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  • The Bull Market Is Over [View article]

    Good points. But its hard to pick a bottom. What if i sold but never drops below the tax level and starts going higher.
    If im able to live on $96,000 a year, then i dont think i would care what the price of JNJ was. I would also be able to sleep well at night. The $96,000 that i would get in dividends could grow to $188,000 in 10 years without me doing a single thing except sitting on by behind.
    Aug 21, 2015. 07:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bull Market Is Over [View article]
    Some perspective.

    The cost basis (dividend adjusted) for JNJ is $1.5/share bought in 1985. The price right now is $98/share. A $50,000 investment would be worth $3,200,000 right now. The dividends you would collect now would be $96,000/year. The longer you hold a great company through up and down markets, your cost basis drops particularly during down markets because of dividend reinvesting.

    In my portfolio, the cost basis is such that the tax hit of selling would be greater than a correction. But why sell when i know the intrinsic value of my companies will be significantly higher in the future.
    Aug 21, 2015. 12:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Charts That Show No U.S. Recession In Sight [View article]
    Is this the beginning of a crash? Who knows. But it is during times of fear that the seeds of future wealth is planted.
    Aug 21, 2015. 11:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bull Market Is Over [View article]
    Always focus on the earning power of individual companies, rather than macro trends or headlines. One will never invest. Over time, corrections (both major and minor) become a small blip on the radar.

    For regular investors of equities who think long term, corrections are a welcome sight.
    Aug 21, 2015. 11:11 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 9 Of 11 U.S. Cities Overrun With More Renters Than Homeowners [View article]
    The demand for housing will continue. Population growth is exponential whereas housing growth is linear.
    Aug 21, 2015. 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa: Does The Company Have Room To Run? [View article]
    Apple Pay, Samsumg Pay, Starbucks Payment and Paypal all use the Visa/MA to some degree. As mobile payments expand so will V and MA.
    Aug 21, 2015. 10:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In PayPal Or Square? [View article]
    Keep an eye on PYPL and CurrentC
    Aug 18, 2015. 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Square IPO: Strongly Consider An Allocation [View article]
    Square is reportedly losing money. Why invest in something that is losing money?
    Aug 18, 2015. 11:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comcast Competes Surprisingly Well With Disney [View article]
    CMCSA is a better buy than DIS right now based on valuation and I own both.
    The big factor is that CMCSA owns the pipeline to the internet. That is a cash gushing asset and makes it less susceptible to cord cutting.
    Aug 18, 2015. 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa: Does The Company Have Room To Run? [View article]
    V and Ma are like twins joined at the hip.
    I wouldnt worry too much about lawsuits. The greatest threat to B and MA was during the Dubin/Dodd period.
    The credit card processors are vital to the US/World economy and provide a great service. The government knows that. Think of how cumbersome ot would be if they were not around. The ability to go to another country and purchase items seamlessly with the swipe of a card is incredibly convenient for both the customer and the foreign merchant.
    Aug 15, 2015. 10:45 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Colgate-Palmolive: Examining Outperformance [View article]
    PE expansion and contraction are some of the strongest determinants of total return. They are magnified during bull and bear markets.
    Aug 14, 2015. 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Buffett Blew It On IBM [View article]
    Sales growth is the raw material that powers earnings, cash flow etc.
    Aug 12, 2015. 08:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Monster: Valuation Doesn't Make Sense, But Coca-Cola Provides Cushion [View article]
    The price of MNST got a bit ahead of itself. All growth stocks need to take a breather, allowing long term holders to take some profits and the Johnny come latelies to get of off the train. New buyers will come on board which will fuel the next run. Look at 10-15 year chart.

    MNST is interesting. If the market for energy drinks is saturated, then it is grossly overvalued. However, the international market is far from being saturated. You have India, China , Japan etc. Collectively, these are much bigger markets than the US. I predict within 10 years, we could see several things happening
    1) continued dominance of MNST and Redbull (essentially a duopoly)
    2) KO eventually buying out MNST
    3) Because of #2, PEP may be forced to buy Redbull, or more likely Rockstar

    Once the global market for energy drinks get saturated, the growth of MNST will slow. You could be right about your short near term, but long term, I think the trend is still up.
    Aug 11, 2015. 11:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola's Big Hedge Is Proving To Be Not So Great: Part II [View article]
    You have to ask yourself, why didn't MNST's price drop even more when growth was essentially zero? Not that I care about what analysts say, but a number of them have actually RAISED the price target to 170. This was AFTER the earnings report.
    If you've followed MNST long enough, you would know they had a similiar hiccup when they transitined from BUD to KO distibution a few years ago. What happens to productivity if a company transitions to a new computer system. It takes some time.
    The energy drink category is far from being saturated. It is growing.
    The reasons for the "bad" earnings include

    1) The KO distributors are not familiar with MNST products
    2) there was even lack of inventory
    3) some of the indenpendent (non-KO) distributors were not sure what their future was. So they were very cautious the past quarter.
    4) FX effect

    In areas of the world where the distribution is working out well, you are still seeing great growth. In Asia Pacific, they saw 49% increase in local currency. In Japan, they saw 66% growth in local currency.

    It may take awhile for the distribution to get streamlined, but there is definitely more growth ahead for this company.
    Aug 10, 2015. 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reporting Live From Disney World: The Sky Is Not Falling [View article]
    For every 1 dollar that Star Wars earns at the box office, it generates roughly 5 dollars more from other sources (merchandise, toys etc.). Since being bought by Disney, I expect that the number will be higher than 5 dollars when you consider the theme park effect etc. Lets put that number at 6 dollars.

    The Star Wars Force awakens is predicted to earn about 2-3 billion dollars at the box office alone. With 2 other Star Wars movies on the way, you could be looking at 6-9 billion dollars at the box office. If you consider the downstream effect, you could be looking at a much higher number (36-54 billion dollars over the next few years). This will be a nice cushion for DIS.
    Aug 10, 2015. 12:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment