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  • General Electric: It Is What It Is [View article]
    "Don't you think it's a little weird that you have this inability to accept that someone has a different opinion than yours?"

    You're offering an "opinion" that a scientific theory is wrong.
    Your opinion regarding this scientific theory or any other is worthless.
    You have done no research' you have zero background that would allow you to opine whether climate change theory is accurate or not. All you are doing is mouthing words from unknown people that fit your preconceived bias.

    When you go to the dentist because of pain in your mouth and the dentist says, 'Hey David, you have a cavity, and I need to fill it' do you jump up and say 'Hey doc, I HAVE A DIFFERENT OPINON, SOMEONE ON TV SAID YOU DENTISTS ARE JUST TRYING TO GET RICH' or do you think, 'jeez, this guy is a professional, he knows what he's doing and I'll take his advice and have the cavity filled.'
    Comparing that hypothetical to climate change research, what's the difference? Are you going to get your opinion from the tv or from people who have done this research?
    I don't know from any personal knowledge or experience that world wide climate change is occurring. I've done no personal research. I lack the background and expertise to have an "opinion". Just as I would depend upon that dentist to accurately tell me what the source of that mouth pain is, I depend upon climate scientists (doctors also, by an large ) to tell me if and why the climate is changing.
    How are you in a different position than me?

    May 1, 2015. 11:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric: It Is What It Is [View article]
    David, how in the world would you possibly know that "global warming, is at best, faulty science"????? Do you have an advanced degree in climate research or do you just do 'foxoligy 101' on a daily basis?
    There was a "massive fear about the coming ice age just 20 years ago"????
    Here's what I found doing about thirty seconds of research:
    "The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty, which extends the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) that commits State Parties to reduce greenhouse gases emissions, based on the premise that (a) global warming exists and (b) man-made CO2 emissions have caused it."
    Honestly, the level of insight and depth that some people demonstrate.
    I wonder how they manage to function day-to-day.
    May 1, 2015. 10:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Learning From The Masters: Q&A Session With Buyandhold 2012 [View article]
    Dave, in no way could my remarks be construed as a 'personal attack'. That would violate the rules governing comments on S.A. If you really feel that I have violated these rules, make a complaint to the editors.
    Re: 'Buyandholds' 'personal issues': This article, in case you missed it, is an interview of this "master" and he put his "personal issues" out into the public forum, presumably for comment.
    He has advised that hypothetical young investor essentially to 'buy and never sell'. I'm critical of that advice and have clearly expressed why in the above comments. Why is this a problem for you?
    Apr 28, 2015. 10:37 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Learning From The Masters: Q&A Session With Buyandhold 2012 [View article]
    It's not that easy, Nicholas. "never having to sell to enjoy the fruits of his labor"? What does that even mean? If, in each of the last five years of this man's life, he consumes three to four percent of his net worth and dies a multi-millionaire, how has he, in any sense of the phrase, fully "enjoyed the fruits of his labor"? Either he has worked too long and/or he has under consumed his assets.
    In addition, the rational that he wants to leave a fortune to his "loved ones" is the ultimate copout, in my opinion. Unless your "loved ones" are somehow incapacitated and unable to make their way in life, it's a thin rational to save and save and save, sometimes far past the necessity of securing a reasonable retirement under the guise of leaving it to loved ones who are probably fully capable of securing their own retirement funds.
    'Compounding' of assets is a sort of cruel joke. The real effect of compounding takes place in the last two doublings or so at ages that may well range beyond that retirement date. It's a lazy out to say: work 'till I have the dividends coming in to pay for my retirement, never sell.
    For the heirs of 'Buyandhold2012' it may be a question of inheriting 3 mill vs. 2.5 mill if 'Buyandhold2012' had really thought it through and calculated the appropriate date of retirement instead of avoiding the questions: how much do I need? how much will I have? When do I want to retire?
    The advice of 'Buyandhold2012' to that young investor can be summed up as: 'Save, save, save, die rich'. How would anyone think that appropriate?
    Apr 27, 2015. 10:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Learning From The Masters: Q&A Session With Buyandhold 2012 [View article]
    "Buy these stocks whenever they are relatively cheap. Never sell them"

