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eagle1003

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  • The Bear Market In Gold And Silver Miners Is Most Likely Over [View article]
    BiGBearShort: Very clever of you to point that out. You must make a ton of cash with that earth shaking insight.
    Feb 20, 2014. 11:21 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Sell In May? [View article]
    Cam, this is an excellent article. Well done!
    Apr 28, 2014. 10:42 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Economy: How Did We Get Here? Where Are We Headed? [View article]
    haiguike: You might want to read the rest of the article. You might learn something.
    Apr 23, 2013. 09:56 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Great Recession Is Over: Time To Back Up The Truck [View article]
    If you listen carefully, you can hear the bears gagging on this article. Positive commentary is the very last thing they want to hear after having been beaten up for nearly four years in row. They have done their best to talk the market down, to no avail, because someone has been driving it up! (A.K.A., the Smart Money)

    It is these kind of good news articles that we will be seeing much more of in the coming months. The nervous nellies will be convinced to dive into the market, afraid they are going to miss out if they continue to dither. They will be rewarded, at least for a while.

    I have seen this movie before and the ending is quite predictable but it ain't over yet.
    Jan 2, 2013. 12:34 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It Is Different - Americans Are More Pessimistic [View article]
    In my opinion, Atwater's conclusions make far more sense than the those of this author. The baby boomers are no longer interested in gambling with their retirement funds and want out, not into the markets. The next generation of investors are broke from having to raise their expensive offspring and won't have the excess cash to put into the markets for several years, if ever. Educating the brats will keep most of them underwater until they are wore out from working. (Isn't the 'Cash for an Education' a wonderful business model? Let's keep everyone in debt till they die. Some of those silly Europeans still provide free secondary education.)

    So who does that leave to keep pumping the markets? The banks, of course! It is the banks armed with QE money that has driven stocks to their current lofty levels and it would be a stretch to believe that they are going to continue to drive up the market indefinitely while waiting for the next generation of suckers to step up to the plate. At some point the dam is going to burst and we will be into a relentless bear market.

    Yes, the market could conceivably rise for some time yet but it would be wise to be very careful and not get too enthused about betting the farm on this casino. The time for that was two, three, four and five years ago, not now.
    Mar 7, 2014. 07:42 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Detailed Case To Short The S&P 500: This Time Isn't Different [View article]
    What has been rising you ask? Actually, almost everything except for some base metals. In the last three months : gold, platinum, palladium, sliver, corn, coffee, grains, cocoa, cotton, sugar, oil, natural gas, livestock, nickle are all up. Check it out yourself : http://bit.ly/9KLbQ3
    Mar 24, 2014. 12:36 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: The Buy Of The Decade [View article]
    Please tell us which stocks out of the thousands, are going to outperform natural gas over the next few years. I will buy them based on the crystal ball you have.
    Jun 15, 2012. 07:04 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Black Bear Is Unleashed [View article]
    "Fundamentals, policy and sentiment are all working against oil moving forward." Sorry, Eric, but I think you are dead wrong in your assessment.

    Let's put things into perspective. Are the fundamentals for oil really that weak? No! The over supply of a mere one million barrels per day only exists because America has reduced it's imports thanks to strong domestic production. The rest of the world, with a few exceptions, are not so fortunate and are importing ever increasing larger quantities of oil (think India, China, Japan) Does anyone believe that the US is about to start exporting it's surplus to other countries on a large scale? Not a chance!

    Let's look at sentiment. It is a fact that the 'paper' market for oil is many times larger than the actual physical market. as is the case with gold. The paper speculators (reportedly, hedge funds) have been massively long crude for some time. Bullish sentiment was far to high. It was time to fleece the suckers and that is exactly why we are seeing with this rapid and dramatic fall in oil prices. The fall in oil prices is a direct result of the unwinding of long positions in the 'paper' oil market, which is many times larger that the actual physical market. Shock and awe is the most effective way of ensuring maximum losses to the speculators. The whole exercise should be short lived and then it will be time to fleece the paper shorts. The media is doing a crash job in trying to create a negative outlook for oil. What rubbish! Lets not forget that unlike the gold, oil is usually settled with someone taking delivery of the contracted oil. Expect a massive rally as the shorts scramble to cover. A rapid recovery is a short speculator's worst nightmare.

    It is unlikely that we will see low oil prices for an extended period of time. There is just not enough excess oil in the market to keep prices down for long. Even a small uptick in the world's economy would quickly push up demand sufficiently to soak up the current excess supply of 1 million barrels per day. OPEC will be in the driver's seat again.

