Seeking Alpha

SafisKusai

SafisKusai
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View SafisKusai's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Micron Technology: Convertible Disaster [View article]
    @investor llew
    the way you put it is not necessarily true. Buying the bond and shorting the shares is a market neutral transaction. The short trade is covered by the convert bond, you technically carry the right to those shares so you arent necessarily on margin. Now, a retail brokerage probably won't be ok with that, but a larger broker likely would. Also technically its hard to say that it would be a 3% return, first there will be a cost to borrow the shares for the short trade so that will lower that 3% you talked about to maybe 1.5% BUT that isnt really true either because you are market neutral, the 2 trades cancel each other out and interest from the bonds is free money (literally) so its hard to put a return percentage on 0 money down.
    Apr 13 03:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Price Is Wrong: Greystone Logistics At 5X Earnings [View article]
    my buddy used to run a beer truck up in milwaukee. The pallets definitely make sense for beer. Beer deliveries don't go to warehouses, they go to bars, liquor stores, convenience stores, etc. The beer has to be unpacked, and broken down, brought down flights of stairs or into small refrigerated areas. These places are small and don't have room for pallets. The pallets end up getting taken back with the delivery.

    I can see the same thing happening with lots of types of businesses. Fast food for instance, places that are small but have a lot of turnover in product.

    I could easily see a deposit system being set up to return pallets as well, in much the same way as with co2 tanks or kegs. You get charged a small amount in addition to your order and you get recredited it when you return the pallets.
    Apr 3 07:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time Warner's Triple Play Package: The Multi-Bidder Contest For Time Warner Cable [View article]
    i've heard that charter might be more likely to go after cox or cablevision now instead of getting into a bidding war, what are your thoughts on this?
    Feb 22 01:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RealD Still Has Higher To Go [View article]
    I would caution those investing in this name for the long term. While things may look rosy at the moment i foresee many headwinds in the future.

    I am an assistant manager at a movie theater and we have direct access to distributors and rentraks numbers for the industry. Distributors have gone from demanding certain times and numbers of shows in 3D to now being incredibly lenient on when and how many shows of 3D if any at all we may show. To me this is telling that distributors are worried about upsetting customer bases who really do not like 3D. I hear customers all the time complain about 3D, and not just because its more expensive, but also because it strains many people's eyes especially on longer movies. The only movie last year where studios would not give us the movie unless they were majority 3D was Gravity. It also seems that studios are wisening up to the fact that unless 3D vastly improves the actual content of the movie it is just a gimmick and it seems to me that unless the movie is filmed with a 3D camera (or its animated) the cost of 3D is not worth it as post processed 3D films are seen as garbage and not enhancing in quality. At my theater 2D films vastly outgross their 3D counterparts.

    Another thing to think about is if you look into the recent prospectus from AMCs IPO you will see the theme of quality over quantity. The chain is doing a lot less expansion into new markets and instead just upgrading theaters and that doesnt necessarily mean upgrading ever single one to 3D, a big theme was reseating their theaters with larger leather comfortable lazboy type recliners that sacrifice 60% of the seating AKA less tickets sold AKA less money to realD. Growth seems like it could be muted sooner rather than later.
    Feb 8 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum [View instapost]
    so now both the US's border countries allow it, at least that's heartening for patients. easier to go to mexico or canada than fly to europe.
    Feb 4 09:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Charter talks with Comcast about joint Time Warner Cable bid [View news story]
    that is a tough call to say. i mean in all honesty siri and xm would be dead if malone hadnt come in and saved them during the crisis. It is a cheap premium for sure but holders have known that malone would likely do this for a long time
    Jan 15 08:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AOL to hand off Patch to JV, will own minority stake [View news story]
    He really is a great executive. The ignorance of patch which he had an emotional attachment to and the public firing were sad marks but they should definitely not overshadow what he has been able to accomplish. That article is really good, but sooo long. It is a good way to understand the mind of the man who is trying to rebuild and original internet company.
    Jan 15 08:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AOL to hand off Patch to JV, will own minority stake [View news story]
    Aol has been tidying its portfolio up and removing outdated and loss making operations while acquiring profitable and growing IP like HuffPo and adapt.tv

    Lots of speculation over a possible takeover by yahoo to shore up its core advertising businesses

    Patch sale has terms undisclosed but is an immediate positive as it plugs a leaky boat.
    Jan 15 04:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Closed-End Fund Forum [View instapost]
    In november the Eaton Vance Risk Managed Diversified Equity Fund (ETJ) announced they authorized a tender of 10% of the fund as long as the fund averaged over 9.75% in feb, march, april. Currently the fund has an over 10% discount to nav. In addition they have been buying shares in open market below nav.

    On top of all this it pays a 9.8% dividend paid monthly.

    Whopper has written about this before on his blog when he talked about the Special opportunity fund (SPE) and since then it seems like they've been working on initiatives to begin to get the nav under control.
    Jan 14 12:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liberty Media-Time Warner Cable talk starts to build again [View news story]
    i think this is supposed to say "before Comcast or Cox is able to beat it to the punch" since liberty owns a huge stake in charter...
    Jan 6 11:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SIRI: Horrible [View instapost]
    i wish i had it for the car. having to tune into am radio for bloomberg is really depressing... especially when you are trying to listen to an interesting interview and then drive over a bridge or under an overpass...
    Dec 19 12:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Supreme Court justice blocks last-ditch try to stop AMR-US deal [View news story]
    make planes more crowded? there is a only a certain number of seats on a plane and if you arent filling them you are asking for your airline to fail...
    Dec 8 01:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hunger Games Is A Huge Success, Yet Lions Gate Sells Off [View article]
    i definitely agree with what you say here. however will these positives move the needle? or are they just simply what is expected to continue bringing in the cashflow.

    Dreamworks goes through this same scenario all the time, and while several of their animations have underperformed this year and last, when they do have giant hits there is usually a massive selloff after results come in.
    Nov 28 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hunger Games Is A Huge Success, Yet Lions Gate Sells Off [View article]
    I think one reason for the selloff is that the "guaranteed money" is over with for awhile now. Catching fire was expected to make this much, and some analysts had actually expected $175mil opening.

    I also think you are putting too much bank on the future pipeline. Hercules: The Legend Begins doesnt have many well known faces that can carry a movie, and its being released in February which is a time for movies that the studios have no hopes for during peak business. Expendables will ride the last two movies but US numbers were down for the second number although worldwide numbers were up, it is becoming harder and harder for action movies to standup to American movie goers especially as seen by the failures this past year. Also on deck is a new YA (young adult) movie called Divergent which had a trailer on all Catching Fire movies, YA movies have been incredibly high risk for the studios... Beautiful Creatures, Mortal Instruments, and Ender's Game all failed to prove they could capture viewers minds and hold up a franchise (no less their budget). This is a real wild card for Lionsgate.

    While they do have a good television production studio some of their biggest productions like Mad Men are ending soon.

    I would be cautious with any future investment into Lionsgate. I do think the giant drop the other day was surprising and probably an overreaction, however i'm not sure there was much left in the way of gains going forward before the drop as most of the hunger games was baked in.
    Nov 27 08:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ackman set to launch new attack on Herbalife [View news story]
    "his fund has made hundreds of millions of paper losses"

    that statement is gross. its a fund that effects all the investors in his fund. NAV of the fund has to be updated every day mark to market. Paper Losses arent real. Losses are losses.
    Nov 22 06:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
229 Comments
212 Likes