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  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    looks like no odd lot provision, sadly.
    Apr 12, 2015. 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    I would typically sell vol and/or sell stock (if I'm already long stock) on unconfirmed deal rumors.
    Mar 30, 2015. 07:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    Thanks for the input & lots of good points. The only real anti-trust case seems to me to be the business servicing mid-large enterprises (Fortune 1000 companies that want one point of service). I found that's a pretty tiny % of revenues. I was trying to find the margins for this. Intuitively, it seems like that piece of the business should be lower gross margin with less SG&A overhead. But, in any case, even if forced to divest, doesn't seem like it would be a deal-killer, given the massive synergies.
    Mar 29, 2015. 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    Anyone here following / playing ODP/SPLS?

    HSR for ODP/SPLS expires Monday according to Bloomberg M&A Watch. If nothing happens Monday, does that mean there's no anti-trust case & this deal is a no-brainer? The spread is pretty chunky.
    Mar 27, 2015. 03:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Comcast-Time Warner: An Arbitrage Opportunity Worth Considering [View article]
    as experts on 13F filings, surely you're aware that if only you had waited just a couple more days you would have all the 13F filing data as of 12/31/14 instead of having to rely on relatively stale 9/30/2014 data.

    Look forward to your prompt update once the 12/31 data is available.
    Feb 16, 2015. 05:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar: Proving Its Critics Wrong [View article]
    the article you linked from August was the announcement of 21.0% efficiency. Last week FSLR announced achievement of 21.5% efficiency. I'd refer you all to their technology efficiency roadmap from Analyst Day for further information on how quickly these efficiency gains typically move from lab through to commercialization.
    Feb 8, 2015. 01:05 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is AT&T Harming DirecTV Shareholders? [View article]
    if you're in DTV stock you need to hedge by shorting T. Then you don't have to worry what T stock does. At this point the only way DTV holders get hurt is if the deal breaks. In that scenario DTV would probably be down >10%. That would really hurt.
    Dec 25, 2014. 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Benefits of falling oil prices outweigh harm to energy sector, Barclays says [View news story]
    The US is pretty unique compared to other countries b/c it taxes on 3 levels: federal, state & muni. Most of the studies which you refer to ignore the latter two categories, which almost double the total tax burden. If you add the 3 categories together, total tax revenues is $5.7 Tr, or 34% of GDP. This is not at the top of the list, but it is top quintile.
    Dec 19, 2014. 07:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Factors Driving Down First Solar [View article]
    zoltan, thanks for your response. I am honestly interested in researching this issue. I poked around the internet about the conference you mentioned above and it was not easy to find much information about the proceedings. Are there any specific papers or other info you can point me to on CdTe toxicity risk?

    The joint application by Brookhaven National Labs & DOE (strongly supported by National Renewable Energy Labs (NREL)) states that CdTe is insoluble and has a melting point above 1000 degrees C. I guess I just don't understand the pathway for humans to be directly exposed.
    Dec 6, 2014. 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Factors Driving Down First Solar [View article]

    The Kitakyushu plant in japan is CdTe, so your claim that "the technology is not allowed into the country" is simply false.

    I agree FSLR has little interest competing in China, where the margins are razor thin, local firms get preferential treatment & their technology might be stolen.

    You still think CdTe is toxic after NREL, Brookhaven National Labs, the European Chemicals Agency & the DOE have signed off on it? It's not soluble so it won't leach into the ground from rainwater, it's melting point is too high for fire to be a real risk & it is less toxic than either Cd or Te in isolation. Also, recycling recovers ~95% of the CdTe. See the wiki page or the following for some more details to get started on your research:
    Dec 5, 2014. 11:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG Was Broke [View article]
    if there was no bailout, AIG would have filed Chapter 11 (or 7). Shareholders would have received zero. If you waited for a shareholder vote, there wouldn't have been time for a bailout and shareholders would have also received zero. Equity holders don't have much of a choice in these circumstances.

    also, in reply to gymbo - they couldn't run AIG through bankruptcy, because then they wouldn't have been able to do a stealth bailout of goldman's CDS positions which showed huge paper profits with AIG as counterparty.
    Sep 30, 2014. 04:47 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EMC Corporation Annual Stock Valuation [View article]
    EMC has $7 Bn in LT Investments. While classified as "long-term" for accounting purposes so they don't have to flow mark-to-market through their income statement, it is in very liquid securities and could be almost instantly liquidated. Including this in current assets would push the current asset ratio >2 and make EMC pass your enterprising investor test.

    Sometimes it helps to read & understand the financial statements instead of doing things completely robotically & quantitatively.
    Sep 19, 2014. 08:08 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amira Nature Foods: Only In America (Under The JOBS Act) [View article]
    i haven't really been paying much attention to the markets for the last 15 months. how did this short call work out for you?
    Sep 10, 2014. 01:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore The Haters On Zoe's Kitchen [View article]
    i'm not a hater or a lover. i'm an analyst and a realist.

    chipotle & Panera basically had to invent the fast casual concept as they ramped up. they solved the business model. zoe's today is already benefiting from all those innovations & best practices discovered over the past 10 years.

    zoes management said their _mature_ stores are comping low single digits, so do the math and tell me how many years until they get anywhere close to the $AUV of chipotle or Panera?
    Sep 7, 2014. 08:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Revisit eBay And The 'Story' [View article]
    actually, it's a bit more complicated. ebay took the tax accounting hit but they don't take the cash tax hit until they actually spend the money. in theory they could reverse their decision, spend the money overseas, not pay taxes and reverse the accounting charge.
    Sep 6, 2014. 04:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment