I've been writing for the professional press for the last five years and have been on the Fox Business channel several times as a guest describing my written work. In January 2009, I started writing my blog Bruce Krasting (http://brucekrasting.blogspot.com). From 1990-1995 I ran a private hedge fund in Greenwich Ct. called Falconer Limited. Investments were driven by macro developments. We expressed our views in global bonds, currencies, stocks, commodities and derivatives. I closed the fund and retired in 1995. I've also been employed by Drexel Burnham Lambert, Citicorp, Credit Suisse and Irving Trust Corp. I hold a bachelor's degree in economics from Ithaca College and currently live in Westchester, NY.
Michael J. Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets who has worked in New York and London for HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN Amro, Dresdner Bank, and J.P. Morgan Chase. He is also a New York Institute of Finance faculty member and a graduate of Columbia University.
He is the author of When Giants Fall: An Economic Roadmap for the End of the American Era (http://www.economicroadmap.com/), Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes (http://www.financialarmageddon.com/) and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle: An Insider's Guide to Successful Investing in a Changing World (http://tinyurl.com/l3zyp8). Panzner has appeared on or been quoted by CNBC, Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Barron's and other print, radio, and television outlets.
Visit his sites: Financial Armageddon (http://www.financialarmageddon.com/) and When Giants Fall (http://www.economicroadmap.com/)
Please note that I do not read comments posted here, nor respond to messages here. I don't have the time. If you want my attention, you must seek it directly at my blog.
David J. Merkel, CFA — From 2003-2007, I was a leading commentator at the excellent investment website RealMoney.com (http://www.RealMoney.com). Back in 2003, after several years of correspondence, James Cramer invited me to write for the site, and now I write for RealMoney on equity and bond portfolio management, macroeconomics, derivatives, quantitative strategies, insurance issues, corporate governance, etc. My specialty is looking at the interlinkages in the markets in order to understand individual markets better.
I no longer contribute to RealMoney because my work duties have gotten larger, and I began this blog to develop a distinct voice with a wider distribution.
In 2008, I became the Chief Economist and Director of Research of Finacorp Securities (http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=109&STORY=/www/story/02-08-2008/0004752449&EDATE=). Finacorp went into liquidation in June 2010, after which I decided to open my own asset management shop, Aleph Investments, LLC. I manage stock and bond portfolios for clients.
Until 2007, I was a senior investment analyst at Hovde Capital, responsible for analysis and valuation of investment opportunities for the FIP funds, particularly of companies in the insurance industry. I also managed the internal profit sharing and charitable endowment monies of the firm.
Prior to joining Hovde in 2003, I managed corporate bonds for Dwight Asset Management. In 1998, I joined the Mount Washington Investment Group as the Mortgage Bond and Asset Liability manager after working with Provident Mutual, AIG and Pacific Standard Life.
My background as a life actuary has given me a different perspective on investing. How do you earn money without taking undue risk? How do you convey ideas about investing while showing a proper level of uncertainty on the likelihood of success? How do the various markets fit together, telling us us a broader story than any single piece? These are the themes that I will deal with in this blog. I hold bachelor’s and master’s degrees from Johns Hopkins University.
In my spare time, I take care of our eight children with my wonderful wife Ruth. Visit this site: The Aleph Blog (http://alephblog.com/)
I stopped using my given name after threats from local (Florida) newspaper readers. My comments tend to the acerbic as I view much of contemporary "news" to be BS or worse. Background varies, mostly in management of small organizations in Health Care, Construction, Credit, Sales and Research. BA UW - Madison, MS Virigia Tech.
Lifetime voacious reader until stroke in 1994. Amateur trader, lucky in the early years, not so much lately. Retired not by choice.
Disabled VN Veteran. lifetime veterans' advocate.
Thoroughly disgusted with contemorary politics and how our governments at all levels are being run (into the ground).
Worked for Goldwater campaign. Don't recognize most of today's "conseratives" as legit.
David P. Goldman was global head of debt research for Banc of America Securities and earlier global head of credit strategy at Credit Suisse. He was until July 2008 the strategist for a credit hedge fund, Asteri Capital, one of the few credit funds to show a profit between July 2007 and July 2008. He is now Associate Editor of First Things (www.firstthings.com) and a columnist (under the byline "Spengler") for Asia Times Online.
Bad news carries no inertia in the markets, clearly forces are at work that have an agenda disconnected from conventional market wisdom.
Apr 18, 2009
The fact is we may very well be witnessing the end of the US Dollar. It will not go out without a fight, or tomorrow, or until it exhausts every possible means to remain viable. The end could be very bitter for Americans.
October 3, 2009
Edward Harrison is the founder of the blog Credit Writedowns (www.creditwritedowns.com) and is a finance specialist at Global Macro Advisors. Previously, Edward was a strategy and finance executive at Deutsche Bank, Bain, and Yahoo. He started his career as a diplomat and speaks German, Dutch, Swedish, Spanish and French. Edward holds an MBA from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/edwardnh. Contact him at edh at creditwritedowns dot com as that's the only mailbox he reads regularly.
I obtained my CPA in 1990 and became a CFA charter holder in 2000. I consider myself an expert in Quantitative and Qualitative analysis and have extensive experience in Technical Analysis. I also have a deep interest in stock market history and hold degrees in Economics (BSBA) and Management Information Systems (MBA). I have been actively involved with investment analysis and investment management since 1985 but have been a student of investing since the 1960s. I owned my first individual stock position while still in high school. I am a student of Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett. I have achieved a uniquely diverse experience from multiple careers that has allowed me to develop a broad perspective enabling me to look at the big picture of macroeconomics all the way down to the retail unit or factory floor. In my youth I was in retail, then served in reconnaissance during my tours in Vietnam. I have been a blue collar, union worker in a factory and a manager in services, hospitality and transportation as well as a manager of professional staffs. I have more than 20 years of experience each in both public and private sectors. I have personal points of reference that many analysts will never have. I bring more to the table than just the theories and models I have studied or built. To understand more about my investing philosophy please visit my blog on my website.
In the early 1990s, during the middle of a secular bull market, I began work on "A Modern Approach To Graham and Dodd Investing," that was not particularly suited for the decade of the 1990s, but was ideally suited for the following "Lost Decade" of the 2000s.
I am both an economist (three year M.A., Univ. of Chicago, 1968, in economics PhD program) and a lawyer (J.D., Univ. of Chicago, 1971). I had a Woodrow Wilson National Fellowship in economics and the good fortune to study at Chicago under seven Nobel Laureates in economics (received before or after -- Milton Friedman, Robert Mundell, Theodore Schultz, George Stigler, Ronald Coase, Robert Fogel and Gary Becker). I only left economics and the PhD program after finshing the course work and core prelims and contrary to the wishes and advice of Milton Friedman, because having decent grades out of a top law school had much more remunerative prospects then than being an economist. I wanted to return later at some point and finish up, but the opportunity cost was too high.
I practiced law, mostly in a large firm, doing large scale jury litigation all over the country in a broad range of areas for notable and not so notable clients. I also handled appeals. I carefully kept out of politics because my observation has been good trial lawyers make poor politicians, and politicians who return to law are usually not good lawyers -- good lobbyists and influence peddlers perhaps -- but never good trial lawyers. Their concepts of honesty and truth have been debased along with their work ethic.
I believe seriously in economics and have somewhat kept track of the field, although I do not believe all I read. I do not seriously believe in law, although I practiced it quite successfully for thirty years and created significant new law, all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court. I have been investing since the early sixties when gains on airline bonds substantially helped put me through college. I have appeared in past volumes of Marquis, Who’s Who in the World, Who’s Who in America, Who’s Who in American Law, Who’s Who in Finance and Industry and others.
I retired early and have been circumnavigating the world on my own sailboat for the last several years. I survived the tsunami in Pago Pago, American Samoa where my boat suffered minor damage and 112 people died within two miles of me including some friends and left there for New Zealand for repairs but then my electronic autopilot failed in route and I had to hand steer to Neiafu, Vava'u, Tonga. In Tonga then I was directly hit by Cyclone Rene (= hurricane in northern hemisphere) with 95 knot sustained winds and 115 knot gusts, but I was prepared and sustained no damage. I was sheltered in the harbor bay from bad seas but not the winds. I stayed in Tonga for the cyclone season in the South Pacific last year and will spend this cyclone season in American Samoa. I am busily engaged in boat improvements/repairs, basking in the sun, sightseeing on bicycle, writing a bit and I am enjoying photography, too.
Let's see, Veteran (Vietnam era), Commercial Artist, picture framer, industrial engineer & corporate executive (once upon a time), small business owner and operator, Ayn Rand fan, Libertarian (and no, its not a synonym for "Republican" or "Conservative"), and history buff. Serious investor, I need to earn money from my assets, and I'm of the age where I pull money out to help put food on the table. I like to fish, but just as with my investing, I am a "meat fisherman", I only kill what I plan to consume.
Mr. Roche is the founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC, a low fee financial services firm based in San Diego, CA as well as the founder of the popular financial website Pragmatic Capitalism (some articles from Pragmatic Capitalism get syndicated on Seeking Alpha so please see the full site if you don't want to miss articles by Mr. Roche).
Orcam Financial Group, LLC (www.orcamgroup.com) is a low fee financial services firm offering asset management, personal advisory, consulting and educational services. Pragmatic Capitalism (http://pragcap.com) was founded by Cullen Roche in the midst of the financial crisis of 2008. Mr. Roche foresaw many of the events that led up to the crisis and felt that the government was slow to react and when it did finally react, responded with the wrong medicine.
Mr. Roche's primary areas of expertise include global macro portfolio construction, quantitative risk management, monetary economics and behavioral finance. Prior to establishing his own business, Mr. Roche worked at Merrill Lynch Global Wealth Management where he worked on a team overseeing $500MM+ in assets under management. Upon leaving Merrill Lynch, Mr. Roche managed a private investment partnership for 7 years generating substantial positive alpha (high risk adjusted returns) without a single negative year of returns. He has since transitioned back to retail asset management to better serve the much needed low fee retail space with sophisticated but simple asset management and financial planning services.
Mr. Roche is also a prolific writer. In addition to the daily musings on his website, he is the author of the popular book “Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Know About Money and Finance” as well as “Understanding the Modern Monetary System”, one of the top 10 all-time most downloaded research papers on the SSRN academic research network. He was named one of the “Top Wall Street Economists, Experts and Opinion Leaders” of 2011 by Wall Street Economists and was named one of the “101 Best Finance People” by Business Insider where he was described as “one of the most influential economic thinkers today.” In 2015 Mr. Roche was named one of the “40 Under 40” most influential people in finance by InvestmentNews. He is regularly cited in the Wall Street Journal, on CNBC and in the Financial Times.
Mr. Roche is a Georgetown University alumnus, growing up in the DC area and now living in Southern California with his wife Erica, troublesome collie Cal and 4 irritable laying hens. In addition to being a financial dork Cullen is an avid outdoorsman, mediocre gardener, proficient complex carbohydrate consumer (i.e., loves brownies and cake) and finisher of one of the most difficult IRONMAN races at Cabo in 2015.
Michael J. Clark was born and raised in Sinclair, Wyoming. He is a poet, novelist, artist, historian, and market analyst.
He began investing in 1985. He read ˜The Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" by Edwards and Magee and was hooked. From 1985-1987 he made astonishing gains in the stock market; and then stocks collapsed in 1987. Since then he has been attempting to 'solve the stock market', with many failures and some successes. The system he developed, called CGTS, Clark's Gate Timining System, is algorithm-based. What this fancy word means is that he proposes a series of necessary steps based on technical analysis propositions, which, when met, trigger trading signals. His four main trading systems are up a combined 31% for 2015.
From his website:
Now that QE is supposedly ending, markets are already becoming more tradable, with opportunities to make money on both long and short trades at the same time. QE tended to make all boats rise, except precious metals. This made it more difficult to play the short side of the markets. Now, both sides seem to be more accessible to successful trades. This will also be more of a challenge for investors. The FED will have to eventually abandon the markets to their own destinies, and stop spending trillions to protect investors AND corporations from their mistakes. As this begins to happen (I am not sure it has happened yet), informed advice will become even more necessary for investors.
Rules of Investment
Rule #1: Never go against the trend. The majority is often wrong; but the minority is often wrong also. The sticky issue with this advice is at transition points, at which a Bull Market turns into a Bear Market or vice-versa. Big Money often anticipates and/or causes this transition. So pay attention to what Big Money is really doing, not what they say they are doing.
Rule #2: You don’t need a broker who makes his living off of your money. Most brokerage firms buy a position in a stock quietly and slowly. When the stock has appreciated significantly they add the stock to their buy recommendations. Then they begin selling their position while they are encouraging their clients to buy the stock. Most firms never issue sell recommendations. If they do, beware: they are probably trying to buy your stock after a huge sell-off.
Rule #3: Watch your own emotions because they are often signaling something. When fear turns to greed and visions of unlimited wealth, we are probably near a top in a trade and we should get ready to sell. When hope and denial turn to fear and visions of an unlimited loss, we are probably approaching a bottom in a trade. (See Rule #1 however.)
Rule #4: Trade with a system to complement your gut reactions. Follow the system no matter what, even if it means taking a loss. Don’t get lazy with your money and sink into denial. Use a system to help you refrain from 'playing a hunch'.
Rule #5: HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIO AGAINST LOSSES. How does one do this? By having a balanced portfolio of long and short positions. But have a system that signals both long and short positions, and keep your portfolio balanced around 50% long and 50% short. This may seem to contradict Rule #1. It does not. When something is in a long trend, something else is in a short trend. Find what is long and what is short. If stocks are long, gold or oil may be short. Use ETFs and options to help establish this portfolio balance. Our system gives trading signals every day for both long and short positions.
More information on CGTS is available at:
His fine arts portfolio can be found at the following address:
His writing portfolio can be found at:
Those interested in his book "Turn Out the Lights", a description of the metaphysical causes of the 2008 financial meltdown, can access the draft at:
Michael Clark has retired after working 30 years in academia, relocated to Hanoi, Vietnam for six years, and has returned to America in 2014.
Marvin R. Clark is the Managing Principal of Monsoon Wealth Management (MWM). Monsoon offers affluent individuals and business owners’ wealth management, economic, and market advice throughout America.
Based in Scottsdale, Arizona, Monsoon’s major task is employing a macroeconomic top-down research and analysis approach to formulate a relative value investment thesis across debt, equity, and commodity asset classes. We provide an actionable roadmap during this extraordinary period as geo-political and economic change accelerates.
Prior to opening Monsoon Wealth Management in 2007, Marvin spent 10 years in the capital markets, fixed income division, of Charles Schwab & Co. Before Schwab, he spent 15 years on Wall Street with The Pilgrim Group, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley.
Marvin is the publisher/author of the Fixed Income Daily, a financial blog dedicated to providing essays and video clips from various analysts, money managers and officials, shedding light on the economy and markets.
He is a contributing author with over 9,800 captive subscribers to the premier award-winning stock market opinion and analysis - Seeking Alpha and a contributing columnist for the Dubai-based, bi-lingual, Alorrya.com.
Marvin is a popular featured and keynote speaker throughout the southwest and a recent guest faculty member for A.T. Kearney with Institute for Supply Management’s The Center for Strategic Supply Leadership CSSL forum.
His unique interpretation of macroeconomic data and smooth writing style has been a reference source online for many financial newsletters including Yahoo Finance, Reuters, MarketWatch, Blogrunner, istockanalyst, The New York Times, Real Clear Markets, Kiplinger’s, and many, many others.
Mr. Hui has been involved in the equity markets since 1980, both on the buy side and the sell side. He is a CFA Charterholder, and has presented numerous papers to quantitative discussion groups (Sample topics include: How Global are Resource Sectors).
AI is a unique, value-added, independent advisory service focused on uncovering select, under-researched Special Situations in the natural resources industry. Particular focus is on gold, silver, oil, natural gas and agriculture.
AI utilizes rigorous analysis & numerous analytical frameworks to synthesize asymmetric information in the natural resources industry, and to distill attractive investment opportunities.
AI follows a a value-oriented investment approach while taking a medium-to-long-term investment perspective. Adherence to risk management is a core principle to AI's approach.
AI is targeted toward sophisticated investors.
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