    Some analysts have suggested that low oil prices are bad for the economy. That is just asinine. Economies will expand and oil demand will surge, as it always has. I expect we will see a V bottom and rapid recovery in oil prices. Beat up stocks of energy companies are currently a bargain and unlike gold, oil is used every day, by the billions of people on this planet. There is no 'scrap' market for oil and when it's used, it's gone forever. The only thing that could crush the oil market over the long term would be if a commercially viable cold fusion electrical generator were to hit the market. That is not likely to happen anytime soon.

    There are some real bargains in the oil sector right now. OPEC does not appear to worried and neither should we. The current stock market correction (which I believe has a ways to run yet) should be viewed as an opportunity to snap up beaten down oil related stocks and ETFs.
    Dec 14, 2014. 12:19 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Bug Psychology Must Be Neutered [View article]
    I have come to the conclusion that it is next to impossible to play the gold market successfully, for two main reasons.

    A) The price of gold is not set by the normal commodity supply/demand equation. In fact, it is set by a paper market that consists directly of the commodity gold exchanges (such as the COMEX) , and by the allegedly gold backed ETFs. I say "allegedly" because the source of much of their gold 'holdings' are by way of leasing agreements with banks and other entities that allow for the same gold to leased to multiple clients. In most cases, no actual gold leaves their vaults. It's all electronic transfers. This arrangement does nothing for the miners and does not change real gold consumption one bit.

    B) Naked short selling of gold is not only allowed by the CME group (COMEX) but actively encouraged by way of special discounted fees to it's most revered clients, the FED, it's banking agents and other central banks, notably, that of the UK. This cosy arrangement allows the FED to keep gold prices on a leash and it is they that decide what the price will be, not the physical market.

    In my opinion, any kind of chart analysis is useless when the price is so aggressively controlled by just a few entities. Fundamentals are meaningless as is evidenced by the fact that gold goes down even while demand is robust. The Fed and other Central banks have unlimited dollars to carry on with business as usual and what have we got? Charts with resistance and support zones that seem to be anything but, and Fibonacci targets that are supposedly based on some sort of herd mentality. Really? It's laughable to suggest that the charts could possibly predict when and where the FED will intervene in order to preserve confidence in the US dollar. They will even allow gold to rally, on occasion, but are there to smack it down when they feel it's warranted.

    Yes, it is true the the fledgling physical gold exchanges of Asia may ultimately over throw the West's stranglehold on the gold's price, but when? That may not occur for years and even if it were to happen tomorrow, that doesn't mean gold would necessarily go to the moon. China is the big player in this scenario and it is not in their immediate interests to see gold shoot up while the American dollar collapses. They still have plenty invested in the health of the American economy and dollar.

    So, in conclusion, is there any point of trying to beat the FED at a game in which they have, by far, the best hand? Playing gold and it's miners is okay if one is very conservative with their cash but to go all in, based on the belief that eventually the dollar will crash and burn, would be just nuts.
    Nov 8, 2014. 03:02 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Ukraine Saves The Gold Market Again, But Can This Continue? [View article]
    The "official" rate of inflation may be key in explaining gold's recent strength that may continue well after things in Ukraine settle down. Gold is regarded by many as an inflation hedge and therefore desirable to own during inflationary times. That may or may not be true but it may account for gold's refusal to go down while inflation chews up our buying power at an accelerated pace.

    The reported inflation numbers are worse than a farce. There has been a deliberate and successful campaign of blatant deception to cover up the extent of the deterioration in the standard of living. Inflated prices of the necessities that we need to live, which include food, energy, health care and accommodations, has been creeping up and people are starting to notice that something is very wrong with what the government is telling us. The rate of inflation in the necessities is now probably closer 10% with food pushing 15% to 20%. Who gives a crap if that new Ipod or television has a clearer display and therefore should be counted as having 'lowered' inflation (even if the price hasn't moved)? It's horse manure and of no importance to anyone, except, of course, to your government who has a vested interest in keeping the official reported rate as low as they can get away with.
    May 4, 2014. 11:13 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Public Is Not In The Stock Market [View article]
    Too many would be investors are of the opinion that the stock market is manipulated by quasi-criminal organizations that include the traditional and investment banks. The perception is that these giant financial empires have the blessing and protection of those in the upper echelons of government. Many influential government advisers and appointees are former executives of the big banks and that doesn't sit well with a suspicious public. Even when bank wrong doing is exposed, nothing happens other then to have a 'deal' agreed upon, a fine is paid and then it's back to the business of fleecing the public at every possible opportunity. Nobody goes to jail other than the occasional unknown fall guy. The CEO's and executives appear to have immunity from ever being held accountable for their actions. This on going farce seriously damages the public's perception of the role the Banks play in the markets and accordingly, they avoid the markets that have every appearance of being 'rigged'.

