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vtorch

vtorch
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  • Unexpected Bullish Catalysts From Apple's Latest Event: Implications For The Stock [View article]
    $1M for a digital watch? Thanks but no thanks.
    Mar 10, 2015. 08:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hong Kong January Retail Sales: Grinding Through The Drought [View article]
    With the fight against corruption, an unwelcoming local populous (despite those who are creating trouble are the minority) and the gradual decline of the "fresh experience" factor, Hong Kong's tourism retail sector is undergoing structural change (January mainland tourist arrival only decline by 0.6% y-on-y).

    High spenders who frequent the cities for luxury and big ticket items have avoided Hong Kong. Now Hong Kong is seen as a destination to pick up cheap goods - such as baby formula, diapers, cosmetics - due to the lower tax regime.

    What does this mean for HK? This means that an important pillar of the economy is getting cut off at the knees. All these while the real estate prices rise to unchartered territory - which could not end well.

    What does this mean for investors? This means that high end retail businesses that depended on mainland tourists will be impacted. Some names include Chow Tai Fook (HKG:1929) and Luk Fook (HKG:0590).

    However, companies such as Sa Sa International (HKG:0178) and Bonjour Holdings (HKG:0653) are probably being thrown out together with the bath water, although these businesses are likely to benefit from the structural change and (eventually) more rationale rental environment.

    Note: SARS happened in 2003, not 2013.
    Mar 5, 2015. 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HSBC: Amazing Banking Franchise But Management Is Asleep [View article]
    I think you are being too kind to a bunch of incompetent fat cats.
    Mar 5, 2015. 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Kors: Undervalued And Has 25% Upside [View article]
    At its prime, COH had better product, emphasis on quality and more importantly, supply chain and profitability. KORS doesn't have any of that. What KORS has going for it is tailwinds, and COH will be a cap of where KORS will be.
    Mar 5, 2015. 04:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coach pushes modern luxury concept [View news story]
    Oh crap! Why is COH going to Europe? I have always thought that the strategy of focusing on the Americas and Asia, while bypassing Europe, where there are tons of luxury brands, is a sound idea.
    Mar 5, 2015. 04:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HSBC: Value Trap Or Value Buy? [View article]
    Agree that HSBC is a good long term holding - this is a company that will survive regardless of whether idiots are running it - which the case at the moment.
    Mar 5, 2015. 04:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HSBC: Value Trap Or Value Buy? [View article]
    Here's a WFT moment:

    Stuart Gulliver's 2015 salary: -5% y-on-y
    Pre-tax profit: -17% y-on-y
    No. of employees laid-off: >50,000

    Here's another WFT moment: Stuart probably lost more money and value on the bank than the combined salaries of these 50,000 employees.

    The right thing to do is to lay-off the incompetent senior management and claw back every single cent of their undeserved bonus.
    Feb 23, 2015. 11:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HSBC: Value Trap Or Value Buy? [View article]
    Problem with it this type of "value" is that it is trapped while incompetent and dead wood managers milk it for what it is worth. For example, the expat packages some of the incompetent (but in the "circle of trust") managers get moving from London to Hong Kong would make your jaw drop.

    The bank has one of the most diverse shareholding and isn't beholden to one geography (hence any one regulator) so there's nothing seemingly anyone can do to force the breakup. Case in point - HSBC has threaten the UK government many times about moving its headquarters to Hong Kong.
    Feb 23, 2015. 10:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • HSBC: Value Trap Or Value Buy? [View article]
    HSBC's problem was, and still is, fat cat management sitting in Canary Wharf, collecting ridiculous pay packages, while having little or absolutely nothing to do with the day to day business of the bank. It's about time regulators in UK, Hong Kong and China team up to breakup this ugly amalgamation of underperforming banks, which is clearly too big to manage for anyone.
    Feb 20, 2015. 04:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cook: Apple Watch to ship in April [View news story]
    This is the last hurray for Apple - there has not been any real innovative products from the company since the iPad. Core products are simply evolutionary rather than revolutionary (much like MS Office). And I suspect that the watch will be a flop due to the small screen and the lack of "wow" factor. In fact, less and less people wear watches everyday.

    Doesn't mean that the stock won't go up in the short term (and the next couple of new iPhones may still sell like hotcakes), but long term, likely candidate as a value trap.
    Jan 28, 2015. 06:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Buy On The Drop? [View article]
    I'd like to throw some number for argument. Express Script makes about USD8 billion of gross profit annually. On the other hand, Gilead's revenue is about USD11 billion. If we get rid of Express Script entirely, does it mean that patients potentially get to save 72% off their bills?

    I know it is not as simple as this because the entire drug market is much bigger than Gilead. What I am thinking about here is what is more morally hazardous and hurting the patient's pockets? High drug prices by the people who actually invent them by throwing lots of R&D money into it, or middlemen who exists purely because of the inefficiency and complexity of the healthcare system?
    Dec 23, 2014. 01:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile's (NQ) CEO Omar Khan On Q3 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    The fact that NQ has hired a rubber stamping foreign CEO to face investors is a tell-tale sign that something isn't right. Nothing against Khan, but NQ is clearly a Chinese company and the only reason why I can think of him being hired as CEO is because the real person in-charge doesn't want to deal with investors. I mean, Khan was Global Head of Mobile Centre of Excellence in Citi - hardly C-suite material - before they picked him to be CEO.
    Dec 19, 2014. 11:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Muni Meltdown That Wasn't [View article]
    I have commented several times here and elsewhere, Meredith Whitney is a one-shot pony that got lucky once. Now her hedge fund is in trouble. What is she doing managing a hedge fund in the first place?

    http://cnb.cx/16BnHGq
    Dec 19, 2014. 11:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Kors: Undervalued And Has 25% Upside [View article]
    Remind me why you are using net income as a proxy for cash flow?
    Aug 12, 2014. 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Coach Earnings [View article]
    Parent company for Gucci
    Aug 8, 2014. 09:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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