    So . . . just so I understand this advice to the hypothetical young investor. That young person, presumably working and receiving a paycheck, should take part of that paycheck (paper that represents his precious time) and invest it with the goal of never consuming it?
    His goal should be to work longer in order to fulfill the mantra "buy and hold"?
    He should retire at a later point in life with the goal of only spending three to four percent yearly of the (and this is an important concept, so listen up) STORE OF VALUE OF HIS INVESTMENTS?
    It's really not much different a circumstance than walking into someone's home, who has had a lifetime subscription to the local paper, and finding all the issues still there stacked floor to ceiling. After all, it's paper, he 'bought and held', and when he dies it will have exactly the same value to him as 'Buyandhold 2012's' stock certificates.
    Apr 27, 2015. 04:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal: An Assessment Of Its Long-Term Runway [View article]
    Coal is a very "cyclical market"? Well, ok, I can see a rational for claiming that . . . but the depression in the coal industry is not reflective of any cycle but more connotes the pressure put upon it by cheaper alternatives and the EPA, who, quite properly in my opinion, wants to reduce both pollution and CO2 emissions (you know, climate change?) This double threat to the coal industry should make it a no-go zone for investors. There are many, many, sub-five dollar stocks that would be better bets.
    Arch coal will continue to exist. They will dig for coal, load it onto train cars and ship it off to utilities. That's not going to change. What will change is the current crop of shareholders, bond holders, and perhaps, many existing employees.
    Apr 25, 2015. 09:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric: It Is What It Is [View article]
    The observation is that our climate is changing at an accelerated rate.
    The hypothesis of why this is happening was that CO2 releases into the atmosphere are also accelerating.
    The fact is that much of the sudden increase in CO2 levels (sudden in geological time) is due to burning of carbon: coal, oil, natural gas. We know this to be true. Burning carbon releases CO2.
    This hypothesis, after much study and testing, has graduated into being regarded as 'theory', like the 'theory' of natural selection or the 'theory' of universal gravitation. It doesn't get higher than 'theory' in the scientific method. A 'theory' in science is not the same as you or I having a 'theory' as in 'Well, science says one thing, but I have my own theory'.
    I don't really care if someone, like you, 'making money off the deaths of Americans smoking cigarettes', has a degree. I'm not really interested in the opinion of those who have degrees in the applicable science, in this case, atmospheric physics. I am interested in the opinion of those who have done the direct research on the data that forms the theory that the climate is warming. The overwhelming consensus in that group is that, yes, CO2 releases are increasing, yes, most of that increase is driven by the burning of fossil fuels, yes, CO2 in the atmosphere acts to trap heat that would otherwise be radiating out into space, and, yes, the heating that is occurring will produce big changes that will dramatically affect our lives in this century.
    I depend upon scientists to do research and provide reasons (theories) why something is the way it is; just as I depend upon an auto mechanic to diagnose and fix a problem with my car. I lack both the experience and the intellectual resources to challenge a scientific theory. As do you.
    Being smart, having degrees and/or work experience, doesn't make you qualified to opine on everything. If you had a headache and a C.A.T. scan showed a mass in your skull, would you go to a proctologist for an opinion about course of action? Well, why not? Proctologists are doctors too. They're smart and they may have an opinion just like that brain surgeon.
    Whose opinion should carry the weight?

    Apr 23, 2015. 09:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric: It Is What It Is [View article]
    "Since they got into bed with the Obama administration" ??????

    From the first couple of months of the Obama administration till now the value of GE stock just about quadrupled with the dividend included.
    You must hate money as much as you hate Obama.
    Apr 22, 2015. 01:45 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • So You Think You Are Diversified? [View article]
    The issue of diversification is an interesting one. For the investor into individual stocks it's more than holding a certain quantity of companies.
    Some considerations:
    It's balance within your holdings. If you own 300 JPM and 10 IBM are you really diversified into 'tech' and 'finance' with a 10 to 1 ratio of dollars invested?
    If your holdings are many in number but restricted to a couple of industries out of dozens of possibilities, are you properly diversified?
    What about geographic diversification? Does one have to be worldwide in their investments in order to be diversified? Does that suggest more multi-national companies if one wants to stick to U.S. listed companies? Should that investor be in companies in other-than-dollar denominated currencies?
    What about time diversification? If an investor throws all his capital into stocks at one time, no matter how many stocks, industries, currencies, is he properly diversified?
    If you own positions in fifty companies are you only ten percent as diversified as owning the SPY, a proxy for five hundred companies?
    Apr 20, 2015. 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why An Income Portfolio Beats Capital Gains Every Time [View article]
    This article is one of a long series posted by dividend growth investors (DGI) that suggests holding onto your capital and consuming only the dividend provides superior results. The title of the article suggests this is always the case.
    The job of any investor is more complicated than what is proposed by the author. It is oft suggested 'time is money' but the opposite is also true: 'money is time'; or more accurately, money is a store of your time and to go to your grave consuming only, what? Perhaps three to four percent of your capital each year in the form of dividends? The investor has essentially squandered that store of time. That investor has either worked too long or under consumed his assets.
    There are two elements to investing for retirement: the accumulation phase and the distribution phase. How one consumes his personal 'store of time' deserves more consideration than I see the DGI'ers giving it.
    Apr 19, 2015. 01:40 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reviewing My Decision To Purchase Freeport-McMoRan [View article]
    Johnny, "what would then be the current price" refers to the price of the common stock of FCX. Today the stock closed at 20.67, a 9% pop. The call options underlying FCX gained a lot of value today and there might be some merit in selling calls against your common stock position.
    Not only did the options with strike prices at 21 and above gain some reasonable time value as FCX rose in price, they gained some extra value because FCX rose so quickly in value. (Remember, the stock is at 20.67 so options with strikes at 21 and above have no intrinsic value, only time value!) Those investors bidding up the price of these calls are thinking '9%!! Maybe it will go up 9% tomorrow!!' of course, it almost never does. That what makes a covered call sale particularly attractive; that sharp move upward in the underlying common.
    I would sell calls @ approximate strikes of 24, 25, 26 and approximate time frame, July through about October. You should have at least 300 shares to make it worth the commissions. I see an October '14, 24 strike selling for @ .70. I have 1,000 FCX and would gross $700. Not the most exciting trade I've ever made, but not bad either.
    Hope this helps. Keep in mind that even with three successful option sales (two call, one put) I'm still sitting on about an $11,000 loss total. At this point I'm not in much of a position to be lecturing anyone in how to invest in FCX!!
    Apr 15, 2015. 09:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric: A Golden Dividend Growth Opportunity Is Never Offered Twice [View article]
    I laid out my reasons for why a div increase should be expected in December. GE's announcement that it would hold the div at current levels is not any sort of legal commitment; they can change their minds.
    It seems to me that the same rational that investors are applying to the notion that they will not raise in '15 is applicable to 2014 when they did raise . . . one penny a quarter. This former div champion raised a paltry penny because they want to be seen as a company that raises the payout year to year. I might be wrong. Not wishful thinking tho. When I wish, it's for bigger things than penny increases in dividends : ).
    At present price, $28.50 or so, GE is not a buy. I'm going to hold it for now but I don't see it continuing this move upward.
    Apr 12, 2015. 11:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wind Investment Opportunities In The U.S. [View article]
    My girlfriend hassled me to buy Vestas a few years ago, symbol VWSYF. We bought 200 shares on a Friday @ 17. It popped the next Monday to 21.
    My friend: "see, see, I was right!!" Then it slumped below 5 in a few months.
    Me: "see, see, you were wrong". Then it went to 60.
    Her: "You are an idiot". Then it went to 20.
    Me: "I am not an idiot" Then it went to 30 where we purchased 200 more shares.
    Now 45. Earns some money, pays a modest div. Too pricey here but like other high flyers the sky could be the limit.
    GE might be a better way to play this although it will never be a big enough segment to really move the stock should the wind really start to blow.
    Thanks for the article
    Apr 12, 2015. 02:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric: A Golden Dividend Growth Opportunity Is Never Offered Twice [View article]
    Of course, Rich, we're making bets on the internet with people we don't know so a dollar is about all I can go on this one. My conviction level on an increase? Hard to measure but This former dividend champion raised the dividend 7 times in the last five years, never outside of that four quarter limit. I think, and this applies to other fallen dividend stalwarts as well, that GE has something to prove to investors and fully realizes that many of those investors are looking for income, steadily increasing income, and will not disappoint them in December.
    I'm not a GE pumper. It's more of a 'playground' stock for me and I will play it below 30 as long as it stays there. Good luck with your investing!
    Apr 12, 2015. 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric: A Golden Dividend Growth Opportunity Is Never Offered Twice [View article]
    You say they won't have the cash flow and then conflate 'cash flow' with 'earnings'. They are separate numbers. I've looked at two sources (TD and VL) for recent past earnings and projected earnings and they both range from @ $1.30 to $1.80 from years 2011 through 2016. Yes, the estimates will change downward, it's unknown how much but if the financial arm is quickly sold there will also be ample cash for a modest increase in the div.
    Put me on the record! I'm callin' it, right here, right now! A one penny increase in the div at their December, '15 meeting!
    Now, I have to say, this increase doesn't matter one bit towards my feelings about GE. I hold 1,221 shares @ 25.44. I have a current call sale out there as of Friday, the Jan. '16 32 strike calls sold for .30. If I lose GE @ 32 I will have exited a somewhat overpriced stock. If I still hold GE I will continue to sell calls until I do. I'm not a GE cheerleader. I just want to make some money!
    Apr 12, 2015. 01:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment