Obama has come through for 'folks'. They are either getting rich off the stock market or thriving on food stamps with brand new jobs the service industry. Soon folks will be stealing watermelon and strawberry picking jobs from the illegal immigrants and the official participation rate will soar. Best President, ever.
    Nov 17, 2014. 09:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Deflation Coming To America? [View article]
    Leo : Wage cuts and unemployment in Greece are the result of out of control government spending and the same has occurred in the US as a result of nearly three decades of the outsourcing of good paying American jobs. Neither situation is the result of deflation a neither will be the cause of deflation.

    The facts are that no one has seen anything actually going down in price, with the exception of the recent decline in gasoline. The truth is that anything you can name , be it rents, taxes, health care. dental care, clothing, tuition, food, transportation, etc, have all gone up, some SUBSTANTIALLY! You are welcome to name something where the cost has actually declined on a sustained basis. Anything?

    I am sick of authors who issue warnings of some imaginary deflation 'threat' when it is so obvious that inflation is the true threat to the middle class. What you are doing is assisting the government in it's quest to con the population into believing that money printing is necessary to stave off some non-existent deflation 'problem'. It is that money printing that has enriched only the wealthy. Perhaps that has been the plan right from the beginning.

    The American consumer will never see any real deflation but will continue to experience the rapid erosion of the purchasing power of their pay checks. What a sad state of affairs.
    Nov 15, 2014. 07:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Deflation Coming To America? [View article]
    There is no deflation at the retail level except for the price of gasoline which was over inflated to begin with. As it always does, gas will eventually climb back up to new highs. This nonsense talk of deflation is a smoke screen that attempts to hide the truth of rapidly inflating prices for goods that people buy on a regular basis, such as food and dry goods. In America, the packaging is getting smaller while the price goes up and the government tells the masses that inflation is 'too low'. Unbelievable.

    The only thing that is really going down is the quality of goods made available to the dumbed down American consumer. WalMart has become a junk store. Most Chinese made crap sold in the US is not even available in Europe because they won't buy it! Europeans (notably, Germany) have much higher standards for quality are willing to pay more for well made merchandise.
    Nov 15, 2014. 11:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,637 Comments
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