TonyNed

Interesting, balanced profile of high-frequency trading in MIT's Technology Review. According to one trader: "We create order. When the markets are disorderly, we make a lot of money, but we are doing it by restoring the markets to order."

I don't think it's comparable to your examples. Systemic Risk? This is not comparable to a bank leveraging 40 to 1 and loading up with assets doomed to plummet in value. The market moves in smooth momentum waves and it sounds like they help smooth the deviations. If they are contributing to the predictability in the market's movements then I say you're a fool for opposing it. Just because the market has evolved beyond your abilities as an investor does not mean that it is the flawed element. Diversification and hedging are bad? You are a fool!


On Dec 23 02:14 PM Jolly_Rancher wrote:

> The original purpose of financial markets is to provide an avenue
> for investors to buy into businesses. The purpose is to afford someone
> with money the opportunity to take risk and enjoy the profits. What
> we have now is a joke. There are all sorts of aberrations: short
> selling, day trading, program trading, diversification and hedging
> -- none of which is based on company fundamentals. Each of these
> areas opens our markets to system risk. Remember junk bond diversification
> in the 1980s? Program trading in 1987? Hedging (interest rate and
> credit default swaps) in 2008? If you don't want to take the risk,
> don't invest.

Today in Commodities: Crouching Tiger Hidden Commodity

Alot of commodity stocks are nearing oversold conditions while the dollar is nearing the top of it's momentum wave. It looks like we may get a little Santa Claus rally next week if we don't get any horrible news.

Today in Commodities: Looking for More Evidence

I would buy the USO tomorrow. It will pop.

Today in Commodities: What a Difference a Day Makes

This market is perplexing. It's not behaving normally and it looks toppy. Today's recovery off of the lows looks promising however why the strong selloff after the positive unemployment data? The dollar? The dollar doesn't usually interupt trends, the trends seem to flow with the dollar. Peaks in stocks seem to correlate smoothly with inflection points in the dollars short term flucations. I'm playing normal daily momentum trades but today's selloff seems to have compounded the oversold conditions yesterday. When I say oversold, I'm talking in terms of 30 and 60 minute duration charts. Alot of things should have gone up today but sold off strongly. The S&P wasn't overbought yet it sold off strongly. What is going on? I'm currently scratching my head and I have found that when things don't make sense then I need to get out quickly. But I feel that the bias is towards the upside. Looking at the daily chart of the S&P looks alot like a top before a bullish to bearish market reversal but the momentum appears to be consolidating and the RSI is diverging and moving lower while the price action moves sideways. This is typically bearish. Stay cautious people.

Equities Update: Stocks Snap 3-Day Slide

VIX has bottomed and the markets momentum is topping. There is a reversal brewing. Todays rally faded in alot of the commodity plays after the opening bell.

Cramer's Mad Money - Agriculture's Busting Out All Over (11/17/09)

It's pretty funny that he is saying to buy these stocks when if you look at the momentum indicators they are extremely overbought and today's price action started to tip the momentum slope downward. This is fairly typical with his calls. I don't know what this means and I don't want to speculate.

Today in Commodities: Crowded at the Top

The USO is a buy tomorrow. Short term momentum has bottomed. The US Dollar looks like this latest bounce has just begun. I would anticipate it to continue strengthening for at least next week if not longer.

Today in Commodities: All Eyes on the Greenback

The USD was up fairly strong today but stocks still managed to eake out a gain. Commodity stocks were strong today too. Very curious price action. Commodities stocks look oversold per multiple short duration charts. I think short POT and MOS for a quick in and out trade may be lucrative. Today should be the beginning of the dollar's next uptrend.

Today in Commodities: Risk Trade Back

The dollar is bottoming at this latest cycle. I would avoid any dollar corelated trades for awhile. If there is anymore juice left in this uptrend, I think you would be foolish to attempt to grab it. Everything looks toppy. The transports are toppy and look ready to correct. If they sell off tomorrow, they will have failed to make a higher high. All the talking heads on CNBC are claiming this rally extends but everything looks so overextended, I'm skeptical.

Wednesday Options Recap

Ugh, SBLK has a horrible chart. I would run away from that stock.

The DRYS bearish call is perplexing. I can see some slight weakness short term, maybe an intraday sell off tomorrow into Friday but the technicals are telling me that there is much more room to run.

Monday Options Recap

The MCD put buying is interesting. It is overextended on the RSI but it's missing confirmation stochastically. I think you could wait another session or two and get a better price for the puts.

Today in Commodities: Strength vs. Dollar Weakness

I think you can get long Nat Gas right here for a strong profit. It has set a short term bottom technically. Everything else (oil, gold, silver) is a mess chartwise and you fellas can opine all day long and try to justify your guesses. I personally don't like guessing. Right now, Nat Gas is the only play in town.

Friday Roundup: Ask Alice, I Think She Knows

Let me just add that the 30 minute is telling me that Monday may see some weakness in the steel names so don't claim victory because of that since it will be short lived. AND taking a look at your weekly chart shows that the steel names are extremely close to oversold conditions which is a historical base for a rally. Hmmm.


On Nov 08 08:18 PM TonyNed wrote:

> The steel reversal sign is questionable. The daily chart says the
> opposite of what you're saying. It looks like the past three session
> movements just pushed several of the steel names out of oversold
> conditions and far too early to push lower. Short selling would be
> ill advised until momentum starts showing signs of reversing. There
> is currently no technical evidence that this is the correct trade
> yet.
>
> The charts are saying that any potential reversal won't be coming
> for at least a couple more sessions.

Friday Roundup: Ask Alice, I Think She Knows

The steel reversal sign is questionable. The daily chart says the opposite of what you're saying. It looks like the past three session movements just pushed several of the steel names out of oversold conditions and far too early to push lower. Short selling would be ill advised until momentum starts showing signs of reversing. There is currently no technical evidence that this is the correct trade yet.

The charts are saying that any potential reversal won't be coming for at least a couple more sessions.


On Nov 07 10:05 PM Michael Clark wrote:

> Sorry to post twice.
>
> In my instablog for this weekened, I'm seeing a LOT of sell signals
> and a lot more shortsell signals.
>
> seekingalpha.com/insta...

Today in Commodities: Gearing Up for NFP

Oil is headed higher. I think we may have another few sessions of consolidation but the momentum is on the bottom half of the downward range with an imminent reversal upwards.