Seeking Alpha

SafisKusai

SafisKusai
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View SafisKusai's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Report: Facebook talking with Hollywood about Oculus deals [View news story]
    i would not put much weight towards this. As a manager at a movie theater i can attest that the hollywood distributors have begun backing away from 3D and are requiring us to take it less and less. There has been great pushback from consumers about 3D, they don't like the extra costs, and many don't feel it adds much especially movies where the effect has done post production. Added with the fact that 3D gives some migraines and eye strain its becoming a quickly dying fad. Oculus for movies seems like the same thing. And distributors would be smart to approach this slowly.
    Aug 8 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge -9.5% as Q2 disappoints, Global Hunter downgrades [View news story]
    fairly well known investment bank specializing in the resource sector
    Aug 7 03:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More rigs plus slowing capex could cause North Sea pain for offshore drillers [View news story]
    This first bullet point is worded so terribly... the article states that dayrates have been dropping around the world HOWEVER the North Sea has been the one bright spot (AS IN THE RATES HAVENT BEEN DROPPING) but may come under pressure in 2015.

    The way its written now it makes it sound like falling rates are a good thing...
    May 14 11:34 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warning shots fired from movie heavyweights on future of industry [View news story]
    I manage at a small town independent movie theater. I can honestly tell you, that Katzenberg is lost in this opinion of his. For one thing Dreamworks animation puts out usually 2 movie releases a year if that. Second Dreamworks doesn't distribute any of its own movies. 40% of sales go to theater operators and then on top of that Katzenberg has to split the 60 with a rival production company. He is nuts if he thinks the way he is doing it could ever be a growth industry. The other major distributors have been doing fantastic the past few years, and the last 5 years have been amazing for the industry as a whole. We have seen new players join the fray as well like Open Road (joint venture that AMC is a part of), Summit Entertainment joined the fray in 1997 with film financing and became a player in the past few years and was bought by Lionsgate, and Relativity Media has shown that it can compete with the majors when it was founded in 2004.

    At a small movie theater three weeks is all that matters. While larger chains will keep movies for longer because they can, that doesnt necessarily mean its the most profitable thing. Most contracts for movies with theater operators only last 3 to 4 weeks and for most movies a movie will only last for 1-2 before the attendance numbers are barren.

    Problems with torrents are largely a distributor and marketing problem. For example there are camera versions of the new film Neighbors that is supposed to release next week that are already all over the internet. It seems suspect to me that a movie that isnt even released anywhere yet would already have a camera version out, the only screenings have been premiers and critic screenings which seems like there is a lack of internal controls. Not to mention staggered worldwide openings begs for piracy.

    As for theater chain owners, I think most of business depends on what value you can offer to the customer and the customer service you can give, which is largely a location to location issue as well as dependent on your cost controls. Even with huge home theater systems lots of people want to get out of the house and feel like they are treating themselves to large formats and the theater experience.
    May 4 11:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology: Convertible Disaster [View article]
    @investor llew
    the way you put it is not necessarily true. Buying the bond and shorting the shares is a market neutral transaction. The short trade is covered by the convert bond, you technically carry the right to those shares so you arent necessarily on margin. Now, a retail brokerage probably won't be ok with that, but a larger broker likely would. Also technically its hard to say that it would be a 3% return, first there will be a cost to borrow the shares for the short trade so that will lower that 3% you talked about to maybe 1.5% BUT that isnt really true either because you are market neutral, the 2 trades cancel each other out and interest from the bonds is free money (literally) so its hard to put a return percentage on 0 money down.
    Apr 13 03:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Price Is Wrong: Greystone Logistics At 5X Earnings [View article]
    my buddy used to run a beer truck up in milwaukee. The pallets definitely make sense for beer. Beer deliveries don't go to warehouses, they go to bars, liquor stores, convenience stores, etc. The beer has to be unpacked, and broken down, brought down flights of stairs or into small refrigerated areas. These places are small and don't have room for pallets. The pallets end up getting taken back with the delivery.

    I can see the same thing happening with lots of types of businesses. Fast food for instance, places that are small but have a lot of turnover in product.

    I could easily see a deposit system being set up to return pallets as well, in much the same way as with co2 tanks or kegs. You get charged a small amount in addition to your order and you get recredited it when you return the pallets.
    Apr 3 07:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time Warner's Triple Play Package: The Multi-Bidder Contest For Time Warner Cable [View article]
    i've heard that charter might be more likely to go after cox or cablevision now instead of getting into a bidding war, what are your thoughts on this?
    Feb 22 01:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RealD Still Has Higher To Go [View article]
    I would caution those investing in this name for the long term. While things may look rosy at the moment i foresee many headwinds in the future.

    I am an assistant manager at a movie theater and we have direct access to distributors and rentraks numbers for the industry. Distributors have gone from demanding certain times and numbers of shows in 3D to now being incredibly lenient on when and how many shows of 3D if any at all we may show. To me this is telling that distributors are worried about upsetting customer bases who really do not like 3D. I hear customers all the time complain about 3D, and not just because its more expensive, but also because it strains many people's eyes especially on longer movies. The only movie last year where studios would not give us the movie unless they were majority 3D was Gravity. It also seems that studios are wisening up to the fact that unless 3D vastly improves the actual content of the movie it is just a gimmick and it seems to me that unless the movie is filmed with a 3D camera (or its animated) the cost of 3D is not worth it as post processed 3D films are seen as garbage and not enhancing in quality. At my theater 2D films vastly outgross their 3D counterparts.

    Another thing to think about is if you look into the recent prospectus from AMCs IPO you will see the theme of quality over quantity. The chain is doing a lot less expansion into new markets and instead just upgrading theaters and that doesnt necessarily mean upgrading ever single one to 3D, a big theme was reseating their theaters with larger leather comfortable lazboy type recliners that sacrifice 60% of the seating AKA less tickets sold AKA less money to realD. Growth seems like it could be muted sooner rather than later.
    Feb 8 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum Archive  [View instapost]
    so now both the US's border countries allow it, at least that's heartening for patients. easier to go to mexico or canada than fly to europe.
    Feb 4 09:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Charter talks with Comcast about joint Time Warner Cable bid [View news story]
    that is a tough call to say. i mean in all honesty siri and xm would be dead if malone hadnt come in and saved them during the crisis. It is a cheap premium for sure but holders have known that malone would likely do this for a long time
    Jan 15 08:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AOL to hand off Patch to JV, will own minority stake [View news story]
    He really is a great executive. The ignorance of patch which he had an emotional attachment to and the public firing were sad marks but they should definitely not overshadow what he has been able to accomplish. That article is really good, but sooo long. It is a good way to understand the mind of the man who is trying to rebuild and original internet company.
    Jan 15 08:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AOL to hand off Patch to JV, will own minority stake [View news story]
    Aol has been tidying its portfolio up and removing outdated and loss making operations while acquiring profitable and growing IP like HuffPo and adapt.tv

    Lots of speculation over a possible takeover by yahoo to shore up its core advertising businesses

    Patch sale has terms undisclosed but is an immediate positive as it plugs a leaky boat.
    Jan 15 04:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Closed-End Fund Forum [View instapost]
    In november the Eaton Vance Risk Managed Diversified Equity Fund (ETJ) announced they authorized a tender of 10% of the fund as long as the fund averaged over 9.75% in feb, march, april. Currently the fund has an over 10% discount to nav. In addition they have been buying shares in open market below nav.

    On top of all this it pays a 9.8% dividend paid monthly.

    Whopper has written about this before on his blog when he talked about the Special opportunity fund (SPE) and since then it seems like they've been working on initiatives to begin to get the nav under control.
    Jan 14 12:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liberty Media-Time Warner Cable talk starts to build again [View news story]
    i think this is supposed to say "before Comcast or Cox is able to beat it to the punch" since liberty owns a huge stake in charter...
    Jan 6 11:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SIRI: Horrible [View instapost]
    i wish i had it for the car. having to tune into am radio for bloomberg is really depressing... especially when you are trying to listen to an interesting interview and then drive over a bridge or under an overpass...
    Dec 19 12:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
233 Comments
227 Likes