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billa_from_sf

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  • Axion Power Concentrator 159: Oct. 04, 2012: 13th ELBC: Axion's "Operational Stability Of PbC Batteries And Battery Systems", John Petersen's "Rising To The Micro-Hybrid Challenge", Brishwain's Notes [View instapost]
    Reading between your informative lines, John, what I am hearing is that one of these days all of us here on this instablog are going to be banging our heads against the wall asking why we were too chicken to back up the truck when AXPW was in the basement.

    My only consolation will be that after a couple of years of patiently waiting in the red, I will be in the money on paper at least and will be able to start worrying about what my exit price should be!

    I don't know about you, but IMO playing the stock market, despite the occasional amazing payday, is a terrible way to make a living. It's impossible to know with certainty what the heck to do.

    That said, I hasten to add that Axion is looking like a better and better bet every quarter, as you laid out.
    Oct 8 11:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 159: Oct. 04, 2012: 13th ELBC: Axion's "Operational Stability Of PbC Batteries And Battery Systems", John Petersen's "Rising To The Micro-Hybrid Challenge", Brishwain's Notes [View instapost]
    Thanks, Jon.

    My only complaint about my position is that it is still a bit too small.

    I have no problem at all sleeping at night and am trying to spend as little cash as possible to round it out.

    I was tempted under 0.27, as you were, but having tried to "catch a falling knife" without success before, I decided to wait until after we bottomed.

    Now it appears we have, and I am too cheap to buy at 0.30!

    I guess the bottom line is that there is no way to get the perfect price.
    One of these days I'll buy the shares I am waiting for, and that will be that.

    Congratulations to you on your purchase.
    Oct 8 10:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 159: Oct. 04, 2012: 13th ELBC: Axion's "Operational Stability Of PbC Batteries And Battery Systems", John Petersen's "Rising To The Micro-Hybrid Challenge", Brishwain's Notes [View instapost]
    Re accumulating on a raise as a retail investor:

    Retail price generally drops when an offering is announced, and I have taken advantage of that on several occasions with some stocks I've owned to buy cheap shares.
    Oct 8 05:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 159: Oct. 04, 2012: 13th ELBC: Axion's "Operational Stability Of PbC Batteries And Battery Systems", John Petersen's "Rising To The Micro-Hybrid Challenge", Brishwain's Notes [View instapost]
    Thanks, John.

    My strategy, impatient as I am, is to wait for the next raise and accumulate more then.

    I was strongly tempted to buy near the recent bottom because pps looked so good, but as I said in my original post, I was too darned chicken to take advantage of a golden opportunity.

    Your explanation of how much pressure the big sellers put on pps in previous raises makes a lot of sense. I'm pretty sure that if we test 0.27 again, I will snatch a block or two despite my plan to wait.
    Oct 8 05:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 159: Oct. 04, 2012: 13th ELBC: Axion's "Operational Stability Of PbC Batteries And Battery Systems", John Petersen's "Rising To The Micro-Hybrid Challenge", Brishwain's Notes [View instapost]
    And if the next raise is an offering, whatever discount I can buy at will be fine with me.

    I just feel caught on the horns of a dilemma here, where I don't know which way pps is going to be pushed next quarter.
    Oct 8 04:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 159: Oct. 04, 2012: 13th ELBC: Axion's "Operational Stability Of PbC Batteries And Battery Systems", John Petersen's "Rising To The Micro-Hybrid Challenge", Brishwain's Notes [View instapost]
    Sorry, John.

    Our experience and knowledge levels are so different that I look like a troll to you.

    I personally would feel more comfortable knowing how Axion's next raise is going to work. If it turns out to be a partnership, I will wind up having to pay a premium having passed on the opportunity to buy more under 0.26 or 0.27.

    I bought 20,000 shares at ~0.30 on 8/16 and got my average down to 0.48. The dip below that took me by surprise, and left me not as sure as you are, because I don't know as much as you do, that we won't dip again.

    I hate to pay a premium, but I would feel more confident about my next purchase if a strategic deal were in place.

    That's just me. I actually come here to learn from people who know more than I do. Anyone who looks to my reading of a situation for guidance is listening to the wrong person.
    Oct 8 04:17 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 159: Oct. 04, 2012: 13th ELBC: Axion's "Operational Stability Of PbC Batteries And Battery Systems", John Petersen's "Rising To The Micro-Hybrid Challenge", Brishwain's Notes [View instapost]
    Looks like we might have bottomed.

    I was too chicken to buy more in the 0.25's, and looking back I wish I had. I'm trying to get my position up to 100,000 shares and am determined to buy as close to the bottom as I can.

    I've been holding out since my last buy because if the raise next quarter comes via an offering as opposed to a partnership, I think I might be able to get some for .20 or less, 0.10 ideally.

    I'm thinking 10.00 should be doable by 2015 if we get at least one SS contract, make more locomotive deals, or the HUB or the PowerCube or behind-the-meter takes off.
    Oct 8 03:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 159: Oct. 04, 2012: 13th ELBC: Axion's "Operational Stability Of PbC Batteries And Battery Systems", John Petersen's "Rising To The Micro-Hybrid Challenge", Brishwain's Notes [View instapost]
    HT:

    I don't claim to know anything about HFT, but I have observed with my own eyes, watching Level 2, a computer at one exchange running up volume on a thinly traded stock by trading with itself for net zero dollars.

    I assumed at the time that it was running up volume to suck in spectators who scan charts looking for action.

    I've also seen, frequently, no-name stocks' price run up out of the blue only to drop precipitously, apparently when some humans scanning the charts jumped on board.

    Computers are not necessarily dependent on existing volume or existing price moves, IMO. They create them out of whole cloth to suck in money from the sidelines.

    Trends are another story.

    Sustaining a phony spike up or down for more than a few minutes or hours seems like it would be hard to do. That I think is why that guy told me that long-term investing can still make you money if you buy good companies and hold them.
    Oct 7 01:53 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 159: Oct. 04, 2012: 13th ELBC: Axion's "Operational Stability Of PbC Batteries And Battery Systems", John Petersen's "Rising To The Micro-Hybrid Challenge", Brishwain's Notes [View instapost]
    I wonder if the posters who are trying to rationalize AXPW price action have been taking into account that 60% of trading these days is by HFT computers trading with each other.

    I met a programmer who develops HFT algorithms about a year ago in San Francisco, and he told me that knowing what he knows, he would not trade stocks.

    I didn't ask him what he knows, but I assume that the algorithms these guys develop are tuned to manipulate short-term pps with little or no reference to fundamentals.

    He did agree that long-term investing still can make you money if you buy good companies, but trading against HFT algorithms is a guaranteed losing proposition.
    Oct 7 02:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 159: Oct. 04, 2012: 13th ELBC: Axion's "Operational Stability Of PbC Batteries And Battery Systems", John Petersen's "Rising To The Micro-Hybrid Challenge", Brishwain's Notes [View instapost]
    He only had 4,000 shares of AVII, which became 666 shares of SRPT. Better than a sharp stick in the eye, but not a king's ransom either.
    Oct 4 03:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 159: Oct. 04, 2012: 13th ELBC: Axion's "Operational Stability Of PbC Batteries And Battery Systems", John Petersen's "Rising To The Micro-Hybrid Challenge", Brishwain's Notes [View instapost]
    The letter to shareholders looks like a blatant pump to me, trying to boost pps in advance of a raise.

    Nothing personal against AXPW, in which I am heavily invested. You just see run-ups into a raise all the time.

    UL approval of the HUB would be good for pps, as would surprisingly good hub sales numbers in Q1 2013 (assuming UL come through soon).

    Solid news on any of Axion's other initiatives would be good, and of course making serious, reportable SS progress with a major auto manufacturer could bump us near or over a dollar overnight.

    A friend of mine bought AVII at premium a few years ago, held it down to 50 cents, held it through a 1:6 reverse split, held it through a name change to SRPT, and sold it yesterday for 43 dollars.

    If you have guts and believe in a company, the time to buy is when nobody wants anything to do with it.
    Oct 4 02:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 157: Sep. 30, 2012: 13th ELBC: Axion's "Operational Stability Of PbC Batteries And Battery Systems", John Petersen's "Rising To The Micro-Hybrid Challenge", Brishwain's Notes [View instapost]
    I apologize for asking this question three times, but no one has noticed it yet and given me an answer. I apologize also for not being able to find the answer for myself.

    Does anyone know how operating temperature range for PbC batteries compares with the operating temperature range for AGM batteries?

    The reason I ask is that the Leaf EV, I believe it was, had problems in AZ because extreme heat was wearing out its batteries too fast.

    Assuming SS goes to AZ, a question in my mind is whether on a temperature basis, all other considerations aside, PbC has an advantage in extreme heat over AGM.

    Thanks.
    Oct 2 02:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 156: Sep. 28, 2012: John Petersen's Presentation, "Rising To The Micro-Hybrid Challenge" At The 13th ELBC, Sep. 2012 & Brishwain's Notes On His Visit [View instapost]
    Thanks to all for answering my manufacturing questions.

    I am still hoping someone has an answer to my temperature question:

    Does anyone have data on how PbC operating temperature range compares to AGM operating temperature range?

    Thanks.
    Sep 28 01:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 156: Sep. 28, 2012: John Petersen's Presentation, "Rising To The Micro-Hybrid Challenge" At The 13th ELBC, Sep. 2012 & Brishwain's Notes On His Visit [View instapost]
    Manufacturing question #2.

    Is Axion's manufacturing plant ISO certified (meaning that the quality of their manufactured product falls within narrow limits and is reproducible)?

    Thanks.
    Sep 28 09:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 156: Sep. 28, 2012: John Petersen's Presentation, "Rising To The Micro-Hybrid Challenge" At The 13th ELBC, Sep. 2012 & Brishwain's Notes On His Visit [View instapost]
    Manufacturing question.

    Does anyone have a link to documentation that Axion has the technical capability --- as opposed to the floor space --- to manufacture large quantities of carbon anodes?
    Sep 28 09:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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