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thurston

thurston
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  • Kinder Morgan Disassembles For Greater Growth [View article]
    If it is not a good deal for KMP unit holders, it is interesting that KMP went up.
    Aug 13 03:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Encore Capital Group Earnings [View article]
    I own the shares and have for a while and like the company and industry.

    One interesting feature is that the debt collection industry is quite decentralized with a lot of Mom & Pop players. As the government regulates consumer finance companies and banks more and more, companies that really know what they are doing have a value, in the case of ECPG when the go to collect a debt it is sometimes from someone they have dealt with before and there are synergies to that. They can also invest in technology on a level that smaller players cannot.

    Some one once said that Ray Kroc, who built MacDonald's, "did not invent the hamburger, he organized the hamburger" and I think that ECPG is among the businesses who have a chance to do that in the debt collection industry.

    Thank you for your article which makes it appear that things are on track. This could be the type of company that one could own for many years into the future.
    Aug 8 04:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Oilwell Varco Got Slammed On The Back Of Earnings Again [View article]
    I own a few hundred shares of NOV and have liked it for a while.

    I agree with you and suspect that the shares went down on earnings because the market in general went down and also energy sector ETF's etc. were down, I don't think it was an isolated case of disappointment in the earnings of NOV.

    Also the dividend has increased so one might wait and hope to buy at a better price later on but I don't see much reason to sell if you own NOV now. YTD price performance has been just slightly up but when you take in to account the distribution of DNOW shares (which I kept) the performance seems okay. Interested to hear your thoughts on 2015.
    Aug 3 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America's Cycle Of Addiction [View article]
    YTD BAC is down $0.15 (less than 1%) and many investors such as myself are well ahead on this name (my average price per share is a little over $6).

    I think it is a good sign when a stock is subject to unrelenting bad news and attacks (especially on the part of the government but you do what you can) and yet it refuses to go down. At some point the attacks will burn themselves out if only because there are rules against double jeopardy and because the Obama administration's second term will expire, if the economy does at all well in the post Obama world I think big banks will do well also.

    I feel comfortable with the thesis that five years from now BAC will be a going concern and it is very likely that it will have a higher stock price and dividend.

    I do like your articles because if there was a reason to sell it stand to reason that you would come up with it.
    Jul 30 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America's Cycle Of Addiction [View article]
    Everyone can agree that it would have been a bad idea to buy a long time ago at a higher price. However, it does not follow that it is a bad idea to buy the shares now, I feel pretty sure BAC will be trading at a higher level 20 years from now. where the stock trades in the future is more important than picking a point on the chart many years back when the price was higher and assuming that there is a trend that will continue to do down.

    Also for those of us who bought at a lower level (my average price per share is about $6), the fact that the stock was once higher in the past does not provide us with a reason to sell now.

    With luck this link will open on a contrary view from Bill Smead who unlike Don has made a bet (he thinks the stock will go to $30): http://cnb.cx/1o6Bc1G
    Jul 28 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America's Cycle Of Addiction [View article]
    Or, put another way, Don's ceaseless negative articles about BAC would carry more weight if he actually was short. To write a negative (often superficial "ripped from today's headlines" type) article about BAC every three days does not make a heck of a lot of sense for someone who has no position in the stock. If things are that bad, why doesn't Don go short?

    It would seem to be an example of "do what I say (sell) rather than what is do (remain on the sidelines)".

    It would be interesting to have someone add up how many negative articles Don has written about BAC this year, 10, 20, 30? and yet if you look at the stock chart year to date the shares opened 2014 at $15.57 and closed on Friday at $15.59. I am still long on the shares, still well ahead and still looking at this as a long term investment, I enjoy reading Don's articles because presumably if there is a reason to sell it will turn up in one of them. In the meantime there is a bit of a "the sky is falling" atmosphere with one Don Dion article after another predicting doom and urging SA readers to dump the stock, a stock that is up slightly YTD and which is paying a dividend.

    In fact, you could argue that Don is a contrary indicator, namely, when there is so much hysterical gloom and doom about a stock and it simply will not go down isn't the market telling us something, like maybe the headlines and hangover from Countrywide and so forth are in the rear view mirror and that going forward BAC has a pretty impressive franchise and customer base.
    Jul 26 04:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan - Why I'm All In With Jamie Dimon [View article]
    Are you asking in the Bill Clinton sense? It depends on what the meaning of ISS is?
    Jul 25 04:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Unprepared To Pay Billions, Outlook Dark For Shareholders [View article]
    Precisely, also some banks like JPM did not want it but were forced to take the "bail out".
    Jun 23 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Unprepared To Pay Billions, Outlook Dark For Shareholders [View article]
    Meanwhile, if you take a little longer term view, like a one month chart of the stock price, BAC shares are up about $1.00 per share in the last 30 days.

    This price action also suggests there can be more reasons to own the stock besides the 1 penny dividend (like price appreciation, retained earnings, etc.).
    Jun 20 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Unprepared To Pay Billions, Outlook Dark For Shareholders [View article]
    It goes back to the Community Redevelopment Act in the Carter years and both Clinton and Bush were pushing the idea of making it easier to buy a home (which means making it easier to get a mortgage). Barney Frank was in Congress for many years under administrations of both parties and clearly supported making it easier to buy a home. It is not one party or the other.
    Jun 16 06:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Unprepared To Pay Billions, Outlook Dark For Shareholders [View article]
    Can you (mphill47) provide a link to the Morgan Stanley reports?

    From what I have seen (am still long on my BAC shares with a cost of about $6 per share) about this latest story, the DOJ maybe wants BAC to pay an excessive some (maybe $12B) and the bank's management (Moynihan being a pretty good lawyer I think) thinks that this is too high, as a result, an agreement may not be reached.

    You can go through a lot of litigation for $12B so if they are in court for the next 20 years on this it would not bother me, I even think that if BAC were to fight the DOJ fines tooth and nail they might either win or pay a lot less since the mortgage mess was caused as much by the plaintiff as the defendant in the case.

    I like Don's articles but I think we have all seen the sky is falling news presented many times before by now.
    Jun 16 06:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan's Curious Case Of Fang Fang Continues, Along With Bad News For JPM Shareholders [View article]
    Fast follow up: http://on.mktw.net/1gC...

    The current year consensus estimates call for the bank to earn $20B, the bank is selling for a P/E of 10 based on this year's earnings and a P/E of 9 based on the coming year's earnings of $6 per share. The average analyst recommendation is "Overweight".

    If you sell JPM today based on the Fang Fang headlines, do you think the share price will be up five years from now? Will anyone remember who Fang Fang was?
    May 28 11:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan's Curious Case Of Fang Fang Continues, Along With Bad News For JPM Shareholders [View article]
    In the meantime the bank earned more than $15B last year and pays a 3% dividend. Think it may be the most profitable bank in the world.
    May 28 01:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Calling The Bottom [View article]
    I am still long BAC - have not bought or sold in quite some time. In your article:

    "I suspect that when the capital plan is approved that we'll see either modest buybacks or a higher dividend, but probably not both. However, it really doesn't matter how the capital is allocated so long as it is. I really don't care about being right about how BAC will split it up, I just want to see that it gets done".

    I just wanted to point out that there are three choices when it comes to earnings or profits, buybacks or dividends as you note, OR retained earnings. In effect the earnings are forcibly being allocated to retained earnings pending Fed approval of capital reserves etc. The point is that the earnings have not disappeared while the Fed is approving the current capital plan. The primary point is whether or not there are earning.

    Warren Buffett once made the analogy to a pass book savings account where you have $1000 on deposit and you earn 10% over the course of a year. If you withdraw $50 at the end of the year you are left with $1050 which will earn interest in the following year. This is how a dividend works. Retained earnings are similar to what would happen if (in this example) you do NOT withdraw anything and have $1100 at the end of the year which can earn interest in the following year. This is how retained earnings work.

    This is to say that if BAC is earning money and for now there is no buyback or dividend pending Fed approval of the capital plan, BAC is still earning money: and, as in the example of the savings account where no money is taken out because the money BAC earns is used to reduce debt or kept as retained earnings the price of the stock sooner or later will go up, just like the savings account that is worth more if you do not take any money out.

    I am fine with the idea of receiving dividends and with the idea of buybacks. In the meantime it is worth keeping in mind that unless the management does something stupid with the money BAC earns (think the Ken Lewis days are behind us) then the delayed gratification in terms of dividends or buybacks should not be any great concern. If BAC is earning money and it is allocated to the category of retained earnings the company will inevitably be worth more.
    May 28 12:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Don't Be Bamboozled, Plenty Of Meat Left On This Bone [View article]
    Hi: In your piece you mention that: "The stock is basically trading at the same a price as it was in 1990. That was 24 years ago people. Talk about a major buying opportunity." I am significantly long BAC and I expect to stay in it for a long time so I agree with the thrust of your article, however I think looking at that long a time frame there has been some issuance of shares and/or dilution, is that reflected in your chart? If there are 20% more shares now than when it sold at this price in 1990, then the stock may be trading at the same price but one share gets you a little smaller fractional interest in the bank, of course there is more bank there since acquisitions have been made like State Street and ML. Anyway just wondering if your chart and analysis has been adjusted to take into account the issuance of shares? An interesting related question would be how much of a buy back would have to take place in the coming years to get the share count back to where it was in 1990.
    May 23 12:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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