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  • Bill Ackman's Campaign Is A Gift To The Long-Term Herbalife Shareholder [View article]
    I meant to say the fear surrounding tobacco stock was several folds higher than what hlf is facing right now. Really, no comparison.
    Aug 14, 2014. 06:19 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola buying 16.7% stake in Monster, transferring businesses [View news story]
    Good news for several reasons
    1) essentially, mnst now has "protection" since any lawsuit, assault on its business is an assault on Ko
    2)Mnst can now truly utilize the Coke freeway. The internatiinal expansion will accelerate
    3)Ko is essentially admitting that they cannot displace MNST. If you cant beat them, then buy them
    4) MNST is giving up products that really did not fit its business
    5) this was not a buyout. As MNST grows even more, the take out price will be even higher. KO may have to pay a heftier premium in the future when it realizes just how good MNST will be to its business.
    Aug 14, 2014. 06:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Key Tests For The True Dividend Growth Investor [View article]
    My advice to dividend investors. When you assemble your companies, make sure they are of high quality with an enduring moat. Once they are bought, promise yourself you will look at your portfolio only once every 7-10 years. By all means, however, count the monthly dividends
    Aug 14, 2014. 04:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Internet Monopoly I Want To Own Forever [View article]
    Yes. Goog is a very powerful company. The problem is size. To expect a 10 bagger from its current size would be difficult.
    Aug 14, 2014. 04:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Ackman's Campaign Is A Gift To The Long-Term Herbalife Shareholder [View article]
    Good article. I always look for 5-10 year time frame when i buy stocks. What happens in between is just noise. I initially bought HLF in the single digits (split adjusted) years before Akman came on the scene. I recently sold a good portion in the high 60's because frankly it was becoming too big of a portion of my portfolio. I still own enough shares to still be entertained though. I am not leveraged and do not own options and so im in no hurry.

    I remember the tobacco stocks. The fear was papable...nowwhere near the intensity hlf is experiencing right now. Fear surrounding a company is VERY good for long term returns.
    Aug 14, 2014. 04:27 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monster Beverage Corporation Beats Earnings By Sacrificing Future Sales [View article]
    I don't see why not since MNST does not have a monopoly on the energy market. Its Red Bull and MNST acting as a duopoly. If MNST does not get bought out, I see MNST growing very nicely internationally over the next 10 years.
    Aug 14, 2014. 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monster Beverage Corporation Beats Earnings By Sacrificing Future Sales [View article]
    Yes. Getting bought out. Ko should have done it when the market cap of MNST (Also known as HANS a few years ago) was only 400-500 million. Now you are looking at a 12 billion dollar company. I wouldnt mind a buyout at 25 billion +
    Aug 14, 2014. 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney Won't Be Intimidated As Amazon Flexes Its Online Muscle [View article]
    Good article.

    Disney is one beast you don't want to mess with.
    Aug 11, 2014. 08:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Reasons Why Warren Buffett Is Rich! [View article]
    The keys to Buffett's success?
    1) access to very cheap capital (insurance float)
    2) concentrated portfolio
    3) having conviction to buy when there is panic (not being afraid of 50% drops). Check out Shelby Davis
    4) staying within one's sphere of competence
    5) etc
    Aug 11, 2014. 12:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can The Regulators Afford Missing Herbalife? [View article]
    7"but the appearance of a pyramid type scheme is so persuasive here that it just has to be looked into"

    I agree that an FYI investigation is a good thing to clear things up. But until a decision is made what do you think about all the public bashing of a company that employs thousands of people? Many shorts have focused ONLY on the supposed failures. How about those who actually succeeded in the company? Undoubtedly there are success stories of distributors doing well and contributing to society. I have NO problem with the FTC doing something if HLF is deemed to be a pyramid. However, we must keep in kind that the extremely negative perception paid for by a short seller may be far different from the truth. Let the FTC do its thing without the circus-like atmosphere. It appears to me many shorts dont really care about the ultimate FTC decision.
    That brings up an interesting question for shorts. If HLF is deemed to be legal by the FTC, would you still want it shut down? As a long, i have no problem with the FTC taking action if it is illegal.
    Aug 3, 2014. 11:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AbbVie Shareholders Prevail [View article]
    A few years ago there was so much anxiety about ABT splitting into ABT and ABBV. I'm sure many sold ABBV because of the reliance on Humira etc.

    Now that some time has past, looking at the total returns since 1/2/13 (since the split)

    S and P 500- 36%
    ABT and ABBV (if both were held and not sold) - 47%

    The increase in dividend since the split ABT and ABBV (total)- 18%.
    Aug 3, 2014. 12:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Herbalife Recklessly Leveraged On China? [View article]
    Mr Raven stated "MLM companies are illegal in China" . This statement actually proves an important point about HLF. The rules regulating direct selling companies in China are more strict, monitored and actually enforced. Recently they have been tightening up. It appears you really need legitimate/real customers/end users to not get arrested by the government. Your business has to be a legitimate business Recently, the government seems to be clamping down even more. Which begs the question?

    1) why did hlf get approval to do business in more provinces not too long ago?
    2) why did they get approval to build a factory
    3) despite the very tight measures, why is the HLF business in China still growing?

    Is it possible that in China ,HLF is actually a legitimate business selling a real product with real end users?
    Aug 2, 2014. 01:38 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Herbalife Recklessly Leveraged On China? [View article]
    Mr Raven stated that they use the "same type of MLM business". This statment does not give me much confidence in his analysis of MLMs and Hlf in particular.

    Several years ago, the Chinese government shut down over 600 pyramid schemes over a 1 month period and made arrests in 14 provinces. If they think you are an illegal pyramid, they will shut you down. Why is it that hlf is still operating under the watchful eye of the Chinese gov and is in fact building a factory?
    Aug 1, 2014. 03:26 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Is The Top In On America Sales? [View article]
    Imagine this scenario. Lets say you are the CEO of MCdonalds. And lets say you a have someone wage a negative compaign saying that the meat in Mcdonalds is tainted (may or may not be true). This has been going on for the past 2 years...on the internet, news get a senator, you announce it to the world, you demand the FDA investigate even though the claims have yet to be proven. So the average person on the street sees all these headlines and without much thought says, yes the meat is tainted. I wonder what would happen to sales? The company must be fradulent and in danger of collapse. Perception is extremely important...however, perception can be very different from the truth.
    Given all the negative publicity, i think it is remarkable how HLF has held up financially. Just look at other companies reporting earnings. Based on one quarter's earnings, half the public companies reporting must be fradulent and are in danger of total collapse.

    It sure would be nice if people would allow the FTC to do its thing and render a decision without the constant bashing of the company. What if the FTC and the regulatory agencies totally clear the company of any wrongdoing? Or is that even a remote possibility?
    Jul 30, 2014. 12:50 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HLF: ON THE SUBJECT OF "RETAIL SALES"... [View instapost]
    Old Analyst
    I don't know why more of your articles are not posted on SA. Your articles and comments are very well thought put.
    There is very good evidence that the vast majority of hlf products end up consumed by a willing end user.
    Jul 29, 2014. 10:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment