Aquater

John Hussman: The Danger of Inaction

A good alarming narrative with an appropriate timing factor to it. Hope the legislators take heed. And investors too.

Sentiment Overview: Insiders Decisively Bearish

The article very comprehensively covers an important and often decisive indicator, namely, market sentiment. The author shows clearly how the sentiment is tilted to the bullish extreme and is therefore indicative of a market downturn. At any rate, the cautious stance of the author is eminently sensible.
The comment that we are witnessing an asset bubble in equities seems to have a good point. But to ask where the money will go from equities has at least two lines of answer. One, it can go to traditional safe havens like treasuries, precious metals and defensive equities like utilities, staples, health and defense. Alternatively, if and when selling starts and then establishes as a trend, investors won't ask the question where they will reinvest; they will just want to get out. In 2008, for example, everything went down, not just equities. Everybody went into cash even as interest rates trended toward zero.
That may not happen this time. History rhymes but does not repeat exactly. Or, money may go partly in some traditional defensive assets and partly in cash. Any way, the question as to where money will go won't deter selling once trend establihes itself. The question is often asked when a bubble forms but, if investors would always worry about replacement, few bubbles would ever burst. There are times when fear trumps greed; which is what makes a bear market.

Martin Weiss: A Depression Is Unavoidable

I have read Martin Weiss and been a subscriber to his newsletters. No more. He has a way with words and is of course learned unlike many opinionated commentators above.

But Weiss is fixated on his approach, never changes or learns and never admits any mistakes that easily confront a near perma-bear. Perma-bulls are no better.

The more prudent way is to take opportunities in the intermediate term and be long as well as short as time dictates, anticipating upcoming trends and getting out in time with nimbleness. Buy-and-hold fools as well as perma-bears are a recipe for underperformance.

Be a prudent opportunist and don't let your politics taint you market posture and performance. Errors in judgment always happen. Market humiliates the majority consistently.

There are more than one ways to make money in market. Find yours but for your own sake, get out of the so-called "disciplined" way to lock yourself into an erroneous strategy. Change strategies as necessary. The goal is not to prove yourself but to win financial freedom, whatever strategies it takes over time.

Good luck, in any case.

Where Are Markets Now? Technical, Fundamental and Valuation Reference Points

A great article, with a wide coverage and in-depth analysis. I am adding you to my watch list. It seems the rally is getting exhausted and may turn albeit slowly.

Five Reasons to Be Bullish

Reasons supporting bear markets are usually more intelligent than those supporting bull markets. Bullish reasons are more based on emotions than reason. Bears point out reality while bulls revel in hope. These five best reasons to be bullish indeed show that this is the case; they were easily torn down by bears. Let's see how the bearish reasons fare. They could be expected to be tougher to pull down.

Sell in May and Go Away?

Of course "sell in May" does not work out all the time. What does? But it has a documented record that more than 95% of money managers would envy. The record stretches even globally, which I was surprised to find. Financial institutions and their lapdogs will always badmouth the sell-in-May dictum because it goes contrary to their vested interests.
In May, though, everything has to be pointing upward and even grandmas and taxi drivers are bullish. Buy back in late October when there is blood in the street.
Those who say things are improving and hence this time sell-in-May will not work are amusing and know little about history. They always say that by May and that is exactly the point. You are supposed to sell at the top when even grandmas and taxi drivers are giving tips, wearing a rosy outlook.

Commodity and Leveraged ETF Regulation: Will It Hurt the Industry?

Seems regulators are just being paternalistic at the cost of people's freedom to trade. Let individuals decide, after being properly briefed, whether they do or do not want to use leveraged ETF's, long or inverse. And the briefing should also be unbiased, just giving pure facts and not opinions.

The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century by George Friedman

The comments to this article above exactly prove the point of the article: brash teenage short-sighted but overconfident knee-jerk reactions.

Alternatives and Absolute Return with ETFs

Too messy a portfolio. Seems it is made just to impress a novice by including some currently fashionable sectors and including a complex array of etf's whose overall coherence is not explained or may not be explainable. As a challenging alternative, look at a simpler but highly effective vehicle like PRPFX (Permanent Portfolio). It already as a great record. The proposed hodge podge concoction, on the other hand, will certainly fail unless changed uncannily by correctly anticipating fast changing future events. Any thinking intellect can do better.

Dave Fry: Thoughts on Leveraged ETFs

Black box comments are of no help, for example, readers saying they made money using this or that instrument without revealing what they based their trades on. Of course they may want to keep it close to their chest but they need to realize that any loud mouth can bluff and brag like that on any instrument.
Much of so-called regulation on the leveraged ETF's seems made to satisfy various vested or entrenched interests of financial institutions. Just in plain language lay out what are the potential problems in trading them and then get out of the traders' way. In a nation which allows casinos and even state-sponsored lotteries and other gambling avenues it is scandalous that insulting paternalism never stops in the financial arena.
Instead of facilitating good education on personal finance and investing, financial institutions try to give advice that refuses to work because it is really designed to serve the needs of the institution itself rather than the consumer. Much of regulation is of this nature which smacks of culpable paternalism.

ETF Market Trends: GDP Upside Surprise Ironically Gives Worry to Sustainable Recovery

Excellent analysis and a wealth of data to digest for investment purposes. Data is systematically organized and presented in comparable way. Synoptic coverage is highly remarkable, to say the least. Nary an aspect of investment world is left untreated.
The next question: Can this data be available on historical basis so one can see how an investment instrument has moved, and from which position, to where it is currently?
Any way, the author needs to be commended and congratulated on achieving a thorough, comprehensive and highly useful analytical presentation of current investment data.

Sentiment Overview: How Are Investors Responding to the Correction?

Excellent analysis as usual from this author. However, I kept looking for the charts of the last few sentiment indicators mentioned.
Indeed, the market is finally seeing reality and has come down from the clouds. I'm afraid the "correction" won't be over until the market is back on the earth, of course with the usual zigzags. We'll see.

Transportation ETFs: Has the Sector Hit a Bottom?

The author talks about "transportation ETF's" but as far as I know there is only one: IYT. Author also shows only IYT. Please let me know what other trasnportation ETF's are there. Thank you.

ETF Ideas for a Continuing Recovery

The article bases its bullish case on not much more than hope, in the final analysis. Selective criteria can be countered by bearish ones. Overbought markets usually correct rather than defy gravity. Of course there are exceptions like 2003, as pointed out. Is it rational to bet on exceptions rather than more frequent occurrences?

Treasury Bonds: Here Comes the Bull Market Flattener

The article is written with sharp thinking and penetrating insight. The argument for inflation is trite, obvious and overdone. In that view, this analysis is refreshing. In the least, it provides a foil for the established rut of thinking about long term bonds and the movement of interest rates over the long run.