    The nearly unlimited resources available to the big banks allow them to push markets in any direction they wish. Money is no object. Illegal short selling is no longer considered improper and is done on a regular basis with the regulatory bodies seemingly unwilling to do the job of regulating. It is now common knowledge that the FED is manipulating the markets with QE and how can you win against those guys? ( whether or not the FED is really intervening directly in the markets is not the issue..it's the perception that matters.)

    Then there is the high frequency trading computers whose sole purpose is to skim money from the honest investors. They should be banned, not encouraged by the exchanges since their very existence is undermining the confidence people feel about trading on a level playing field with other investors. You can't beat a high speed trading computer.

    Fundamentals don't mean a thing any more except when they can be used to lure a gullible public into buying when they should be selling. It's no wonder people would rather keep their money in the bank, safe from the vultures even if it means getting less than a 1% return. If they are really smart, they will keep it there or better yet, stuff it into a mattress!
    Dec 12, 2013. 10:12 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rally In Gold Continues, But For How Long? [View article]
    The rising dollar is diverting attention away from gold's underlying strength. While American investors dither, waiting for that "one more bottom" that so many SA contributors are calling for, the rest of the world is watching gold rise up in brisk fashion and with excellent chart action in what ever currency one can think of.

    The miners have also offered a clue as to what is coming by outperforming gold, by a wide margin, notably, during the in past week. Maybe we should be paying closer attention to what is the price action is telling us and less attention to the nay-sayers who think the rally can't last long.

    The author did present some COT reports to support his bearish case but let's not forget that unlike pork bellies, gold is traded around the world and on several other exchanges besides the COMEX. Unless the numbers are at very extreme values, the COT reports are of little consequence as the COMEX loses its relevance to the eastern exchanges that refuse to play the 'paper' gold scam.

    The smart money has been buying stocks, real estate and even farmland in an attempt turn cash into something that will remain valuable when things start coming apart during the next few years. Now it's gold's turn. When gold finally does break out, it will probably be a 'shock and awe' fashion that stuns the average investor into a paralysis while watching gold leap beyond reach. I am talking about the possibility of 100 dollar a day moves. The FED and it's fellow central banks are eventually going to lose their war on gold and the naked short selling will stop as the demand for the real gold accelerates.

    At the very least, I expect we will see gold testing it's all time highs before the end of 2015. All those who have been waiting so long for the right time to dive in, will be left in the dust. I don't intend be one of them.
    Jan 6, 2015. 11:36 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Running Out Of Its Safe Haven Steam [View article]
    The European markets have topped out and are heading south. The VIX is moving up sharply. Investor sentiment is overly bullish. Gold refuses to collapse as predicted by so many, bouncing back from stop scooping sell offs. I think I've seen this movie before. If the S&P closes down today, as it looks like it may, Monday could be real ugly.

    The herd is expecting a Santa Claus rally. I've lost count of how many authors have mentioned what a great month December is for stocks.

    Holding steady and doing the opposite of what Mr Kaminis suggests, shorting stocks and buying gold.
    Dec 12, 2014. 12:16 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Are Strange Things Happening With The Gold Held At The Gold ETFs [View article]
    This has to the most convoluted theory I have ever read that attempts. among other things, to explain the glaring contradiction between a gold demand that is supposedly booming (Chinese) while at the same time, price has been tanking for the past three years. The logic presented in the article is tough to follow. I think I will go with the simpler explanation that the Chinese demand isn't what it is trumped up to be or, if it is, demand has fallen elsewhere to such a degree that Chinese consumption is not sufficient to keep the price up.

    The implication that the gold miners are having 'trouble' supplying the gold market is highly questionable when one looks at how much already mined inventory is on the balance sheets of some producers. Many of the gold miners, such as Barrick, Eldorado, Kinross, Newmont, just to name a few and according to their latest financial statements, have plenty of inventory on hand and in some some cases, much higher than that of a year ago. Incidentally, high inventories, of anything, is usually not a good thing for future pricing. So, is there 'trouble' supplying the market? How so?

    It should also be noted that GLD does not produce gold nor warehouse it to any significant degree (unlike the Sprott ETF which does have it's gold on hand, and is redeemable to anyone). Also, what evidence is there that large holders of ETF paper, are actually taking delivery? And please note that conjecture is not evidence.
    Nov 9, 2014. 12:37 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Even The Council On Foreign Relations Is Saying It: Time To Rain Money On Main Street [View article]
    This idea is just as stupid as the QE program but it sure would keep the Democrats in the White House. Free money to the masses would invoke lots of "Praise the Lord" for dem good hearted folk in Washington.
    Sep 2, 2014. 10:48 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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