watchthedownside

Bond Market Expects Inflation to Be Only 1.75%

The TIPs market in its limited history has arrived to the party just on time (not early), so I would not look to anything in terms of guidance here outside of the general trend.

The stock market and the treasury bond market historically have been very late to the party (looking all the way back to 1909).

The only group historically early to the party have been gold miners, and they are flashing caution in a big way (as it relates to future possible above-average inflation)

Gold Isn't Tracking Inflation as Well as Oil and TIPS

At this stage gold will track stocks until inflation is actually seen....gold is trading at its 40-yr median of 1/9.25 of DJIA.......in the 1973/74 period, gold behaved the same way until actual inflation was seen......historical correlations can break down temporarily, and my best estimate is that gold will not be a great safety net against a drop in stocks until inflation shows itself, or until gold gets too cheap and generates real long-term buying interest (not just the hyperinflation tomorrow crowd)

Why I'm Shifting Portfolio Sector Weightings

Just read from Barclays yesterday that cash reserves were at the same low level as July 2007......sounds like you are guessing on the whole cash thing

Chromcraft Revington May Have Bought Itself Some Time

"Excellent analysis in April?!?!"....it was awful, and you need new Analysts.....I bought all the way down to $0.20 and I am holding still......what was the worst thing that was going to happen to CRC when cash was low???.....the best news would have been that they went into bankruptcy liquidation so you could get 5x your money.......the analysis in April was awful and flawed.....I told you as such then, and I will repeat it again now.