Ivan Kitov's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/434499/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1078911/comments?source=feed#comment-12936831 12936831 You may take a look at my papers:
http://bit.ly/WJJk0q
http://bit.ly/VpvB8f]]> Mon, 24 Dec 2012 02:54:36 -0500 You may take a look at my papers:
http://bit.ly/WJJk0q
http://bit.ly/VpvB8f]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1066161/comments?source=feed#comment-12646841 12646841 http://seekingalpha.co.... Real GDP is driven by a specific age population and the 2010 census indicates a possibility of recession in 2013 - http://seekingalpha.co.... This suggests the index to go down in 2013 as the blue curve in Figure 1 shows.
I do not find standard market terminology useful: "bear market" means nothing for me. The market is not driven by random decisions. It is driven by the age pyramid. ]]> Sun, 16 Dec 2012 02:54:06 -0500 http://seekingalpha.co.... Real GDP is driven by a specific age population and the 2010 census indicates a possibility of recession in 2013 - http://seekingalpha.co.... This suggests the index to go down in 2013 as the blue curve in Figure 1 shows.
I do not find standard market terminology useful: "bear market" means nothing for me. The market is not driven by random decisions. It is driven by the age pyramid. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1066161/comments?source=feed#comment-12630781 12630781 Sat, 15 Dec 2012 09:30:19 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1053631/comments?source=feed#comment-12588841 12588841 Fri, 14 Dec 2012 02:22:11 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1053631/comments?source=feed#comment-12557471 12557471 Thu, 13 Dec 2012 09:22:38 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1053631/comments?source=feed#comment-12520951 12520951 http://1.usa.gov/SR8ndi ]]> Wed, 12 Dec 2012 10:57:06 -0500 http://1.usa.gov/SR8ndi ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1053631/comments?source=feed#comment-12475331 12475331 Tue, 11 Dec 2012 09:21:21 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1053631/comments?source=feed#comment-12446701 12446701
Kitov, I., Kitov, O., (2008). The Driving Force of Labor Force Participation in Developed Countries, Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. III(3(5)_Fall), pp. 203-222. http://bit.ly/1238tTX]]> Mon, 10 Dec 2012 12:58:25 -0500
Kitov, I., Kitov, O., (2008). The Driving Force of Labor Force Participation in Developed Countries, Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. III(3(5)_Fall), pp. 203-222. http://bit.ly/1238tTX]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/958781/comments?source=feed#comment-12410911 12410911 Sun, 09 Dec 2012 03:08:25 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1042341/comments?source=feed#comment-12264581 12264581 Wed, 05 Dec 2012 05:41:39 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1042341/comments?source=feed#comment-12221301 12221301 Tue, 04 Dec 2012 02:08:01 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1042341/comments?source=feed#comment-12221261 12221261 Tue, 04 Dec 2012 01:59:02 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1021141/comments?source=feed#comment-11873711 11873711 Thu, 22 Nov 2012 01:56:15 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1007181/comments?source=feed#comment-11862541 11862541 http://amzn.to/wmO6rS
but this is beyond the interest of the broader readership on SA and editors request not to give too many stat and math details. ]]> Wed, 21 Nov 2012 16:05:18 -0500 http://amzn.to/wmO6rS
but this is beyond the interest of the broader readership on SA and editors request not to give too many stat and math details. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1021141/comments?source=feed#comment-11835671 11835671 Wed, 21 Nov 2012 02:07:06 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1018491/comments?source=feed#comment-11822261 11822261 Tue, 20 Nov 2012 16:03:09 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1018491/comments?source=feed#comment-11795021 11795021
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We predicted the turn in oil price in 2008, when it did not reach the peak yet. In May, we had the same long-term view and expected the price to fall. However, we always stress that oil price is highly volatile and may fluctuate around the long term trend that aloows for additional profit - http://seekingalpha.co...
Currently, it is definitely on a downward short-term trend. It is not the best time to buy stocks with a positive link to oil price.]]> Tue, 06 Nov 2012 10:08:17 -0500 http://seekingalpha.co... was a week ago and showed that we were righ with the S&P 500.
We predicted the turn in oil price in 2008, when it did not reach the peak yet. In May, we had the same long-term view and expected the price to fall. However, we always stress that oil price is highly volatile and may fluctuate around the long term trend that aloows for additional profit - http://seekingalpha.co...
Currently, it is definitely on a downward short-term trend. It is not the best time to buy stocks with a positive link to oil price.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/957521/comments?source=feed#comment-11218631 11218631 http://bit.ly/Ua1JlY
Theoretically, when extrapolated to very high and very low rate of GDP growth the rate of unemployment may reach zero or 100% (no work when no economy). In reality, I would not expect so high or low rates. In Spain, unemployment may touch 1/3 of labor force in 2013, however.]]> Sun, 04 Nov 2012 11:31:35 -0500 http://bit.ly/Ua1JlY
Theoretically, when extrapolated to very high and very low rate of GDP growth the rate of unemployment may reach zero or 100% (no work when no economy). In reality, I would not expect so high or low rates. In Spain, unemployment may touch 1/3 of labor force in 2013, however.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/957521/comments?source=feed#comment-10998521 10998521 http://1.usa.gov/Rgs0Zn :

For each person in the sample 15 years old and over, the CPS asks questions on the amount of money income received in the preceding calendar year from each of the following sources:

1.Earnings
2.Unemployment compensation
3.Workers’ compensation
4.Social security
5.Supplemental security income
6.Public assistance
7.Veterans’ payments
8.Survivor benefits
9.Disability benefits
10.Pension or retirement income
11.Interest
12.Dividends
13.Rents, royalties, and estates and trusts
14.Educational assistance
15.Alimony
16.Child support
17.Financial assistance from outside of the household
18.Other income

It should be noted that although the income statistics refer to receipts during the preceding calendar year, the demographic characteristics, such as age, labor force status, and family or household composition, are as of the survey date. The income of the family/household does not include amounts received by people who were members during all or part of the income year if these people no longer resided in the family/household at the time of interview. However, the CPS collects income data for people who are current residents but did not reside in the household during the income year.

Data on consumer income collected in the CPS by the Census Bureau cover money income received (exclusive of certain money receipts such as capital gains) before payments for personal income taxes, social security, union dues, medicare deductions, etc. Therefore, money income does not reflect the fact that some families receive part of their income in the form of noncash benefits, such as food stamps, health benefits, rent-free housing, and goods produced and consumed on the farm. In addition, money income does not reflect the fact that noncash benefits are also received by some nonfarm residents which often take the form of the use of business transportation and facilities, full or partial payments by business for retirement programs, medical and educational expenses, etc. Data users should consider these elements when comparing income levels. Moreover, readers should be aware that for many different reasons there is a tendency in household surveys for respondents to underreport their income. Based on an analysis of independently derived income estimates, the Census Bureau determined that respondents report income earned from wages or salaries much better than other sources of income and that the reported wage and salary income is nearly equal to independent estimates of aggregate income. ]]> Mon, 29 Oct 2012 03:11:49 -0400 http://1.usa.gov/Rgs0Zn :

For each person in the sample 15 years old and over, the CPS asks questions on the amount of money income received in the preceding calendar year from each of the following sources:

1.Earnings
2.Unemployment compensation
3.Workers’ compensation
4.Social security
5.Supplemental security income
6.Public assistance
7.Veterans’ payments
8.Survivor benefits
9.Disability benefits
10.Pension or retirement income
11.Interest
12.Dividends
13.Rents, royalties, and estates and trusts
14.Educational assistance
15.Alimony
16.Child support
17.Financial assistance from outside of the household
18.Other income

It should be noted that although the income statistics refer to receipts during the preceding calendar year, the demographic characteristics, such as age, labor force status, and family or household composition, are as of the survey date. The income of the family/household does not include amounts received by people who were members during all or part of the income year if these people no longer resided in the family/household at the time of interview. However, the CPS collects income data for people who are current residents but did not reside in the household during the income year.

Data on consumer income collected in the CPS by the Census Bureau cover money income received (exclusive of certain money receipts such as capital gains) before payments for personal income taxes, social security, union dues, medicare deductions, etc. Therefore, money income does not reflect the fact that some families receive part of their income in the form of noncash benefits, such as food stamps, health benefits, rent-free housing, and goods produced and consumed on the farm. In addition, money income does not reflect the fact that noncash benefits are also received by some nonfarm residents which often take the form of the use of business transportation and facilities, full or partial payments by business for retirement programs, medical and educational expenses, etc. Data users should consider these elements when comparing income levels. Moreover, readers should be aware that for many different reasons there is a tendency in household surveys for respondents to underreport their income. Based on an analysis of independently derived income estimates, the Census Bureau determined that respondents report income earned from wages or salaries much better than other sources of income and that the reported wage and salary income is nearly equal to independent estimates of aggregate income. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/957521/comments?source=feed#comment-10982791 10982791 http://1.usa.gov/VwPWcG]]> Sun, 28 Oct 2012 11:09:19 -0400 http://1.usa.gov/VwPWcG]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/903031/comments?source=feed#comment-10877731 10877731 http://bit.ly/RlgihP . It describes quantiatively how personal income evolve with age and time. The observed time series published by the Census Bureau are well matched together with Gini ratios. The model does not contain any human factors except the number of people in a given age group. I think the model works because it does not include those human factors. ]]> Thu, 25 Oct 2012 05:38:19 -0400 http://bit.ly/RlgihP . It describes quantiatively how personal income evolve with age and time. The observed time series published by the Census Bureau are well matched together with Gini ratios. The model does not contain any human factors except the number of people in a given age group. I think the model works because it does not include those human factors. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/922541/comments?source=feed#comment-10531051 10531051 Mon, 15 Oct 2012 02:17:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/922541/comments?source=feed#comment-10531001 10531001 http://bit.ly/GRKXCc]]> Mon, 15 Oct 2012 02:08:22 -0400 http://bit.ly/GRKXCc]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/909051/comments?source=feed#comment-10276561 10276561 http://bit.ly/RKTnO9) .
This is a link to our post in 2009 http://bit.ly/SXiJ8T
By the way, all our models works in developed countries, not only for the US.]]> Mon, 08 Oct 2012 04:52:43 -0400 http://bit.ly/RKTnO9) .
This is a link to our post in 2009 http://bit.ly/SXiJ8T
By the way, all our models works in developed countries, not only for the US.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/909051/comments?source=feed#comment-10275511 10275511 http://bit.ly/TaODOU . It also indicates real GDP growth above 4% in Q3 or Q4 (quarter split is artificial). I am going to present this prediction before the Q3 figures are out.
On the other hand all my models represent a feasibility study and show structural breaks (likely related to change in measutrement units). Therefore, I would not insist that the model is perfect despite it has been working since 2005 when it was developed and publsihed first.]]> Mon, 08 Oct 2012 02:12:26 -0400 http://bit.ly/TaODOU . It also indicates real GDP growth above 4% in Q3 or Q4 (quarter split is artificial). I am going to present this prediction before the Q3 figures are out.
On the other hand all my models represent a feasibility study and show structural breaks (likely related to change in measutrement units). Therefore, I would not insist that the model is perfect despite it has been working since 2005 when it was developed and publsihed first.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/909051/comments?source=feed#comment-10266081 10266081 Sun, 07 Oct 2012 16:18:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/909051/comments?source=feed#comment-10265971 10265971 http://bit.ly/QWwu7v ) we will see the growth rate of real GDP above 4% in the fourth quarter of 2012 and through 2013. The problem is frequent revisions to GDP figures of a few percent. ]]> Sun, 07 Oct 2012 16:14:29 -0400 http://bit.ly/QWwu7v ) we will see the growth rate of real GDP above 4% in the fourth quarter of 2012 and through 2013. The problem is frequent revisions to GDP figures of a few percent. ]]>