Full-time Investor, and frequent speculator. Focus on US Stocks and Real Estate. Degree in Economics and Finance. Over 35 years of economic analysis and active investing experience. Retired Financial Services CEO (company had $2 Billion in financial assets). Macroeconomic conditions and cycle progression are the foundation of my investment strategy. I evaluate the macro trend, and then select investments that will benefit from that trend, shifting the mix as the cycle progresses. Earnings growth is the sustainable fuel for investment gains. So, I look to position my portfolio accordingly. I stay fully invested during the rising tide of a growing economy. I use leverage until the expansion shows signs of constraints and exhaustion. Rising input costs (wages, materials, energy, interest rates) eventually squeeze corporate profits, making growth less feasible. When I see evidence of a coming recession combined with weakness in the market, I exit my equity positions, reduce my real estate holdings, and shift to the safety of cash and treasury bonds. After the market slides deeply, and after the panic reaches headline proportions, I begin to reinvest as I anticipate or see evidence of the market bottom. I successfully avoided the 2001-2002 and the 2008 bear markets, while being fully invested for the bull markets around those declines. In prior cycles I purchased individual stocks. However, during this bull market I am making heavy use of ETFs (including Sector ETFs). This is much less work, but results in more average returns. I do purchase some individual company stocks when I think the company will perform better than the average in its industry sector. I do not sell short, and rarely use options. My portfolio is about half market tracking. I also use sector rotation, selected specific companies, modest margin debt, and 3x leveraged ETFs, within the rising cycle trend to magnify and outperform the average trend. I also adjust the size of my market exposure based on market conditions, and historic patterns. My gross investment asset allocation target is roughly 70% stock, and 30% real estate (rentals). Current Stock Portfolio Mix (Sep 2016): 47% Broad Market Tracking (VTI, SPY, RSP, QQQ, VB...),17% Homebuilders and related, 15% Consumer Discretionary (VCR), 08% Industrials (XLI), 05% Berkshire Hathaway, 08% all other. Margin Debt is about 4% of portfolio value. Total Market Leverage is 1.05x (down from 1.34x in 2014). No bonds, and cash is less than 2% of gross assets. Real Estate is Residential Rentals, mostly near the beach (average LTV is about 40%). Over the past 35+ years of active investing in stocks and real estate, my investment returns have been significantly above the average return of the S&P 500 (largely due to market timing and leverage). Since October 2007, my Stock portfolio average total return has been about 15% per year, compounded. My Real Estate portfolio average total return has been about 8% per year for the same period. The S&P 500 average total return has been about 6% per year during the same period.
Late 30's investor trying to adopt the dividend growth strategy. I have made some poor decisions in the past like not staying completely invested. I am currently almost all cash and would like to slowly invest my way back into the market. I am tracking my progress of my real portfolio at our blog
I am a retired banker who lives on a small farm in Oregon with my wife Pamela. I'm pretty much self-taught in most aspects of life including finance, construction, wiring, investing and golf. I've been successful in all of these areas with the exception of the last one. I enjoy following politics and always try to understand the real reason behind events as opposed to the twisted commentary in the main-stream media. My largest responsibility now is to make sure that our investments carry us through the remainder of our lives.
Individual investor. Generally using index Mutual Funds or ETFs. Trying to diversify more (foreign in particular). Pick up tips & concepts, & learn more.
I'm at alpha to keep a finger on the current moods & predictions... and so I notice up coming big financial news events before they impact.
See you around! Feel free to write me!
The Teutonic Knight retired as senior principal engineer with a US Fortune 500 technology corporation. He earned a B.A.Sc.degree in electrical engineering science (honors intensive) from the University of British Columbia, and an M.Eng.degree (First Class) in satellite communications engineering, from the University of Ottawa, respectively. Having practiced space mission system engineering in the intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) with the Canadian and U.S. governments for decades, he was elected a Lifetime Senior Member of the IEEE (LSMIEEE).