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  • HLF: ON THE SUBJECT OF "RETAIL SALES"... [View instapost]
    Old Analyst
    I don't know why more of your articles are not posted on SA. Your articles and comments are very well thought put.
    There is very good evidence that the vast majority of hlf products end up consumed by a willing end user.
    Jul 29, 2014. 10:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Buy The Drop [View article]
    Yes. If you carefully look under the hood, hlf's performance was actually not too bad. How many
    companies can grow their top line by 7% in this economic environment in spite of the repeated attacks. The SGandA, higher tax rate and interest payments were significantly higher than last year. The higher interest payment is balanced by the 30 million saved on dividends. People who view today's earnings as confirmation of a pyramid scheme need to only look at Tupper
    earnings today, which in my opinion reported worse results. TUP by the way is not handicapped by the constant negative publicity. Interestingly, it's a company cited by Matt as being a legitimate company
    Jul 29, 2014. 12:57 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife ups EPS guidance despite lower revenue growth forecast after Q2 results [View news story]

    Take a look at TUP"s earnings report today, a company Matt Stewart views as a legitimate company.. Pretty ugly...quarterly profit fell 38%, EPS guidance was lowered. Negative net sales.
    When one compares HLF to TUP, it is remarkable how HLF has done the past quarter when one considers the negative publicity constantly surrounding it. HLF actually grew sales which TUP failed to do even without the weight of bad publicity. Sales is the raw fuel that ultimately powers earnings.
    Jul 28, 2014. 10:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Has Herbalife Kept The Game Going For So Long? [View article]
    6) Dr V had access to hlfs data.
    Jul 27, 2014. 10:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Has Herbalife Kept The Game Going For So Long? [View article]
    Some points to consider
    1) At the time the study was done, the controversy surrounding hlf was very intense. Im pretty sure Dr. V knew very well what was at stake.
    2) His study was done from the point of view of the FTC...not from the point of view of an investor, SEC,
    activist etc. He knew exactly what the FTC would be looking for
    3)He designed the study. Being a statisician, he probably understands the power and complexities of numbers
    4)His expertise is in the area of cosumer products and retail. Akman's track record shows that he has a very poor grasp of the cunsumer/retail sector.
    5) Now with these points in mind, who's analysis would you choose? Akman's or Dr V's.
    Jul 27, 2014. 10:53 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Has Herbalife Kept The Game Going For So Long? [View article]
    Many months ago, I believe Mr. Raven indirectly asked to join Ackman's team. I think one of the reasons he has been so busying writing articles against HLF was to somehow make a name for himself and hopefully to get a job at a big hedge fund, thereby going from the bottom of the pyramid to the top with his keyboard.

    I don't think Ackman has any more bullets in his gun to shoot down HLF. Any future presentations will lack the wow factor now. That is a good thing because there will be less noise and the FTC can do their thing without any distraction. (i.e. Ackman telling Price Water House how to do accounting....kind of like a plumber telling a surgeon how to take out an appendix).

    On the topic of HLF, a significant piece of information was the study carried out by Walter Vandaele. He had access to HLF's data base, he participated in the design and analysis of the study. Keep in mind, he was an advisor to the FTC. His expertise is in the area of business, finance commerce and statistics. He lives and breathes this stuff.
    In the HLF debate, if you strip away all the noise, emotions etc, it all boils down to the Lieberman/Nielsen and now Walter Vandaele's analysis of HLF. In my mind, they are all the information you need to come to a logical conclusion.
    The problem is when you are bombarded with so many articles and headlines, the average person on the street or an investor first looking into HLF will automatically assume HLF is an illegal pyramid....that is the path of least resistance in coming up with an opinion on HLF.
    Again, I think it is a good thing that the FTC is looking into HLF to clarify once and for all this HLF issue.

    Btw, I actually have your book The Art of Investing.
    If you haven't, you should read the Outsiders (which profiles Stiritz) and Billion Dollar Mistake which profiles how Ackman lost a ton of money on Target.
    Jul 26, 2014. 06:40 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Day Traders Evidence Skill? [View article]
    The term trader covers a lot of ground. They can be scalpers, swing traders, momentum traders etc.
    I agree. Very few make big money as traders. But the ones that do often make very big money.
    Jun 13, 2014. 11:11 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Advantage Ackman? [View article]
    Im usually not a fan of buybacks bc
    1) companies tend to buy shares when they are overvalued.
    2) they don't keep their word and actually never end up buying.

    However, in HLF's case, they are buying massive amount of stock at prices that are under intrinsic value. Meanwhile, the float is shrinking and the air is getting thinner.

    On another note, everyone is fixated on Venezuela. But i read recently that Amway, HLF , Mary Kay etc are lobbying the Chinese government to ease up on direct selling rules. The rules for direct selling in China are different from the US. Obviously, they are monitored more closely and very strict. They will shut you down if you are a pyramid scheme as evidenced by THOUSANDS that have been shut down already. Despite all the restrictions, HLF's sales have almost DOUBLED within the past year. What does that say? At the rate they're growing, future sales, earnings and cash flow growth shouldn't be a problem....more money to buy back shares.
    BTW NUS has been allowed to operate normally again after, I'm assuming a thorough investigation by the government. What does that say about the future of HLF in China?
    May 1, 2014. 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Concerning The Performance Of Individual Investors [View article]

    Good one!
    May 1, 2014. 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Advantage Ackman? [View article]
    Read the book The Outsiders. The two ceos who's companies repurchased the most shares were Singleton and Stiritz. Singleton repurchased an astounding 90%+ and Stiritz 60%. They did not use a straw to gulp down shares. They used a suction hose.
    May 1, 2014. 10:04 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Concerning The Performance Of Individual Investors [View article]

    What happened to your shades?
    May 1, 2014. 12:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It Is Hard To Win In Investing [View article]
    Why is it so hard to win in investing?
    Simple. Fear and greed.
    Fear prevents us from buying stocks when they are undervalued. Greed makes us buy stocks when they are overvalued.

    One last point. Patience. Most people cannot accept a stock not moving over a period of a few months let alone a few years.
    May 1, 2014. 12:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MasterCard Inc.: Read The Fine Print [View article]

    Looks like you're still holding MA. Now I call that buy and hold!
    Apr 30, 2014. 11:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife's Misleading And Bizarre Guidance, Don't Fall For It [View article]
    I just went over the earnings transcript and some of the filings.
    The measures HLF have taken to improve the company over the past year has been very impressive. I think it would be very hard to accuse them of being anything but a legitimate company, no matter how much regulators dig.
    In my opinion, this whole episode has actually made HLF a better company.
    Apr 29, 2014. 09:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Current Headwinds Fail To Bring Down Clorox; Stock Earns Bullish Rating [View article]
    People keep knocking down CLX for its negative equity. But it just keeps going
    Apr 28, 2014. 12:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment