Seeking Alpha

oldtimer125

oldtimer125
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View oldtimer125's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Artek Exploration: 50%-87% Upside Potential With Multiple Catalyst [View article]
    This stock is mostly held by fund managers and institutions and they continue to sell even though nat gas traditionally bottoms in August..........these guys are not that stupid so obviously, something is not right here....
    Aug 25 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bakken Gets Bigger - Likely A LOT Bigger [View article]
    A new junior with a significant land position over Bakken and Torquay in Southern Saskatchewan and adjacent to CPG and Canera which CPG recently bought for about 1 $billion:

    http://bit.ly/1k2GwI5
    Jul 27 06:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northern Dynasty asks court to stop EPA from blocking Pebble project [View news story]
    Inflamatory language by eco terrorists doesn't cut it. The EPA is riddled with activists linked with special interest groups who are against responsible development of any kind. Once Obama's term is over, and a republican president and government are in power, perhaps the country can get back to work.
    May 22 04:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Niska Gas Storage Partners' (NKA) CEO Bill Shea On Q4 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    can the new people broaden the mid stream base and build the next Keyera?
    May 8 02:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek: Rising Molybdenum Prices Increase Future Potential [View article]
    I believe the move in this stock is due to anticipation of a jump in moly demand to make pipe for major pipeline projects soon to get approval.....moly could easily get back to over $20/lb.....
    Apr 12 02:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If I Owned Kelt Exploration At The Current Levels, I Would Take The Money And Run [View article]
    Agreed, however, it seems the funds are backing KEL, supplying expensive equity capital, allowing KEL to cheaply buy production with development upside, allowing for accretive growth. KEL is as much about financial engineering as growth through the drill bit. Until and unless KEL stumbles, I won't bet against KEL. Only a broad market down turn will hurt it at this juncture. FYI, I am long RTK.
    Apr 2 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If I Owned Kelt Exploration At The Current Levels, I Would Take The Money And Run [View article]
    RTK's NAV is about $5.45...KEL's NAV is about $5.65.....I am sorely tempted to short KEL and go long RTK as a paired trade. Hard to do though as at least one national brokerage has put a $15 target on KEL....
    Apr 1 08:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Do More To Support Bid Price [View article]
    The problem is far beyond the SEC. The problem is the USA itself. Historical examples go back all the way to Dole Pineapple in Central America; the use of lumber tariffs to bankrupt Canadian lumber companies so US timber companies could come in and pick up assets at $.10 on the dollar; locking in Canadian oil by not allowing the XL pipeline to proceed, keeping Canada as a captive supplier of oil at deep discounts to world prices; and now turning a blind eye to US corporate collusion to undermine a Canadian company that owns the keys to wireless security for the entire free worlds' gov't, financial, banking and wireless commerce sectors. This has nothing to do with competition-it is all about US imperialism-plain and simple, and the sooner the Canadian gov't gets some back bone and acts to secure its own high tech sector and prevent a US corporation from buying Blackberry, and permit pipelines to its own coasts to access foreign markets other than the USA, the better. An example of Canadian gov't support would be for Canada to allow Blackberry to licence Certicom's elliptical encryption to the Chinese government, and provide the keys for a back door, similar to what India insisted on and demanded-that alone would be worth many many billions of dollars.
    Sep 26 01:23 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry closes near $8, two pension funds only want pieces [View news story]
    new bear target is $2.00/share
    Sep 25 05:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on BlackBerry: Fairfax wants $3B+ in debt financing, $1B in equity [View news story]
    Using Blackberry's cash to buy the company will result in a profit of billions after breaking the company up and selling the parts.....this makes leveraged buyout shysters in the US look like angels.....
    Sep 25 11:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry slides as doubts grow about Fairfax's offer [View news story]
    I believe Blackberry and Watsa have a partnering deal lined up, but after Fairfax takes Blackberry private.
    Sep 25 10:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Death Before Dishonor: 5 Reasons I'm Not Backing The BlackBerry Buyout Anymore [View article]
    Lets do some comparative math. The $4.7 billion buyout led by Fairfax Financial valued BB at an 80% discount to book value and 0.17x sales. This is the lowest valuation multiple on record for similar sized deals in North American telecommunication or technology industries, according to Bloomberg. The recent acquisition of Nokia’s handset business by Microsoft was valued at 0.42x trailing sales. It appears there is considerable upside potential should another bid or bids arrive......
    Sep 24 10:20 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry to be acquired by Fairfax-led consortium for $9/share [View news story]
    The Fairfax offer puts Blackberry into play. The big question is whether or not another better offer is made......attractive assets are:
    1. QNX (software for systems control)
    2. Paratek (wireless antennae technology)
    3. Certicom (elliptical encryption-best available on the planet)
    4. Global server system for wireless enterprise
    5. Patent portfolio
    6. Enterprise smart phone and MDM and security service business
    Sep 23 01:52 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry halted with news pending [View news story]
    The Fairfax offer of $9/share puts BBRY into play. Will another buyer come in? We shall see......
    Sep 23 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Q2 Results Are Not What They Seem To Be; We Deserve An Explanation [View article]
    Michael,
    I too focused on the recognized sales figure and recognition of sales from Q1 shipments.

    Regarding the layoffs and general comment on re focussing on enterprise and the 'prosumer', and cutting the line to 4 devices, I infer two possibilities:

    A: Normal course right sizing the company's g & a to revenues, or

    B: A deal in principle is done for the sale of the company, but for enterprise only plus patents and subsidiaries.

    In either case, there are many many positives:

    1. BBM cross platform (primarily a critical and necessary enhancement for BES10 enterprise communication) is being released cross platform this weekend. BB's partnership with Samsung to factory load BBM on new Android phones will at the very least, enhance BBM adoption and messaging market share. This should lead to monetization opportunities and may well attract smart phone users to Blackberry.

    2. Z30 rollout underway

    3. BB's subsidiary, Paratek's advanced anntenae technology deployed in Z30. If as advanced as claimed, this may lead to licencing to other smart phone makers, and could be critical for linking nodes in M2M for the coming "internet of everything" opportunities estmated to be worth $trillions.

    4. Shelf life for current RSA encryption estimated at 2 years max so BB's subsidiary Certicom's elliptical encryption should have huge upside for licencing beyond gov't and military to banking, financial sector, internet and wireless e-commerce

    5. QNX auto systems revenues estimated to grow to over $500 million by 2016

    6. OS10 consumer sales will continue to grow, but slower than desired by both Blackberry and investors

    Under scenario A, I believe shareholders will have to continue to be patient but will be rewarded once re structuring is complete.

    Under scenario B, for the sale of the company, the 6 points above make Blackberry attractive for any company with the gravitas to better position itself for gov't, enterprise, security, digital wireless auto systems and M2M. Contrary to current enterprise value as touted by short sellers, the purchase of Skype by Microsoft is a valid example of what may be paid versus current enterprise value. Blackberry would sell for a price well above the current share price. The two main conglomerates waging war over the wireless space are Microsoft and Google. I wouldn't be surprised if either of these two have zeroed in on Blackberry.
    Sep 21 10:28 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
127 Comments
567 Likes