David M. Gordon's Comments

Lost Decade Indeed?

Mon, 04 Jan 2010 20:04:32 -0500

Thank you, brewer.

Alas, you point out a weakness in the SA system that arises because of its success: you have no idea, nor should you, that Amazon/AMZN and Apple/AAPL rank among my few core investment opportunities. I write to my regular readers on my blog.

I keep meaning to acknowledge this... deficiency in my original posts, but repeatedly forget. I will try harder. Thank you.

Lost Decade Indeed?

Mon, 04 Jan 2010 08:38:32 -0500

Excellent comments, Dollarhane. Thank you!

From Seeming Chaos to Order, All in One Stock Chart

Thu, 22 Oct 2009 09:22:26 -0400

Okay, so this morning, before the markets opened, McDonalds/MCD reported Q3 earnings -- ahead of expectations.

And so the stock does its little dance in pre-opening trades: up ~2% to ABOVE initial breakout level ($59.60) and even above its secondary breakout at $60. All that remains is a close above the crucial level at $61, and it's onwards and upwards in a resumption of its primary bull trend, as all periodicities kick into (upside) gear.

From Seeming Chaos to Order, All in One Stock Chart

Fri, 16 Oct 2009 13:50:31 -0400

The breakout above the symmetrical triangle (now at $60) nears. Although I doubt it will occur today, especially with the necessary big volume, it will happen soon.

Green Mountain, Google Could Surprise Investors Despite Volume Trends

Mon, 01 Jun 2009 15:55:07 -0400

Make that 3 cavils... I added one at the last moment! :-)

Green Mountain, Google Could Surprise Investors Despite Volume Trends

Mon, 01 Jun 2009 15:54:30 -0400

Excellent and insightful comments, sky2evan. I have only two cavils:
1) I did not intend to imply that I was about to buy more GMCR, but instead the other company that I do not name (on the included charts)
2) Yes, the Barron's analysis has slowed GMCR's ascent today. Wonder what the next 5-10 days will bring?
3) An investor must buy somewhere and somewhen. Rather than stand at the precipice of the current stock price (any stock) and looking back at how far it has come, look instead across the chasm of the unknown and unknowable future... Might the stock rise even higher?

Best wishes,
David

Apple Will Iron out the Wrinkles -- or the Irony

Mon, 25 Aug 2008 12:42:50 -0400

Wow, these are all great comments. Thank you, All!

In reply to Constable Odo, I add the following remarks:
Stocks build three readily discernible trends in all periodicities -- up, down, and sideways. (So tell me something I don't know, David!) When a stock trades sideways for ~9 months, as is the situation for Apple/AAPL, there usually is a good reason for it.

1) You could view the chart's technicals and claim there is a real war of wills between the bulls and bears. Which the bulls appear to be winning. Why? Because the lows are increasingly higher, and the highs kindasorta flattish. Consider the chart either as a symmetrical or ascending triangle. The breakout from both patterns, in either direction, historically proves powerful. Both patterns, though, typically prove to be a continuation pattern of the previous trend.

Or

2) The previous up trend was sufficiently powerful that the "P" grew to fast, and far in advance of the "E". So the stock hesitates, while the "E" catches up to the "P". Sometimes "P" declines, sometimes "T" (time) elapses, but the net effect is a much smaller PE Ratio.

And then after sufficient time and a low enough PE AND if the earnings continue to grow, and faster than Wall Street analysts guess, then the stock can resume its former upward march. Your typical growth stock story.

The analysis of stocks' trends is the province of chart reading, which is a subset of technical analysis. Combine a solid fundamental story with tremendously bullish technicals, and sail with the wind at your back.

My comments here are obvious truisms, I know (and I certainly to not mean to offend you), but as with everything, consistently successful results from investing is more difficult in practice than in abstract.

But that is what makes investing so much fun, as well as profitable!

Johnson & Johnson: The Type of Growth Stock I Favor

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 00:56:12 -0400

mollytjm,

I wonder whether Apple deserves the credit you grant it.

The company -- and certainly the stock -- do not qualify as one that would interest Buffett on a whole number of levels, not solely because it is a technology company. Too, the company makes a number of mis-steps of late, and their secretive ways have inhibited the company from apologizing for anything... until this mobilme fiasco spiraled completely out of control. Unfortunately, other disconcerting problems begin to crop up; the silver lining is that they arise due to the company's torrid pace of growth.

Johnson & Johnson: The Type of Growth Stock I Favor

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 00:51:25 -0400

David,

You are correct; I offered no comments in this post re Intuitive Surgical/ISRG. Wholly my error. Although my blog is littered with posts re the company and the stock, I keep forgetting that my posts that Seeking Alpha aggregates reach many readers unfamilar with my previous comments. I will figure out how to correct this issue.

btw, congratulations on a very nice and informative (and informed!) blog of your own.

Best wishes,

Embracing the Market's Volatility: My Investment Grocery List

Tue, 20 Feb 2007 08:39:30 -0500

Good morning, John,

Excellent questions; thank you! In fact, each reminds me that I must always address the newer readers who lack familiarity with my earlier posts.

Yes, 30+ stocks replicates an index, and, yes, there is no "edge" to be had there. However, the list is for my readers who have their own investment objectives and risk tolerances: big cap or small cap, growth or value, high price or low price, trending higher or trending lower, and across the wide spectrum of sectors and groups. So I make the list as complete as possible and thus allow the readers to make their own decisions based on which opportunities resonate for them. I myself limit my portfolio's holdings to 9 names -- this number has proved optimal in study after study -- once long 9 positions, a new position must be arguably compelling as it must displace one already long in my portfolio.

I am not one to shower disrespect on Warren Buffett: he is smarter than me and has more money as well! Nor do I intend to sound dismissive of hedging by terming it a ploy. No, I am a plain vanilla investor; go long (only), make money, and when the market is in a mood not to cooperate, take my money and seek balance in my life. Tthat balance expresses itself via my relationships with other people, my incessant travels, and by my abiding interest in photography. At those moments, I have nary a care in the world, and find that I pursue the ultimate hedging "ploy" -- living life.

Thank you again,
David

Expecting a Big Move in Isis Pharma

Thu, 11 Jan 2007 11:12:15 -0500

Thank you for your comments, Jon Jon.

The mention of "301012" in fact is made by The Medical Technology Stock Letter, not me. I added his thoughts in the comments area of my blog for added depth of understanding.

It seems you know this stuff very well indeed; My regular readers would appreciate it were you to add your comments -- and any other remarks -- as a reply on my blog. Certainly, I would!

Best wishes,
David