Full-time Investor, and frequent speculator. Focus on US Stocks and Real Estate. Degree in Economics and Finance. Over 35 years of economic analysis and active investing experience. Retired Financial Services CEO (company had $2 Billion in financial assets). Macroeconomic conditions and cycle progression are the foundation of my investment strategy. I evaluate the macro trend, and then select investments that will benefit from that trend, shifting the mix as the cycle progresses. Earnings growth is the sustainable fuel for investment gains. So, I look to position my portfolio accordingly. I stay fully invested during the rising tide of a growing economy. I use leverage until the expansion shows signs of constraints and exhaustion. Rising input costs (wages, materials, energy, interest rates) eventually squeeze corporate profits, making growth less feasible. When I see evidence of a coming recession combined with weakness in the market, I exit my equity positions, reduce my real estate holdings, and shift to the safety of cash and treasury bonds. After the market slides deeply, and after the panic reaches headline proportions, I begin to reinvest as I anticipate or see evidence of the market bottom. I successfully avoided the 2001-2002 and the 2008 bear markets, while being fully invested for the bull markets around those declines. In prior cycles I purchased individual stocks. However, during this bull market I am making heavy use of ETFs (including Sector ETFs). This is much less work, but results in more average returns. I do purchase some individual company stocks when I think the company will perform better than the average in its industry sector. I do not sell short, and rarely use options. My portfolio is about half market tracking. I also use sector rotation, selected specific companies, modest margin debt, and 3x leveraged ETFs, within the rising cycle trend to magnify and outperform the average trend. I also adjust the size of my market exposure based on market conditions, and historic patterns. Over the past 35+ years of active investing in stocks and real estate, my investment returns have been significantly above the average return of the S&P 500 (largely due to market timing and leverage). Since October 2007, my Stock portfolio average total return has been about 15% per year, compounded. My Real Estate portfolio average total return has been about 8% per year for the same period. The S&P 500 average total return has been about 5% per year during the same period. My gross investment asset allocation target is roughly 70% stock, and 30% real estate (rentals). Current Stock Portfolio Mix (July 2016): 47% Broad Market Tracking (VTI, SPY, RSP, QQQ, VB...),18% Homebuilders and related, 15% Consumer Discretionary (VCR), 07% Industrials (XLI), 05% Berkshire Hathaway, 08% all other. Margin Debt is about 4% of portfolio value. Total Market Leverage is 1.05x (down from 1.34x in 2014). No bonds, and cash is less than 2% of gross assets. Real Estate is Residential Rentals, mostly near the beach (average LTV is about 40%).
The Teutonic Knight retired as senior principal engineer with a US Fortune 500 technology corporation. He earned a B.A.Sc.degree in electrical engineering science (honors intensive) from the University of British Columbia, and an M.Eng.degree (First Class) in satellite communications engineering, from the University of Ottawa, respectively. Having practiced space mission system engineering in the intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) with the Canadian and U.S. governments for decades, he was elected a Lifetime Senior Member of the IEEE (LSMIEEE).
Have spent over 40 years in the O&G industry with special interest in technology application for improved business performance. Academic background: geology & geophysics. Professional background: seismic technology application, operations & management. Currently: external director on the board of a leading seismic acquisition company.
I am a CFA with over 25 years experience at a number of major global middle market investment banks. I worked as a sell side equity research analyst as well as in investment banking where I researched and analyzed M&A trends and activity.
Born in 1958, I am a small investor who has taken his lumps. When I started out, I made a lot of money trading. Then I lost twice as much, when market conditions changed but my methods didn't. Intellectually I believe that dividend investing is probably the best way to go. However, I am still addicted to searching for a good deal--call it value investing, or swing investing, or what you will.