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  • Should You Sell In May? [View article]
    Should we sell in May?
    It depends on valuation of the individual company and tax implications.
    Apr 28, 2014. 12:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Herbalife Is Heading To $65 [View article]

    You mentioned in one of your comments that not all MLMs are illegal. Can you tell me which ones are legal? Do you think Amway is a legal MLM?

    Apr 28, 2014. 12:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Herbalife Is Heading To $65 [View article]
    t"we are supposed to be objective"

    Here is a little test to see how perceptive you are

    a) he is a good guy
    b) he is 5 ft 10 inches.

    Which one is a subjective and which one is an objective observation. Now if you can get this straight, apply that reasoning to SandP/moodys and Nielsons.

    If you cant tell the difference, we"ll just move on.
    Apr 27, 2014. 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Herbalife Is Heading To $65 [View article]
    "That reminds me of S and P's AAA rating..."

    The job of S and P and Moody's is to do a SUBJECTIVE analysis of companies and come up with a rating that is HIGHLY SUBJECTIVE. Lieberman and Nielson provide data. You probably knew that already.
    Apr 27, 2014. 02:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Herbalife Is Heading To $65 [View article]
    Check out Nielson. Im sure you have aleady.
    So i guess that 63% and 87% are made up then. Those are very simple questions that are hard to manipulate. OK. We'll leave it at that.
    Apr 27, 2014. 01:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Herbalife Is Heading To $65 [View article]
    Much has been made about how little HLF distributors make.
    So I went back and took a look at the Lieberman survey where they asked former herbalife distributors some questions. (Remember, these are FORMER distributors)

    Here are some highlights
    1) 86% of FORMER herbalife distributors expected to earn either nothing or less than $1000 a month. This is contrary to what shorts say, that is most people join to strike it big. Undoubtedly, there are some who may have had very unrealistic expectations created by rogue distributors. But most join with low expectations.

    2) 4% of FORMER distributors joined for full time income, 23% joined for part-time income and 73% joined for product discount for personal use. So the vast majority of people joined either for part-time income or for personal use. Is it then so surprising that people who work part-time earn, umm, part-time money. If I were working part time, I don't expect to earn big bucks.

    Now much has been made about the Statement of Gross Compensation Paid by Herbalife. From my understanding, the numbers ONLY reflect what Herbalife paid out, and does not include the sales of products to others. What then would be the true take home income?

    3) This is the most fascinating data. 63% of FORMER distributors would recommend becoming an Herbalife Distributor and 87% would recommend HLF products to friends and family. That got me thinking...WHY IN THE WORLD would 63% of FORMER members ( remember, these are people who have exited the network) recommend becoming an herbalife distributor, let alone 87% recommend products from a company that just RIPPED you off. I don't know but does that sound like a company that is scamming from 99% of its members. What am I missing here?
    Considering that the job satisfaction in America is only around 45%, the 63% is very revealing.

    I don't trust everything any company says and certainly not people who have a vested financial interest in the outcome of a company. But Lieberman and Nielson are reputable companies whose very existence depends on gathering reliable data. I want data, not opinions or anecdotal stories to sway me.
    Apr 27, 2014. 12:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Growth Vs. Value Investing - Who Cares? [View article]
    The best stocks are growth stocks disguised as value stocks. The reason is value investors will provide the initial support and spark. Then growth investors will launch it into outer space. The territory covered during that time can be substantial.
    Apr 27, 2014. 01:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Do Americans Think Housing Is Such A Good Investment? [View article]
    A house is place to rest, sleep and raise a family. It does not compare to owning equities.
    Apr 27, 2014. 12:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Efficient Market Hypothesis, Fact Or Fiction? Part 4 [View article]
    I remember reading Bernstein's book, the The Four Pillars of Investing.
    There are always inefficiencies in the market. The reason most people do not outperform the market is that most do not have the conviction to take advantage of the inefficiencies when they occur. The do the opposite of the correct thing
    (they buy when prices are overvalued and sell when prices are undervalued)
    Apr 27, 2014. 12:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 30 And Under Portfolio: Q1 2014 Update [View article]
    I don't know too much about PBA, but I think the only time a single company should take that much of your portfolio is if
    1) you are an insider who knows everything about the company and its industry
    2) its a company with an insurmountable moat with a high margin of safety

    Obviously, the price increase in PBA made it become a higher percentage of your portfolio.
    Apr 27, 2014. 12:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Roommate Asked How To Start Investing - Here's What I Told Him [View article]
    Rather than telling him what to buy, perhaps you should teach him how to buy. Give a hungry man a fish and he'll go hungry again. Teach him how to fish and he'll never go hungry again.

    Read, read, read....
    Apr 26, 2014. 11:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite FTC Investigation, Double-Digit Sales Growth Expected From Herbalife [View article]
    Only two questions that matter

    1) Where do the majority of HLF products eventually end up?
    2) Does HLF have several million non-distributor customers in the US who buy the product?
    Apr 26, 2014. 03:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Analyzing Through The Speculation [View article]
    The PwC thing was quite funny and bizarre.
    It was analagous to a plumber telling a surgeon how to do surgery.
    Apr 23, 2014. 12:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Analyzing Through The Speculation [View article]
    Hi Ken
    "Ackman isnt looking for hlf=0"
    I tend to agree with you. But here's the thing. He touted 0 loud and clear and sadly, some have blindly followed him. They could end up being bag holders.
    Apr 22, 2014. 09:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Analyzing Through The Speculation [View article]
    Old Analyst,

    Those are good points. If I were a short who followed the bandwagon into this thing, I would be concerned.

    Meanwhile, as shares are getting transferred from weak longs to iron-grip hands that will not sell, the air in the room keeps getting thinner. This is magnified with every bad news. (Since HLF is approaching 60 again, I expect another bombshell.)
    Apr 21, 2014. 07:58 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment