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Ryan Mallory
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Ryan Mallory is the founder of and has been trading for more than 20 years. He got his start in the stock market at 11 years old when he inherited $5,000 from a relative that had passed away. Instead of putting the money in a college fund until he was 18, Ryan convinced his... More
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  • Recent Apple Weakness Not Likely To Be Over Yet
    The Changes Taking Place with Apple (AAPL

    Outside of the impact the election has had on the markets since President Obama was declared the winner of last Tuesday's presidential race, Apple has, no doubt, been the biggest story.

    Since last week, it has dropped from $584 down to the current price of $541, and remember, this was a stock that back in September, was breaking through $700 per share.

    Apple's Sell-Off

    One of the most impressive things about Apple's decline to date has been how well it has led the 8-day exponential moving average, without so much of a break.

    However, if this stock fails to hold the $522 price level, I believe Apple's share price is really going to fall through the floor. Not all at once, but eventually, it will likely test that $420 support level (the nearest one in site after $522), which is also home to one major unfilled gap up.

    If that' happens you are talking about a major sell-off from it's highs of $705. In fact it would be a $285 sell-off in all.

    Another sign of concern for me in this stock is the increasing volume throughout the downturn. Typically when we've seen sell-offs in Apple in the past, it has been because retailers were getting skittish and selling their shares to the funds. This time, it isn't just the retailers but the funds too, that are selling - the likes of which hasn't been seen since 2008.

    Now, on the weekly chart, Apple has dropped eight straight weeks. That is hard to do... in fact it's VERY hard. The 50-week moving average which has provided lots of support in the past, has failed to hold price. The last time Apple was trading below this moving average was in 2009. So yes, there is a shift in sentiment for this stock.

    But with that said, I can see this stock moving higher in the very near-term, simply as a dead-cat bounce move. On the weekly and daily time frames, Apple is oversold. As I just mentioned, a stock that has dropped eight straight weeks, also inclines itself to some short-term buying. When that happens, I don't think that suddenly, perception of this stock will have changed.

    I know that I'm going to get some irritated Apple investors - and that's ok. I could be wrong, and have been many times in the past, but I can only trade off of what I know, and Apple is violating every stronghold technically, and once it gets below $522, I believe there will be an additional wave of buyers running for the exits.

    There are also fundamental reasons I believe this

    Granted, those who say I am wrong will point at the company fundamentals, and yes, I agree, they are very strong. Last I checked they were sitting on $100+ billion dollars. But seriously, what are they doing with it to provide any value to their shareholders, besides stuffing it underneath their mattress for the past few years?

    You also have the unveiling of the iPad mini which is fine and all, but is Apple's long-term growth plans involve providing new iPad sizes in 1-inch increments, hoping their loyal followers buy each and every one?

    I think Apple is an unbelievable company and will continue to be through my life-time, but there is some transition going on with this stock, of course with its leadership of late, and honestly, competitors are wising up. Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is making a huge push to steal market share from Apple and who knows, maybe this surface tablet they have might actually be worth buying over the traditional iPad. I can say I'm intrigued by it!

    Apple has achieve a deity-like status among investors, and often times when that happens, complacency sets in and a lot of investors will never recognize the change the stock is undergoing before its too late.

    Here's the Apple chart and how far it could drop

    (click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Tags: short-ideas
    Nov 26 2:33 PM | Link | Comment!
  • 11 Stocks That Only Go Up
    This is by far, one of my favorite stock screens that I run. I have probably found more winning stocks (and big % ones at that) off of this screen, than any other one that I run. These stocks make it a habit to trade on their own merits and not that of the market itself. They are often overlooked, but to those who invest their capital in these stocks, the returns that the investors receive are very rewarding. So if you've been scratching your head recently as to what stocks you should be trading, then the stocks below are probably just what the doctor ordered. However, I do not recommend you going out and buying each and everyone of the stocks listed. Instead put each of these stocks in a watch-list and wait for a minor pull-back to a significant support-level.

    The ones you have to pay closest attention to is MetroPCS Communications (PCS) which has been on just an unbelievable tear lately, and is a stock that I've traded a couple of times this year with a respectable amount of success. The stock is consolidating nicely at its highs and makes for a very nice breakout play. The other one is Cooper Companies (NYSE:COO) which has formed a nice base of late after reaching 52-week highs. Like PCS, I think COO is prime for another significant move higher.

    Here are 11 Stocks That Only Go Up.
    May 13 3:13 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Trading Plan for Dec. 14, 2010
     Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): VMW (86.90), BIDU (105.80), ESV (48.75), CX (9.76)

    Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses)DTV (40.50)

    BIAS: 7% Long

    Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): Producer Price Index (8:30am), Retail Sales (8:30am), Redbook (8:55am), Business Inventories (10am), FOMC Meeting Announcement (2:15pm)

    My Observations and What to Expect:

    • Futures are up slightly heading into the open.
    • Asian markets were once again mixed while European markets are slightly in the negative in trading. .
    • We had another intraday sell-off in the S&P at the close, similar to what we saw back on 12/7. The sell-off doesn't appear to be indicative of a major shift in the behavior of the market and still fits nicely within the context of the existing trend upwards. 
    • Today the Fed releases its FOMC statement, which I will post upon its release. Last time they spoke, there was an unusual amount of volatility (extreme moves in gold and dollar) prior to the announcement. So beware.
    • It is very difficult to play the Fed announcement as there is numerous head fakes upon the release of the FOMC statement, and any move initially should be viewed through skeptical lenses.
    • Of late, most FOMC Statements have been embraced ultimately by the bulls - but sometimes that embrace doesn't occur until the day after the announcement. Prior to the announcement, price movements typically are contained within a narrow range.
    • 1227 could be back in play today if the FOMC statement is not well received. 
    • As noted yesterday, while we still have overhead room to the upside for the market to still run, I wouldn't be overly surprised if we consolidated a bit at current price levels. 
    • Volume continues to come in at below average. 
    • Below 1227, should we break it, the key support level for the S&P would become 1216 - the lows of previous consolidation.
    • Dip buying will continue to be the name of the game for traders.
    • Dollar looks more and more like it is preparing for another leg down - on the verge of a lower-low.
    • For the bears - Use the FOMC statement to instantly drive these markets lower - no better opportunity, should Bernanke and Co. include in the statement language that isn't well-received by the street. A close below 1227 is a must for them, to thwart the bullishness of the markets. 
    • For the bulls - HOLD, HOLD, HOLD the 1227 level after the FOMC release. Anything else is just cherries on top.

    Here Are The Actions I Will Be Taking:

    Tags: SPY
    Dec 14 8:47 AM | Link | Comment!
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