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  • Climbing Back Up the Cliff After a Fall: TPGI

    Diversified real estate holder Thomas Properties Group Inc (NASDAQ: TPGI) really had an awful August, plummeting 28% this month as REITs and real estate companies really ‘took it on the chin’ during the broader markets decline. The question posed is can the stock make up that loss as the market recovers? I think it can and here’s why

    First of all to be clear; Thomas Properties Group Inc (NASDAQ: TPGI) is not a REIT. With that said, I think any real estate proposition is a Long-Term play and speculators need to stay on the sidelines. From a contrarian point of view, which I often like to take, I think real estate companies flow up with the market and when the bears come out; gold flows up, and now apparently copper and diamonds too.

    I like this Company and think it undervalued by at least $1 in share valuation currently. One thing I like is its diversity. If you look at its portfolio you’ll find Thomas Properties Group Inc (NASDAQ: TPGI) owns a lot of apartments and rentable space in addition to commercial properties and parking lots. Any homebuilder will tell you that for the foreseeable future: apartments are the way to go for new construction.

    The other thing I like is the regional ‘hedge’ the Company has going: its properties are in Pennsylvania, Texas, California, and Virginia. When one region suffers economically more than another, geographic diversity becomes the balancing factor to the bottom line. 

    The shares have traded most of 2011 between $3 and $4.25, with normal dips and spikes and there are very few short sellers to apply any downward pressure. The stock is currently trading in the $2.77 range after the broader market bloodletting and that’s a very ‘Attractive’ entry level price for new buyer. I’ sure faithful shareholders are aggregating to hedge their positions.

    The shares may not rise back to August first levels as fast as they fell, it may be an ‘immediate’ play, six weeks, but if the bulls can corner the markets in the months ahead, it will be good news for Thomas Properties Group Inc (NASDAQ: TPGI).

    Tags: TPGI
    Aug 09 4:30 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Is the Dip Over and the Rally On? TNGN, SUPG, SBCF

    The following three companies, Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida (NASDAQ: SBCF), SuperGen Inc (NASDAQ: SUPG), and Tengion Inc (NASDAQ: TNGN) have all posted gains in the last few sessions and appear ready to retake lost territory…

    … just a reminder; a little profit taking during a bounce back is normal…

    Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida started July climbing up from $1.50, past $1.65, testing $1.75, and then plummeting back to $1.50, before moving up again to its current $1.62 price. Quite the ride for Shareholders in the last five weeks

    A pretty good, but not stellar Q2 was the catalyst for all the motion. Well that’s all over now and the stock is on the move: Up. Considering its strength in testing $1.75, I think the rally is on and the shares, absent of any earth-shattering news, will retest that higher price and take, and hold it in the immediate term (6 weeks). Not many short sellers here to prevent some gains.

    At Tengion Inc, the regenerative organ and tissue concern, any move up to constitute is going to be in small, incremental steps, but that doesn’t negate a rally, only makes it much more subtle in form over time. The stock was trading in the $1 range both athe beginning of June and the beginning of July, its obvious ‘bottom’ and slowly, but steadily moved up in July to its current $1.34 range, a gain of 34% in four weeks.

    I think the rally is on at Tengion Inc. This was a $2.75 stock in May; it has a number to return too… Sr. Management changes in June and virtually no short sellers can sustain a rally and in the near term (3 mos) turn it into a surge.

    The story at SuperGen Inc is completely different… the pharmaceutical concern, with a long list of drug candidates in the pipeline, has topped a plateau as I see it and question is: can it hold its ground. The stock was trading in the $2.80 range in late June, and in some very choppy trading fraught with little dips and spikes, the stock has managed its way to its current $3.08 price, a gain of 10% in five weeks.

    With only the normal numbers of short sellers to apply any downward pressure and positive sales and EPS projections quarter over quarter; I think the rally is on here though it may be ‘two wins here and one loss there’ in weekly trading sessions.

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    Aug 02 4:16 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Two Out of Three Isn't Bad: CXM, GRAN, and AMRN Poked and Prodded
    The broad market's getting trashed, yet a handful of small cap stocks are still making gains. Gotta love it, though I'm still not sure I'd be buying blindly here. In any case, here's a better look at Bank of Granite Corporation (NASDAQ: GRAN), Amarin Corporation plc (NASDAQ: AMRN), and Cardium Therapeutics Inc. (AMEX: CXM), two of which are those winners I was talking about, and the third..... well....

    Let's just start with the bad news - it may have been a good run for Amarin Corporation plc, but the weight of all those gains has finally started to take a big toll. AMRN shares fell under their 100-day moving average line today, and simultaneously fell under a floor (orange) at $13.46.

    Were it not for the big gap between $8.80 and $14.20, we could almost dismiss what this chart was suggesting was in store here. There's just a little too much downside risk to ignore with Amarin Corporation now though, so we won't. The Fibonacci lines as well as prior floors/ceilings agree that there's a meaningful landing spot for AMRN around $8.00.

    As for today's amazing small cap stocks that are actually moving higher, let's start with Cardium Therapeutics Inc. This medical technology name is up by 9.2%, with plenty of room to run after getting trounces for the better part of the year. Oh, and if the name rings a bell, it may be because I pointed it out a high-odds reversal candidate last week after the selloff went berserk and this small cap made a sharp - too sharp - plunge to $0.20. Sure enough...

    If you didn't get in on my advice then though, don't sweat it. CXM is still going strong, and doing so on higher volume. And as the chart clearly shows, there's still room for Cardium Therapeutics shares to move before even the first headwind is hit. Don't overthink this one.
    Finally, though it's still not caught much attention for the move, Bank of Granite Corporation is actually one of the market's biggest winners from the universe of small cap stocks. GRAN is ahead by 19%, and yes, there's some big volume behind the move.

    That being said, this size move may be a little more heat than GRAN can handle... it's not exactly one of those 'regularly explosive' small caps with that kind of following. . In other words, you don't have to step in today. My only point was to point it out, since nobody else has. Ideally, Bank of Granite will consolidate around current prices and build a base from which to launch the move above $0.95.
    Tags: CXM, GRAN, AMRN
    Aug 02 4:07 PM | Link | Comment!
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