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  • 'Buying Dividend Stocks For Income' Arguments Don't Make Sense [View article]
    I gave up on indexing awhile back. Stock picking is not dangerous if you know what you're doing. Beating the S and P is not that difficult. Investors on this thread, give me a thumbs up if you are beating the index. Give me two thumbs up if you are beating the index handily :)
    Aug 31, 2011. 05:45 PM | 42 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Think Your Dividend Yield Is High? A Warning for Income Investors [View article]

    What do you think is the likelihood that KO, PEP, ABT, JNJ and PG all cut their dividends? These companies are built to last. The only scenario where these companies may disappear is a nuclear war.
    Oct 5, 2010. 12:12 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ackman sends 52-pager to Herbalife auditor, Ramey says nothing material [View news story]
    Isn't Price Waterhouse an accounting firm?
    Its odd that someone would tell an accounting firm how to do accounting.
    Sep 11, 2013. 03:56 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Stock Market Bubble Is Forming Right Now [View article]
    Your analysis is very thorough and comprehensive as always. But to make money in the market, one can keep it simple.
    If an investor has extra money sitting around,where is that money going to go? Cash? Fixed income investments?
    My general impression is that right now the retail investor is thinking there is no way the market will go higher and promises he wont touch equities. Then as the market goes even higher, he gives in to his irrationality and actually buys at a HIGHER price. Thats when you see a bubble.
    Some things never change.
    May 3, 2013. 10:27 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Letter To John Hempton From A 'Clueless Short Seller' [View article]

    Seems complicated but when you consider the following, it is so easy to understand hlf. You do not need hundreds of slides. Where does the vast majority of the product end up? Here are some clues.
    1) 70 percent of hlf distributors are only in it for a discount with no intent to sell. In other words, they plan to consume the product. This is confirmed by both Lieberman and Nielsen survey companies.
    2) About 7 million people buy hlf products. Keep in mind, these are not part of the hlf network. This again, is from Lieberman and Nielsen.

    This tells me that it is company driven by product demand. If recruiting stopped, I doubt it would collapse. Sure the growth might slow but to suggest that the company would collapse is comical. The 7 million or so customers would still be consuming/buyingthe product.

    So back to the original critical question. Where does the vast majority of hlf product end up?
    Answer. To me its clear... In the stomach of a willing consumer.

