Aquater

Defining a Set of Core Asset Classes

Thanks for your response. I understand the rationale for three-year look-back, tentative though it is it is back-tested by you. But on what basis is the QPP projection for one year based? I have hard time finding this. All I find is the details of its being tested. I need to see some articulation about the basis and method as to how the projection is made. Thank you, again for sharing what you have.

Defining a Set of Core Asset Classes

This is a very useful article. It is thoughtful and provokes thinking. A great piece. I have following points, however, to further the dialog.
1. On the one hand you say timing cannot be done and so one must stay invested in multiple widely uncorrelated asset classes. On the other hand, you want to look forward and marginalize history as backward look. Trying to have it both ways?
2. Also, no clue is provided as to how exactly you look forward. What tools are used to look forward and how are they better than other timing tools? Just saying QPP is not enough. You may be holding QPP as a proprietary device, but you would gain credibility if you share at least some philosophy behind it.
3. Thinking about reader comments, the name-calling match between retail and elite was entertaining heat but did not provide much light. The guru stuff was highly speculative. Both timers and non-timers have to resort to past record to justify themselves. It is indeed hard to really discount history. Snap discrediting of it as nothing but looking backward is a bit dogmatic. Its usefulness may be limited but it surely is debatable how to assess it.
4. It is not consistent to talk about cash as wasting asset because of inflation. To be consistent all assets and not just cash should be systematically weighed against inflation. Any way, cash is better than losing your capital. Including it as one of so many others is not a sin at all. It is also important to take advantage of emerging opportunities. It would be simpler and easier to do it if you have cash.
5. You hint at percentage allotment to the asset classes. Would like to know more about the concepts behind this.
All in all, your article is highly beneficial, thoughtful and noteworthy.

Portfolio Theory Vindicated

Not clear what is QPP precisely based on. Unless that is specified, the impression will remain that speculation and hindsight are at work. Why can't the author come up with a brief description of QPP or say that it is proprietary and cannot be revealed?

Percentage of Stocks Above Their 50-DMAs Finally Oversold

Many shorts here. Some even don't know the meaning of the term "oversold" in technical analysis. More knowledgeable comments would be helpful. Any way, the author has a point. Of course more indicators can be and probably should be examined. There is no easy way to sort their cacophony out, if you gather a lot of them. After all, time comes when you have to bet, whether you use technical or fundamental analysis. One point to consider: S&P500 is at the PE ratio of 13, compared to 15 where it was at the bottom of the 2001-02 bear market. Good luck to all!

Outperformers During Declines Not Outperforming During Subsequent Recoveries

Johnson's comment is insightful. IBD, however, also is out of market right now. They have been in and out of market this year quite frequently and, since they never report their performance, it is hard to tell how much money their approach has made.
To be fair, they also recommend leaders that break out in the formation called cup and handle, which avoids stocks that just outperform during corrections and bear moves. Still, when the downturn is over and they are back in the market after a rally is confirmed, I guess some current outperformers will be included in the cup-and-handle breakouts.
IBD approach also always recommends selling any stock that goes down by eight per cent below purchase price. Overall, I am curious if there is any study of IBD's performance. AAII does have a screen for the O'Neal approach but it is an overly simplified version. IBD's approach, on the other hand, is overly complex and highly subjective. It also necessittes reading their paper daily! I've found it hard to follow their approach solely through their basic ideas and strategies because in the paper they always come out with hidden explanations not unlike how companies come out with earnings surprises.

Market Crash Imminent: Get Out While You Can

Averaging past corrections is no argument. Unless there is new considerations, the market has already digested the old reasons of bulls and bears. Since doom and gloom is pretty thick, market may be close to bottoming. But market can do anything, so we'll see. It does seem late, however, to short the market at this point.

Charting the Market's Response To Yesterday's Rate Cut

The narrative was interesting but inconclusive. Just where does the writer think we are going from here, based on the narrative?