Full-time Investor, and frequent speculator. Focus on US Stocks and Real Estate. Degree in Economics and Finance. Over 35 years of economic analysis and active investing experience. Retired Financial Services CEO (company had $2 Billion in financial assets). Macroeconomic conditions and cycle progression are the foundation of my investment strategy. I evaluate the macro trend, and then select investments that will benefit from that trend, shifting the mix as the cycle progresses. Earnings growth is the sustainable fuel for investment gains. So, I look to position my portfolio accordingly. I stay fully invested during the rising tide of a growing economy. I use leverage until the expansion shows signs of constraints and exhaustion. Rising input costs (wages, materials, energy, interest rates) eventually squeeze corporate profits, making growth less feasible. When I see evidence of a coming recession combined with weakness in the market, I exit my equity positions, reduce my real estate holdings, and shift to the safety of cash and treasury bonds. After the market slides deeply, and after the panic reaches headline proportions, I begin to reinvest as I anticipate or see evidence of the market bottom. I successfully avoided the 2000-2002 and the 2008 bear markets, while being fully invested for the bull markets around those declines. In prior cycles I purchased individual stocks. However, during this bull market I am making heavy use of ETFs (including Sector ETFs). This is much less work, but results in more average returns. I do purchase some individual company stocks when I think the company will perform better than the average in its industry sector. I do not sell short, and rarely use options. My portfolio is about half market tracking. I also use sector rotation, selected specific companies, modest margin debt, and 3x leveraged ETFs, within the rising cycle trend to magnify and outperform the average trend. I also adjust the size of my market exposure based on market conditions, and historic patterns. Over the past 35+ years of active investing in stocks and real estate, my investment returns have been significantly above the average return of the S&P 500 (largely due to market timing and leverage). Since October 2007, my Stock portfolio average total return has been about 15% per year, compounded. My Real Estate portfolio average total return has been about 8% per year for the same period. The S&P 500 average total return has been about 5% per year during the same period. My gross investment asset allocation target is roughly 70% stock, and 30% real estate (rentals). Current Stock Portfolio Mix (April 2016): 46% Broad Market Tracking (VTI, SPY, RSP, QQQ, VB...),19% Homebuilders and related, 15% Consumer Discretionary (VCR), 07% Industrials (XLI), 05% Berkshire Hathaway, 08% all other. Margin Debt is about 4% of portfolio value. Total Market Leverage is 1.05x (down from 1.34x in 2014). Bonds; 0% Cash: Less than 2% of gross assets. Real Estate is Residential Rentals, mostly near the beach (average LTV is about 40%).
Have spent over 40 years in the O&G industry with special interest in technology application for improved business performance. Academic background: geology & geophysics. Professional background: seismic technology application, operations & management. Currently: external director on the board of a leading seismic acquisition company.
I am a CFA with over 25 years experience at a number of major global middle market investment banks. I worked as a sell side equity research analyst as well as in investment banking where I researched and analyzed M&A trends and activity.
Born in 1958, I am a small investor who has taken his lumps. When I started out, I made a lot of money trading. Then I lost twice as much, when market conditions changed but my methods didn't. Intellectually I believe that dividend investing is probably the best way to go. However, I am still addicted to searching for a good deal--call it value investing, or swing investing, or what you will.
Just an old farm boy who bought his first stock in 1970. Been a student of the markets and investing ever since. Over the years I have owned and managed several businesses before retiring for health reasons three years ago. MS from the University of Akron.
When will long-term investors have any cash to deploy? If you believe in their mantra, most of them think people should be nearly fully invested nearly all of the time - it is rare to have a long term Buy and Hold investor to keep 30% in cash for buying opportunities. How much of a loss are you willing to suffer waiting for a recovery? 10%, 20%, 30%?
Do the numbers and see what kind of gain you will need to recoup to the break even point on several loss levels to get an idea of how long you may need to wait. For example a 30% loss requires a 43% gain to get back to the break even. A 20% loss takes a 25 % GAIN to get back to even.$100,000 - 20% = $80,000 . 80k X 25% = 20,000 +80k =100K
There are few assets like PM's that are liquid and have NO counterparty risk. If you know of any that perform that function please post it for all to see.
The fact of the matter is that some people ONLY save any money because of Precious Metals. If it were not for their gold and silver many would not have any money saved or invested. They would have Beanie babies or some other fad item. The people that I sell Silver Eagles to are much happier ten years later when they bought those coins made of PM's for their grandchildren (or whomever) when they find out the $8 - $12 bucks they spent is worth more than they paid.And the recipient learns a valuable lesson from it. There are good gifts and not so good gifts. Silver Eagles rank near the top of the list. Don't underestimate the power for people to develop good savings habits using PM's . It's fundamental.
Our welfare system is a huge drain on the economy .Those of us working for a living instead of voting for a living see huge holes in our paychecks every week.
As unfortunate as it is to know that cuts to foodstamps and welfare will likely cause a bit of suffering, it’s not the job of the government to forcibly remove money from the pockets of hard working Americans in order to take care of those who won’t work.
Granted, there are some people who genuinely need the help, and those folks get dragged into the mud with the abusers, which isn’t fair to them.
Now, just because the government shouldn’t be “helping” those in need, doesn’t mean we as Americans should forego kindness and charity. Quite the opposite. Americans are some of the most generous people on the planet, but unfortunately, that generosity gets quelled when the government is involved.Without the government in the way, regular every day individuals like you and me need to step up and start helping those who are in dire straits. That’s how this country used to be long before all of the social welfare programs, and it’s what made our nation so wonderful.
If the government insists on being “helpful,” they can start by reducing taxes and ridiculous regulations that overburden small business owners, which will free them up to expand their companies and hire new workers.
....................................................................................................................................................... Let's say 50 years ago, 1964, your grandfather bequeathed you an inheritance worth $1,000, which he put in a pretty box with your name on it. At this moment, you are about to open that box… Would you be happy to find his personal check dated 1964 made payable to you; would you rather find ten $100 Federal Reserve Notes; or would you prefer to find that thousand bucks in the form of 4,000 silver quarters, the steady constant value of 715 ounces of silver, with a current dollar number north of $12,500? Would your choice be the same if you were putting your wealth away today for an heir to receive in ten, twenty, or fifty years?
Financial contagion happens at both the international level and the domestic level. At the domestic level, usually the failure of a domestic bank or financial intermediary triggers transmission when it defaults on interbank liabilities and sells assets in a fire sale, thereby undermining confidence in similar banks. An example of this phenomenon is the subsequent turmoil in the United Statesfinancial markets. International financial contagion, which happens in both advanced economies and developing economies, is the transmission of financial crisis across financial markets for direct or indirect economies. However, under today's financial system, with large volume of cash flow, such as hedge fund and cross-regional operation of large banks, financial contagion usually happens simultaneously both among domestic institutions and across countries. The cause of financial contagion usually is beyond the explanation of real economy, such as the bilateral trade volume.
Prone to gravity defying feats of market levitation, often while holding an anvil.
Uncanny ability to call a bottom - after hitting it (while holding an anvil).
Inhuman ability to recover from complete disaster and rise again.
Expert on the danger of cliffs, fiscal and otherwise. (Advice - avoid them. Disclaimer: not a recommendation to buy or sell securities)
I live in a wilderness, chasing an elusive thing that zig-zags randomly at great speed. It seems to say with a smirk, "You can beat me if you just try one more time". To that end, I embrace bizarre new products and technologies in fond hope. It's not that I'm deluded, really -- it's just that out in the wilderness, it's the most interesting game in town.
Long ACME. Paid spokes-animal (well, I don't actually speak, do I?, so let's say paid sign-animal) for ACME.