    You dont need Ackman or Hlf's information to make a very logical/rational investmentl decision here. Quite simple actually.
    Mar 25, 2014. 02:57 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Start Of The 2012 End Game Is Upon Us [View article]
    Its always interesting when people make predictions not only about the direction of the stock market, but actual number targets. Who knows what will happen in Europe. I know one thing..wealth is made during times of uncertainty.
    Jun 25, 2012. 02:12 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: This Is Not A Dip, This Is What We Have Been Waiting For (Part 25) [View article]
    Some use TA. Some use fundamental analysis. Some use both. Its helpful to learn both. But if had to choose only one, it would befundamental analysisi. TA is the culmination of all the emotions built into a stock at a point in time. It is very powerful and dictates what a stock will do short term. Greed and fear, especially fear is what drives people to do irrational things. But long term, it is always the fundamentals that drive the direction of a stock. If you buy below intrinsic price with a margin of safety and sell when its grossly above intrinsic price, you will make money.
    Jun 2, 2012. 04:32 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends Matter a Lot, But Not More Than Proper Diversification [View article]
    I think most dividend investors would diversify by owning more than a few companies. Dividend investing is not infallible. However, its probably the easiest method I know of for an average investor. You are right, picking the right companies is important. Thats why most dividend investors diversify by holding more just one or two companies.
    Jun 12, 2011. 06:43 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Stocks Prove Buy and Hold Is Not Dead [View article]
    Perhaps you bought them when they were overvalued. There are some rules in investing that should not be ignored.
    #1 buy an outstanding company
    #2 never overpay.
    #3 don't forget rules #1 and #2
    Aug 4, 2010. 02:56 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The 4% Rule Becoming The 3% Rule? [View article]
    The implications are obvious. If one wants his or her money to not run out, one should do one of the following
    1)work longer
    2)get better returns
    3)withdraw less
    4)live a frugal life
    5)start dgi
    Feb 27, 2013. 09:51 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interview With Chuck Carnevale: Why Valuation Matters For Buy And Hold Dividend Investors [View article]
    Thanks guys for using this article to show that valuation is extremely important. Your graphs illustrate that there is a difference between intrinsic value and stock price. Those who know the distinction and can act with conviction despite what the crowd says will make money.
    Sep 25, 2011. 09:59 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Should Not Be Complacent About Dividend Champions [View article]
    Investors make a common mistake to assumr that because a company is no longer around it was a failure. MANY companies get bought out, spun off etc not always but often for very good profits. I owned csg when it split into dps and cby. Cby got bought out for a nice premium by kft. Dps is doing well since the split (cagr of 15%/ year since 2008). I have since enjoyed dr's dividends. I owned wwy (wrigley) when it got bought out by mars for a good premium. I owned bud when it bought out by inbev for a nice premium. Just because companies drop off the list does not mean loss of money.
    Speaking of dividends. One time dividends are very nice. Sjm paid out a 10% dividend one year. Bke has a bad habit of paying out 6-7% one time dividend for the past few years in addition to the regular 2% dividend. Shame on them. It should be called regular dividend. Its nice being on the receiving end. That said, dividend investing is not even my greatest passion in investing. Its finding value and or growth stocks that can become multibaggers in 3-4 years.
    However, for begining investors trying to find a way to invest, take it from me, the easiest,most reliable path to financial independance is without a doubt dividend investing. Repeat my last sentence again. I came to this conclusion on my own even before discovering SA, David K or David F etc. Nevertheless, it was a pleasant surprise to "meet" people who also came to the same conclusion.
    Sep 24, 2011. 05:00 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Investing: Why Some Investors Look Beyond Total Return [View article]
    I'm surprised you own JPM, but none of the other companies tagged for this article. Once Dimon and the current management team are gone, who knows what will happen to JPM. In the banking industry, there is a blow up every 15 years. If you have a sensible guy at the helm. you are in luck. If you have an overspender (ie Lewis), you are out of luck.
    Dividend investors will reap the benefits of total return. As long as the increasing dividend is supported by good earnings, total return will also go up.
    In dividend investing, there is an important inflection point. Ill call it the the "Golden Finish Line" . It is the point where your dividend income more than pays for ALL your expenses. As an investor, your job is to do what it takes to get to that line. Budget yourself so that you get to that line ASAP. Once you get there, you do not need to make another investing decision again. You can turn off the TV and not bother with stock prices as long as the companies you own are rock solid. You only need to make sure the companies you own are increasing their earnings and increasing the dividends.
    Sep 20, 2011. 12:20 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends Matter a Lot, But Not More Than Proper Diversification [View article]
    IHere is a simple example. Suppose a person is retired and has $3,000,000. Now suppose he puts his money in four, abt, ko pep. He would be getting about$ 90,000 in dividends this year. Lets say his all his expenses are met by $90,000 and he does not need to sell any of his shares. In 10 years, unless we have a nuclear war, I can guarantee you that the dividends will be between $180,000 to $210,000. Why would he need to shake and bake, rebalance, do jumping jacks to find other investments when this is certain. The person just needs to not obssess over the stock price. What will happen to the portfolio value? As earnings and dividends go up, the portfolio value will go up too bc the valuations on all four companies are reasonable right reasonable right now. This is the simplest example of dividend investing I can think of. You will never need an financial advisor once the dividends exceed your expenses
    Jun 12, 2011. 10:44 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Want to Seek 'Significant' Alpha? Look Beyond Dividend Stocks [View article]
    I'll chime in.
    The more you know about business in general (i'm not talking about investing), the better you will get at identifying potential multibaggers. Thats why i feel people who have started their own business, with the proper equity education will make outstanding investors. SA authors present many companies, but only a handful catch my eyes immediately.
    My general rules
    a)If you don't want to stress out, stick to dividend investing. This is the surest path to financial independence long term (Here's to you Robert)
    b) if you decide to explore growth investing, make sure you use money you will not need for at least 5-7 years because thats how long it could take for some multibaggers to unfold. The price may sit there for several years and then bang, it doubles.
    c) don't ever be in a situation where you need to sell these to pay your expenses. If you put yourself in a situation like that, thats just like overleveraging
    d) i'm pretty convinced that an experienced growth investor will outperform dividend investing. So why am i not doing it exclusively? Because i need dividends to pay my expenses. I also want fresh money coming in regularly to invest
    e)when i get profits from a multibagger, i allocate a certain percentage and permentaly depositi it in a buffett/type of company. The rest of the money i allocate in a new potential multibagger
    f)How do you know if its a multibagger? Often times you don't until after the fact. But with more experience, your hitting avg definetly goes up.
    g)be careful, because you could be playing with fire. I have seen many people try this and fail and never come back to investing in stocks. With dividend investing, you have comfort of TANGIBLE evidence of your efforts because of the growth of dividends.
    Apr 14, 2011. 12:21 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment