Seeking Alpha

gandypool

gandypool
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View gandypool's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Herbalife's Tragic Flaw: Understanding Inventory Loading [View article]
    WillyTSA wrote:"Gandypool, how many shares do I need to own before they'll give me attention and time? Hope this isn't their attitude toward small and new distributors."

    Like I said, why don't you buy your 1 share and go to the shareholder meeting and let us know how you make out. I'm sure that the others there with thousands or hundreds of thousands or millions of shares would be happy to have the company spend their time with you and your questions instead of theirs. Good Luck and be sure to let us know how you make out.
    Mar 11 04:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife's Tragic Flaw: Understanding Inventory Loading [View article]
    WillyTSA wrote:" Just2look, if I spend $41 to buy a share today and submit the Ackman questions to Herbalife, do you think will they answer them?"

    Go for it Willy! Go long! Then you can go to the shareholder's meeting and ask your questions. My guess is the balance of the stockholders at the annual meeting will be happy to give you and your 1 share as much attention and time as you like. I dare you!
    Mar 8 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Publicly Available Lessons Regarding Pyramid Schemes: What Should We Think About Herbalife? [View article]
    Matt Stewart:"... 30 x 12 = $360... if you buy one can of F1 a month... why are new recruits buying more?"

    Where are you getting theses numbers from? Also, are you aware that HLF sells more than F1?

    Matt, you might want to stop calculating average numbers for every point you want to make. It doesn't help you with your credibility.
    Mar 6 10:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Publicly Available Lessons Regarding Pyramid Schemes: What Should We Think About Herbalife? [View article]
    William Keep:"just2look...I have already addressed this. As you don't seem to believe me no restating of the ease with which information on retail sales can be collected will convince you so I will spare myself the energy."

    If you won't explain it to J2L, then how about explaining it to the rest of us who took the time to read your article. J2L is completely correct in the way s/he described the difficulties and expenses involved in the type of data collection you are suggesting would be easy. S/he is also correct in pointing out the tactic of crying for information that doesn't exist (and is extremely difficult to obtain accurately) and then claiming some nefarious reason for the company not having it.
    Mar 6 05:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Publicly Available Lessons Regarding Pyramid Schemes: What Should We Think About Herbalife? [View article]
    J2L:"I'll take a whack at it:... profit = P + 0.06P + YP - 075P - 0.06P - YP = 0.25P"

    LOL.
    Mar 6 03:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Publicly Available Lessons Regarding Pyramid Schemes: What Should We Think About Herbalife? [View article]
    Matt Stewart:" 1,000 VPs gets you 42% discount...what is that in $...?

    They don't buy more...they churn out...85% to be exact...

    1.46 million in 2012..."


    $580 - you could work on your math skills. I'll show my work so you can follow along and learn: 42% of 1000 is 420, 1000 - 420 = 580...
    If they "churn out", they can return unused product...
    Where are you getting your figure of 1.46 million in 2012?...
    Mar 5 04:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reply To Bill Ackman's Questions On My Herbalife Analysis (Part 2) [View article]
    hudget, None of my math teachers would ever give me credit unless I showed my work.

    When you say "Per my calculations", you would help your credibility by showing your work.
    Feb 28 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reply To Bill Ackman's Questions On My Herbalife Analysis (Part 2) [View article]
    HLFraud, I guess my difficulty is in following your "make believe" numbers. Let's use real numbers and then apply VDN & Keep's equation for ARC.

    ARC = W * ( r - f ) = ( W * r ) - ( W * f )

    Using PS's (Shane Dineen) estimate for percent of product retailed (r) of 70%.
    and
    Using HLF's 2012 10K:

    W = Net Sales = Product Sales + Revenue for S&H = $4,072M
    W * (r) = 0.7 * $4072M = $2850M
    W * (f) = GOGS = Cost of Sales which includes shipping, packaging, etc. = $813M

    So ARC = $2850M - $813M = $2037M

    W * (u) = Royalty Overrides + distribution rewards = $1338M + $36 = $1374

    So at 70% retail sales, the "recruiting rewards" are completely funded with ARC. Per VDN & Keep, it would not be considered a Pyramid scheme.

    Now show us your work.
    Feb 28 05:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Handicapping The Icahn Position In Herbalife [View article]
    If Ackman were to cover his short at this time, how long do you think before he is sued by:
    1) HLF for defamation, and Tortious interference
    2) class action by share holders
    3) those that followed his lead.

    Ackman boxed himself into a corner and his options are very limited and bleak. Unless the Government rides in on its white horse. Unfortunately it looks like the basis of Shane Dineen's argument (the Vander Nat equation) was applied incorrectly and that it actually suggests HLF is NOT a pyramid scheme. If I were a PS LP, my redemption request would already be filed.
    Feb 28 05:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reply To Bill Ackman's Questions On My Herbalife Analysis (Part 2) [View article]
    Hudget, what data are you suggesting is being obfuscated and what information do you think should be provided?
    Feb 28 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reply To Bill Ackman's Questions On My Herbalife Analysis (Part 2) [View article]
    Mr. Thornton,

    I have read many of your comments, and can't quite figure out what you are talking about. Maybe you could explain using specifics instead of vague references.

    I'm not sure what the rest of SA readers think, but I am finding it harder read your comments instead of just skipping over them.
    Feb 28 09:52 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reply To Bill Ackman's Questions On My Herbalife Analysis (Part 2) [View article]
    HLFraud, Your analysis on VDN's equation is wrong. You are using SRP instead of W. Also you state that "90% of HLF net sales are attributable to the minimum monthly purchase requirements for Sales Leaders to qualify for royalty payments", where did you get that figure from?
    Feb 28 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reply To Bill Ackman's Questions On My Herbalife Analysis (Part 1) [View article]
    Willy, did you miss the whole discussion of sell vs. recruit?
    Feb 28 07:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reply To Bill Ackman's Questions On My Herbalife Analysis (Part 2) [View article]
    hudget, E=MC2 is a little antiquated also.
    Feb 28 06:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reply To Bill Ackman's Questions On My Herbalife Analysis (Part 2) [View article]
    hudget wrote:" W is an important concept..... Let's get in depth with this analysis.

    Go to the HLF site and read the 10K, it is all explained there. Then get a copy of Vander Nat's paper and read that. Then you can try to understand what Vander Nat was including in his calculations. After you do that, re-read the posts from Fusion Research and see if you can follow what they are talking about. It is very clear what Vander Nat was doing and what is and isn't included in (W), (f), etc.

    Good Luck.
    Feb 28 06:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
83 Comments
82 Likes