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  • Comcast Competes Surprisingly Well With Disney [View article]
    CMCSA is a better buy than DIS right now based on valuation and I own both.
    The big factor is that CMCSA owns the pipeline to the internet. That is a cash gushing asset and makes it less susceptible to cord cutting.
    Aug 18, 2015. 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa: Does The Company Have Room To Run? [View article]
    V and Ma are like twins joined at the hip.
    I wouldnt worry too much about lawsuits. The greatest threat to B and MA was during the Dubin/Dodd period.
    The credit card processors are vital to the US/World economy and provide a great service. The government knows that. Think of how cumbersome ot would be if they were not around. The ability to go to another country and purchase items seamlessly with the swipe of a card is incredibly convenient for both the customer and the foreign merchant.
    Aug 15, 2015. 10:45 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Colgate-Palmolive: Examining Outperformance [View article]
    PE expansion and contraction are some of the strongest determinants of total return. They are magnified during bull and bear markets.
    Aug 14, 2015. 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Buffett Blew It On IBM [View article]
    Sales growth is the raw material that powers earnings, cash flow etc.
    Aug 12, 2015. 08:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monster: Valuation Doesn't Make Sense, But Coca-Cola Provides Cushion [View article]
    The price of MNST got a bit ahead of itself. All growth stocks need to take a breather, allowing long term holders to take some profits and the Johnny come latelies to get of off the train. New buyers will come on board which will fuel the next run. Look at 10-15 year chart.

    MNST is interesting. If the market for energy drinks is saturated, then it is grossly overvalued. However, the international market is far from being saturated. You have India, China , Japan etc. Collectively, these are much bigger markets than the US. I predict within 10 years, we could see several things happening
    1) continued dominance of MNST and Redbull (essentially a duopoly)
    2) KO eventually buying out MNST
    3) Because of #2, PEP may be forced to buy Redbull, or more likely Rockstar

    Once the global market for energy drinks get saturated, the growth of MNST will slow. You could be right about your short near term, but long term, I think the trend is still up.
    Aug 11, 2015. 11:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola's Big Hedge Is Proving To Be Not So Great: Part II [View article]
    You have to ask yourself, why didn't MNST's price drop even more when growth was essentially zero? Not that I care about what analysts say, but a number of them have actually RAISED the price target to 170. This was AFTER the earnings report.
    If you've followed MNST long enough, you would know they had a similiar hiccup when they transitined from BUD to KO distibution a few years ago. What happens to productivity if a company transitions to a new computer system. It takes some time.
    The energy drink category is far from being saturated. It is growing.
    The reasons for the "bad" earnings include

    1) The KO distributors are not familiar with MNST products
    2) there was even lack of inventory
    3) some of the indenpendent (non-KO) distributors were not sure what their future was. So they were very cautious the past quarter.
    4) FX effect

    In areas of the world where the distribution is working out well, you are still seeing great growth. In Asia Pacific, they saw 49% increase in local currency. In Japan, they saw 66% growth in local currency.

    It may take awhile for the distribution to get streamlined, but there is definitely more growth ahead for this company.
    Aug 10, 2015. 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reporting Live From Disney World: The Sky Is Not Falling [View article]
    For every 1 dollar that Star Wars earns at the box office, it generates roughly 5 dollars more from other sources (merchandise, toys etc.). Since being bought by Disney, I expect that the number will be higher than 5 dollars when you consider the theme park effect etc. Lets put that number at 6 dollars.

    The Star Wars Force awakens is predicted to earn about 2-3 billion dollars at the box office alone. With 2 other Star Wars movies on the way, you could be looking at 6-9 billion dollars at the box office. If you consider the downstream effect, you could be looking at a much higher number (36-54 billion dollars over the next few years). This will be a nice cushion for DIS.
    Aug 10, 2015. 12:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reporting Live From Disney World: The Sky Is Not Falling [View article]
    The longer you hold a good company, the lower and lower your cost basis will get.
    Aug 7, 2015. 02:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oh Mickey! Disney Slower Growth In Critical Segment Is Cause For Concern [View article]
    I was wrong. NFLX will spend 5 billion in 2016 for original content. Who will they get content from? Content producers like DIS of course. The 5 billiion is almost as much as ESPN has to pay for its exclusivd sports right. The big difference is DIS makes a ton of money.
    Aug 7, 2015. 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oh Mickey! Disney Slower Growth In Critical Segment Is Cause For Concern [View article]
    Here are some things to think about when analyzing this industry

    1)NFLX will need to pay 3 billion dollars for content this year and 6 billion dollars from 2015 to 2018 to secure good content. For a company its size, that is alot of dough to dish out.
    2) NFLX will pay DIS 1 billion dollars for access to some of its content.
    3) It costs NFLX 100 million dollars to produce 1 season of Game of Thrones.
    4) ESPN has the rights to all the MAJOR sporting events ( the ones most sports fans are crazy about) for the next decade or so. In other words, they have complete control of Sport content for the next 10 years or so (when my son becomes an adult). He who has content has the power.
    5) it seems to me that ESPN is still golden goose for DIS. So why mess with it when it is generating good money still. It will continue doing so until that is no longer the case. Once that happens, DIS will make ESPN available on multiple platforms.....with DIS in control of course.
    6) Management is smart. They have 6-8 billion dollars they can use to gobble up shares. I feel they are waiting for the price to come down a little more so they can buy more.

    NFLX has no value if it lacks content. Content is king and NFLX and DIS both know that.
    Aug 6, 2015. 12:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • For Disney, The Best Is Yet To Come [View article]
    During a correction like this traders and speculators transfer their shares to long term owners. Thats how the patient accumulate wealth.
    Aug 5, 2015. 09:09 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Making All The Right Moves [View article]
    I was intrigued about whether Google+ could gain on FB. We now know our answer.
    Two reasons to I would bet on FB
    1) its moat is getting bigger. If google could not topple it, then not sure who can in the foreseeable future.
    2) its leader is still very young
    Aug 3, 2015. 01:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MasterCard: The Valuation Debate And Growth Opportunities [View article]
    Its interesting how MA's share price actually increased, when earnings were "mediocre" , especially when compared to V. But when you look under the hood, there is much more to like.

    The most meaningful number I see is the 15% increased in processed transaction fee that MA experienced. (it was actually better than the 8% that was reported for V)

    Many people are confused and worried about competition from Apple Pay, Google Wallet, Paypal, Samsung Wallet, Starbucks mobile payment etc. What many do not realize is that all of the payment systems have to rely to some degree on the rails provided by the card processors. V and MA have enormous power. As these new options proliferate, so will the card companies. I especially liked it when the CEO of MA on his earnings call said "rather than placing bets, we're being relatively agnostic in all these spaces...keep yourself open, play with all of them"
    Jul 30, 2015. 08:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon Is Growing Faster Than The Wal-Mart Online Business [View article]
    To find out why AMNZ is doing better than WMT, one only needs to look at their respective websites. AMNZ provides a much better shopping experience.
    If WMT ever gets its act together and concentrates its efforts on the e-commerce side, than it has a good chance to excel. However, WMT is like an aircraft carrier. It takes time to change direction. It also lacks a charismatic/unquestioned leader with the authority to make quick decisions.
    Contrast that with AMNZ. If Bezos has an idea, no matter how dumb or brilliant, it happens.
    Jul 30, 2015. 06:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PayPal: A Teenager's Perspective [View article]

    Its always nice to hear someone from the "young" crowd.
    Jul 29, 2015. 12:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment